Sanctions on Russia

Amanda Flores88 said:Nothing's changing before the year wraps up.

2023 is basically being labeled as a transition year. In plain English? That means we’re looking at about six more months of absolutely nothing happening—then maybe things start moving.

With Viktor Orbán, it’s kind of wild—everyone's out there publicly dragging him, but behind closed doors? Most leaders are actually low-key relieved he's around. He basically plays the bad guy so they don't have to. He steps up, says the stuff nobody else dares to say, and lets them keep playing their "perfectly polite" roles. It's pretty much a classic setup, right?

Not really...
The embargo on Russian oil arriving by sea kicks in immediately.
Per the agreement, Germany and Poland are cutting off land imports by the end of the year. That leaves Canada, which is okay with importing through the US, but that requires refinery adjustments. The administration claims everything could be sorted out in 40 to 60 days.

Edit: It's definitely not "nothing," considering Russia made comments about the European Union being economically unviable, and the Netherlands already had its gas supply throttled.

Those are straight up Biden’s own words right there—but listening to everyone else chime in now, it feels like there's a bit of everything going on. Looks like they shook hands on a festival-style deal where "there's something for everyone."

rowdytiger13 said:Not really...
The embargo on Russian oil arriving by sea kicks in immediately.
Per the agreement, Germany and Poland are cutting off land imports by the end of the year. That leaves Canada, which is okay with importing through the US, but that requires refinery adjustments. The administration claims everything could be sorted out in 40 to 60 days.

Edit: It's definitely not "nothing," considering Russia made comments about the European Union being economically unviable, and the Netherlands already had its gas supply throttled.

What exactly does Andrej Plenković think can be fixed in just 40 to 60 days?? Refinery upgrades cost an absolute fortune—we're talking massive capital expenditures—and that process usually takes years, not a couple of months.
I mean, look at how the recovery efforts after the earthquake haven't even properly started yet, yet he thinks he can pull this off in sixty days... That Andrej Plenković is a "specialist" of a kind you rarely encounter.🤦

George Robinson43 said:Their storage levels were simply whatever the bosses in Moscow dictated they should be.
When it comes to Germany, it's all about the SPD. It's all about those little pushovers. 😉

The Americans couldn't care less. In just a few months, they'll be done with Russia forever. Meanwhile, Scholz and the rest of those Russian puppets have to pray to God every single day that Ukraine just gives up.

Compared to other EU nations, the Netherlands hasn't relied on Russian gas nearly as much, so this looks more like a strategic PR move on their part.

casualtiger2 said:European Gas Storage

Latest data on gas storage levels (May 29th)

EU 46.19 % (509 TWh)

Average consumption from Dec '21 to Feb '22 was roughly 6 TWh.

So, based on current reserves—assuming usage stays flat—Europe could potentially scrape by for more than 80 winter days.

Since we're filling up at a rate of about 0.4-0.5%, we can probably expect to hit ~80% capacity by mid-August '22. That should be enough to cover the fall/winter season even without relying on LNG or other sources—plus, hopefully, by next autumn '23, we'll have established new supply lines or found ways to cut back and pivot toward renewables.
By August or September '22, the EU might finally start detaching itself from Russian gas.

Germany’s got a bit of a situation here—Russia’s latest sanctions effectively blocked their own subsidiary in Germany. Astora is sitting at just 7% capacity, which means their main storage facility is basically bone dry. There's even a chance Germany might seize it, given their laws regarding minimum storage requirements.

Current storage levels for major consuming nations:

Poland 94.44 %

United Kingdom 92.21 %

Portugal 92.49 %

Spain 66.16 %

Czech Republic 61.68 %

Denmark 54.31 %

France 51.24 %

Italy 49.4 %

Germany 48.43 %

Latvia 40.25 %

Slovakia 38.81 %

Netherlands 36.69 %

Belgium 35.57 %

Austria 32 %

And what about us? I wonder—what are our current inventory levels?

Amanda Flores88 said:Nothing's changing before the year wraps up.

2023 is basically being labeled as a transition year. In plain English? That means we’re looking at about six more months of absolutely nothing happening—then maybe things start moving.

With Viktor Orbán, it’s kind of wild—everyone's out there publicly dragging him, but behind closed doors? Most leaders are actually low-key relieved he's around. He basically plays the bad guy so they don't have to. He steps up, says the stuff nobody else dares to say, and lets them keep playing their "perfectly polite" roles. It's pretty much a classic setup, right?

Regarding the oil imports, two-thirds are hit by the embargo immediately. The plan is to ramp that up to 90% by the end of the year—which is just a buffer period for those countries heavily reliant on specific pipelines—leaving that final 10% to Canada and Slovakia. Those guys have to scramble to upgrade their refineries so they can process something other than Russian oil instead of being stuck with just one option.

Michael Ortiz68 said:Compared to other EU nations, the Netherlands hasn't relied on Russian gas nearly as much, so this looks more like a strategic PR move on their part.

They were actually getting maybe around 15% of their gas from Russia.

hollowdriver13 said:They were actually getting maybe around 15% of their gas from Russia.

True. I can't pretend this move carries nearly as much weight as it would if, say, Austria had pulled a stunt like this.

Paul Kern12 said:What exactly does Andrej Plenković think can be fixed in just 40 to 60 days?? Refinery upgrades cost an absolute fortune—we're talking massive capital expenditures—and that process usually takes years, not a couple of months.
I mean, look at how the recovery efforts after the earthquake haven't even properly started yet, yet he thinks he can pull this off in sixty days... That Andrej Plenković is a "specialist" of a kind you rarely encounter.🤦

It really just comes down to one single switch where you're choosing between one or two options—like deciding whether to go with ExxonMobil or maybe some energy from Qatar.

Samuel Baker3 said:It really just comes down to one single switch where you're choosing between one or two options—like deciding whether to go with ExxonMobil or maybe some energy from Qatar.

👍
That’s exactly it. I mean, even my car has a toggle switch, so I can swap between gasoline or diesel whenever I feel like it...

wiredseal7 said:There were whispers that this doesn't apply to the pipelines—probably just Orban's way of playing hardball.

For us, this summer is going to be a real riot. Since we're basically a major road-trip destination here in the States, current gas prices are already going to wreck us. I'm not sure if they're pulling the trigger now or at the end of the year, but even the mere threat of these measures sends pump prices climbing ahead of time.
Man, you have to wonder who's actually running this sad little Union...

it’s honestly unbelievable how much you have no clue what you're talking about... or maybe you're just writing down your own wishful thinking... or you're just intentionally muddying the waters for some reason...

This tourist season is actually likely going to be the best one yet. Even right now, the US is seeing tons of tourists and hotels—especially in places like Florida or California—are already packed to the brim. Nobody is actually worried about a shortage of tourists; if anything, people are sweating because there'll be too many visitors and not enough workers to handle them. Whether gas hits $5, $6, or $7 a gallon doesn't even matter when it comes to the peak season and getting people to show up.

Maybe go apply for a job in hospitality so you can witness firsthand that there "aren't any tourists," instead of posting absolute nonsense here.😁

Kudos to our politicians in the EU!

They’re more than happy to screw over their own people just to please their big overseas brother. It’s sad to watch what used to be the center of the world turn into nothing more than a tiny, insignificant appendage to a colonial master—one that doesn't care about them at all and will ditch them the second they aren't useful anymore...

BRAVO!!!

If these sanctions don't actually hit Russia where it hurts by May 1st, 2023, are certain folks on this forum going to commit seppuku? 🙂

Honestly, the only real lifeline for those poor Ukrainians will be a total collapse of the Chinese economy; that’s the only way lives are truly saved here. Everything else feels like a bit of a farce. Personally, I don't mind—I'll just stay cozy in my Armani sweatshirt—but I can't help but worry about the retirees out there... what's going to happen to them?

goldenpuma84 said:Kudos to our politicians in the EU!

They’re more than happy to screw over their own people just to please their big overseas brother. It’s sad to watch what used to be the center of the world turn into nothing more than a tiny, insignificant appendage to a colonial master—one that doesn't care about them at all and will ditch them the second they aren't useful anymore...

BRAVO!!!

Oh, really? 😁 Like, how exactly is that supposed to happen? Seriously... what are you guys even talking about? (at least some of you). Has anyone here actually set foot in Europe lately? Seen what life is actually like over there? The standard of living and all that?

You have to be completely out of touch with reality to honestly believe that "poverty" is going to take over Europe. That is pure nonsense... If things were actually that bad, the rest of the world would be in the gutter too, and in a place like Russia, people would be starving and eating each other (not like it's their first time, right?)

Whatever, just a bunch of total garbage being repeated over and over again...

I've been listening to people drone on about how Europe is falling apart and crumbling for over twenty years now... Here's one thing that isn't ☕

Michael Ortiz68 said:I've been listening to people drone on about how Europe is falling apart and crumbling for over twenty years now... Here's one thing that isn't ☕

Let’s be real for a second—we haven't seen this specific combination of factors hit all at once in the last thirty years. If you ask me, this might actually be a good thing; maybe it's finally the wake-up call we need to shake ourselves out of this comfortable lethargy we've been stuck in.

The real issue, though, is that Russian artillery is going to keep tearing through UA, even if they decide to block the gas pipelines tomorrow. ☕

Brenda Murphy3 said:Oh, really? 😁 Like, how exactly is that supposed to happen? Seriously... what are you guys even talking about? (at least some of you). Has anyone here actually set foot in Europe lately? Seen what life is actually like over there? The standard of living and all that?

You have to be completely out of touch with reality to honestly believe that "poverty" is going to take over Europe. That is pure nonsense... If things were actually that bad, the rest of the world would be in the gutter too, and in a place like Russia, people would be starving and eating each other (not like it's their first time, right?)

Whatever, just a bunch of total garbage being repeated over and over again...

Hehe.
The bots have officially graduated from "7 days to the Atlantic" to "7 days until starvation in Europe."

Brenda Murphy3 said:Oh, really? 😁 Like, how exactly is that supposed to happen? Seriously... what are you guys even talking about? (at least some of you). Has anyone here actually set foot in Europe lately? Seen what life is actually like over there? The standard of living and all that?

You have to be completely out of touch with reality to honestly believe that "poverty" is going to take over Europe. That is pure nonsense... If things were actually that bad, the rest of the world would be in the gutter too, and in a place like Russia, people would be starving and eating each other (not like it's their first time, right?)

Whatever, just a bunch of total garbage being repeated over and over again...

We're only just now (TWO YEARS AFTER THE MEDIA-INDUCED MADNESS STARTED) dealing with the economic fallout of the global lockdown—caused by broken supply chains and printing money to hand out to citizens that wasn't earned and didn't reflect real economic activity while the economy was actually tanking. Then they created a supply shortage against an artificially maintained level of demand, and presto—inflation.

What European politicians are doing now at the expense of their voters, just to benefit the bosses in Washington (woof-woof, Plenković), and the excitement from a large chunk of this forum, is going to come due in a few months.

It's just how it works. Feel free to mock me if you want...

"Quote:"

goldenpuma84 said:We're only just now (TWO YEARS AFTER THE MEDIA-INDUCED MADNESS STARTED) dealing with the economic fallout of the global lockdown—caused by broken supply chains and printing money to hand out to citizens that wasn't earned and didn't reflect real economic activity while the economy was actually tanking. Then they created a supply shortage against an artificially maintained level of demand, and presto—inflation.

What European politicians are doing now at the expense of their voters, just to benefit the bosses in Washington (woof-woof, Plenković), and the excitement from a large chunk of this forum, is going to come due in a few months.

It's just how it works. Feel free to mock me if you want...

Well, that’s exactly what politicians say. Maybe not in American, though.
The standard of living in Europe is headed downhill, but people have been bracing for this hit since the push for green energy started. It’s not like we haven't seen it coming.
A drop in the standard of living doesn't necessarily mean people will be starving; compared to most of the rest of the world, things will likely still look pretty damn good.

goldenpuma84 said:We're only just now (TWO YEARS AFTER THE MEDIA-INDUCED MADNESS STARTED) dealing with the economic fallout of the global lockdown—caused by broken supply chains and printing money to hand out to citizens that wasn't earned and didn't reflect real economic activity while the economy was actually tanking. Then they created a supply shortage against an artificially maintained level of demand, and presto—inflation.

What European politicians are doing now at the expense of their voters, just to benefit the bosses in Washington (woof-woof, Plenković), and the excitement from a large chunk of this forum, is going to come due in a few months.

It's just how it works. Feel free to mock me if you want...

I’m laughing because you’re talking absolute nonsense.

Everything you wrote above is complete gibberish with zero basis in reality. Honestly, it sounds like I'm listening to some propaganda broadcast on Russian state TV, where they talk a big game but the real shady characters are the ones calling the shots behind the scenes.

If I were you, I wouldn't lose any sleep over Europe, especially the Western part... instead, maybe worry about the mess over in Russia. That place has always been a circus designed to funnel money to a tiny circle of elites, and it's only going to get worse. Europe will be just fine... don't sweat it. Maybe in a year or two people will be buying a Volkswagen instead of an Audi, but we can survive a dip in the standard of living like that.

Even looking at Rhode Island, we've been hearing for years that it's failing, that it's going broke, blah blah blah... but in reality, people are snapping up apartments for $3,000 a month, you can't even order a car fast enough to meet the demand, and median wages have climbed at least 20% over the last five years... and if you factor in population growth, probably more. Doesn't sound like "collapse" to me 😁. Sure, things could be way, way better, but this constant doom-and-gloom whining is wrong about 80% of the time and has nothing to do with what's actually happening on the ground...