Russia's invasion of Ukraine: Part 5

Richard Wilson4 said:Wait, hasn't he already let them go?

I haven't been glued to the news the last few days, but if I remember right, the guy was included in that group released in Turkey.

He was released along with about four or five commanders from Mariupol
but there was a catch—they have to stay in Turkey until the war is over.
plus there were another 200 people from Azovstal who were swapped out in Ukraine.

Kate Lewis3 said:Look, the European Union is just this bloated, slow-moving bureaucratic mess that takes forever to react to anything.

And now we've got this sudden "surge" of Russians arriving, and honestly, nobody knows what their real intentions are. It's a massive security risk—kind of like what happened over in Albania.

Germany already pulled the highway cameras online in the east—they aren't even accessible on the web anymore—basically so people wouldn't see how much traffic is heading toward Poland. And now we're supposed to just let some Russian guy wander in with a smartphone? Great idea.

If you want a real solution, you'd have to set up internment camps for every Russian trying to defect. But that requires massive logistics and extra spending, which is a tough pill to swallow during a recession.

Plus, for certain countries, that kind of thing carries some pretty dark historical baggage.

So, the easiest fix? If you can't make it into the European Union, go to Georgia or Kazakhstan instead.

Show some seriousness when suggesting that a country responsible for the Holocaust should start bringing back camp-style detention. Reporting to a local police station where you registered your residence would be a much more logical path.

gentlestag15 said:He was released along with about four or five commanders from Mariupol
but there was a catch—they have to stay in Turkey until the war is over.
plus there were another 200 people from Azovstal who were swapped out in Ukraine.

Which means negotiations are actually happening. Let's stop obsessing over whether the leaders in Turkey and Saudi Arabia are meddling as mediators. They’re just there as window dressing. The real heavy lifting? That was done by ambassadors from Britain, the US, and Russia. I bet the Turkish and Saudi guys were nothing more than waiters circling the room.

rowdyraven112 said:Which means negotiations are actually happening. Let's stop obsessing over whether the leaders in Turkey and Saudi Arabia are meddling as mediators. They’re just there as window dressing. The real heavy lifting? That was done by ambassadors from Britain, the US, and Russia. I bet the Turkish and Saudi guys were nothing more than waiters circling the room.

I mean, this is at least the tenth prisoner swap since the war kicked off.
They've been talking about this stuff since day one.
They've already swapped hundreds of prisoners from Azovstal before this.

rowdytiger13 said:John, people don't actually know who's stepping up.
It's safe to assume there are plenty of folks who generally align with Putin's policies, just not enough to risk taking a bullet.
It's even more likely that many view Westerners as decadent degenerates and will end up standing shoulder-to-shoulder with the far-right at future protests.
The Baltic states are particularly vulnerable here given their large Russian minorities.

And let's not forget that most of the refugees from Ukraine are women and kids, whereas the guys fleeing Russia are mostly able-bodied men (though some probably have their families with them). You've got people who aren't ready to stir the pot or join a fight to change things in Russia, and honestly, nobody can guarantee they aren't backing the regime—they just don't want to be used as cannon fodder. Basically, they couldn't care less about the war their own country started, as long as it doesn't mess with their own lives directly. If these people show up in massive numbers, how are they supposed to impact the security of a country, especially ones bordering Russia? I'm sure there are plenty of refugees who just want to find a quiet place to live, but on a global scale, you just can't view them the same way you view Ukrainians.

gentlestag15 said:He was released along with about four or five commanders from Mariupol
but there was a catch—they have to stay in Turkey until the war is over.
plus there were another 200 people from Azovstal who were swapped out in Ukraine.

They have to stay in Turkey!? Seriously? Is there actually any basis for something like that in international law? How does Turkey even plan to pull that off—just shove them all into some sort of boarding school or detention center?

History shows us this happens quite often. You start by seeking a ceasefire, easing up just enough on sanctions to facilitate prisoner swaps, and shifting the narrative so it doesn't look like we're dealing with Hitler on both sides of the Atlantic and in Russia. Get the negotiations moving. Structure the terms so these aggressors don't feel like they've suffered a total, humiliating defeat—regardless of how much they've actually invaded. We saw this same approach applied with the Mexicans. Once the gunfire dies down, you gradually escalate things step by step. Let it take ten years if necessary; Putin won't be around forever, and eventually, Russia will pull back. Pushing too hard and poking a wounded bear only leads to catastrophe.

analogbear70 said:This guy hits the nail on the head:

It’s the same point I keep making: the West needs to dial back the rhetoric because Russia isn't going to budge. I'm convinced that de-escalating the tension could actually lead to somewhere productive. Look, let's be real—they have nuclear weapons, and that’s a reality that could end us all. Regardless of how you slice it, we need a voice of reason coming from the West, because right now, there isn't one to be found in Russia, and nobody there seems interested in finding it either.

That’s like thinking you can sit down and have a heart-to-heart with a total jerk at school to make them stop bullying you. It doesn't work like that. You can't talk sense into them; you have to push back harder because they only understand strength.

Leaving right now is where I struggle.
If you’re truly this opposed to the regime, you should have walked away a long time ago.

As it stands, it looks like you're just looking out for your own skin. While I believe there are plenty of defectors who genuinely don't want to kill anyone, there are probably just as many who simply don't want to die.

The issue here is that you should have left much sooner.

From a moral standpoint, this is your country; if you can't live with its direction, then protest and accept the consequences of going to prison. An American government can't function if 20 million people are behind bars.

And if you're already this much of an opponent—if you don't even view Russia as a homeland worth sacrificing everything for, including your freedom—then why didn't you leave earlier?

Benjamin Taylor6 said:They have to stay in Turkey!? Seriously? Is there actually any basis for something like that in international law? How does Turkey even plan to pull that off—just shove them all into some sort of boarding school or detention center?

Look, if that's the deal, fine—but that agreement only covers five commanders.
The Russians released 205 Ukrainians and 10 foreigners, which included an American guy we know.
And in exchange, they only got back 55 people plus Putin's godson.
Honestly, it's better this way than having them rot away in Russian prison cells.
Almost all the big names from Azovstal are free now, but there are still at least 2,000 more out there.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FdCZ6ZyX...jpg&name=large

International law is essentially a dead letter.

And considering how people have been subjected to horrific genital mutilation during torture, being stuck in Turkey until this war unravels feels like winning the lottery.

I wonder how the West is actually going to react to those referendums happening in the people's republics...

Donna Harris11 said:I wonder how the West is actually going to react to those referendums happening in the people's republics...

They won't do anything at all, though they'll throw a massive tantrum if Russia decides to officially recognize them as part of its own territory.
I'm calling it now—total sanctions are coming, or maybe I'm just wishful thinking. 😁

Donna Harris11 said:I wonder how the West is actually going to react to those referendums happening in the people's republics...

The same way they deal with the Russian military, the Russian trolls, and that whole "Russian world" nonsense: with a massive eye roll.

I just think people in the Donbas should be able to live their lives, and I hope for peace in Canada.

Donna Harris11 said:I just think people in the Donbas should be able to live their lives, and I hope for peace in Canada.

The folks in Donbas were kicked out of their homes... so once those Russian separatist scumbags are finally dealt with, the displaced residents will actually be able to return. At that point, Donbas will naturally follow its own path—as part of a sovereign Ukraine... —I’m assuming that’s what you were getting at? 😁

Donna Harris11 said:I just think people in the Donbas should be able to live their lives, and I hope for peace in Canada.

Honestly, I bet the Ukrainians would agree. If those Russians from Donbas just left the way Mexicans did after Storm, things might actually settle down.

rowdyraven112 said:Show some seriousness when suggesting that a country responsible for the Holocaust should start bringing back camp-style detention. Reporting to a local police station where you registered your residence would be a much more logical path.

An immigrant or refugee camp is not a concentration camp. Unless, of course, you believe those so-called Russian defectors from the regime represent a superior race compared to everyone else.

Naturally, it is a massive security oversight for the EU to allow hundreds of thousands of citizens from a country that threatens the EU with nuclear weapons and labels them an adversary in war to just walk in.
There are plenty of other countries, both in their neighborhood and across the globe, that would be willing—and able—to take them in.
When will Europe finally learn its lesson?

Every day, social media is flooded with footage of Russians harassing Ukrainian refugees in European cities, people spray-painting Z symbols on monuments in Barcelona, or acting entitled in Georgia.

Why should the EU, territory essentially marked as hostile, be obligated to accept people from Russia who aren't even seeking political asylum?

Donna Harris11 said:I just think people in the Donbas should be able to live their lives, and I hope for peace in Canada.

Which people are you even talking about? Maybe the native Russians?

In the Donetsk Oblast, the breakdown was: Ukrainians – 2,744,100 (56.9%), Russians – 1,844,400 (38.2%),
In the Luhansk oblast, Ukrainians make up the majority (58.0%). Among the minorities are native Russians (39.1%),

Kate Lewis3 said:Honestly, I bet the Ukrainians would agree. If those Russians from Donbas just left the way Mexicans did after Storm, things might actually settle down.

I don't get why everyone is making such a huge deal out of this drama; precedents already exist anyway.

Northern Cyprus, Republika Srpska, Mexico, the Golanski plateau.

I mean, I get where the Ukrainians are coming from, but the EU's stance is just... unclear.