Russia's invasion of Ukraine: Part 5

feralnomad35 said:I hear you, but honestly, we aren't facing a 50% shortage; it’s more like 10%. It feels like this whole thing has been blown way out of proportion. Part of it is probably just the Russians pumping up the fear because they see it as their one big lifeline, and part of it is just vultures—you know, journalists and speculators making a killing off the volatility on the exchanges. Sure, things are tight and we definitely need to adjust how we live, but we aren't staring down some kind of total apocalypse here.

And if you look at the long game, I don't see why production costs in Africa wouldn't be competitive with Russia—if anything, they might even end up being lower.

At the end of the day, this whole era of energy blackmail really needs to come to an end.

Back between 2010 and 2012, massive amounts of oil and gas were discovered in the Donbas and near Crimea, which led to Shell signing a $10 billion deal with Ukraine by 2013. The long-term play was supposed to be up to $50 billion.
If they can kick the Russians out, Ukraine becomes a major source for oil and gas in the long run.

The real issue here is that Germany is running seriously low on Dugorono gas. Without that Russian supply, they’re basically stuck—it’s a total standstill. They need just as much volume as the rest of the European Union does. There's a chance they might start looking into buying Ukrainian gas instead. I mean, the pipelines are already there.

electricsurfer47 said:Can someone drop a link here?

The one saying Ukrainians could be supplying gas to Europe as soon as next month? Honestly, that sounds totally surreal.

I was chatting with this Ukrainian woman about it, and she basically thinks the big deposits are sitting right there near Donbas and Crimea.

Nah, I was more just hinting that if this offensive actually clears out the occupiers, all those gas and oil facilities on Ukrainian soil that the Russians haven't trashed might end up helping Europe out.

Rachel Jones8 said:Respect.
Hopefully there comes a day when we aren't feeling this much hate.
Though, honestly, nobody hates people—not you, or anyone specifically—it’s just more of a general thing.
It's gonna take some time.
But good people love other people, no matter where they're from.

Honestly, I think most people today are just fundamentally selfish. It doesn't matter if you're looking at Europe, America, or Russia—it's all the same. Everyone is just out to get rich off someone else's struggle, screw people over, or pull a fast one. Even neighbors do it to each other. Just look at any kind of merchant—take car salesmen, for example.
Nobody tries to sell someone an honest vehicle or point out its flaws; instead, they go out of their way to offload some overpriced junk disguised as a gem. Where are these "good people" you're talking about?

It's the same story with Putin. To stop Ukraine from profiting off its oil and gas exports, he launched an indirect aggression, followed by a full-blown direct invasion. And he's got the support of most Russians who—let's be real—don't even have a clue what they're actually backing.

Thanks.

https://twitter.com/ukraine_map/stat...5Es1_&ref_url=

dustyowl29 said:Honestly, I think most people today are just fundamentally selfish. It doesn't matter if you're looking at Europe, America, or Russia—it's all the same. Everyone is just out to get rich off someone else's struggle, screw people over, or pull a fast one. Even neighbors do it to each other. Just look at any kind of merchant—take car salesmen, for example.
Nobody tries to sell someone an honest vehicle or point out its flaws; instead, they go out of their way to offload some overpriced junk disguised as a gem. Where are these "good people" you're talking about?

It's the same story with Putin. To stop Ukraine from profiting off its oil and gas exports, he launched an indirect aggression, followed by a full-blown direct invasion. And he's got the support of most Russians who—let's be real—don't even have a clue what they're actually backing.

You hit the nail on the head.
But I don't think anyone truly hates specific groups (not that I'm getting too specific here)... maybe I just don't *like* certain types of people, but let's be real: when I meet someone, my opinion is based on who they are, not what country they're from.

That’s how it should work—not hating people for no reason. They actually have to earn it.

But let’s be real, that’s maybe one in a thousand people.
Most people are just selfish—it’s all "me, myself, and I." Honestly, who cares about anyone else? That’s exactly what leads us to the mess we're in today. Everyone is just looking out for their own skin and making sure nobody steps on them. It’s a pretty pathetic state of affairs for society, if you ask me.

dustyowl29 said:Honestly, I think most people today are just fundamentally selfish. It doesn't matter if you're looking at Europe, America, or Russia—it's all the same. Everyone is just out to get rich off someone else's struggle, screw people over, or pull a fast one. Even neighbors do it to each other. Just look at any kind of merchant—take car salesmen, for example.
Nobody tries to sell someone an honest vehicle or point out its flaws; instead, they go out of their way to offload some overpriced junk disguised as a gem. Where are these "good people" you're talking about?

It's the same story with Putin. To stop Ukraine from profiting off its oil and gas exports, he launched an indirect aggression, followed by a full-blown direct invasion. And he's got the support of most Russians who—let's be real—don't even have a clue what they're actually backing.

It should go without saying that you’re going to be sold a car that requires constant maintenance, though apparently, that needs explaining—I am at a loss for words. I am not suggesting every single car is garbage, but expecting a used vehicle to perform like it just rolled off the showroom floor is incredibly naive.

Personally, I don't view people through a lens of being purely good or purely evil. If everyone were actually "good," we wouldn't even be approaching a functional society. People are simply themselves, whether that manifests as good or bad... heh, it all depends on the individual. 🙂

Quincey:

The same goes for Putin. In order to prevent Ukraine from profiting from its oil and gas exports, he launched what began as indirect aggression and evolved into direct aggression, backed by a majority of Russians who don't even grasp the reality of what they are supporting.

Putin initiated this war out of pure, unadulterated mental curiosity, convenience, and egoism—it is difficult enough to describe, let alone attempt to dissect his specific motives.

He suffers from the exact same psychological pathology found in Mexico, and it appears to be terminal. However, these last two days in Ukraine might just serve as a much-needed form of therapy.

Sigmund Freud said:just put it on an MP3

this whole thing is moving far too fast for me.
the Ukrainians could probably afford to slow down for a second and just grab a coffee or a drink in peace

Let it move, I suppose, though if I were writing this earlier, I’d have suggested waiting at least a month so we don't end up looking like a cow acting like a donkey.

It’s a fair point to make, considering tactical retreats are a legitimate part of military strategy designed to set up future maneuvers.

https://twitter.com/KingKong9888/sta...38916382818305

There is a very logical reason why the Russians are relentlessly pounding Cleveland, which stands as the second largest city in Ukraine. The Russian border isn't exactly a distant thing, so we'll just have to wait and see how things develop. Generally speaking, my assessment is that there won't be any peace in that region—meaning all of Ukraine—for years to come; there will be massive problems. Peace is a relic of the past, much like the situation before 2014, or perhaps it will eventually resemble the Israel vs Palestinian situation where conflict is constant.

There is a significant chance that the Russians will eventually declare a classic war against Ukraine. Right now, they call it a "special operation," but once a state of war is officially declared, the entire dynamic shifts. In reality, the Russians aren't just fighting Ukraine; they are effectively at odds with everyone providing weapons to Ukrainians.

It is also worth noting that plenty of people believe World War III actually began with the Russian onslaught on Ukraine. I find myself agreeing with that assessment, and we will simply have to wait and see how it all unfolds in the end.☕

Andrew Miller102 said:Let it move, I suppose, though if I were writing this earlier, I’d have suggested waiting at least a month so we don't end up looking like a cow acting like a donkey.

It’s a fair point to make, considering tactical retreats are a legitimate part of military strategy designed to set up future maneuvers.

https://twitter.com/KingKong9888/sta...38916382818305

There is a very logical reason why the Russians are relentlessly pounding Cleveland, which stands as the second largest city in Ukraine. The Russian border isn't exactly a distant thing, so we'll just have to wait and see how things develop. Generally speaking, my assessment is that there won't be any peace in that region—meaning all of Ukraine—for years to come; there will be massive problems. Peace is a relic of the past, much like the situation before 2014, or perhaps it will eventually resemble the Israel vs Palestinian situation where conflict is constant.

There is a significant chance that the Russians will eventually declare a classic war against Ukraine. Right now, they call it a "special operation," but once a state of war is officially declared, the entire dynamic shifts. In reality, the Russians aren't just fighting Ukraine; they are effectively at odds with everyone providing weapons to Ukrainians.

It is also worth noting that plenty of people believe World War III actually began with the Russian onslaught on Ukraine. I find myself agreeing with that assessment, and we will simply have to wait and see how it all unfolds in the end.☕

They can declare whatever they want. Their own state is rapidly becoming irrelevant.

Nicole James said:They can declare whatever they want. Their own state is rapidly becoming irrelevant.

If they actually go through with declaring war or a state of emergency, the Russians are just digging their own graves even deeper. They are starting to realize this. It’s one thing to find themselves without an exit strategy, but it’s another to figure out how Putin and his inner circle can politically survive a withdrawal from Ukraine. They might manage to stay in power domestically—provided they ramp up the repression—but I don't see any sanctions being lifted while they are still running the show. And until those sanctions are gone, at least partially, nothing will ever return to the status quo. With the sanctions in place, the economy will only continue to deteriorate. We could see a situation where, despite all their gas and oil reserves, they are left literally freezing in the cold. They could be crippled by something as trivial as failing to produce basic components, like ball bearings for train cars, because they are cut off from the global market.

Andrew Miller102 said:Let it move, I suppose, though if I were writing this earlier, I’d have suggested waiting at least a month so we don't end up looking like a cow acting like a donkey.

It’s a fair point to make, considering tactical retreats are a legitimate part of military strategy designed to set up future maneuvers.

https://twitter.com/KingKong9888/sta...38916382818305

There is a very logical reason why the Russians are relentlessly pounding Cleveland, which stands as the second largest city in Ukraine. The Russian border isn't exactly a distant thing, so we'll just have to wait and see how things develop. Generally speaking, my assessment is that there won't be any peace in that region—meaning all of Ukraine—for years to come; there will be massive problems. Peace is a relic of the past, much like the situation before 2014, or perhaps it will eventually resemble the Israel vs Palestinian situation where conflict is constant.

There is a significant chance that the Russians will eventually declare a classic war against Ukraine. Right now, they call it a "special operation," but once a state of war is officially declared, the entire dynamic shifts. In reality, the Russians aren't just fighting Ukraine; they are effectively at odds with everyone providing weapons to Ukrainians.

It is also worth noting that plenty of people believe World War III actually began with the Russian onslaught on Ukraine. I find myself agreeing with that assessment, and we will simply have to wait and see how it all unfolds in the end.☕

Every single time the USA picks a fight, Russia steps in to arm and back the other side. Does that mean Russia and the Americans have been at war at least ten times already?!

Andrew Miller102 said:Let it move, I suppose, though if I were writing this earlier, I’d have suggested waiting at least a month so we don't end up looking like a cow acting like a donkey.

It’s a fair point to make, considering tactical retreats are a legitimate part of military strategy designed to set up future maneuvers.

https://twitter.com/KingKong9888/sta...38916382818305

There is a very logical reason why the Russians are relentlessly pounding Cleveland, which stands as the second largest city in Ukraine. The Russian border isn't exactly a distant thing, so we'll just have to wait and see how things develop. Generally speaking, my assessment is that there won't be any peace in that region—meaning all of Ukraine—for years to come; there will be massive problems. Peace is a relic of the past, much like the situation before 2014, or perhaps it will eventually resemble the Israel vs Palestinian situation where conflict is constant.

There is a significant chance that the Russians will eventually declare a classic war against Ukraine. Right now, they call it a "special operation," but once a state of war is officially declared, the entire dynamic shifts. In reality, the Russians aren't just fighting Ukraine; they are effectively at odds with everyone providing weapons to Ukrainians.

It is also worth noting that plenty of people believe World War III actually began with the Russian onslaught on Ukraine. I find myself agreeing with that assessment, and we will simply have to wait and see how it all unfolds in the end.☕

And what does changing that actually accomplish? A general mobilization?
Like, what about the gear? Food, body armor, helmets, transport, logistics—is that all just going to manifest out of thin air?
They can barely manage to properly equip the "professional" military currently in Ukraine, so how are they going to successfully mobilize the entire nation?
I mean, sure, they could try it using that old Soviet approach from WW2: just hand someone a Kalashnikov, throw them onto the front lines, and hope for the best while they're getting hammered by heavy machine guns. You just have to pray the West runs out of ammo before the Russians run out of people to draft.

hollowdriver13 said:And what does changing that actually accomplish? A general mobilization?
Like, what about the gear? Food, body armor, helmets, transport, logistics—is that all just going to manifest out of thin air?
They can barely manage to properly equip the "professional" military currently in Ukraine, so how are they going to successfully mobilize the entire nation?
I mean, sure, they could try it using that old Soviet approach from WW2: just hand someone a Kalashnikov, throw them onto the front lines, and hope for the best while they're getting hammered by heavy machine guns. You just have to pray the West runs out of ammo before the Russians run out of people to draft.

It would be quite something if they armed the Chechens and asked them to head over to Ukraine...😁

Hoho, I haven't really had a chance to catch up on the news yesterday or today—it feels like everything is happening at once. Though, I have to admit, this sudden wave of optimism is actually a little unsettling.
Well, we'll just have to wait and see.

I used to be one of those people who thought the Russians were pretty cool before they invaded Ukraine. They had this whole persona going—like they were some tough guys who wouldn't let anyone push them around, bold, capable, always standing their ground... it was almost romantic, in a way.
Then came the violation of Ukraine, the Bucha massacre, then those simulations on public TV showing the nuclear destruction of the United Kingdom and the USA, followed by that ridiculous "fridge" nonsense, the constant rambling from Zakharov, Lavrov, and Peskov, those reports from that robot Konashenkov... and the icing on the cake was that guy presenting a skull like some kind of primitive savage. They've lost all credibility.
I mean, look, I can get on board with this if things turn out okay. But as far as reputation goes? They've lost it.

Btw, it's been a while since we've heard anything from Lavrov.

Nathan Thomas12 said:Every single time the USA picks a fight, Russia steps in to arm and back the other side. Does that mean Russia and the Americans have been at war at least ten times already?!

That’s exactly how it works—either you face the conflict head-on, or you just stay silent about it indirectly and end up fighting the same war for decades.Vietnam is a classic case study where the Russians and Chinese played a massive role by funneling weapons to their side. You look at Iran versus Israel, and you already know exactly how that influence works and who is pulling the strings behind the scenes. When an American sends Stingers or Manpads to some ragtag Mujahideen to take down a Mi-24, that is, by definition, an indirect conflict with the Russians. There are plenty of examples like this, and one of the most recent was in Syria, where they actually called on the Russians for assistance. If the West had stepped in there, Assad would have ended up just like Hussein did in Iraq, or Syria would have been tactically redesigned following the Libyan scenario.☕

James Chavez91 As stated by:

First, we witnessed the violation of Ukraine, the horrors of Bucha, and then those grotesque simulations on public television depicting the nuclear annihilation of the United Kingdom and the USA. Then came that absurd "regimental refrigerator" nonsense, followed by Zakharov, Lavrov, and Peskov spilling their endless streams of disinformation, all punctuated by the constant reports from that robotic mouthpiece, Konashenkov. To top it all off, we were treated to that barbaric display of a man parading around with a Ukrainian soldier's skull, behaving like some primitive savage—is this truly what we have come to endure?

You have truly missed out on witnessing the absolute atrocities committed for years in Syria, all under the convenient guise of fighting terrorism.

They have completely forfeited any semblance of credibility.

I will say this once more: I am perfectly capable of securing this victory if I choose to. But make no mistake—they have already lost.

But did they ever actually possess them?

I was scrolling through Telegram yesterday and stumbled upon some news about how the Russians have started mobilizing folks from those occupied regions of Ukraine who actually took out Russian passports. It’s a bit of a grim setup, isn't it? You sign up for the citizenship, and in return, they hand you a Kalashnikov and a vest that offers about as much protection as a heavy sweater against anything more than a toy gun, then tell you to get moving toward the front lines.

Jessica Peterson2 said:I was scrolling through Telegram yesterday and stumbled upon some news about how the Russians have started mobilizing folks from those occupied regions of Ukraine who actually took out Russian passports. It’s a bit of a grim setup, isn't it? You sign up for the citizenship, and in return, they hand you a Kalashnikov and a vest that offers about as much protection as a heavy sweater against anything more than a toy gun, then tell you to get moving toward the front lines.

Honestly, I suspect most of these people saw this coming. I doubt there's going to be much of an outcry about it.

Kadyrov promises to reclaim everything they lost

"The head of Chechnya, Ramzan Kadyrov, is out there claiming that every single abandoned town on the road to Kharkiv is coming right back under their control. He dropped this whole thing in an audio clip over on his Telegram channel.

According to Kadyrov, the Russian Department of Defense basically laid out the situation, making it clear that the military had to pull out of places like Izyum, Kupyansk, and Balakliya near Kharkiv.

He’s spinning it as some kind of necessary tactical move—you know, a strategic retreat just to save lives. Isn't that always the excuse?

“I, Ramzan Kadyrov, am officially declaring that all these cities will be returned. Our people, who are specifically trained for this kind of work, are already stationed there, just waiting to deploy another 10,000 fighters. We’re going to reach Odessa in the near future, and then you'll see the real results," the Chechen leader boasted.

In his view, walking away from those towns actually has its own set of advantages, if you believe him.

https://www-gazeta-ru.translate.goog..._x_tr_pto=wapp