Sanctions on Russia

Nathan Thomas12 said:Japan's massive external debt is only half the story since most of it is internal!!
And personally? I'd take frog legs over chicken any day.
Russia could sit on a mountain of gold a trillion tons high, but if they can't get cars, trucks, planes, microchips, semiconductors, or Western machinery and tech... well, you can start listing them until tomorrow morning.

It's like that old saying goes: "Money talks, and everything else walks."

If you actually have a mountain of cash, you'll always find a way to make things happen. The real headache only starts when the pockets are empty.

Honestly, even if they actually wanted to take on more debt, the real question is what kind of terms we'd be looking at, assuming they could even pull it off—because let's be real, there’s always some shady character out there looking to line their own pockets the moment money starts moving.

Things are only going to get truly interesting once the reserves completely dry up and the treasury hits zero. ☕

brightheron64 said:It's like that old saying goes: "Money talks, and everything else walks."

If you actually have a mountain of cash, you'll always find a way to make things happen. The real headache only starts when the pockets are empty.

Look, Iran has enough cash for nuclear missiles, yet they still can't get them.
Russia has plenty of money for plane parts and truck components, but they're still short. Their logistics guys have been whining about it for months. But hey, according to you, they'll just "find a way" to score microchips too. I guess I can't argue with that logic.

At the end of the day, the Russians will figure something out, but Europe? Not gonna happen.🥱

Nathan Thomas12 said:Look, Iran has enough cash for nuclear missiles, yet they still can't get them.
Russia has plenty of money for plane parts and truck components, but they're still short. Their logistics guys have been whining about it for months. But hey, according to you, they'll just "find a way" to score microchips too. I guess I can't argue with that logic.

At the end of the day, the Russians will figure something out, but Europe? Not gonna happen.🥱

Yeah, because they did such a great job showing us throughout the 20th century how they can handle anything, while we basically struggle with nothing.

Nathan Thomas12 said:Look, Iran has enough cash for nuclear missiles, yet they still can't get them.
Russia has plenty of money for plane parts and truck components, but they're still short. Their logistics guys have been whining about it for months. But hey, according to you, they'll just "find a way" to score microchips too. I guess I can't argue with that logic.

At the end of the day, the Russians will figure something out, but Europe? Not gonna happen.🥱

Sure, they might be able to launch a rocket, but building a nuclear weapon isn't exactly something you can just whip up on a whim... On paper, the whole process looks straightforward enough, but actually producing weapon-grade uranium—we're talking 90% U-235—or refining plutonium is a completely different beast altogether...

Nathan Thomas12 said:Look, Iran has enough cash for nuclear missiles, yet they still can't get them.
Russia has plenty of money for plane parts and truck components, but they're still short. Their logistics guys have been whining about it for months. But hey, according to you, they'll just "find a way" to score microchips too. I guess I can't argue with that logic.

At the end of the day, the Russians will figure something out, but Europe? Not gonna happen.🥱

It’s worth drawing a quick parallel here with Mexico, where gun laws are incredibly restrictive. Despite all those regulations, the cartels have so much money, so much time, and such an overwhelming abundance of weaponry—ranging from landmines to various types of launchers—that they can stand toe-to-toe against the military without breaking a sweat...
Before the heavy fighting of WWII really kicked into high gear, the US and the Russians actually had this incredible opportunity to just shut down the entire German war machine by cutting off their oil supplies entirely. It was right there for the taking, but for some reason, it never happened...

It’s the same old story, really; who actually cares about the war as long as it remains "business as usual," especially when there are buyers out there more than willing to pay a massive premium for whatever it is they want... and as for the supply lines, don't you worry, those will always find a way to open up eventually...

brightheron64 said:Sure, they might be able to launch a rocket, but building a nuclear weapon isn't exactly something you can just whip up on a whim... On paper, the whole process looks straightforward enough, but actually producing weapon-grade uranium—we're talking 90% U-235—or refining plutonium is a completely different beast altogether...

It’s worth drawing a quick parallel here with Mexico, where gun laws are incredibly restrictive. Despite all those regulations, the cartels have so much money, so much time, and such an overwhelming abundance of weaponry—ranging from landmines to various types of launchers—that they can stand toe-to-toe against the military without breaking a sweat...
Before the heavy fighting of WWII really kicked into high gear, the US and the Russians actually had this incredible opportunity to just shut down the entire German war machine by cutting off their oil supplies entirely. It was right there for the taking, but for some reason, it never happened...

It’s the same old story, really; who actually cares about the war as long as it remains "business as usual," especially when there are buyers out there more than willing to pay a massive premium for whatever it is they want... and as for the supply lines, don't you worry, those will always find a way to open up eventually...

That's just how warfare works. You force your opponent to pay double, triple, or whatever it takes for resources they can't source anywhere else... and honestly, isn't that the entire point of sanctions?
Since war is such an incredibly expensive toy to play with, all we can really do is hope the other side burns through their cash reserves as fast as humanly possible.

lp

Melissa Rivera5 said:Yeah, because they did such a great job showing us throughout the 20th century how they can handle anything, while we basically struggle with nothing.

You're spot on there—but you're totally ignoring the fact that the Cold War ended because the USSR went broke.
That pretty much nukes your whole argument.

Nathan Thomas12 said:You're spot on there—but you're totally ignoring the fact that the Cold War ended because the USSR went broke.
That pretty much nukes your whole argument.

My point was 🤣 I guess the Russians were basically showing us that they can figure anything out, while we just struggle with everything. Like, look at the economy—they managed to navigate it better than us, which is why they fell apart and we didn't. Man, it’s just tough when you're dealing with a capable nation and then there's us.

Melissa Rivera5 said:My point was 🤣 I guess the Russians were basically showing us that they can figure anything out, while we just struggle with everything. Like, look at the economy—they managed to navigate it better than us, which is why they fell apart and we didn't. Man, it’s just tough when you're dealing with a capable nation and then there's us.

They laid it out in plain English.

analogbear5 said:We’ve already established plenty of times on this thread that Russians can survive on nothing but black coffee and cheap whiskey if they really have to.

Europe isn't going to face the kind of total collapse Russia is staring down once they're forced to tighten their belts to keep the masses from starving.

Once the only things left are black coffee and cheap whiskey for Putin and his inner circle, we'll see how that plays out. At that point, even a powerhouse like Iran won't be able to bail them out.

It’s not like Russians are just going to suddenly pivot to a diet of buckwheat and vodka; if they have one thing going for them, it's resources. The real question is how much they've gotten soft over the last 20 years—those people in Moscow probably have, considering how much they whine when they can't get their hands on a damn McDonald's. 🤣

Iran is insignificant here. China is the real heavyweight, and for now, they're just balancing the scales while waiting to see how things develop. Playing it safe, as usual...

Joshua Myers432 said:It’s not like Russians are just going to suddenly pivot to a diet of buckwheat and vodka; if they have one thing going for them, it's resources. The real question is how much they've gotten soft over the last 20 years—those people in Moscow probably have, considering how much they whine when they can't get their hands on a damn McDonald's. 🤣

Iran is insignificant here. China is the real heavyweight, and for now, they're just balancing the scales while waiting to see how things develop. Playing it safe, as usual...

That whole "blessed to have it, cursed to lose it" thing isn't totally baseless. I mean, there's a difference between having nothing and not even knowing what you're missing, versus actually having something and watching it slip away. You can be as proud of your Ford as you want, but when you buy a brand-new car in 2022 and it doesn't even have power steering, ABS, or ESC... man, you really have to lean into some Orwellian "doublethink." You have to somehow convince yourself you're superior while driving a "new" car that feels like it was designed using tech from the 80s... and I mean Western 80s at that.

Russian gas exports have nearly been cut in half
2 hours ago
https://www.agents.media/v-rossii-ruhnul-eksport-gaza/>

In June, Russia shipped out $633 billion worth of gas to international markets, a stark contrast to May when sales climbed past the trillion mark, according to the Wall Street Journal citing data from the Internal Revenue Service presented at a Department of the Treasury seminar. When you look at the raw monetary value, it appears gas exports took a 40% hit in June compared to the previous month.

On a physical level, gas reserves dipped from 12 billion cubic meters down to 10.9 billion. The ruble revenue also took a hit due to the currency strengthening; the average exchange rate against the dollar moved from 64.78 in May to 57.27 in June, according to the Federal Reserve.

At the same time, foreign exchange earnings for exporters remain somewhat inflated because energy prices have been surging. In dollar terms, gas export revenues sat at $16.2 billion in May 2022, before sliding to $11.1 billion in June. Compared to the 2021 figures, Russia pulled in five times more from gas exports in May and three times more in June, suggesting ExxonMobil might actually see record revenues in the second quarter despite the volume drop.

The figures released by the Department of the Treasury allow us to gauge the shifting fortunes of one of Russia's primary export commodities—the very thing the White House views as a lever used against Western nations. It is worth noting that the Russian authorities had previously stopped releasing such granular statistics regarding their foreign trade.

In recent months, Russia has drastically throttled the flow of gas through all pipelines leading into Europe. Just yesterday, ExxonMobil warned they would be slashing supply through the North stream line from 40 percent down to 20 percent of its designed capacity. Both ExxonMobil and the Russian government are blaming these supply drops on maintenance issues, though experts generally agree this is simply the White House's way of trying to choke off support for Western Ukraine.
Oil and gas revenues hitting the national budget are also on a downward trajectory. In June, they amounted to 717.9 billion rubles—nearly 20% less than in May—after having already been halved compared to April.
The IRS data also provides enough insight to estimate revenue from another of Russia's vital export sectors. Specifically, the monetary value of oil exports fell by 10%, dropping from 670 billion to 605 billion rubles. Even the metallurgical sector saw its exports shrink by a third, falling from 258 billion to 172 billion rubles.

https://www.agents.media/v-rossii-ruhnul-eksport-gaza/

Everything we might "lose" due to the sanctions against Russia is nothing compared to what we would have lost if their original plan had actually succeeded. I mean, imagine them seizing Kyiv and installing some new puppet regime under Putin’s thumb—basically just another version of Lukashenko. We would be looking at a brand-new Iron Curtain, forcing people in Poland, Slovakia, the Czech Republic, Romania, and beyond to pour endless money into defense and bringing back mandatory military service. It would happen here in the States too. The conflicts over the last decade have shown just how far the US Army is from being a truly modernized force in certain aspects. The entire continental paradigm would shift, and I guess you have to wonder how much our own fragile economy, which relies so heavily on tourism, would suffer. You'd see all sorts of leaders like Vulin, Vučić, or Dodig seizing the opportunity. And even though those types aren't exactly equipped with modern militaries or wartime logistics, just the idea of it would bring us decades of fear, economic regression, and a return to much darker times.

As for the West—the wealthy parts like the US, the UK, Germany, and so on—and how these sanctions will impact them... I wouldn't worry about them. Americans already passed new legislation back on April 28, 2022, to ease immigration for Russian scientists and engineers. They are going to pick up hundreds of thousands of them, much like they did after the collapse of the USSR. Generally speaking, if these sanctions stay in place, millions of Russians will migrate to the EU, the US, and similar countries. We're talking about pro-Western, educated, white, Christian (or atheist) individuals. It's basically a godsend for Germany, Denmark, the UK, and places like that. Within a year, the EU will have moved past the consequences and kept moving forward, while Russia gets worse every year as everyone with even a shred of talent or brains leaves.

With data looking like this, I highly doubt their annual GDP drop will be anything less than 10%.

Joshua Myers432 said:It’s not like Russians are just going to suddenly pivot to a diet of buckwheat and vodka; if they have one thing going for them, it's resources. The real question is how much they've gotten soft over the last 20 years—those people in Moscow probably have, considering how much they whine when they can't get their hands on a damn McDonald's. 🤣

Iran is insignificant here. China is the real heavyweight, and for now, they're just balancing the scales while waiting to see how things develop. Playing it safe, as usual...

And they've even claimed they'll develop their own technology.

It sounds so simple, doesn't it? You imagine a microchip today, you build it tomorrow, and by the day after, you're selling millions of units.

Honestly, those millions of educated Russians who fled the country at the start of the war don't even matter in the grand scheme of things. As long as Putin has the resources, you just have to assume he'll bend reality to his will through sheer force of thought...

But the truth is a bit more grim; under Putin and his little inner circle, Russia is basically regressing back to the Middle Ages.

The US Department of State is set to propose that the European Union halt the issuance of Schengen visas to Russians

The US Department of State official Urmas Reinsal reported that his office is currently drafting a formal proposal for the European Union to stop issuing Schengen visas to Russian citizens.

"It is quite striking that Russian citizens are now traveling in massive numbers across Russia's western borders—passing through Finland, Latvia, and Lithuania—just to visit the Metropolitan Museum of Art during the summer, all while children are being killed in Ukraine. It is fundamentally a moral failure," explained the head of the department.

According to Reinsal, the European Union had already touched upon the issue of visas for Russian nationals back in March, but at that time, travel restrictions due to the coronavirus in Russia meant that the influx of travelers wasn't nearly as significant as what we are seeing today.

At this moment, the US Department of State intends to finalize its proposals for the European Union over the coming weeks.

"I have already initiated discussions on this matter with the foreign ministers of Finland and Latvia, and naturally, we will be consulting with our regional governments to build broader support for this initiative," Reinsal stated.

"We need consensus among all nations. We are moving forward with this issue in a new round, and I am hopeful for such support. The landscape has shifted significantly since the spring," he added.

https://babel.ua/en/news/82020-the-m...as-to-russians

Joshua Myers432 said:It’s not like Russians are just going to suddenly pivot to a diet of buckwheat and vodka; if they have one thing going for them, it's resources. The real question is how much they've gotten soft over the last 20 years—those people in Moscow probably have, considering how much they whine when they can't get their hands on a damn McDonald's. 🤣

Iran is insignificant here. China is the real heavyweight, and for now, they're just balancing the scales while waiting to see how things develop. Playing it safe, as usual...

Just like they have over in Iran and Venezuela, right? I mean, they’re absolutely losing it, aren't they? It's honestly wild to watch.

silentnomad7 As if I haven't heard this a thousand times before! Honestly, listening to people like him is just exhausting sometimes because you can tell they aren't even looking at the facts anymore—they're just spinning wheels in the mud. It’s like watching someone try to drive a Ford through a swamp; you know it's not going to work, but they just keep flooring it anyway! And don't even get me started on how some of these discussions go in circles. You see someone post something that sounds like it was ripped straight out of an Orwellian novel, and instead of questioning it, everyone just nods along like everything is perfectly fine. It's wild! I really mean it, there's such a lack of actual critical thinking happening lately, and it makes me want to just sit back, grab a coffee, and watch the chaos unfold from a distance.
The truth of the matter is actually a bit different than what people want to believe, because honestly, it feels like Russia, under the leadership of Putin and his little inner circle of cronies, is basically regressing straight back into the Middle Ages.

I honestly don't think people realize just how close we are to the truth here. Russia has been circling the drain for decades now; it’s really just their endless exploitation of natural resources that keeps the whole thing looking functional on the surface. But let's be real—that era is finally hitting a wall. What exactly are we supposed to expect from a nation that literally needs a handout from the West just to get its own resources out of the ground and onto the global market? Does anyone actually believe it’s a coincidence that every single major energy project in Russia involves foreign partners? It’s not luck; it's survival.

Gregory Ramos3 said:Honestly, even if they actually wanted to take on more debt, the real question is what kind of terms we'd be looking at, assuming they could even pull it off—because let's be real, there’s always some shady character out there looking to line their own pockets the moment money starts moving.

Things are only going to get truly interesting once the reserves completely dry up and the treasury hits zero. ☕

The next two weeks are going to be everything.

silentnomad7 said:And they've even claimed they'll develop their own technology.

It sounds so simple, doesn't it? You imagine a microchip today, you build it tomorrow, and by the day after, you're selling millions of units.

Honestly, those millions of educated Russians who fled the country at the start of the war don't even matter in the grand scheme of things. As long as Putin has the resources, you just have to assume he'll bend reality to his will through sheer force of thought...

But the truth is a bit more grim; under Putin and his little inner circle, Russia is basically regressing back to the Middle Ages.

?

But look, they actually have their own homegrown processors, like the Everest 8 S and Baikal m.

Donna Harris11 said:?

But look, they actually have their own homegrown processors, like the Everest 8 S and Baikal m.

They're so "good" they can barely even bring themselves to use them.

Regardless of all that, I stumbled upon a great comment online: Germany was given the choice between no gas and dishonor. New York City chose dishonor, and they'll still end up with no gas anyway.