Russia's invasion of Ukraine: Part 5

I honestly find myself wondering what happens to Kaliningrad if the Ukrainians actually pull off a win in this war. Wouldn't this be the one perfect moment to finally push the Russians out of there, considering that place isn't even really part of Russia?

Roger Fowler said:I honestly find myself wondering what happens to Kaliningrad if the Ukrainians actually pull off a win in this war. Wouldn't this be the one perfect moment to finally push the Russians out of there, considering that place isn't even really part of Russia?

There isn't even a remote chance of that territory being handed back to Germany or partitioned between Poland and Lithuania. If Russia faces a defeat, the real threat they'll be staring down is internal unrest—think uprisings in places like Chechnya, Dagestan, Bashkortostan, or Tatarstan—along with the inevitable loss of their former "possessions," such as Transnistria and Abkhazia.

loneskipper3 said:There isn't even a remote chance of that territory being handed back to Germany or partitioned between Poland and Lithuania. If Russia faces a defeat, the real threat they'll be staring down is internal unrest—think uprisings in places like Chechnya, Dagestan, Bashkortostan, or Tatarstan—along with the inevitable loss of their former "possessions," such as Transnistria and Abkhazia.

If they decide to leave a Trojan Horse sitting right in the middle of the European Union, then we're dealing with a level of stupidity that's practically limitless.

Carl Friedrich Gauss once noted:
There is zero chance of those territories returning to Germany or being split between Poland and Lithuania. If Russia faces a defeat, the real threat they face isn't external—it's internal instability—think uprisings within their own borders (Chechnya, Dagestan, Bashkortostan, Tatarstan, the Russian Far East, etc.) or the loss of their former sphere of influence (Transnistria, Abkhazia).

Handing it over to Ukraine as military reparations?

Roger Fowler said:If they decide to leave a Trojan Horse sitting right in the middle of the European Union, then we're dealing with a level of stupidity that's practically limitless.

If the European Union starts ignoring the borders established after World War II—essentially trashing the very foundation of international law and security—they'd be acting just as poorly as Russia.

The only way out is if Russia decides to step back and accept the terms itself.

bluemason3 said:If the European Union starts ignoring the borders established after World War II—essentially trashing the very foundation of international law and security—they'd be acting just as poorly as Russia.

The only way out is if Russia decides to step back and accept the terms itself.

All Russia has managed to prove so far is that they aren't worth the breath it takes to trust them, especially when you consider that someone openly threatening nuclear war while invading sovereign nations deserves to be neutralized as a security threat, though I suppose we should remember that those post-World War II borders have been tossed around more times than people care to admit since the nineties, yet nobody seemed to blink then.

Rachel Richardson said:

Carl Friedrich Gauss once noted:
There is zero chance of those territories returning to Germany or being split between Poland and Lithuania. If Russia faces a defeat, the real threat they face isn't external—it's internal instability—think uprisings within their own borders (Chechnya, Dagestan, Bashkortostan, Tatarstan, the Russian Far East, etc.) or the loss of their former sphere of influence (Transnistria, Abkhazia).

Handing it over to Ukraine as military reparations?

That's a drop in the bucket. We're looking at damage so massive it would take thirty years just to recover half of what was lost from Russian gas exports—effectively handing it straight to Ukraine.

William Miller12 said:So, where did the news at the start of this War in Ukraine video actually come from?

Word is, Russia offered a peace deal a few days back—basically suggesting everyone just revert to how things were before February 24, 2022.
The Ukrainians reportedly turned it down, insisting on returning to the pre-2014 status quo (with Crimea, obviously), demanding war reparations, keeping sanctions in place for a while longer, and securing security guarantees from the USA, EU, and Australia.

Apparently, that Russian missile strike on the energy grid was immediate retaliation for rejecting the offer, meant to force them toward a truce.
I also heard Scholz supposedly gave Zelenskyy a call today...

The channel itself is fairly reliable. Even though the creator is Ukrainian and clearly on their side, he’s incredibly critical of the Ukrainian political leadership and usually paints a pretty grim picture of the situation.

The only thing I've seen that touches on this topic is this interview (shared by dakok):
https://www.france24.com/en/tv-shows...int-of-the-war

___

Knowing the Russians, that sounds completely unrealistic to me.
Russia would sign a peace treaty tomorrow if it meant securing exactly what they hold right now. Previously, they wanted Kherson, Zaporizhzhia, Donbas, and Kharkiv—on top of ensuring Ukraine stays out of NATO (which was the stated reason for the invasion, though we all know imperial hunger is the real driver).
Volodymyr Zelenskyy offered to forgo NATO membership, but the Russian response was essentially: "Great, Ukraine has shown its willingness"—which translates to: "Now hand over the territory." Those hungry Russian bears just want their fill.
If we're being realistic: Russia withdraws from Ukraine, pays reparations, provides guarantees, and Ukraine commits to staying out of NATO.
But Russia won't move without guarantees—which really means they'll just wait 5 to 10 years before invading again. They just want a breather to regroup and strengthen.
Anyone remember Chechen history?😛They lost the first war, withdrew, and then attacked again a few years later to win the second.
As for the Ukrainians, if they could just stop being so uncompromising about Crimea... but unfortunately, that ship sailed a long time ago, and Russia isn't about to retreat because of the Black Sea Fleet.

Roger Fowler said:I honestly find myself wondering what happens to Kaliningrad if the Ukrainians actually pull off a win in this war. Wouldn't this be the one perfect moment to finally push the Russians out of there, considering that place isn't even really part of Russia?

The borders stay exactly where they are—that is the principle. Vladimir Putin would trade Kaliningrad for all of Ukraine in a heartbeat. And such trades? They are nothing more than accounting tricks—all smoke and no substance.

At that point, you might as well just turn the entire fleet into an artificial reef

sent from my iPhone

Prigozhin is recruiting criminals
https://twitter.com/christogrozev/st...eiZSAen3wlAGZA

Roger Campbell3 said:Knowing the Russians, that sounds completely unrealistic to me.
Russia would sign a peace treaty tomorrow if it meant securing exactly what they hold right now. Previously, they wanted Kherson, Zaporizhzhia, Donbas, and Kharkiv—on top of ensuring Ukraine stays out of NATO (which was the stated reason for the invasion, though we all know imperial hunger is the real driver).
Volodymyr Zelenskyy offered to forgo NATO membership, but the Russian response was essentially: "Great, Ukraine has shown its willingness"—which translates to: "Now hand over the territory." Those hungry Russian bears just want their fill.
If we're being realistic: Russia withdraws from Ukraine, pays reparations, provides guarantees, and Ukraine commits to staying out of NATO.
But Russia won't move without guarantees—which really means they'll just wait 5 to 10 years before invading again. They just want a breather to regroup and strengthen.
Anyone remember Chechen history?😛They lost the first war, withdrew, and then attacked again a few years later to win the second.
As for the Ukrainians, if they could just stop being so uncompromising about Crimea... but unfortunately, that ship sailed a long time ago, and Russia isn't about to retreat because of the Black Sea Fleet.

Sure, it’s likely just more Russian *maskirovka*, but I think there might be something actually happening here....

DW News: German chancellor urges Putin to agree to ceasefire as counteroffensive advances


It looks like some quiet diplomacy has been happening behind the scenes.

And oh yeah, the biggest sticking point will be what I mentioned back in the spring during those first talks (the ones pro-Russian circles are now claiming were all settled before Boris Johnson showed up in Kyiv): security guarantees for Ukraine.
In my opinion, there are only two real, serious guarantees: either Russia collapses, or Ukraine becomes a nuclear power.

Edit:
Also, the fact that people are even discussing this suggests the situation inside Russia is much worse than they let on. It's showing in the military—I don't need to go into detail there—but also politically, with local politicians pushing back, and even in the media, where you see people questioning the war and the stance toward Ukraine during prime time.
A total reversal of the war isn't really on the table anymore. Even if the political will existed, it's probably too late for mobilization in Russia; training and equipping new recruits would take longer than the Russian army can actually sustain in Ukraine. That "famous" 3rd Army Corps seems to be doing little more than wandering around the rear in southern Ukraine; honestly, it looks like they're looking for ways to avoid combat rather than join it. This whole mess is the result of that big initiative to have every Russian region mobilize and equip its own volunteer battalion—which resulted in units that are only at one-third or half their supposed strength.

Hmm... Winter is Coming 😁
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coastalbison6 said:Prigozhin is recruiting criminals
https://twitter.com/christogrozev/st...eiZSAen3wlAGZA

Here is what Prigozhin is actually saying:

"We first started fighting prisoners back in June. They stormed the trenches and just slaughtered everyone with knives."

"Anyone among you who thinks I'm actually wrong is going to be labeled a deserter and shot on the spot."

"Stick with us for six months, and you'll either get a pardon or can keep working for us. No one is going back to prison."

"The age range is 22 to 50, but if you're in good shape, you can go older."

"Even sex offenders are included. Mistakes happen to anyone."

Believe it or not 🤣

You’re probably not going to believe this, but Russia's ambassador to the UN just called for an emergency meeting of the UN Security Council. Apparently, they want to talk about what they're calling the "illegal seizure of Russian weapons and technology" over in the Kharkiv region.

https://twitter.com/Louzi1969/status...r_wK7gBAlYpqYg

coastalbison6 said:Believe it or not 🤣

You’re probably not going to believe this, but Russia's ambassador to the UN just called for an emergency meeting of the UN Security Council. Apparently, they want to talk about what they're calling the "illegal seizure of Russian weapons and technology" over in the Kharkiv region.

https://twitter.com/Louzi1969/status...r_wK7gBAlYpqYg

A perfect setup for a marathon trolling session.

The gift that keeps on giving.

Roger Campbell3 said:Knowing the Russians, that sounds completely unrealistic to me.
Russia would sign a peace treaty tomorrow if it meant securing exactly what they hold right now. Previously, they wanted Kherson, Zaporizhzhia, Donbas, and Kharkiv—on top of ensuring Ukraine stays out of NATO (which was the stated reason for the invasion, though we all know imperial hunger is the real driver).
Volodymyr Zelenskyy offered to forgo NATO membership, but the Russian response was essentially: "Great, Ukraine has shown its willingness"—which translates to: "Now hand over the territory." Those hungry Russian bears just want their fill.
If we're being realistic: Russia withdraws from Ukraine, pays reparations, provides guarantees, and Ukraine commits to staying out of NATO.
But Russia won't move without guarantees—which really means they'll just wait 5 to 10 years before invading again. They just want a breather to regroup and strengthen.
Anyone remember Chechen history?😛They lost the first war, withdrew, and then attacked again a few years later to win the second.
As for the Ukrainians, if they could just stop being so uncompromising about Crimea... but unfortunately, that ship sailed a long time ago, and Russia isn't about to retreat because of the Black Sea Fleet.

Wait, what Black Sea Fleet are we even talking about? I guess I might have missed a bit of the context there! 😬

Check out this economic forecast about Russia's economy heading for a total collapse! It’s super interesting because it actually pulls from a Russian report. The video is about 38 minutes long, so if you're short on time, just skip to the “Summary” section using the chapters.

coastalbison6 said:Believe it or not 🤣

You’re probably not going to believe this, but Russia's ambassador to the UN just called for an emergency meeting of the UN Security Council. Apparently, they want to talk about what they're calling the "illegal seizure of Russian weapons and technology" over in the Kharkiv region.

https://twitter.com/Louzi1969/status...r_wK7gBAlYpqYg

What a joke! 🤣 🤣

Honestly, I swear, I get totally floored every single time I see the kind of absolute nonsense these idiots try to pull off. 🙏 🙏

Chloe Jackson15 said:That's a drop in the bucket. We're looking at damage so massive it would take thirty years just to recover half of what was lost from Russian gas exports—effectively handing it straight to Ukraine.

Small, perhaps, but it serves as a starting point. 🧐

Returning Kareli to the Finc people would be much the same. 🧐

Kenneth Cruz67 said:Wait, what Black Sea Fleet are we even talking about? I guess I might have missed a bit of the context there! 😬

Those coral reefs sitting on the ocean floor. 😬

Gregory Ramos3 said:What a joke! 🤣 🤣

Honestly, I swear, I get totally floored every single time I see the kind of absolute nonsense these idiots try to pull off. 🙏 🙏

It might be fake, but it’s a pretty convincing one. 😁