Russia's invasion of Ukraine: Part 5

Christian Torres3 said:Nothing new here besides the fact that they'll probably just round up locals and ship them off to Ukraine. The US response keeps flying in daily—cargo planes hitting Poland, then moving into Ukraine, followed by HIMARS strikes or B-52s raining hell on the Russians.

Exactly. 👍

Tyler Jones6 said:I honestly find myself wondering who exactly Russia plans to mobilize next—but the moment they realized the Far East was finally stirring, the strategy became painfully obvious. It’s all clear now: they are sending the minorities from the autonomous republics and districts straight to the front lines. It’s a cynical way to kill two birds with one stone—they thin out the minority populations while simultaneously securing a steady supply of cheap cannon fodder.

There is a massive difference between mobilizing 100,000 Russians to face certain death, versus mobilizing 100,000 people from Ingushetia, Yakutia, Buryatia, Tuva, Bashkiria, or the various other ethnic Turkic or Mongolian minorities.

Naturally. And the Chechens too.

The mere announcement of a partial mobilization was a pretty effective slap in the face for the Euro

The only real solution is to max out the military support for Ukraine. We need to get them trained on F-16s, F-35s, and whatever else represents the cutting edge of our arsenal. It seems like this fool is surrounded by such spineless sycophants that nobody can actually pull him back from the edge. At this point, only a total military defeat might finally stir up the public or his inner circle...

Tyler Jones6 said:I honestly find myself wondering who exactly Russia plans to mobilize next—but the moment they realized the Far East was finally stirring, the strategy became painfully obvious. It’s all clear now: they are sending the minorities from the autonomous republics and districts straight to the front lines. It’s a cynical way to kill two birds with one stone—they thin out the minority populations while simultaneously securing a steady supply of cheap cannon fodder.

There is a massive difference between mobilizing 100,000 Russians to face certain death, versus mobilizing 100,000 people from Ingushetia, Yakutia, Buryatia, Tuva, Bashkiria, or the various other ethnic Turkic or Mongolian minorities.

They’ll probably just mobilize the reservists... but let’s be real, I have no clue how many people actually hold that status or where they even come from.

Anyone got the scoop on this?

gentlestag15 said:Putin: Russia Has more modern nukes Than the West. will Use All weapons if Russian territory is threatened. "We are not bluffing."

So, basically, he sets up those rigged referendums to pull off an annexation of those regions, and then if the Ukrainians try to push back, he claims he's got the right to drop the nukes.
Because suddenly, they're attacking American-aligned territory or whatever.

you lost me AT "modern"...

Kate Lewis3 said:Let's be real, even if they called it general mobilization, half the guys with deep pockets would find a way to dodge being sent out there to man the HIMARS thanks to all the corruption.

Those with sufficient means essentially buy their way out of any draft. Russia functions as a highly bureaucratized state—one that is inherently prone to graft (after all, what is the point of bureaucracy if not to facilitate corruption?). They possess an "experienced" administrative class that knows exactly how to monetize every single situation. This particular moment provides the perfect opportunity for quick, easy cash.
And I suspect the government will ensure its loyal sycophants aren't sent to the front lines. They serve a different purpose entirely. Since the actual patriots were exhausted long ago, who else is left to act as cannon fodder? Only those who lack the connections or the wits to slip through the cracks.

Looks like every single guy on the list just got hit.

Quick trivia question for the group: how long do you think they’ll actually be waiting for that summons to arrive? 😁

Nancy Gomez26 said:I didn't sit through the entire speech because I was stuck watching those subtitles—which honestly drive me up the wall—but from what I gathered, there was some nonsense about preserving the territorial integrity of the Russian Federation. Let’s be clear: Russia isn't launching an attack, nor is its own sovereignty under threat. What we are seeing in Ukraine is nothing more than standard territorial expansionism disguised as defense. By his logic, any nation could invade its neighbors and claim they're simply "protecting their borders." It’s a completely moronic way to frame reality.

They'll probably annex those regions into Russia within a week; they already snatched up Crimea
under that whole "territorial integrity" delusion this guy is peddling

Paul Sanders5 said:Looks like every single guy on the list just got hit.

Quick trivia question for the group: how long do you think they’ll actually be waiting for that summons to arrive? 😁

Once our resident forum legend Ivan the Terrible gets his mobilization notice...
😁

Paul Sanders5 said:Looks like every single guy on the list just got hit.

Quick trivia question for the group: how long do you think they’ll actually be waiting for that summons to arrive? 😁

But they aren't... they're just the backups... though honestly, I haven't got a clue how many of them there are or who specifically made the cut.

William Anderson5 said:The only real solution is to max out the military support for Ukraine. We need to get them trained on F-16s, F-35s, and whatever else represents the cutting edge of our arsenal. It seems like this fool is surrounded by such spineless sycophants that nobody can actually pull him back from the edge. At this point, only a total military defeat might finally stir up the public or his inner circle...

The training for those Ukrainian pilots on the F-16s is already underway right here in the States.

Daniel Ward87 said:you lost me AT "modern"...

Whether they’re "modern" or actually modern—if those things start going off (anywhere, really), it’s gonna be a mess. Just imagine if one of them blows up right on their own soil. Given how much they've been bragging, they could probably launch anything at this rate.

gentlestag15 said:They'll probably annex those regions into Russia within a week; they already snatched up Crimea
under that whole "territorial integrity" delusion this guy is peddling

Once our resident forum legend Ivan the Terrible gets his mobilization notice...
😁

Thinking is clearly...

He mentioned that mobilization is leaning more toward war veterans. Still, he claims they aren't pivoting to that "meat grinder" tactic—which is already the standard playbook for Ukraine—just yet.

But look, it shows they’re running low on people. They want to wipe out that Ukrainian advantage, and if they don't mobilize, they won't.

I doubt they'll pull the nuclear trigger easily—but once they annex parts of Ukraine, if an offensive like the one in Kharkiv pushes them toward somewhere like Kherson and they run out of conventional moves? Then anything goes.
The bigger threat to Ukraine and the West is really just the pressure to stop fighting and let the whole mess freeze.

Now we're just waiting for equally aggressive, bellicose rhetoric to come out of Kyiv and Washington, D.C.—it’s pretty obvious nobody's looking to blink here.

If this partial mobilization actually works the way he hopes, all it's going to do is drag this war out even longer without yielding any real gains. At the end of the day, he’s just playing for time to cling to power. It's all about staying in control, which means we'll likely see a full-scale draft eventually, and honestly, he might even resort to nuclear weapons just to secure his legacy and make sure history remembers him.
I'm telling you, I'm pretty convinced someone will manage to oust him before he ever gets the chance to pull the nuclear trigger.

Brenda Murphy3 said:But they aren't... they're just the backups... though honestly, I haven't got a clue how many of them there are or who specifically made the cut.

Shoigu mentioned a plan to bring 300,000 reservists into the rotation.

Does anyone know which version of the speech was supposed to go live last night versus what we're actually seeing now?

BTW, wasn't this supposed to feature Shoigu?

Here is the blueprint for how they plan to run this "referendum" in occupied Zaporizhzhia: little "election squads," made up of election officials and a handful of cops (!), will be going door-to-door. 🤦
I suppose they’ll just roll through in a minivan...
https://meduza.io/news/2022/09/20/v-...-politskymi

Jessica Peterson2 said:Here is the blueprint for how they plan to run this "referendum" in occupied Zaporizhzhia: little "election squads," made up of election officials and a handful of cops (!), will be going door-to-door. 🤦
I suppose they’ll just roll through in a minivan...
https://meduza.io/news/2022/09/20/v-...-politskymi

Are you kidding me? 😁

Democracy, Russian style...

Do you actually have any idea who these reservists are that they're supposedly mobilizing, or even how many there are? Where are these people coming from, and what kind of structure are they even working with?

It’s just a negotiation tactic, plain and simple.

Nothing has actually changed here. This notion that Putin might just decide to pull back? Where is that coming from? He’ll keep fighting as long as there are citizens left to lose; he couldn't care less about the casualties as long as he stays in power. Finances? He doesn't give a damn.

He's just signaling that negotiations are necessary, using referendums and mobilization to manufacture some kind of leverage.

The fundamental issue remains: how do you negotiate when someone has occupied another sovereign nation?

This cycle will drag on for years. Unless the rules of the game change—and really, the only rule that matters is who holds power in Russia.