Sanctions on Russia

Richard Wilson4 · 2022-02-26T20:21:42+00:00

Any word on what's happening with Swift Valley?

gentlestag15 Regular

280 messages
joined May 2024

#8281 · Dec 1, 2022

Nathan Evans78 said:TTF Gas just spiked by about $150.

Just a couple of days ago, the inventory drawdown trend was sitting at around 0.39%. ☕
It’ll be interesting to see if this momentum carries even higher once that polar vortex starts rolling in next week.

At the rate we’re burning through storage right now, we’re looking at a 35% drop over the next three months of winter. If this holds, we’re going to be staring down the barrel of a spring with nothing but 60% left in the tanks. 🤣

Nathan Evans78 Regular

283 messages
joined Aug 2019

#8282 · Dec 1, 2022

So, would prices actually drop if that were enough to move the needle? I still remember how everyone here was celebrating for a few hours back when the futures contracts were trading at a loss, and then... total silence. Ever since, they’ve been sitting consistently 2 to 2.5x higher than they were before the invasion. 🤣

If we hadn't dealt with that fiasco in China and the subsequent slump in demand, we’d probably be looking at oil hovering around $100 a barrel right about now.

Anthony Hill5 Regular

379 messages
joined May 2024

#8283 · Dec 1, 2022

Donna Harris11 said:Not everyone has the budget for a Black Hawk or an F-35.
Honestly, if they actually had the cash, most of them would probably just grab a Mi-8 or some kind of Sukhoi, but they aren't allowed to. Just look at what happened with Huawei

In geopolitics, I guess market laws and basic economic logic just don't really matter.

Even Russian oligarchs would much rather be driving a Ford than a Lamborghini, but circumstances simply won't allow it.

George Robinson43 Regular

472 messages
joined Oct 2017

#8284 · Dec 9, 2022

George Robinson43 said:Brent has dipped to $81, but we really need to see how the market reacts on May 12th.
I wouldn't rule out a minor shock followed by a rally.

I got burned. It just keeps dropping and dropping and dropping.
WTI is at $71, Brent is at $76... and that powerful Ural is hovering around $50.

I have to hand it to the turkeys; they were spot on when they told Americans there was no need to ramp up production. They knew demand would fall right along with prices, and once things bottomed out, the US would simply boost demand by refilling its strategic reserves.🙏
It’s clear the professionals know exactly what they’re doing.

Noah Martin2 Member

32 messages
joined May 2022

#8285 · Dec 9, 2022

Interesting—the once most active thread on this forum has gone quiet... What happened?
I get that Westerners generally know what they're doing—they aren't quite the idiots Easterners make them out to be—but I just don't get our own users here. Everyone seems to have a hundred different arguments, yet suddenly, it's like nobody has anything left to say. Even if it's just some intense coping, please—don't let the thread die; there’s still plenty of value to be found here.

Sam Alvarez4 Regular

303 messages
joined Sep 2014

#8286 · Dec 9, 2022

Following Putin's threat to keep targeting Ukrainian energy grids, ExxonMobil has finally pulled out of Novatek.

About time...

ExxonMobil writes down stake in Russian gas firm Novatek

casualtiger2 Regular

330 messages
joined Apr 2022

#8287 · Dec 9, 2022

Regarding those fake referendums held in Russian-occupied Ukrainian territories and the subsequent annexations,
The European Council adopted the eighth sanctions package on October 6, 2022. Here’s the breakdown of what’s included:

- Expanding restrictions to hit anyone organizing or pushing those sham referendums in the Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson, and Zaporizhzhia regions—plus high-ranking officials in the Russian Department of Defense, folks supplying weapons or gear to the Russian military, anyone involved in the announced mobilizations, and actors spreading war disinformation
- Loosening the criteria for blacklisting individuals—basically making it easier to target people involved in evasion transactions
- Adding more Russian products to the import ban (think steel, pulp and paper, cigarettes, plastics, cosmetics, and even stuff used in jewelry like gemstones and precious metals)
- Extending export bans on aircraft parts, electronics, chemicals, and goods that could be used for capital punishment, torture, or other cruel and inhuman treatment
- Widening the list of goods that might help boost Russia's military tech or its defense and security sectors
- A total ban on selling, buying, transferring, or exporting civilian firearms, their essential parts, and ammo—as well as military vehicles, equipment, paramilitary gear, and spare parts
- Blacklisting the US Coast Guard—well, effectively adding the Russian maritime registry to the list of state companies you just can't do business with
- Banning European Union citizens from sitting on the boards of certain Russian state-owned companies
- A full ban on providing crypto wallets, accounts, or custodial services to Russian citizens and residents, regardless of how much crypto they're holding
- Banning architectural, engineering, IT consulting, and legal services for Russia
- Expanding the embargo from Donetsk and Luhansk to include regions in the Kherson and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts that aren't under government control

There's also a ban on shipping crude oil by sea (starting December 5, 2022) or petroleum products (starting February 5, 2023) from Russia to third countries—this includes technical assistance, intermediary services, or financing related to the transport if the purchase price per barrel tops $60. The European Council set that "price cap" level back on December 3, 2022.

Nathan Evans78 Regular

283 messages
joined Aug 2019

#8288 · Dec 9, 2022

Noah Martin2 said:Oh, man, everyone just cleared out. It’s like a ghost town now—not a soul left in sight...
Well, at least you're still here hanging in there with us; we appreciate the effort.

Look, nobody here has actually challenged the fact that those Ukrainian strikes deep inside Russian territory have effectively bypassed most of the sanctions.

Regarding GDP drops—most people here are predicting something around 5%, which is probably realistic.
As for inflation—looking at those massive spikes in places like Canada or Estonia, almost everyone here missed the mark; they were all talking about food shortages and how high prices would climb.
Foreign exchange reserves? They're actually growing.
Exchange rates? Stable. Capital controls haven't collapsed like the doomsday prophets predicted; honestly, Turkey is in a much worse spot right now than Russia is.

Do you really think those mothers, who have already sent their sons off to the front lines, care more about whether a restaurant is called McDonald's or if their kids might eventually come home eating Western snacks?

So, yeah, the sanctions still have a limited impact, and that reflects the level of engagement on this topic. If Russia had actually collapsed like a house of cards, I’m sure everyone here would be a lot more vocal. ☕

hollowdriver13 Regular

705 messages
joined Feb 2022

#8289 · Dec 9, 2022

Nathan Evans78 said:Look, nobody here has actually challenged the fact that those Ukrainian strikes deep inside Russian territory have effectively bypassed most of the sanctions.

Regarding GDP drops—most people here are predicting something around 5%, which is probably realistic.
As for inflation—looking at those massive spikes in places like Canada or Estonia, almost everyone here missed the mark; they were all talking about food shortages and how high prices would climb.
Foreign exchange reserves? They're actually growing.
Exchange rates? Stable. Capital controls haven't collapsed like the doomsday prophets predicted; honestly, Turkey is in a much worse spot right now than Russia is.

Do you really think those mothers, who have already sent their sons off to the front lines, care more about whether a restaurant is called McDonald's or if their kids might eventually come home eating Western snacks?

So, yeah, the sanctions still have a limited impact, and that reflects the level of engagement on this topic. If Russia had actually collapsed like a house of cards, I’m sure everyone here would be a lot more vocal. ☕

The amount of copium in this post is unreal. 🙏

It’s some kind of backwards math, like they're trying to claim that the current $549 billion in foreign reserves is somehow more than the $630 billion they had before the war started.

https://www.statista.com/statistics/...U.S.%20dollars.

Look, Dboro, don't act like the exchange rate doesn't matter. Did you actually buy any rubles? Have you even tried swapping them somewhere, like in Cyprus (one of the few places that will still touch them)? How many rubles are they even asking for a single dollar there? 😁

Nathan Evans78 Regular

283 messages
joined Aug 2019

#8290 · Dec 9, 2022

Seriously, take a look at their Month-over-Month numbers before you jump to conclusions.

Sure, they’re down YTD, but it isn't like they're in a freefall. We’ve already cycled through nearly ten rounds of sanctions.

So, what am I supposed to do? Am I sitting here waiting for the 25th round of sanctions just to see a total collapse? 🤣

Nathan Evans78 Regular

283 messages
joined Aug 2019

#8291 · Dec 9, 2022

Date Volume
12/02/2022 571.3
11/25/2022 567.5
11/18/2022 568.8
11/11/2022 552.1
11/04/2022 541.6
10/28/2022 550.1
10/21/2022 541.0
10/14/2022 544.4
10/07/2022 548.7

https://www.cbr.ru/eng/hd_base/mrrf/mrrf_7d/

gentlebadger Member

21 messages
joined Nov 2022

#8292 · Dec 9, 2022

Nathan Evans78 said:
Date Volume
12/02/2022 571.3
11/25/2022 567.5
11/18/2022 568.8
11/11/2022 552.1
11/04/2022 541.6
10/28/2022 550.1
10/21/2022 541.0
10/14/2022 544.4
10/07/2022 548.7

https://www.cbr.ru/eng/hd_base/mrrf/mrrf_7d/

These figures are essentially just the result of repricing—and when you look at the actual structure, more than half of that amount (around $300 billion) is still tied up and frozen by Western sanctions.

Bryan Booth82 Regular

483 messages
joined Feb 2024

#8293 · Dec 10, 2022

This is a fascinating deep dive explaining the mechanics behind the sanctions on Russian oil exports—specifically how they actually work and the massive headaches they’re causing for Russia.

lp

casualtiger2 Regular

330 messages
joined Apr 2022

#8294 · Dec 10, 2022

The Commission is rolling out its ninth round of sanctions against Russia

The Commission just dropped the proposals for the ninth package of sanctions targeting Russia. Ursula von der Leyen put it bluntly: "Russia keeps devastating Ukraine. Their attacks are specifically hitting civilians and civilian infrastructure—trying to paralyze the country just as winter sets in. We’re standing with Ukraine, and we’ll make sure Russia pays for its crimes.”

Josep Borrell, the High Representative and Commission Vice President, noted that Putin isn't just weaponizing hunger anymore—now he's using the winter itself. This ninth package is designed to hit the specific sectors critical to Russia's brutal war effort in Ukraine.

After eight previous rounds showing real impact, this ninth move is all about turning up the heat. Here’s the breakdown:

- The blacklist is expanding to nearly 200 individuals and entities—think Russian military units, specific officers, defense industry firms, members of the State Duma and the Federation Council, ministers, governors, and political parties. As von der Leyen pointed out: "The list includes those playing key roles in Russia's deliberate missile strikes on civilians, the kidnapping of Ukrainian children, and the theft of Ukrainian agricultural goods."
- Sanctions hitting three more Russian banks. This includes a total ban on transactions with the Russian regional development bank, aimed at drying up Putin's cash flow even further.
- New export controls and restrictions, particularly on dual-use items—stuff like chemical precursors, nerve agents, and the electronic/IT components the Russian war machine relies on.
- Cutting off Russia's access to all types of drones and UAVs. The proposal suggests banning the direct export of drone engines to Russia, while also blocking exports to third countries, like Iran, that might be funneling them to Moscow.
- More hits against the Russian propaganda machine: pulling broadcasting licenses for four more media channels and shutting them out of other platforms too.
- Further economic pressure on Russia's energy and mining sectors, including a ban on any new mining investments within Russia.

This ninth package builds on the EU's total ban on seaborne Russian oil imports—which kicked in this week—and the global price cap agreed upon by the G7. Von der Leyen wrapped it up by saying: "International cohesion in facing the Russian war has never been stronger. We are united and determined.”

Nathan Thomas12 Regular

265 messages
joined Apr 2022

#8295 · Dec 10, 2022

Nathan Evans78 said:Seriously, take a look at their Month-over-Month numbers before you jump to conclusions.

Sure, they’re down YTD, but it isn't like they're in a freefall. We’ve already cycled through nearly ten rounds of sanctions.

So, what am I supposed to do? Am I sitting here waiting for the 25th round of sanctions just to see a total collapse? 🤣

Anyway, why don't you tell us when those Kremlin fanboys' "predictions" will actually hit—you know, like oil hitting $200 and Europe freezing to death without gas?
Russia could be posting 20% annual GDP growth for all we care, as long as the West refuses to play ball with the imperialists.

Nathan Evans78 Regular

283 messages
joined Aug 2019

#8296 · Dec 14, 2022

11:00 US GDP Quarterly (YoY) (Q3) -3.7% -4.0% -4.0%

That 30% figure still feels like a long way off. ☕

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...uverify%20wall

We’re looking at a budget surplus of $9 billion through the first eleven months.

Nathan Evans78 Regular

283 messages
joined Aug 2019

#8297 · Dec 15, 2022

Gas reserves dipped by about 0.73% just two days ago, leaving storage facilities sitting at roughly 86% capacity.

The TTF price is hovering north of 130 EUR per MWh.

We still haven't reached any consensus on a price cap, and honestly, the US is among the group of nations currently stalling the agreement. 😁

Anthony Hill5 Regular

379 messages
joined May 2024

#8298 · Dec 15, 2022

Nathan Evans78 said:
11:00 US GDP Quarterly (YoY) (Q3) -3.7% -4.0% -4.0%

That 30% figure still feels like a long way off. ☕

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...uverify%20wall

We’re looking at a budget surplus of $9 billion through the first eleven months.

But where does that leave us regarding import figures, gentlemen?☕

Donna Harris11 Active Member

164 messages
joined Oct 2018

#8299 · Dec 15, 2022

When is this bankruptcy finally going to happen?

Bryan Booth82 Regular

483 messages
joined Feb 2024

#8300 · Dec 15, 2022

Donna Harris11 said:When is this bankruptcy finally going to happen?

It already has.
Best,

Sanctions on Russia

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