Sanctions on Russia

urbanotter said:The topic isn't just about China and its economy, but rather how interconnected the world is—how the growth of individual economies is tied directly to sanctions against Russia.
The European Union is China's largest trading partner, yet the EU is also feeling the sting from a lack of various essential products coming out of China.
Furthermore, China has a massive reserve of growth potential within its huge population; if you raise wages by even a small percentage, that growth keeps moving forward.

If a projected growth rate of 2.7% for 2022 and 2.3% for 2023 (on an EU level) constitutes a "precipitous drop in standards" to you, then fine, I guess things are crashing.

That’s true nominally, but when you subtract inflation—which is rising faster because of the shortage of Russian oil and other raw materials, hitting double digits—the picture changes.
Some people just don't seem to grasp that a modern economy is fundamentally built on energy usage, and sanctions have significantly hampered availability while driving energy costs through the roof.
You can't avoid incorporating those costs into the price of goods and eventually passing them onto the consumer.
I don't want to turn this into an economics lecture, but if Western nations end up paying much more for energy than Eastern nations do,
there's simply no way they can maintain their current level of competitiveness. Meanwhile, the easy access to cheaper Russian energy and resources will only serve to boost the competitive edge of Eastern economies.

That has more to do with the overall cultural achievements of a society rather than just not having enough money for gas.

I can agree with that.
The Danes use bicycles quite a bit, yet they certainly have the money to buy fuel.
Unfortunately, we aren't Danes, and what might be a choice there could easily become the daily reality for many of our citizens—a sight we'll likely see on our own streets soon enough.
But anyway, moving on...
let's go watch Milić; he's old school, but always interesting, even his reruns.

🤦🙂

...Man, tell me you don't understand how the economy actually works without telling me..

George Robinson43 said:That website is absolutely terrible. 🙏

Cost of Living.
One slice of bread and a pound of beef.

I highly recommend this one instead:
https://www.globalproductprices.com/

Data from March 2022:
A pound of sugar:
Russia $1.56, USA $0.87
A gallon of milk:
Russia $1.27, USA $1.07
A pound of onions:
Russia $1.18, USA $0.67
Coca-Cola 0.5L:
Russia $1.11, USA $0.89
Heinekken 0.5L:
Russia $2.40, USA $0.97
iPhone 13:
Russia $1282, USA $1064

Just look at the price of Coca-Cola for example.
https://www.walmart.com/ip/coca-cola-classic-5-liter-bottle/ $2.25

We really need to see the June prices... March was a lifetime ago.

urbanotter said:Our birth rate is actually thriving right now—you really can't ignore how many kids are around lately,
and even with about 10% of the population emigrating, the overall growth remains steady.

I'm just not entirely sure if there's a direct link between all of this and the sanctions.

And how many of them actually moved to Russia? 😁

urbanotter said:That’s just your opinion, and it speaks volumes about your crystal ball.
You're entitled to it, even if it's wrong, and the future will soon prove that point.

As for us here in America, Russia has already overtaken us, and I am certain they will pull even further ahead.
Looking at GDP per capita, we find ourselves right alongside them on the charts,
with the reality that the purchasing power of an average Russian citizen is actually higher than that of an American citizen due to lower costs of living.
The sanctions, which have caused massive spikes in food and energy prices, will only serve to widen that gap.

China is currently the world's second-largest economy and is growing at a faster rate than any Western nation, so all serious analysts and economists expect them to overtake the US within two or three years.

😁

Why are you being so stubbornly ignorant... or are you just straight-up lying because you can't face reality?

The US GDP per capita is 30% higher than Russia's, and the purchasing power parity is also higher and trending even further away from them.

And you want to talk about "opinions" and "crystal balls"? It would be hilarious if it wasn't so pathetic.

The US has a significantly higher standard of living than Russia—a country with arguably the largest natural resources on the planet—and you think this is normal? You're actually out here defending this economic and mental nonsense? And if you were even going to try, you'd do it rationally, but no, you just dump a pile of lies, half-truths, and blatant misinformation everywhere.

It's ridiculous... and of course, you're saying this from the comfort of a prosperous nation in the EU, rather than from some total mental wasteland...

God, what kind of mental gymnastics drives you and people like you to act like this?

Jack Kelly5 said:Some guy claiming to be an economics expert just posted this:

I honestly don't know whether I should laugh or just start crying at that one.

The guy clearly doesn't even grasp the fundamental difference between nominal GDP and PPP, yet somehow he still finds the confidence to keep talking as if he knows what he's doing.

George Robinson43 said:That website is absolutely terrible. 🙏

Cost of Living.
One slice of bread and a pound of beef.

I highly recommend this one instead:
https://www.globalproductprices.com/

Data from March 2022:
A pound of sugar:
Russia $1.56, USA $0.87
A gallon of milk:
Russia $1.27, USA $1.07
A pound of onions:
Russia $1.18, USA $0.67
Coca-Cola 0.5L:
Russia $1.11, USA $0.89
Heinekken 0.5L:
Russia $2.40, USA $0.97
iPhone 13:
Russia $1282, USA $1064

Just look at the price of Coca-Cola for example.
https://www.walmart.com/ip/coca-cola-classic-5-liter-bottle/ $2.25

Most prices are from March. Exchange rate was roughly $1=62 rubles. This link is better than the gambler's, but still wouldn't recommend it because:
1. I have no clue what the actual dollar-to-ruble rate is in Russian banks right now.
2. No idea if prices changed given the inflation over there.
3. The Dollar strengthened against the Euro and the local currency, so you'll get wrong numbers if you use today's exchange rate—it's actually higher, to be more precise.
4. Same goes for the ruble; maybe you get more rubles per $1 now.

rowdyraven112 said:Most prices are from March. Exchange rate was roughly $1=62 rubles. This link is better than the gambler's, but still wouldn't recommend it because:
1. I have no clue what the actual dollar-to-ruble rate is in Russian banks right now.
2. No idea if prices changed given the inflation over there.
3. The Dollar strengthened against the Euro and the local currency, so you'll get wrong numbers if you use today's exchange rate—it's actually higher, to be more precise.
4. Same goes for the ruble; maybe you get more rubles per $1 now.

I guess we just can't make any real sense of the numbers here. The ruble isn't really a free-floating currency anymore, you know? It doesn't matter what the official exchange rate says on paper if you can't actually trade at that rate in the real world.

Melissa Rivera5 said:I guess we just can't make any real sense of the numbers here. The ruble isn't really a free-floating currency anymore, you know? It doesn't matter what the official exchange rate says on paper if you can't actually trade at that rate in the real world.

Does anyone have any intel on what the Dollar is actually trading for on the black market—say, over in Moscow?
Best regards,

Bryan Booth82 said:Does anyone have any intel on what the Dollar is actually trading for on the black market—say, over in Moscow?
Best regards,

I've seen a few articles mentioning this, and honestly, the rate is usually more than double what the official numbers say.

To be more specific, I've read about rates hitting somewhere between 130 and 150 rubles per Dollar. It’s not exactly a shocker... but those aren't exactly breaking news updates, so take them with a grain of salt. I'm pretty sure if you do a little bit of Google searching, you can dig up something more current.

Just check Google
since you can find plenty of info on those black market rubles being swapped for Dollars.

A few years back, anmoluna was posting about those insane exchange rate gaps over in Venezuela. It was wild—like, the official rate was 6 bolivars to the Dollar, but then you’d look at the black market and it was 900 bolivars to the Dollar. Obviously, your average Joe isn't exactly getting his hands on USD at that "official" rate. Not happening.

Honestly, just say "Google" is your shorthand for "I have no clue."
I don't get why you even bother highlighting that if you actually don't know the answer... just skip it.
Best,

dustyowl29 said:Just check Google
since you can find plenty of info on those black market rubles being swapped for Dollars.

Yeah... sure thing... information always finds a way to leak out—I mean, it’s not like Russia shut down the internet entirely, even though they probably would if they could.

You clearly have a decent handle on how this black market currency stuff works. What's obvious—and you don't even need me to confirm it—is that the official exchange rate is a total joke.

Bryan Booth82 said:Honestly, just say "Google" is your shorthand for "I have no clue."
I don't get why you even bother highlighting that if you actually don't know the answer... just skip it.
Best,

😵

God, what an absolute load of nonsense.

And what exactly counts as "valid proof" to you? You got some bright idea? 😁

Look, I know for a fact that the exchange rate is way, way higher than the official one.

So, hey, just let me know what kind of specific proof you need to be convinced—and I'll go hunt it down for you. 😁

"Google" is code for "I don't know"? Are you kidding me? Seriously, what a joke... even for these pro-Russia threads. I check the USD exchange rate on Google... you get it? 😁

Man... this whole argument is just laughable...

So, what’s the going rate for the Ruble on the black market then?

dustyowl29 said:So, what’s the going rate for the Ruble on the black market then?

That is exactly what I want to know too.😉
What kind of massive gap are we looking at compared to the official exchange rate? Is it double? Triple?
Is there even a comparison left once you factor in the chaos?
Best regards,

dustyowl29 said:So, what’s the going rate for the Ruble on the black market then?

Look, I'm telling you—from the articles I skimmed earlier—it’s somewhere between 120 and 150 Rubles to the Dollar.

(There's actually a guy on this forum who lives in Moscow, if I remember correctly—definitely in Russia—so just hit him up. He'll probably know the real deal... assuming he hasn't moved out of Russia yet).

Brenda Murphy3 said:Look, I'm telling you—from the articles I skimmed earlier—it’s somewhere between 120 and 150 Rubles to the Dollar.

(There's actually a guy on this forum who lives in Moscow, if I remember correctly—definitely in Russia—so just hit him up. He'll probably know the real deal... assuming he hasn't moved out of Russia yet).

So, let me get this straight: we’re looking at a situation where the actual, true value of the Dollar is roughly three times higher than whatever official exchange rate they’re feeding us? Are we really supposed to just swallow that? It’s absolutely absurd! If you actually look at the real math behind the scenes, the discrepancy is staggering. How can anyone pretend that the official numbers reflect reality when the gap is that massive? It's nothing short of a joke. 🤔
Lp

Bryan Booth82 said:So, let me get this straight: we’re looking at a situation where the actual, true value of the Dollar is roughly three times higher than whatever official exchange rate they’re feeding us? Are we really supposed to just swallow that? It’s absolutely absurd! If you actually look at the real math behind the scenes, the discrepancy is staggering. How can anyone pretend that the official numbers reflect reality when the gap is that massive? It's nothing short of a joke. 🤔
Lp

Pretty much.

Look, if you check the Ruble's value against the EBC or some other non-Russian institution—somewhere where you can actually swap Rubles for dollars without hitting a brick wall like they do in Russia—you'll see it. And honestly, you have to factor in that the black market always charges a massive premium. Once you account for that, you end up right around the numbers being discussed (like 120 to 150 per dollar).

Brenda Murphy3 said:Pretty much.

Look, if you check the Ruble's value against the EBC or some other non-Russian institution—somewhere where you can actually swap Rubles for dollars without hitting a brick wall like they do in Russia—you'll see it. And honestly, you have to factor in that the black market always charges a massive premium. Once you account for that, you end up right around the numbers being discussed (like 120 to 150 per dollar).

Fine, but from what I'm reading, they're saying the ruble would completely implode if they ever lifted capital controls and allowed free trading, simply because nobody actually wants to hold rubles in the first place...
On top of that, there are reports that Belarus is effectively bankrupt; their currency shot up from 4500 to 9000 against the dollar this week alone. It makes me wonder: will the Russians have to rush in to "put out the fire," or will they just end up getting burned themselves?
Best regards,