Sanctions on Russia

Nancy Gomez26 said:The source of the risk lies in political decisions, which represent an unpredictable variable for insurance companies. This differs from most other risks where you can calculate probability with reasonable precision. Politicians can simply decide and legislate whatever they please, particularly within an autocratic system. Any nation can act this way, though some certainly do so more frequently than others.

We saw how easily our leaders and European politicians jumped to vote for sanctions—all in that desperate, heated rush to play wrecking ball to the Russian economy.
Isn't that an unpredictable risk too? And I don't just mean when it comes to Russia.

Whether they return the planes right now or not doesn't really matter—nobody’s going to touch leasing aircraft to Russia again. They're just sitting ducks for retaliation if relations sour further—easy target for some payback. If they actually decide to hand them back, I guess that means the risk level has finally stabilized. At least, that's how I see it.

Nancy Gomez26 said:Yes, they likely overplayed their hand. They need those funds unfrozen just so they can skim off the top for "account maintenance" and other various overhead costs. Bankers always prioritize their own pockets first; looking out for themselves comes long before anyone else.

Look, you're missing the point—you don't actually need a third of your balance just to cover account maintenance and those little extra fees. Even in places like Switzerland, where they’ve started charging negative interest just for the privilege of holding your cash, we're talking less than 1% a year. It's pretty much the same story with most other financial services or investment products out there.

slyfox43 said:Exports to Russia compared to this time last year.

China is down by 50%.

https://twitter.com/IikkaKorhonen/st...86893271715840

It feels like China and Russia are teaming up to leave the West completely stripped bare.

You mean down 26% compared to last year? Maybe the factor isn't just war and sanctions—it could be those lockdowns over in China, too.

wiredseal7 said:Why would I condemn it? Who started the whole freezing assets and sanctions game first?
Russian moves are just a response to the economic war waged against them—you know, eye for an eye, tooth for a tooth.

I’d criticize it if it happened before all this, but Russia isn't the aggressor here—they're playing defense.

Besides, they did it to keep the company breathing and save jobs. That's actually responsible policy—unlike the European approach, where I assume some Frenchman will end up footing the bill for Renault with a few billion euros.

It's not even comparable to Gazprom, which would be pumping gas regardless of whether they were expropriated or not.

Renault agreed to it? Well, can't blame them... no point complaining when the deal is already done.
They probably got some compensation—which is obviously being kept hush-hush because of that hysterical Zelensky administration running around lobbying and acting like clowns.

Pretty much like how the Russians agreed to buy the A330. Everyone's happy. 😁

You see someone post a link to an article they clearly haven't even bothered to read, only to get a lengthy rebuttal from someone else who also hasn't actually read the article...
Honestly, I can't help but marvel at it... 🙏

Unfortunately, I get the feeling that communication on this forum tends to function in much the same way most of the time... 🤷

Yes, they sold it, allegedly for just one ruble, and now Renault is claiming it was a responsible move to protect the workers—though, more likely, they are just eyeing a way back into the market given the possibility of buying it back later...

wiredseal7 said:We saw how easily our leaders and European politicians jumped to vote for sanctions—all in that desperate, heated rush to play wrecking ball to the Russian economy.
Isn't that an unpredictable risk too? And I don't just mean when it comes to Russia.

Whether they return the planes right now or not doesn't really matter—nobody’s going to touch leasing aircraft to Russia again. They're just sitting ducks for retaliation if relations sour further—easy target for some payback. If they actually decide to hand them back, I guess that means the risk level has finally stabilized. At least, that's how I see it.

Look, you're missing the point—you don't actually need a third of your balance just to cover account maintenance and those little extra fees. Even in places like Switzerland, where they’ve started charging negative interest just for the privilege of holding your cash, we're talking less than 1% a year. It's pretty much the same story with most other financial services or investment products out there.

Sanctions—at least in this specific instance—aren't some unforeseen variable. They are the logical, predictable consequence of launching an armed conflict of this magnitude in 21st-century Europe. If anyone truly believed this would pass without a calculated response, they were deeply mistaken. To me, the only thing that justifies Putin and remains illogical in this entire sequence is that lukewarm reaction we saw during the occupation of Crimea.

Whether they return those planes immediately or not, it will be difficult to find anyone willing to lease them to Russia in the future. They are easy prey for retaliation if relations sour again; a convenient tool for vengeance. If they do start leasing them again, then the risk has presumably returned to baseline levels. At least, that is my assessment.

Of course, aircraft leasing will eventually resume; it is merely a matter of timing. Be it in a year, a decade, or a century. It will happen. Initially, insurance premiums will be prohibitively high, making the math unappealing, but those costs will gradually decline as special guarantees are issued or perhaps through certain account deposits. Once the leasing business restarts and regular payments begin to flow, everything will normalize. It will happen under terms that satisfy all parties involved. Time is the only variable.

How can you think that? One-third of the funds isn't enough to cover maintenance and similar overhead. Granted, Swiss bankers are now charging negative interest rates to hold money in accounts, but even that sits below 1% annually. That applies to most financial services and investment products they offer as well.

Bankers always have their reasons for their actions. From my experience, those reasons are inextricably linked to their own interests. They aren't there to help others; helping people is simply a byproduct of the fact that they prioritize themselves first.

It’s funny how sanctions can feel like a windfall for some, while for everyone else, they just feel like a total disaster...

I was looking at the earnings reports last night for the four biggest oil giants here in the States, and it’s honestly staggering. On average, their profits have tripled this year, all thanks to the ongoing crisis in Ukraine. 😲

And let’s be real, they haven't even touched much Russian oil. Aside from a tiny amount used as an additive, they have absolutely zero justification for sending gas prices through the roof. It’s even worse for the Arab producers. You’d think they’d be thrilled to swallow up the market share left behind by Russia, but despite that, oil isn't sitting around at $70 a barrel—it's hitting $107.

So when I pulled up to the gas station this morning and saw those updated prices on the sign, I couldn't help but wonder who is actually pulling the strings here. Americans and the Arabs could easily produce more oil than we actually need, but instead, they claim competition is too fierce, pushing the Iranians (and even that Chermakov tanker) right into the crosshairs of sanctions. Meanwhile, you or some regular guy like John Doe is stuck buying fuel drop by drop, because at this rate, running a dairy farm or a brewery would probably be cheaper than filling up a tank.

In short, it's pure wartime profiteering at its finest...

brightheron64 said:It’s funny how sanctions can feel like a windfall for some, while for everyone else, they just feel like a total disaster...

I was looking at the earnings reports last night for the four biggest oil giants here in the States, and it’s honestly staggering. On average, their profits have tripled this year, all thanks to the ongoing crisis in Ukraine. 😲

And let’s be real, they haven't even touched much Russian oil. Aside from a tiny amount used as an additive, they have absolutely zero justification for sending gas prices through the roof. It’s even worse for the Arab producers. You’d think they’d be thrilled to swallow up the market share left behind by Russia, but despite that, oil isn't sitting around at $70 a barrel—it's hitting $107.

So when I pulled up to the gas station this morning and saw those updated prices on the sign, I couldn't help but wonder who is actually pulling the strings here. Americans and the Arabs could easily produce more oil than we actually need, but instead, they claim competition is too fierce, pushing the Iranians (and even that Chermakov tanker) right into the crosshairs of sanctions. Meanwhile, you or some regular guy like John Doe is stuck buying fuel drop by drop, because at this rate, running a dairy farm or a brewery would probably be cheaper than filling up a tank.

In short, it's pure wartime profiteering at its finest...

Good morning. 😁
Best regards,

brightheron64 said:It’s funny how sanctions can feel like a windfall for some, while for everyone else, they just feel like a total disaster...

I was looking at the earnings reports last night for the four biggest oil giants here in the States, and it’s honestly staggering. On average, their profits have tripled this year, all thanks to the ongoing crisis in Ukraine. 😲

And let’s be real, they haven't even touched much Russian oil. Aside from a tiny amount used as an additive, they have absolutely zero justification for sending gas prices through the roof. It’s even worse for the Arab producers. You’d think they’d be thrilled to swallow up the market share left behind by Russia, but despite that, oil isn't sitting around at $70 a barrel—it's hitting $107.

So when I pulled up to the gas station this morning and saw those updated prices on the sign, I couldn't help but wonder who is actually pulling the strings here. Americans and the Arabs could easily produce more oil than we actually need, but instead, they claim competition is too fierce, pushing the Iranians (and even that Chermakov tanker) right into the crosshairs of sanctions. Meanwhile, you or some regular guy like John Doe is stuck buying fuel drop by drop, because at this rate, running a dairy farm or a brewery would probably be cheaper than filling up a tank.

In short, it's pure wartime profiteering at its finest...

Impossible. 😁

Which means the American defense industry will probably sink. 🍿
Not.

brightheron64 said:It’s funny how sanctions can feel like a windfall for some, while for everyone else, they just feel like a total disaster...

I was looking at the earnings reports last night for the four biggest oil giants here in the States, and it’s honestly staggering. On average, their profits have tripled this year, all thanks to the ongoing crisis in Ukraine. 😲

And let’s be real, they haven't even touched much Russian oil. Aside from a tiny amount used as an additive, they have absolutely zero justification for sending gas prices through the roof. It’s even worse for the Arab producers. You’d think they’d be thrilled to swallow up the market share left behind by Russia, but despite that, oil isn't sitting around at $70 a barrel—it's hitting $107.

So when I pulled up to the gas station this morning and saw those updated prices on the sign, I couldn't help but wonder who is actually pulling the strings here. Americans and the Arabs could easily produce more oil than we actually need, but instead, they claim competition is too fierce, pushing the Iranians (and even that Chermakov tanker) right into the crosshairs of sanctions. Meanwhile, you or some regular guy like John Doe is stuck buying fuel drop by drop, because at this rate, running a dairy farm or a brewery would probably be cheaper than filling up a tank.

In short, it's pure wartime profiteering at its finest...

The reality is that American corporations are raking it in, but the average person isn't seeing any of it. We're dealing with the highest inflation in forty years, energy costs have jumped by 30% (though, granted, it's still cheaper here than it is in the European Union), and rent in most major cities is absolutely skyrocketing.

Michael Ortiz68 said:The reality is that American corporations are raking it in, but the average person isn't seeing any of it. We're dealing with the highest inflation in forty years, energy costs have jumped by 30% (though, granted, it's still cheaper here than it is in the European Union), and rent in most major cities is absolutely skyrocketing.

It is honestly a bit naive to suggest that Russian aggression against Ukraine is the sole reason behind all this economic chaos.
Lp

It started with an embargo, and now we’re looking at full-blown sanctions against Russia..

Larry Wilson25 said:What’s the deal with our friends at AD Plastic? They’re tied directly to Renault and have production lines running right in Russia.
Exactly—and let's be real, there aren't even any sanctions on people actually buying vehicles over there. Plus, what are we going to do about the semiconductor shortage? Modern cars need chips, but everything is being diverted to the military, which is basically cannibalizing parts from washing machines and appliances just to keep up.
(And honestly, some European car manufacturers are doing the exact same thing regardless of the war).

AD Plastic is basically toast.
The sanctions are going to slowly grind everything down... it'll take more than just the weapons the West is sending over. You're going to see the real impact this fall.

A Moskvitch doesn't need semiconductors anyway. Just give them an old Ford engine, some coils, and basic circuit boards.

dustyowl29 said:It started with an embargo, and now we’re looking at full-blown sanctions against Russia..

Let’s be honest: most of these sanctions against Russia are nothing more than a convenient smokescreen used to fuel massive market speculation.
Best regards,

I’m watching the news here in the States, and everyone is tearing into Canada because they’re blocking those oil sanctions. They keep saying it's "destroying European Union unity."

Fine then, why don't they just slap sanctions on Russian gas too?

Oh wait... they can't do that, because it would absolutely wreck the German economy. But ruining Canada? That’s totally on the table.
And honestly, if Viktor Orbán plays along, he might even lose the next election once the Canadian economy tanks—killing two birds with one stone. Great plan!

If only Viktor Orbán were actually that stupid...

They also seem to forget that Viktor Orbán is basically running diesel back toward Ukraine in reverse—it's a necessity because of those massive shortages—or at least that's the deal being hashed out right now.

But sure, go ahead and call Ukraine's enemy ☕

Bryan Booth82 said:Good morning. 😁
Best regards,

Every single morning. But Tuesdays always feel just a little bit different... 😁

Stay well.

Bryan Booth82 said:It is honestly a bit naive to suggest that Russian aggression against Ukraine is the sole reason behind all this economic chaos.
Lp

And where exactly did I suggest that was the case?

I'm only weighing in because I constantly hear the narrative that "Americans" have been profiting from this. Sure, speculators might be, but the American people haven't seen a dime of profit (and while they might certainly want to, they definitely haven't yet).

Michael Ortiz68 said:And where exactly did I suggest that was the case?

I'm only weighing in because I constantly hear the narrative that "Americans" have been profiting from this. Sure, speculators might be, but the American people haven't seen a dime of profit (and while they might certainly want to, they definitely haven't yet).

I highly doubt anyone was even thinking about the American public here. Even if there was some indirect benefit, that's still up for debate.

Joshua Myers432 said:I highly doubt anyone was even thinking about the American public here. Even if there was some indirect benefit, that's still up for debate.

Fair enough. The comment I was addressing from brightheron64 wasn't specifically about the "Average Joes," but there are plenty of entries throughout this entire PDF suggesting Americans are somehow riding a wave of prosperity because they might benefit from this crisis—specifically through increased energy exports to Europe. In reality, the Average Joe hasn't been doing this poorly in quite some time.

Michael Ortiz68 said:And where exactly did I suggest that was the case?

I'm only weighing in because I constantly hear the narrative that "Americans" have been profiting from this. Sure, speculators might be, but the American people haven't seen a dime of profit (and while they might certainly want to, they definitely haven't yet).

When the economies of stable nations grow stronger, the citizens benefit... so even if we follow that logic, it would minimally apply to Russia as well.

The narrative you’re peddling... it’s such a naive conclusion, typically pushed by those who are far too fond of Russian propaganda. They love to suggest that the USA orchestrated this entire situation just so their elite could line their pockets.🤦
It’s always the same pattern: the West is to blame for Russian aggression, the West is to blame because Russia is losing the war, the West is to blame for everything... I suppose the West is even to blame for how I personally profit? It’s sheer madness. This kind of propaganda truly knows no bounds.

lp

Bryan Booth82 said:When the economies of stable nations grow stronger, the citizens benefit... so even if we follow that logic, it would minimally apply to Russia as well.

The narrative you’re peddling... it’s such a naive conclusion, typically pushed by those who are far too fond of Russian propaganda. They love to suggest that the USA orchestrated this entire situation just so their elite could line their pockets.🤦
It’s always the same pattern: the West is to blame for Russian aggression, the West is to blame because Russia is losing the war, the West is to blame for everything... I suppose the West is even to blame for how I personally profit? It’s sheer madness. This kind of propaganda truly knows no bounds.

lp

It's like they say: a man with nothing is always envious of the healthy man walking right past him.