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Sanctions on Russia

Started by Richard Wilson4 · · 👁 402 views · 9.5K replies

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Participants Richard Wilson4velvetcyclist95Jeremy Peterson4silentsurfer3rowdytiger13Carol Newman2William Anderson5Carl Cookfrozencobra50Paul Patel95Michael Davis10Gary WilsonGregory Ramos3slyfox43dustywolf13Tyler Jones6Larry Walker24Ashley Ramirez4Paul Clark80Adam Lee13northernangler8Nancy Ruiz5James Chavez91neonheron9 …
Anthony Hill5 Anthony Hill5 Regular
379 messages
joined May 2024
#6821 ·
George Robinson43 said:Per capita:
2013: $16,000
2021: $12,000

2022: $11,000? Or maybe $10,000?

Total GDP:
2013: $2.292 trillion
2021: $1.775 trillion

2022: $1.5 trillion? Or perhaps $1.4 trillion?

Oh, absolutely; over a mere nine years, their GDP has plummeted by some $600 to $700 billion—that is a staggering loss of one-third of its total value. Is this not the glaringly obvious proof that the Russian economy is actually strengthening? Perhaps you should consult our colleague Jack; I am certain he can provide a far more "enlightened" explanation for such a phenomenon.
Nancy Gomez26 Nancy Gomez26 Regular
787 messages
joined Jan 2018
#6822 ·
Anthony Hill5 said:Oh, absolutely; over a mere nine years, their GDP has plummeted by some $600 to $700 billion—that is a staggering loss of one-third of its total value. Is this not the glaringly obvious proof that the Russian economy is actually strengthening? Perhaps you should consult our colleague Jack; I am certain he can provide a far more "enlightened" explanation for such a phenomenon.

Most of this stems from those "weak" sanctions that practically invited Putin to launch this whole "special operation." If that was the reaction, one can only wonder what happens when the more substantial sanctions finally hit.
Anthony Hill5 Anthony Hill5 Regular
379 messages
joined May 2024
#6823 ·
Nancy Gomez26 said:Most of this stems from those "weak" sanctions that practically invited Putin to launch this whole "special operation." If that was the reaction, one can only wonder what happens when the more substantial sanctions finally hit.

You aren't reading closely enough. This is actually the direct result of the strengthening of Russian industry and agriculture. If anything, these sanctions might just serve to fortify them further.

steelfox98 said:Now we're just faking data? Your headline and stats don't match the actual article; you basically "edited" the link title to suit your narrative.
The article states the rate is 8%, not the 20% seen immediately after sanctions hit. It was lowered several times shortly after. Actually, if memory serves, it was 9% before the conflict, and now it's even lower.
They're struggling, clearly. 🤣

We saw this whole play in 2014. After the initial shock and the crash, the Russians adapted. They went from being net importers to arguably the biggest agricultural exporters, bolstered their industry, and stockpiled record amounts of gold and reserves.
analogbear5 analogbear5 Regular
571 messages
joined Aug 2019
#6824 ·
Just needs to clarify what a "reserve fund" actually is—basically just a rainy day fund for when the main budget runs dry.
George Robinson43 George Robinson43 Regular
472 messages
joined Oct 2017
#6825 ·
Anthony Hill5 said:Oh, absolutely; over a mere nine years, their GDP has plummeted by some $600 to $700 billion—that is a staggering loss of one-third of its total value. Is this not the glaringly obvious proof that the Russian economy is actually strengthening? Perhaps you should consult our colleague Jack; I am certain he can provide a far more "enlightened" explanation for such a phenomenon.

In the Russian mindset, less is somehow more; that's why the bots try to convince everyone that "less" is actually "more" just to prove how wrong you are.
Essentially, a 30% drop in GDP over nine years suggests their economy is outperforming anything in the West and proves sanctions are totally ineffective. These latest rounds of sanctions will likely slash their GDP by that much again within five to seven years, and nothing will be able to stop the inevitable collapse of the Russian economy.
quietviper0 quietviper0 Member
43 messages
joined May 2023
#6826 ·
Honestly, a lot of the confusion we run into—which is actually pretty easy to fix if you just take a second to think about it—stems from people mixing up the concepts of "nominal" versus "real" values...

https://data.worldbank.org/indicator...=RU&start=2010
George Robinson43 George Robinson43 Regular
472 messages
joined Oct 2017
#6827 ·
The distinction between nominal and real values lies entirely in inflation.
You're likely referring to GDP adjusted for purchasing power parity. In that case, Russia is going to struggle significantly under these sanctions due to an inevitable collapse in trade.
Nathan Evans78 Nathan Evans78 Regular
283 messages
joined Aug 2019
#6828 ·
https://www.washingtonpost.com/busin...stonia-europe/

I was just reading through this, and man, it’s wild to see the numbers coming out of Estonia lately—we're looking at an annual inflation rate of 22%.
rowdyraven112 rowdyraven112 Active Member
248 messages
joined Jun 2024
#6829 ·
Anthony Hill5 said:You aren't reading closely enough. This is actually the direct result of the strengthening of Russian industry and agriculture. If anything, these sanctions might just serve to fortify them further.

If we're talking about interpreting data, the only one here failing to read carefully and proactively pushing lies is someone like you.

Back in 2000, Russia's GDP was around $200 billion. By the time the global crisis hit in 2008, it had climbed to $1.6 trillion. That's an eightfold increase. Our own economy, after all the "I did my part in the looting" nonsense, only grew three times over ☕.

Then comes the $400 billion drop because of the global meltdown caused by greedy American banks and various executives who embezzled people's money—people who didn't even face criminal charges. Instead, the US mitigated its own GDP drop by printing money. We felt the economic fallout from those greedy US executives right here in America back then. Russia didn't fix its GDP by printing cash. That’s why the crash was so massive.

Before the occupation of Crimea, Russian GDP surged again to that $2.2 trillion figure you mentioned. Then another drop to $1.2 trillion due to sanctions, which were countered not by printing money, but by carving out new economic routes (luckily for folks down by the Mississippi River, there were smugglers who managed to distribute most of the crops to Russia anyway ☕).
Leading up to the COVID-19 crisis, Russian GDP grows more slowly—understandable since they were under sanctions—reaching $1.6 trillion. Then COVID-19 hits and another drop follows. I have no clue where their GDP stands right now, but I know you won't find empty shelves in Russian supermarkets; European products are still everywhere despite the sanctions.

What's the point? The point is that people use incredibly inflammatory (understandable, I slip up sometimes too, even though I consider myself neutral) and dismissive (totally stupid, and this is where we differ) rhetoric regarding Russia. It isn't just stupidity; it's a reflection of the global mindset held by the European political leadership. They think they can bring Russia to its knees without any impact on the European monetary system, even though Russia has pulled itself out of this exact mess before. Once again, the citizens of Europe will pay the price, just like in 2014, only this time the cost will be significantly higher (just ask the government who bailed out the crop losses from the Mississippi River area in 2014... luckily, those folks found a way to get their products to Russia via war profiteers). The question is: why and for what purpose?

In Germany, civil disobedience is already starting because energy prices are spiking. People are refusing to pay their bills. They're lucky there isn't a specialized oversight office like Hanžeković over there, because fraud is carried out in entirely different ways involving symbolic fees. If enough people join in, who knows what will come of it.

That "dismissive" attitude stems from the fact that everyone completely ignored 2015 and that first round of sanctions, as well as the fact that Russia didn't do anything during those five years to free itself from certain resources it relied on from the West. ☕
George Robinson43 George Robinson43 Regular
472 messages
joined Oct 2017
#6830 ·
Where did this idea that sanctions are causing a downturn come from? Wasn't it stated a hundred times that sanctions don't actually impact Russia??
Even the proven economic expert Joe Biden has reiterated that point on numerous occasions.

And by the way, Russia doesn't depend on mere resources; they have those in spades. Rather, they rely on the technology they have to import—technology for which they simply cannot find any substitutes.
silentnomad7 silentnomad7 Active Member
127 messages
joined Jan 2018
#6831 ·
I honestly can't wrap my head around how that poor German fellow is going to manage that gas tax hike of 2.4 cents per kWh, especially when you factor in that astronomical 19% sales tax... all on top of a salary that’s somehow three to five times higher than ours! It feels like a cruel twist of fate playing tricks on him... at this rate, they'll probably have to hand over everything he owns plus an extra 20% just to get him a bit of that cheap natural gas...
dustyowl29 dustyowl29 Regular
258 messages
joined Dec 2007
#6832 ·
The Englishmen claim they’re going to stop paying their utility bills... as if—and I say this with all due respect to their math—they aren't already living three times better than we are. ‍
nimbleviper3 nimbleviper3 Active Member
84 messages
joined Feb 2020
#6833 ·
silentnomad7 said:I honestly can't wrap my head around how that poor German fellow is going to manage that gas tax hike of 2.4 cents per kWh, especially when you factor in that astronomical 19% sales tax... all on top of a salary that’s somehow three to five times higher than ours! It feels like a cruel twist of fate playing tricks on him... at this rate, they'll probably have to hand over everything he owns plus an extra 20% just to get him a bit of that cheap natural gas...

You have to realize that a German, a Belgian, or a Dutchman would sell their soul for ten cents...
Nathan Thomas12 Nathan Thomas12 Regular
265 messages
joined Apr 2022
#6834 ·
If you look at it objectively, Russia's GDP fluctuations are tied directly to energy prices. I could play the cheerleader and claim it’s all about whether they’re printing money or not—but let's be real.
Basically, if you cut off their energy supply, they're in deep trouble, and that's exactly what's happening. Not overnight, sure, but long-term.
Joshua Myers432 Joshua Myers432 Regular
285 messages
joined Feb 2011
#6835 ·
Joshua Myers432 said:30 percent?! 🤦 🤣

It’s easy to just cherry-pick whatever window on a chart makes your point look good. Why don't you look at Russia's GDP from the moment Putin took power until now? Go ahead, tell me exactly how much they've dropped in that timeframe. ☕

None of that actually matters, though. What I really want to know is when we'll see that steep decline in Russian GDP—when that disorganized mess of a country finally collapses under the weight of these massive sanctions we slapped on them. Right now, all I see is a tidal wave hitting our own side.
rowdyraven112 rowdyraven112 Active Member
248 messages
joined Jun 2024
#6836 ·
George Robinson43 said:Where did this idea that sanctions are causing a downturn come from? Wasn't it stated a hundred times that sanctions don't actually impact Russia??
Even the proven economic expert Joe Biden has reiterated that point on numerous occasions.

And by the way, Russia doesn't depend on mere resources; they have those in spades. Rather, they rely on the technology they have to import—technology for which they simply cannot find any substitutes.

Just for the record, in case we all slept through the last eight years. Russia has been under sanctions since 2014. That means they've had an eight-year head start in building an economy that doesn't rely on Western resources. I'm not convinced they haven't already done that. A 4% drop actually proves my point. We'll see. One thing I am sure of: they won't go bankrupt before negotiations start, and that depends on whether they hit their occupation goals—goals even I can't define. Bakhmut is about to fall, which puts the defense of Siversk - Bakhmut at risk. I don't even want to think about what happens if Cleveland and Slavic fall.

Should I scour this forum and news sites to pull quotes about how they'll run out of war supplies and food within six months? Artillery is still flying. Russians have plenty of food on store shelves. It's pure underestimation. And that’s the worst part. It reminds me of Louisa May Alcott's Kosjenka and Regoč. In the end, one village decides to break a dam just to flood another. Both disappear, cheered on by their own people. A cautionary tale. ☕
George Robinson43 George Robinson43 Regular
472 messages
joined Oct 2017
#6837 ·
I have no idea who started this rumor about Russia going bankrupt.
It simply won't happen. They might see a significant drop in wealth, but there is absolutely nothing wrong with living a modest life.
In my experience, people who embrace simplicity tend to complain much less.
The Germans are always grumbling. Have you ever heard anyone complaining in North Korea? They are perfectly content because they live such frugal lives.

As for underestimating the situation….
Ever since 2014, the mantra has been "seven days to the Atlantic," and then suddenly, six months later, everyone is debating some territory like Bakhmut.
Nathan Evans78 Nathan Evans78 Regular
283 messages
joined Aug 2019
#6838 ·
Page 2 of 3 of this thread:

George Robinson43 said:Sanctions aren't meant to starve a nation to death. Think of it like this: would people survive on nothing but checks if nobody was buying their essential exports?

Well, look, after six months of shuffling around in Ukraine, they’re actually surviving on something—specifically, they're staying afloat by exporting SOME of their energy resources. Honestly, someone really needs to scroll back through the beginning of this thread; there are some truly baffling takes in here. 🤣
quietviper0 quietviper0 Member
43 messages
joined May 2023
#6839 ·
George Robinson43 said:The distinction between nominal and real values lies entirely in inflation.
You're likely referring to GDP adjusted for purchasing power parity. In that case, Russia is going to struggle significantly under these sanctions due to an inevitable collapse in trade.

To be a bit more specific than just saying "inflation," the real value is expressed through constant prices, which essentially represents the actual physical volume of goods and services produced.
Think of it this way: if you eat a loaf of bread, it’s still just one loaf of bread... whether someone decides to price that single loaf at one dollar or ten cents doesn't change the fact that you still ate one loaf, and nothing has truly changed in terms of actual substance if that bread was worth a dollar yesterday but only ten cents today...

If you look right above the graph on the World Bank link, there is a section labeled "Details" that provides a description:
Annual percentage growth rate of GDP at market prices based on constant local currency. Aggregates are based on constant 2015 prices, expressed in U.S. dollars.
George Robinson43 George Robinson43 Regular
472 messages
joined Oct 2017
#6840 ·
Nathan Evans78 said:Page 2 of 3 of this thread:

Well, look, after six months of shuffling around in Ukraine, they’re actually surviving on something—specifically, they're staying afloat by exporting SOME of their energy resources. Honestly, someone really needs to scroll back through the beginning of this thread; there are some truly baffling takes in here. 🤣

Just imagine browsing a forum after the wave of Russian bot armies arrived back when the aggression against Georgia kicked off. Since then, there have been roughly 100,000 links leading to RT, Sputnik, and various FSB portals in local languages, all desperately trying to explain away the "reality" of inevitable Russian military, social, and economic superiority.
Today, after six months, everyone is debating some place like Bakhmut.
The sanctions are working! Slowly but surely, Russia is regressing to the nineties because that is the only technological level they possess, and they have only themselves to blame for that.

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