Started by Richard Wilson4 · · 👁 362 views · 9.5K replies
…
hollowdriver13 said:“The EU basically shot itself in the foot with those sanctions” 🙂
Let's be real for a second—suppose we didn't even bother with sanctions. Let's just say the EU and the US kept providing military and financial aid to Ukraine while treating the gas and oil business as strictly "business as usual." Honestly, don't you think Putin would still have choked off the gas supply? He’d just use it as a political weapon to try and blackmail everyone into stopping the support for Ukraine.
It's not like this would be his first rodeo, either. He started setting the stage back in 2021 right after the decision to go to war was made, and we saw those gas deliveries start to tank during the second half of that year.
I’d bet money that's when we'd actually see people in the West getting riled up, yelling at politicians, “Hey, you didn't even sanction the aggressor, and we're still stuck with high gas and oil prices anyway!”
https://www.thechicagocouncil.org/re...kraine-fatigue
Support for Ukraine isn't actually flagging. Over 80% of Americans are willing to stomach higher energy costs if it means keeping up the support, and they believe we need to stick it out until the end.
We're seeing pretty much the same numbers across other Western nations, too. Public support for Ukraine isn't going anywhere.
Nathan Evans78 said:Do you have a crystal ball or something? I'm telling you, it’s just business as usual. At 9:00 AM today, we saw nearly 5,000 contracts hitting at almost 320 EUR in Rotterdam.
Over at the Canadian Stock Exchange, where our buyers pull from—prices were trading at 285 EUR today.
All those headlines we've been seeing lately regarding energy prices here in the States? Honestly, that's nothing compared to what's coming. If things keep heading down this path, small business owners are going to see utility bills jump two or three times higher than even the worst forecasts we've heard.
Sure, the government can step in to help households, but the deficit created by doing that will be so massive we'll be paying off the fallout for years after this whole mess settles. ☕
hollowdriver13 said:I don't need a crystal ball; I just need to look back at the headlines from the second half of 2021. ☕
August 21st.
https://www.cnbc.com/2021/08/24/russ...ompletion.html
European piped Natural gas supply from Russia Has slowed in recent Weeks , raising questions about The potential causes behind The drop and its implications for Global gas markets
https://www.spglobal.com/commodityin...elarus-transit
Russian gas flows to Europe remained AT 2021 lows an analysis of flow data from S & P Global Platts Analytics showed
The Main reason for The lower pipeline deliveries was reduced supply via Belarus, with total flows into Poland amounting to just 1.14 Bcm. That compared with a 2021 peak of 3.24 Bcm in January.
The Low flows via Belarus and its impact on total supply , which tally with Gazprom's own data showing a continued Low level of gas sales in Europe Last Month , lent support to European gas prices.
And there are just as many articles like that as there were back in 2021. You're kidding yourself if you think the Russians wouldn't have shut off the tap if they weren't facing sanctions.
Honestly, they probably wouldn't have even turned it off if the West had just let them roll over and annex Ukraine. Maybe.
Luckily, Nathan Evans78 knows you can't take them at their word.
Anyway, tell me—did you buy some rubles? High-quality currency, super easy to convert, right? ☕
electricsurfer47 said:Honestly, the only thing that bugs me is that the EU isn't doing enough.
Like, what about tax credits for wood stoves?
Or incentives for growing more timber—basically planting more trees for fuel.
I don't know about coal, though... what if they offered subsidies for that???
And what about hydrogen? Could hydrogen be the fuel of the future??? What if there were incentives for that too???
I know things don't change overnight.
But I can't help but wonder about diversifying pipelines and oil routes through alternative paths. What is actually being done there??? Turkmenistan and Kazakhstan have expressed interest in selling their energy to the European Union, but I never hear anything new about it.
What's the hold-up??? Is it just finding investors to build a new pipeline or oil terminal???
I want to see more in the media about what Europe is actually capable of doing and what steps are being taken to find alternatives.
I’m so tired of reading politicians say stuff like—"we're going to freeze," or "Germany can't handle this or that."
And what about nuclear power?? Couldn't this whole situation with Russia push our country or one of our neighbors to build a massive nuclear plant?? Maybe a joint project with Canada??? Like, build some top-tier facility right on the border that can withstand any conditions, maybe even a tsunami (even though there won't be one).
EDIT
What I'm saying doesn't mean we should abandon gas entirely. It just means we should find other solutions for households, and for places where gas is hard to replace, we should supply it from our own domestic sources. We could even supply things like heavy industry from local sources instead of relying on imports. I know, sounds optimistic coming from me, but if we can take the pressure off gas consumption by using something else—like for homes—then it's doable.
Nathan Evans78 said:Were you drinking coffee when the European Union started buying gas on the spot market?
https://www.iea.org/commentaries/des...inancial-gains
Based on these articles, there isn't a shred of evidence that Putin personally went out and turned the valves himself. To me, it seems much more likely that ExxonMobil was simply selling exactly as much gas as the European Union was choosing to buy on the open market.
Nathan Evans78 said:Were you drinking coffee when the European Union started buying gas on the spot market?
https://www.iea.org/commentaries/des...inancial-gains
Based on these articles, there isn't a shred of evidence that Putin personally went out and turned the valves himself. To me, it seems much more likely that ExxonMobil was simply selling exactly as much gas as the European Union was choosing to buy on the open market.
Anthony Hill5 said:It is blindingly obvious that you have been asleep at the wheel for the past year.
Nathan Evans78 said:Were you drinking coffee when the European Union started buying gas on the spot market?
https://www.iea.org/commentaries/des...inancial-gains
Based on these articles, there isn't a shred of evidence that Putin personally went out and turned the valves himself. To me, it seems much more likely that ExxonMobil was simply selling exactly as much gas as the European Union was choosing to buy on the open market.
Morgan Morales4 said:I'm right there with you. Honestly, some people would rather freeze solid just to see Putin fail and watch Russia finally fracture the way certain folks want it to. Tell me, do you have some kind of study showing how an industry, say Dow Chemical, could run just as smoothly without gas as they do with it? Meanwhile, you guys have gone all-in on solar, wind, and thermal pumps, running a company powered by every "miracle" of green tech available.
Russia is a reality, and history didn't just start on January 22nd. Western civilization won't get past this without using both conscience and common sense—and let’s not forget how much less of a "problem" oil, gas, and sunflower oil were when Iraq and Syria were being torn apart. We aren't going to move forward by ignoring that.
Russia is a reality, and history existed long before January 22nd. If Western civilization refuses to acknowledge that, they're acting without reason or sense. And let's not forget how there were no issues with oil, gas, or sunflower oil when Iraq and Syria were being torn apart. We aren't moving forward in history.
steelfox98 said:This is what happens when someone who doesn't follow the news thinks they need to drop their "truth bomb," despite this being covered repeatedly on the forums and in this thread.
The European Union has been pushing this brilliant idea of rejecting long-term contracts for years, opting instead for that lovely spot market filled with exchange speculators. No need to lecture anyone on business fundamentals; even most people get their cell phones through service contracts nowadays.
In short, they refused to sign the deals, and now they're whining about it. It's always easier for a politician to blame the supplier than to take responsibility for their own failures.
We saw this exact same narrative last year, back when both Emmanuel Macron and Angela Merkel were busy confirming that the Russians were fulfilling every single contractual obligation! We’ve discussed this here before.
Plus, let's not forget how we had a mild gas shortage the winter before last, yet allies like America were still shipping supplies off to Asia where the prices were better. We were already making fun of the European Union's green energy obsession on the forums back then.
It’s clear this isn't a new problem, and we know exactly who caused it.
As further proof, remember how Robert Habeck—the mastermind behind this "modern green policy"—claimed back in March that he’d signed a deal with Qatar to replace Russian gas. That turned out to be a total lie. The Qataris wanted a contract, but Habeck turned them down because he's obsessed with transitioning to a "green economy" tomorrow. Once the scandal broke, it came out that negotiations with the Qataris had also collapsed in 2018 for the exact same reason.
The same guy ignored the turbine issue for two months, then claimed it was irrelevant to the pipeline's operation while simultaneously accusing the key supplier of lying. People can think whatever they want about the players in this conflict, but this was a separate business relationship defined by extreme unprofessionalism toward the one supplier they clearly cannot live without.
https://www.spiegel.de/international...4-2d86cef2b747
Meanwhile:
Gas prices hit $3,200
Electricity in Germany hit €710
Electricity in France hit €801
A year ago, it was around €50-60
German Power Prices Smash Record as Energy Panic Engulfs Europe
Nancy Gomez26 said:If consumers dislike the price of gas, they always have the option to simply not buy it. The issue isn't the immediate dollar amount on the bill; the issue is the price you will inevitably pay in the future if you tolerate aggression from the Russian Federation. Could the sanctions against Russia have been drafted differently? Likely. Can the Russians turn off the tap whenever they feel like it? Always, regardless of any agreement. Russia uses gas as one of its primary tools for geopolitical leverage; the Baltic states, Poland, and even Ukraine realized this long ago through public appeals. Currently, the nation most in trouble is the one that refused to diversify its supply routes because doing so seemed like a poor investment at the time. If they had financed something other than Nord Stream 2—perhaps a pipeline toward a different supplier—it would have made far more sense for both diversification and securing better pricing across the board. They operated under the naive assumption, much like Putin himself, that the situation could be viewed strictly through a rational, economic lens. They thought he only cared about the bottom line. In reality, his primary objectives have nothing to do with economics. You cannot negotiate with him on purely economic terms; you have to position yourself strategically.
The Hague is looking into some kind of temporary waiver for the sanctions on Russia
Andrew Booth29 said:Things are going to get interesting this winter—natural gas prices in Europe have already climbed past $5.00 per unit... but hey, I guess we can always just huddle up under the blankets.
electricsurfer47 said:And what about firewood? Just buy a wood-burning stove. Makes life a lot more peaceful.
Donna Harris11 said:The Hague is looking into some kind of temporary waiver for the sanctions on Russia
Wait, I thought gas was already exempt from those sanctions?
