Sanctions on Russia

George Robinson43 said:True, but the entirety of Western Europe has successfully broken free from Russian influence. They simply source gas from wherever they need to replenish their reserves. There isn't a single drop of Russian gas flowing through those pipelines anymore.
Since countries like Poland and the Baltic states already transitioned from zero Russian imports to being fully independent by 2024, the heavy lifting falls solely on the trio of Germany, Austria, and Canada.
Given that some sort of FSB agent will likely take power even after Putin is gone, getting any kind of unconditional gas is an impossibility. That’s why the permanent breakup with Russia is the only logical path forward.

+Italy

My bad, messed up when I uploaded that second image above.
Light blue: gas from Russia
Dark: gas from other countries
Gray: all other energy sources

Paul Anderson7 said:Thanks for laying all that out. Looking at individual countries, it seems like most of them actually have decent alternatives lined up; sure, things might get a bit pricier in the short term, but we aren't looking at a total disaster. Germany, Italy, and Austria will definitely have to tighten their belts for a while, but in the long run, there’s a path forward.

I suspect the sanctions are actually going to stick, too. It feels like policy is genuinely shifting toward cutting ties with Russia, especially since the "heavy hitters" can actually afford to walk away from the table.

The only "real" headache in this whole mess is Germany.

People tend to go overboard when they start bashing Germany, but let's be real—what happens over there isn't just an internal issue; it's a massive problem for the entire European Union. German industry is so much more powerful than the rest of the EU combined that if they catch a cold, everyone else gets pneumonia. Germany is definitely going to pull through—they've got the cash to make it work (and honestly, they might even use this chaos to fundamentally overhaul their military and political playbook)—but they can't just start making radical, knee-jerk cuts whenever someone feels like it... that would wreck the rest of the European Union too.

The whole situation is such a massive self-inflicted wound and a colossal blunder by Russia and Putin that it's almost hard to wrap your head around. Of course, Putin and his inner circle don't give a damn how this hits regular Russians; those people and their kids will still end up enjoying life over in the West anyway (which, let's face it, is the peak of hypocrisy). But man, did they screw over their own country—that's a fact.

Germany is obviously going to take the biggest hit, but a lot of Germans actually view this as a bit of a "gift" in disguise. It’s given them the chance to pivot their entire political and security doctrine. I mean, suddenly having access to 100 billion Euros in quick cash and beefing up the military is a massive shift, not to mention shipping weapons to a conflict zone—that's huge too. Energy is just one piece of the puzzle; yeah, they'll suffer a bit in that department for a while, but the whole story isn't just about fuel. It's way bigger than that.

Based on the discussion above, it seems we aren't even using Russian gas anymore, nor is Ukraine. While that’s technically possible, I find it hard to swallow.

The Kurds tried to get a head start on planning gas exports into Europe, and then—boom—the Iranians decide to launch a few missiles right at the house where all that was being organized. So much for "rapid diversification." 🤣

Nathan Evans78 said:The Kurds tried to get a head start on planning gas exports into Europe, and then—boom—the Iranians decide to launch a few missiles right at the house where all that was being organized. So much for "rapid diversification." 🤣

Man, seriously... you and people like you are basically perfect case studies for some kind of psychological deep dive.

Alright, let’s say you actually have a point—but please, walk me through why you’re even getting a kick out of this? Why would anyone living in the States or the EU care enough about these issues to side with Russia or cheer when the European Union hits a rough patch?
Do you just genuinely love Russia and their whole worldview? Or is it more like you just can't stand the EU and the West, so that's what drives you? What's the actual deal with you? What's the underlying motivation that makes you look at the world through such a weird lens? 🤔

Sociopaths are pretty interesting creatures. If he were living in Ukraine, would he be out there running sabotage ops in Kyiv or tipping off the Russians with intel?

Nah—it’s way riskier than just anonymous trolling. It’s sociopathy, sure, but the harmless kind.

Brenda Murphy3 said:Man, seriously... you and people like you are basically perfect case studies for some kind of psychological deep dive.

Alright, let’s say you actually have a point—but please, walk me through why you’re even getting a kick out of this? Why would anyone living in the States or the EU care enough about these issues to side with Russia or cheer when the European Union hits a rough patch?
Do you just genuinely love Russia and their whole worldview? Or is it more like you just can't stand the EU and the West, so that's what drives you? What's the actual deal with you? What's the underlying motivation that makes you look at the world through such a weird lens? 🤔

Hold on now—you really think you can build an entire psychological profile of me based on one single piece of information? You should honestly go apply for a job with the Department of Justice cybercrime unit; they could always use talents like yours. 🙏🙏

Nathan Evans78 said:Hold on now—you really think you can build an entire psychological profile of me based on one single piece of information? You should honestly go apply for a job with the Department of Justice cybercrime unit; they could always use talents like yours. 🙏🙏

It's not actually that hard, ☕
to figure out.

Nancy Gomez26 said:Everything you just laid out implies that, for investors, this is precisely the moment to pick up stakes in Nord Stream 2 (assuming, of course, the price is right and fits one's tolerance for the very real risk and uncertainty involved). My view is that gas from the Russian Federation remains—technologically speaking—the most cost-effective energy source for the foreseeable future. Since the only way to deliver it without losing its primary advantage is via pipeline, now is the window to invest. You buy when it's cheap and sell when it's expensive. While many see today's situation as a living hell due to the war, others may see it as a compelling investment opportunity. It simply requires capital, vision, and a certain level of nerve. Who dares, wins.

I don't know; what you're suggesting sounds a lot like buying into the distribution of Iranian oil back in the '80s to me. I'm not so sure the person who "gambled" on something like that ever actually saw their money again.🤔 🤔

Unlike you (which doesn't necessarily mean I'm right), I see manual gas exports trending downward in the near future. I also anticipate that gas consumption will eventually drop off further down the road.
How much capital those assumptions will actually attract? That is anyone's guess.

Best regards,

Arthur Watson4 said:It's not actually that hard, ☕
to figure out.

Look at him getting all worked up 😁
Someone actually read it.

Bryan Booth82 said:I don't know; what you're suggesting sounds a lot like buying into the distribution of Iranian oil back in the '80s to me. I'm not so sure the person who "gambled" on something like that ever actually saw their money again.🤔 🤔

Unlike you (which doesn't necessarily mean I'm right), I see manual gas exports trending downward in the near future. I also anticipate that gas consumption will eventually drop off further down the road.
How much capital those assumptions will actually attract? That is anyone's guess.

Best regards,

The reality is, the loss in value for Nord Stream 2 is already baked in. Some debts have been written off as sunk costs, but the biggest hit is just the fact that its importance isn't coming back. Nancy Gomez26 is betting it will, but everything points to the contrary.

We'll see who's closer to the truth by watching how the creditors move.

Brenda Murphy3 As stated by:
The sheer scale of this self-inflicted wound by Russia and Putin is staggering. It’s an absolute catastrophe of their own making. Of course, the Kremlin and their inner circle couldn't care less about how this fallout hits the average Russian citizen. There is a certain peak hypocrisy in the way they operate—acting as if their own children will somehow find refuge and comfort in the West while they dismantle their own nation's future. They are effectively burning down their own house while dreaming of vacationing in someone else's. But make no mistake: the damage dealt to their own country is undeniable and permanent.

Forget about the immediate chaos for a second—look at the bigger picture. This situation is going to fundamentally shift Russia's standing on the global stage, which directly hits the ego of its leader. And we all know that’s his primary driver. Up until now, he’s maintained a certain level of influence; people actually paused to ask what the Kremlin thought about major shifts, and more often than not, they listened. That era is over. For the foreseeable future, nobody is going to be checking in with them for guidance, and even when the dust settles, that seat at the table won't be returned easily. It will take a massive paradigm shift—or perhaps it won't happen at all—before things return to any semblance of the previous status quo.

We’ve got a bit of a headache situation with gas right now. See, any revenue Russia loses from cutting back their exports to the European Union could easily be offset by just cranking up the price for everyone else in Europe. Meanwhile, Ukraine is getting hit directly because they lose out on those transit fees, which are all about volume. Plus, if cutting ties with Russian gas leads to people burning way more coal to compensate...

By the way, if you want to see how messy the European energy crisis really is, just look at Poland. They've pulled in hundreds of billions in EU funds over the last fifteen years, yet they’re still relying on coal for about 40% of their total energy needs—and yeah, that includes transportation too. But honestly, it wouldn't have mattered much if the European Union had been smarter back when the USA, China, or Russia were being even more reckless about decarbonization.
Now we're dealing with wars on top of decarbonization... you can probably guess who's actually going to give a damn about that stuff...

Nathan Evans78 said:Hold on now—you really think you can build an entire psychological profile of me based on one single piece of information? You should honestly go apply for a job with the Department of Justice cybercrime unit; they could always use talents like yours. 🙏🙏

😁

aha...😒
And let's be real, this isn't even your first time pulling this stunt... you've posted dozens of these exact same things...

Unless, of course, someone is actually paying you to spout this nonsense (which I highly doubt... honestly, what kind of twisted logic is driving you to write stuff like this?
😁

analogbear5 said:The reality is, the loss in value for Nord Stream 2 is already baked in. Some debts have been written off as sunk costs, but the biggest hit is just the fact that its importance isn't coming back. Nancy Gomez26 is betting it will, but everything points to the contrary.

We'll see who's closer to the truth by watching how the creditors move.

Creditors lent their capital toward what was, at the time, a promising venture in hopes of a return. If they suddenly decide to exit the project and try to dump it for pennies on the dollar—there would certainly be buyers. The only question is how much anyone would actually bid and how much these people are willing to lose (assuming they can afford to lose anything at all). Right now, it’s a terrible time to sell, but if a panic sets in—which the media is more than happy to fuel—it could happen. The sensationalist headlines claiming this is a total disaster and that the project's value has plummeted to near zero? That simply isn't the truth. A true failure would occur if someone physically destroyed the pipeline, making it useless; nobody wants to play that game because it puts everyone at risk. I understand that if profit isn't immediate, the media quickly writes a project off as a lost cause, but in the real world, very little ever goes exactly according to plan.
Russia will find its footing eventually, and that pipeline will run. In fact, it would provide the cheapest gas in the European Union, something no one can truly turn down. When you force politics onto an economy, things end badly—that is precisely what we are witnessing with Russia right now.

analogbear5 said:The reality is, the loss in value for Nord Stream 2 is already baked in. Some debts have been written off as sunk costs, but the biggest hit is just the fact that its importance isn't coming back. Nancy Gomez26 is betting it will, but everything points to the contrary.

We'll see who's closer to the truth by watching how the creditors move.

Over in the West (looking specifically at Germany), there’s been talk for ages about the desperate need for a completely different approach to energy production.
This war is going to force our hand, shifting the conversation from mere pricing to actual physical supply—because what we’ve been hearing about for years? We're finally starting to feel the sting of it.
For the average person, it’s not necessarily the cost itself that hurts—it’s not the difference between paying $1.60 or $2.30 for gas—but that extra digit at the front? That is incredibly aggravating.
The same goes for electricity; nobody enjoys seeing their annual bill jump by an extra $300, even if they can technically afford it. It’s infuriating.

I’m sitting here watching a morning news segment right now, and they’re pitching these solar "power plants" designed for a balcony that cost anywhere from $400 to $800... supposedly "plug and play," claiming they'll slash your monthly utility bill.

Now, let’s not be naive, but investing in ventures like that probably offers a much better shot at growing your capital than throwing money into Russian gas.

Best regards,

rustywalker82 said:We’ve got a bit of a headache situation with gas right now. See, any revenue Russia loses from cutting back their exports to the European Union could easily be offset by just cranking up the price for everyone else in Europe. Meanwhile, Ukraine is getting hit directly because they lose out on those transit fees, which are all about volume. Plus, if cutting ties with Russian gas leads to people burning way more coal to compensate...

By the way, if you want to see how messy the European energy crisis really is, just look at Poland. They've pulled in hundreds of billions in EU funds over the last fifteen years, yet they’re still relying on coal for about 40% of their total energy needs—and yeah, that includes transportation too. But honestly, it wouldn't have mattered much if the European Union had been smarter back when the USA, China, or Russia were being even more reckless about decarbonization.
Now we're dealing with wars on top of decarbonization... you can probably guess who's actually going to give a damn about that stuff...

The issue with the "problem" you've laid out is quite simple: Russia isn't the world's only gas producer, and those massive gas reserves aren't confined to Russian borders alone.
We could very well reach a point where the West stops buying Russian gas entirely—simply because they refuse to settle the bill in rubles. If that happens, Russia ends up sitting on a mountain of surplus gas, which China will undoubtedly notice. Once China steps in to undercut them, gas prices globally could actually plummet.

Isn't that exactly the kind of economic squeeze that helped bring down the USSR?

Best regards,

Bryan Booth82 said:The issue with the "problem" you've laid out is quite simple: Russia isn't the world's only gas producer, and those massive gas reserves aren't confined to Russian borders alone.
We could very well reach a point where the West stops buying Russian gas entirely—simply because they refuse to settle the bill in rubles. If that happens, Russia ends up sitting on a mountain of surplus gas, which China will undoubtedly notice. Once China steps in to undercut them, gas prices globally could actually plummet.

Isn't that exactly the kind of economic squeeze that helped bring down the USSR?

Best regards,

Look, a total cutoff of Russian gas is only going to happen if Russia pulls the trigger themselves (since the West doesn't have any rubles to play with). This wouldn't be some big move by Europe; it’d be a Russian move.
And honestly? Gas wouldn't get cheaper. It’d stay way more expensive than it was before the crisis or the war started. We'd still be importing from Russia because, let's face it, they're basically irreplaceable right now (plus, we'd be scrambling to fire up old coal or fuel oil plants that have been sitting cold for years).

There's just no easy way to swap out major suppliers—especially when you're looking at places halfway across the world—without both the old providers and the new ones, along with the logistics companies, hiking up their rates.

There are definitely ways to seriously cripple the Russian economy without all this nonsense about people shooting themselves in the foot (which would just cause a crash even harder than the one the Russians are facing).

Arthur Watson4 said:It's not actually that hard, ☕
to figure out.

Honestly, this guy thinks he’s some kind of visionary because he’s buying up NFTs, yet he expects everyone to take his takes on inflation and wartime politics seriously.
Plus, he clearly loses all composure whenever someone starts talking about targeting an energy plant... just totally loses it.
Trying to have a decent debate in the DMs with this one is basically impossible...