Russia's invasion of Ukraine: Part 5

rowdypilot53 said:Russ sees Ukraine as its own sphere of influence, essentially its backyard, and they have no desire to see a hostile government taking root there. We saw the domino effect triggered by Maidan, though the friction has been constant since the collapse of the USSR...

If I briefly lose my mind and accept the idea that Ukraine is part of Russia and Ukrainians are just Russians in denial, then the whole situation becomes even more twisted.
Just imagine slaughtering your own people; it’s no wonder everyone is fleeing their sphere of influence as fast as they can.

dustyfalcon122 said:It’s becoming obvious to them now, isn't it? They realize they're losing this war, and now they're basically begging everyone to just leave Crimea alone. 🙂

The whole conflict has reached this breaking point where both sides are just digging in their heels, acting without any real logic or foresight. It is an incredibly dangerous stage of affairs, truly. We absolutely need to de-escalate this however we can, because when things get like this, pure irrationality takes over and common sense just flies right out the window.

rowdytiger13 said:If I briefly lose my mind and accept the idea that Ukraine is part of Russia and Ukrainians are just Russians in denial, then the whole situation becomes even more twisted.
Just imagine slaughtering your own people; it’s no wonder everyone is fleeing their sphere of influence as fast as they can.

History shows us that the Russians simply lack the capacity to establish or maintain a sphere of influence, and it’s for a very basic reason: they don't even possess a shred of respect for themselves, let alone anyone else.
Best,

Kimberly Perez82 said:The whole conflict has reached this breaking point where both sides are just digging in their heels, acting without any real logic or foresight. It is an incredibly dangerous stage of affairs, truly. We absolutely need to de-escalate this however we can, because when things get like this, pure irrationality takes over and common sense just flies right out the window.

But how exactly are you supposed to de-escalate?
The fascists started this conquest and now they're losing ground and throwing nuclear threats around.
The Ukrainians have zero reason to stop, and besides, why would we give other fascists any ideas by backing down?
If you think we should just hand over territory to Russ, maybe start by giving up your own house first.

dustyfalcon122 said:But how exactly are you supposed to de-escalate?
The fascists started this conquest and now they're losing ground and throwing nuclear threats around.
The Ukrainians have zero reason to stop, and besides, why would we give other fascists any ideas by backing down?
If you think we should just hand over territory to Russ, maybe start by giving up your own house first.

By defeating the fascists, obviously. It’s the only way forward.
Best,

rowdypilot53 said:Russ sees Ukraine as its own sphere of influence, essentially its backyard, and they have no desire to see a hostile government taking root there. We saw the domino effect triggered by Maidan, though the friction has been constant since the collapse of the USSR...

Everything about this situation is perfectly clear because if you look at two brothers who start fighting like this, stealing each other's wives and beating up their own kids, there is absolutely no way they could ever consider themselves family again, let alone try to live under the same roof,😒

Kimberly Perez82 said:The whole conflict has reached this breaking point where both sides are just digging in their heels, acting without any real logic or foresight. It is an incredibly dangerous stage of affairs, truly. We absolutely need to de-escalate this however we can, because when things get like this, pure irrationality takes over and common sense just flies right out the window.

That’s just how it looks from Paris or Berlin, where people are starting to feel the pinch in their wallets—and nobody likes seeing their standard of living drop. Besides, nobody is actually sweating those childish nuclear threats since only Russia is packing them. Even the bad guys want to stick around to enjoy life. In fact, they probably want to stay more than anyone.
Just try telling Ukrainians it would be "convenient" to hand over some of their land to Russia just because some Germans can't vacation wherever they want anymore. Zelenskyy gave a pretty perfect response to that line of thinking: "Great idea. Let's start with your territory."
Silence follows.

Bryan Booth82 said:History shows us that the Russians simply lack the capacity to establish or maintain a sphere of influence, and it’s for a very basic reason: they don't even possess a shred of respect for themselves, let alone anyone else.
Best,

Even if they win a war.
What's the point if the EU finds another way to buy energy?

cosmicgull52 said:Exactly. They need to back down, otherwise we could be looking at full-scale war. 🙏 Fuck those guys. I want nothing for them but a total retreat across the bridge.

Right now, Putin is using his military and police forces to keep both his own country and those neighboring smaller nations he’s been bullying for decades absolutely terrified. But, if things ever escalate into a direct conflict with NATO, the Russian military would likely get crushed. Once that happens, the whole "control" thing evaporates, and it becomes incredibly easy for all those oppressed little states—and I'm thinking about Belarus too—to turn against Russia. Plus, you'd almost certainly see a massive civil war break out within Russia itself as different factions start fighting tooth and nail for control...

boldmarlin32 said:Even if they win a war.
What's the point if the EU finds another way to buy energy?

They can't "win" a war they've already lost.
What’s actually far more devastating for Russia is that they have permanently forfeited their foothold in the EU—especially considering how much work went into building those relationships over decades.

Now, all they have left is this naive, desperate mantra about reshaping the global order, where they imagine themselves being... what was it again?
Best,

boldmarlin32 said:Even if they win a war.
What's the point if the EU finds another way to buy energy?

Honestly, Russia is a loser in the long run anyway because the rest of the world won't be relying on their energy sources anymore. At this stage, the absolute priority should be de-escalating the conflict and just letting everything play out naturally.

Kimberly Perez82 said:The whole conflict has reached this breaking point where both sides are just digging in their heels, acting without any real logic or foresight. It is an incredibly dangerous stage of affairs, truly. We absolutely need to de-escalate this however we can, because when things get like this, pure irrationality takes over and common sense just flies right out the window.

Russia isn't nearly as tough as everyone thought, so now they're playing dirty and using asymmetric tactics. I mean, that shopping mall? That wasn't "collateral damage." It was the whole point.
Since Ukrainians are the underdog here, they don't really have any other options—they're using the same logic.
Hit the refineries, take out that bridge (I don't know why they're waiting), go after industrial hubs, ships, whatever. High-value targets, but they still try to avoid killing civilians because, historically speaking, they want to keep looking like the "good guys."
I mean, a war crimes tribunal can happen whenever... maybe under some future Russian government...

Kimberly Perez82 said:Honestly, Russia is a loser in the long run anyway because the rest of the world won't be relying on their energy sources anymore. At this stage, the absolute priority should be de-escalating the conflict and just letting everything play out naturally.

Oh, it’s certainly taking its "natural course," alright! I mean, we're already seeing Ukrainian partisans starting to blow up those pro-Russian mayors...

Thomas Nelson25 said:Putin and his little band of thugs... they’re just sitting there praying that a harsh winter and rising inflation will shift the tide of public opinion, hoping that both Europeans and Americans will eventually lose interest in supporting Ukraine.
And we aren't just talking about policy here—we're talking about a massive amount of actual aid...

Honestly, if it weren't for the internet, where everyday citizens can show their direct support for Ukraine, I truly believe some shady characters in the high halls of the European Union would have already sold them out.

silentnomad7 said:Honestly, if it weren't for the internet, where everyday citizens can show their direct support for Ukraine, I truly believe some shady characters in the high halls of the European Union would have already sold them out.

"High-level" is the keyword here.
They act like they know way more (about the reasons for the war or Western goals) than the average European or even Americans—basically the whole liberal democratic world, for that matter.

What I'm getting at is that public opinion really does make the difference in keeping this support alive.
Orban is actually hitting the nail on the head with his latest statement on this. You probably caught it.
But look, we all know he's not exactly Ukraine's biggest fan... it's that old historical baggage and stuff.
The whole "small nation" thing, blah blah blah... anyway, I'm rambling now.

He's really talking about the fear of inflation and recession.

Henry Sullivan4 said:Everything about this situation is perfectly clear because if you look at two brothers who start fighting like this, stealing each other's wives and beating up their own kids, there is absolutely no way they could ever consider themselves family again, let alone try to live under the same roof,😒

If they had succeeded in seizing all or most of Ukraine, they would have likely indoctrinated the population within a generation or two. Those who refused would simply leave, while those remaining would eventually be assimilated into Russia. I doubt there would be sustained resistance akin to what we saw in Afghanistan. That is merely my perspective, though I lack deep insight; I only know a few young Ukrainians living abroad who are, predictably, fiercely opposed to Russia now...

Richard Wilson4 said:Maybe two months ago, or even three.

I guess Ukraine just doesn't have the people or the gear left to actually hold them off anymore.....
And that Russian steamroller? It’s already warmed up and ready to roll......

Thomas Nelson25 said:"High-level" is the keyword here.
They act like they know way more (about the reasons for the war or Western goals) than the average European or even Americans—basically the whole liberal democratic world, for that matter.

What I'm getting at is that public opinion really does make the difference in keeping this support alive.
Orban is actually hitting the nail on the head with his latest statement on this. You probably caught it.
But look, we all know he's not exactly Ukraine's biggest fan... it's that old historical baggage and stuff.
The whole "small nation" thing, blah blah blah... anyway, I'm rambling now.

He's really talking about the fear of inflation and recession.

The only thing European politicians are truly terrified of is losing their seats, and that dictates exactly how they behave. As long as the citizens of the European Union continue to back Ukraine, the high-level policy won't shift toward anything else... that's just how democracy works.

walden said:.... Back in 2008, NATO said Ukraine could join, and Putin basically claimed it was his backyard and he’d stop them because it threatened him. Well, Ukraine and NATO just kept moving forward regardless—and now we're seeing the fallout. That's the bottom line for anyone actually interested. Everyone else can go back to reading the tabloids.

Talk about paper tiger imperialism.
Look at Sweden and Finland.
And then there's Ukraine.
So much for Putin's "master strategy."
(Word is he got played by informants—and mind you, that's exactly where he comes from—so he clearly miscalculated how much actual power he had.)

silentnomad7 said:The only thing European politicians are truly terrified of is losing their seats, and that dictates exactly how they behave. As long as the citizens of the European Union continue to back Ukraine, the high-level policy won't shift toward anything else... that's just how democracy works.

Vladimir Putin claims there's some elaborate plot to screw over Russia.

So either everyone's lying, or the truth is somewhere in the middle, as usual.
Obviously, Russia isn't exactly a liberal democracy—it's a nasty regime fueled by gas money and a handful of billionaires.

I'd trust "our guys" more any day. ☕