Russia's invasion of Ukraine: Part 5

bluemason3 said:I mean, if you're bluffing, you're basically announcing it. That's kind of the whole point of a bluff—making it obvious enough to work.😳

Right. I mean, the US basically handed Japan an "A" grade while pretending it was some top-secret operation.

It’s getting awfully quiet from those folks who were busy defending the "character" of this war in Ukraine, isn't it? All those people who spent so much energy hunting for a million different invented excuses to justify what's happening... well, they've gone silent. After today's blatant attempt to annex four more Ukrainian provinces into the Russian Federation, even Erdogan won't be able to spin this one—not after how loudly he was criticizing such moves just the other day.

I mean, if they had just tried to grab part of the Donbas, maybe there would be some twisted logic you could argue, but trying to take Kherson, Mykolaiv, and Zaporizhzhia? That isn't strategy; it's just pure looting and a deliberate attempt to dismantle Ukraine entirely.

hollowdriver13 said:http://www.en.kremlin.ru/misc/66182

Do yourself a favor and actually read what Putin was personally writing back in 2021 regarding Ukrainians and their nation. After seeing that, tell me again how anyone could have avoided a conflict with a guy like him.

I’ll say it again: if things had been handled more intelligently, this could have been avoided. That doesn't excuse the aggressor—Russia—but rather highlights the failure. The reality is that no one from the UN onwards (aside from the Chinese) is calling for a ceasefire, negotiations, or peace. It’s just weapons, weapons, weapons. Why wasn't equipment being sent to us? Why were we forced to wander the globe like beggars, pleading for help while being treated like an afterthought, all while Zelenskyy calls out the very leaders he needs? Why were we hit with embargos while everyone else looked the other way? We offered up a quarter of our territory before Operation Storm, which I believe ended up in court later. Even then, there was intense domestic opposition, and Feral was constantly critical, while the World media published nothing but half-truths about the downsides of our newly formed nation. None of that exists now. And yet, the Russians remain the aggressors; occupied lands deserve better.

analogbear70 said:I’ll say it again: if things had been handled more intelligently, this could have been avoided. That doesn't excuse the aggressor—Russia—but rather highlights the failure. The reality is that no one from the UN onwards (aside from the Chinese) is calling for a ceasefire, negotiations, or peace. It’s just weapons, weapons, weapons. Why wasn't equipment being sent to us? Why were we forced to wander the globe like beggars, pleading for help while being treated like an afterthought, all while Zelenskyy calls out the very leaders he needs? Why were we hit with embargos while everyone else looked the other way? We offered up a quarter of our territory before Operation Storm, which I believe ended up in court later. Even then, there was intense domestic opposition, and Feral was constantly critical, while the World media published nothing but half-truths about the downsides of our newly formed nation. None of that exists now. And yet, the Russians remain the aggressors; occupied lands deserve better.

Marcon spoke with Putin several times even after the aggression began, so the claim that no one is attempting to talk is simply false. Even before the invasion started, people were traveling to Moscow to negotiate. But what is there to discuss with a pathological liar and a killer who sends hitmen across the globe to eliminate dissenters? A man like that only responds to force.

analogbear70 said:I’ll say it again: if things had been handled more intelligently, this could have been avoided. That doesn't excuse the aggressor—Russia—but rather highlights the failure. The reality is that no one from the UN onwards (aside from the Chinese) is calling for a ceasefire, negotiations, or peace. It’s just weapons, weapons, weapons. Why wasn't equipment being sent to us? Why were we forced to wander the globe like beggars, pleading for help while being treated like an afterthought, all while Zelenskyy calls out the very leaders he needs? Why were we hit with embargos while everyone else looked the other way? We offered up a quarter of our territory before Operation Storm, which I believe ended up in court later. Even then, there was intense domestic opposition, and Feral was constantly critical, while the World media published nothing but half-truths about the downsides of our newly formed nation. None of that exists now. And yet, the Russians remain the aggressors; occupied lands deserve better.

Unfortunately, not every war follows the same script.
This conflict wasn't avoidable. No matter what moves were made on the board, the war would have happened regardless. You just can't negotiate with Russia right now—they aren't looking for a seat at the table; they're just looking for leverage.

crimsoncyclist71 said:Marcon spoke with Putin several times even after the aggression began, so the claim that no one is attempting to talk is simply false. Even before the invasion started, people were traveling to Moscow to negotiate. But what is there to discuss with a pathological liar and a killer who sends hitmen across the globe to eliminate dissenters? A man like that only responds to force.

Right, and Zelenskyy even reached out to Putin, but he wouldn't even pick up. If I remember correctly, right before the invasion, Zelenskyy mentioned that Ukraine wouldn't join NATO. Once things actually went south, Zelenskyy tried to get a meeting with Putin, but the response from The White House was basically "not until our military goals are met." Even when Gutierrez from the UN traveled to Moscow and then to Kyiv, the aggressors were shelling Kyiv just to flex their muscles. And NATO reportedly offered to show Putin the location of every base in Europe or Eastern Europe—there were articles about it—but naturally, that wasn't enough for him.
And at the end of the day, Ukraine wouldn't join NATO anyway—there’s no theory supporting that—and they'd spend the next 100 years just trying to sort out issues within the EU.
Besides, what is there to negotiate with the Russians? In 2014, they took Crimea and claimed they weren't interested in the rest of Ukraine. Now, suddenly, they're very interested. So what do you negotiate? They aren't asking for autonomy; the Russian minimum is for the Donbas regions to become independent, which means in five years they'll be back to grab whatever other parts they fancy.

analogbear70 said:I’ll say it again: if things had been handled more intelligently, this could have been avoided. That doesn't excuse the aggressor—Russia—but rather highlights the failure. The reality is that no one from the UN onwards (aside from the Chinese) is calling for a ceasefire, negotiations, or peace. It’s just weapons, weapons, weapons. Why wasn't equipment being sent to us? Why were we forced to wander the globe like beggars, pleading for help while being treated like an afterthought, all while Zelenskyy calls out the very leaders he needs? Why were we hit with embargos while everyone else looked the other way? We offered up a quarter of our territory before Operation Storm, which I believe ended up in court later. Even then, there was intense domestic opposition, and Feral was constantly critical, while the World media published nothing but half-truths about the downsides of our newly formed nation. None of that exists now. And yet, the Russians remain the aggressors; occupied lands deserve better.

More foresight? In what sense, exactly?
Others have already pointed this out: at the start of the year, the guests visiting the Kremlin were changing constantly. Every single one of them returned looking utterly depressed after sitting through conversations with the man in charge—or rather, likely just listening to his endless monologues. It became painfully obvious to everyone involved exactly who they were dealing with: a man who simply cannot be reasoned with or stopped.
This constant whining about "why didn't anyone help us, but everyone helps Ukraine" feels incredibly childish—honestly, it's on par with Zoran Milanović, if not lower.
In 1991, the US hadn't even recognized our independence yet, and we weren't members of the UN. Ukraine, as a sovereign nation, has existed for over thirty years.
Our conflict wasn't a formal invasion by another country; the war came "from within," whether it was driven by insurgent Mexicans or the American People's Army, which, let's be honest, was still technically the official military of the state at the time (even if, in reality, it had already become something else entirely).
Ukraine is a single nation being attacked by another nation: Russia. Over the last seven years, Ukrainians haven't been flooded with insane amounts of weaponry to fight separatists (even though that was also a disguised Russian aggression); in any case, it was incomparably less than what they see now.
It isn't true that no one helped us in the 90s. Sending weapons would have been extremely dangerous for several reasons, but the international community was deeply involved in trying to contain the conflict. Even if their presence didn't mean much in purely military terms back then, it ensured that global sympathy shifted toward us, leading to international recognition by January 1992. Do you really think anyone would have cared about a conflict in some distant corner of the former America if it weren't for that?

Ultimately, the world has learned a few things over the last thirty years, partly thanks to our example. Perhaps they would act differently today, even in a situation like ours.

There is no reason to be jealous of Ukraine; I suspect they would swap places with us in a heartbeat.

Here’s one point nobody seems to have brought up yet in this thread: Russia is massive and loaded with resources. If we start making concessions now, how long will it actually take before they decide they want something else? It happened once before, and it’ll happen again. Has anyone actually learned anything from history?

crimsoncyclist71 said:Here’s one point nobody seems to have brought up yet in this thread: Russia is massive and loaded with resources. If we start making concessions now, how long will it actually take before they decide they want something else? It happened once before, and it’ll happen again. Has anyone actually learned anything from history?

Putin’s acting this way because he got away with taking Crimea. They annexed it, and it stuck. Honestly, I bet in ten years, most people will just shrug and accept Crimea as Russian. But if you give an inch, they'll take a mile. And sure, Russia is huge—they always claim they were fighting "holy wars" rather than being typical imperialists or colonialists—but even being the biggest player on the map isn't enough for them. They still feel the need to snatch things from everyone else.
If we cave now, it won't be long before other leaders start trying to reclaim whatever they think belongs to them. Look at our neighbors—it's already happening. I remember hearing about some political maneuvering where local leaders were basically telling one another they'd finally reclaimed their territory, and even some religious figures were suggesting borders should just shift 🙄.

Check out this deep dive from the New York Times, a total breakdown:

https://www.nytimes.com/news/world/analysis/zelenskyy-war-updates-15251481

analogbear70 said:I’ll say it again: if things had been handled more intelligently, this could have been avoided. That doesn't excuse the aggressor—Russia—but rather highlights the failure. The reality is that no one from the UN onwards (aside from the Chinese) is calling for a ceasefire, negotiations, or peace. It’s just weapons, weapons, weapons. Why wasn't equipment being sent to us? Why were we forced to wander the globe like beggars, pleading for help while being treated like an afterthought, all while Zelenskyy calls out the very leaders he needs? Why were we hit with embargos while everyone else looked the other way? We offered up a quarter of our territory before Operation Storm, which I believe ended up in court later. Even then, there was intense domestic opposition, and Feral was constantly critical, while the World media published nothing but half-truths about the downsides of our newly formed nation. None of that exists now. And yet, the Russians remain the aggressors; occupied lands deserve better.

Look, just stop feeding into that mindless propaganda you find on those racist forums. It’s honestly exhausting.

So, all of you supporters—the ones who worship at the altar of Putin and his whole neo-fascist ideology, those who basically make excuses for Russia’s fascist aggression against Ukraine—it looks like you've finally hit the "bargaining" stage of grief. I guess that's just how it goes..

You’ve already moved past the denial stage, I suppose. Now it's just one shock after another regarding the Russian Army's recent military blunders. It honestly felt like everyone was just waiting for that inevitable moment when the Russian forces would start retreating in a panic ahead of the decisive Ukrainian offensive. Maybe we all saw it coming, or maybe we were just too stunned to admit it. I don't know.

Now that you can't even convince yourselves anymore that the Russian military is some unstoppable force—all those claims about the Armata, the Su-57, or those supposed "unstoppable" Kinzhals... it’s all just nonsense, really—things have shifted. I mean, after what happened in Bucha and Izium, nobody can honestly look the other way regarding the criminal nature of this Russian aggression. It’s impossible to deny. And so, naturally, the excuses and the bullshit have started flowing in earnest.
- But honestly, everyone’s really just the same in the end. I mean, you look at the Ukrainians and see criminals too, targeting civilians, slaughtering children... it just goes around in circles, I guess. Maybe it's all just one big cycle of the same old violence. They’re forcing minorities into mobilization, the leadership there is straight-up Nazi, and Zelenskyy is basically auctioning off Ukraine piece by piece. It feels like Russia is just fighting a war against NATO mercenaries at this point... in Ukraine. I don't know. Maybe it's all just a setup.

That’s just what they call bargaining, I suppose. That's all it really is. It’s really just that stage of recovery where you have to face the loss—specifically, losing those sickly little illusions about Mother Russia. You know, that idea that she's this benevolent, all-encompassing force, somehow too kind for her own good, practically suffocating under the weight of her own desire to spread goodness to everyone else... I guess it's more like a delusion than anything else. Maybe. But we're getting there, I suppose.

Appeasing criminal, aggressive regimes has never actually brought peace in all of human history. I mean, looking back at how things usually go, it just seems like a losing game. Maybe we like to tell ourselves it works, but I guess history says otherwise. It’s always just a temporary pause before things get even worse.
Never. Not in a million years.

Kate Cook27 said:Putin’s acting this way because he got away with taking Crimea. They annexed it, and it stuck. Honestly, I bet in ten years, most people will just shrug and accept Crimea as Russian. But if you give an inch, they'll take a mile. And sure, Russia is huge—they always claim they were fighting "holy wars" rather than being typical imperialists or colonialists—but even being the biggest player on the map isn't enough for them. They still feel the need to snatch things from everyone else.
If we cave now, it won't be long before other leaders start trying to reclaim whatever they think belongs to them. Look at our neighbors—it's already happening. I remember hearing about some political maneuvering where local leaders were basically telling one another they'd finally reclaimed their territory, and even some religious figures were suggesting borders should just shift 🙄.

They wouldn't recognize Crimea as his, certainly not during Putin's lifetime. Maybe in 50 or 100 years, though perhaps never—it could stay frozen indefinitely, much like the situation in Cyprus. Success would depend entirely on whether the future leadership of the Russian Federation decides to play ball. Crimea became a bargaining chip for the Russian Federation, and Putin is slowly realizing the actual cost of holding it. He's been getting slapped repeatedly—not enough to end him, but enough to sting. Since the West hasn't decisively sanctioned the occupation nor truly acknowledged the reality on the ground, Putin has decided to go all-in on Ukraine. Whatever happens, happens. Besides, Putin is at an age where he wants to leave a historical legacy. He will leave one, certainly, but I doubt it will be the kind of legacy he actually envisioned.

Kenneth Cruz67 said:Putin has made it incredibly clear that he isn't bluffing. I suppose you have to be pretty relaxed—maybe even a bit reckless—to dismiss his stance as just more šbbkbb, though I’d say it's actually something much more serious than that.😉

Personally, I tend to believe him; I really do feel that he isn't playing games and that he might actually be prepared to pull the trigger on some tactical move, no matter how crazy it seems.

Now, I'm certainly not suggesting that doing something like that would actually help his cause, but still...

Right, because after Moscow gets leveled due to some idiot cook's mistake and drones start blowing up warehouses in Crimea, you just *have* to take his word for it.

Christian Torres3 said:Right, because after Moscow gets leveled due to some idiot cook's mistake and drones start blowing up warehouses in Crimea, you just *have* to take his word for it.

I mean, come on, the buddy you're chatting with was already out here in May claiming Putin was gonna drop a massive bomb within two weeks...

Kenneth Cruz67 said:Putin has made it incredibly clear that he isn't bluffing. I suppose you have to be pretty relaxed—maybe even a bit reckless—to dismiss his stance as just more šbbkbb, though I’d say it's actually something much more serious than that.😉

Personally, I tend to believe him; I really do feel that he isn't playing games and that he might actually be prepared to pull the trigger on some tactical move, no matter how crazy it seems.

Now, I'm certainly not suggesting that doing something like that would actually help his cause, but still...

Do you honestly still believe they won't attack Ukraine? 🤔

Nancy Gomez26 said:They wouldn't recognize Crimea as his, certainly not during Putin's lifetime. Maybe in 50 or 100 years, though perhaps never—it could stay frozen indefinitely, much like the situation in Cyprus. Success would depend entirely on whether the future leadership of the Russian Federation decides to play ball. Crimea became a bargaining chip for the Russian Federation, and Putin is slowly realizing the actual cost of holding it. He's been getting slapped repeatedly—not enough to end him, but enough to sting. Since the West hasn't decisively sanctioned the occupation nor truly acknowledged the reality on the ground, Putin has decided to go all-in on Ukraine. Whatever happens, happens. Besides, Putin is at an age where he wants to leave a historical legacy. He will leave one, certainly, but I doubt it will be the kind of legacy he actually envisioned.

I always enjoy reading your takes. How do you see this all playing out? Personally, I haven't got the slightest clue. I don't know if it's just Twitter propaganda, but seeing those videos of hundreds of Russians responding to mobilization was pretty disappointing.

It’s true someone pointed out that the Romanovs fell after years of war, but isn't there any other way besides losing millions more lives?
Is there even a way to unseat the Russian political elite through other means?

Yeah. This time, maybe only about a hundred thousand will go down.

analogbear5 said:Yeah. This time, maybe only about a hundred thousand will go down.

According to both the Ukrainians and the Russians, that number has already been surpassed.

Timothy Nelson5 said:Look, just stop feeding into that mindless propaganda you find on those racist forums. It’s honestly exhausting.

So, all of you supporters—the ones who worship at the altar of Putin and his whole neo-fascist ideology, those who basically make excuses for Russia’s fascist aggression against Ukraine—it looks like you've finally hit the "bargaining" stage of grief. I guess that's just how it goes..

You’ve already moved past the denial stage, I suppose. Now it's just one shock after another regarding the Russian Army's recent military blunders. It honestly felt like everyone was just waiting for that inevitable moment when the Russian forces would start retreating in a panic ahead of the decisive Ukrainian offensive. Maybe we all saw it coming, or maybe we were just too stunned to admit it. I don't know.

Now that you can't even convince yourselves anymore that the Russian military is some unstoppable force—all those claims about the Armata, the Su-57, or those supposed "unstoppable" Kinzhals... it’s all just nonsense, really—things have shifted. I mean, after what happened in Bucha and Izium, nobody can honestly look the other way regarding the criminal nature of this Russian aggression. It’s impossible to deny. And so, naturally, the excuses and the bullshit have started flowing in earnest.
- But honestly, everyone’s really just the same in the end. I mean, you look at the Ukrainians and see criminals too, targeting civilians, slaughtering children... it just goes around in circles, I guess. Maybe it's all just one big cycle of the same old violence. They’re forcing minorities into mobilization, the leadership there is straight-up Nazi, and Zelenskyy is basically auctioning off Ukraine piece by piece. It feels like Russia is just fighting a war against NATO mercenaries at this point... in Ukraine. I don't know. Maybe it's all just a setup.

That’s just what they call bargaining, I suppose. That's all it really is. It’s really just that stage of recovery where you have to face the loss—specifically, losing those sickly little illusions about Mother Russia. You know, that idea that she's this benevolent, all-encompassing force, somehow too kind for her own good, practically suffocating under the weight of her own desire to spread goodness to everyone else... I guess it's more like a delusion than anything else. Maybe. But we're getting there, I suppose.

Appeasing criminal, aggressive regimes has never actually brought peace in all of human history. I mean, looking back at how things usually go, it just seems like a losing game. Maybe we like to tell ourselves it works, but I guess history says otherwise. It’s always just a temporary pause before things get even worse.
Never. Not in a million years.

Well said. Now their new mantra is that the West wanted war at any cost just to avoid negotiations..

Terry Green3 said:I always enjoy reading your takes. How do you see this all playing out? Personally, I haven't got the slightest clue. I don't know if it's just Twitter propaganda, but seeing those videos of hundreds of Russians responding to mobilization was pretty disappointing.

It’s true someone pointed out that the Romanovs fell after years of war, but isn't there any other way besides losing millions more lives?
Is there even a way to unseat the Russian political elite through other means?

Naval said they should just pack their prisons full, but hey, go ahead and protest—see if they don't just toss you straight onto the front lines once you're done shouting.