Sanctions on Russia

Carl Lee27 said:Estonia and Latvia have officially kicked the Russian ambassadors out. It feels like we’re steadily creeping toward that next big step—completely severing diplomatic ties altogether. Honestly, I’ll take any bets on how much longer Russia can even hang around the UN, or really, how much longer the UN itself survives in this current format? It’s getting intense.
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Let's be real, the UN is a total joke. You've got places like Saudi Arabia having, what, a commissioner for women's rights? Give me a break.

It's an outdated institution that needs to be scrapped.

Just start a new club for Western democracies and only let in the ones that actually meet some strict standards.

Central Bank reserves have hit $592.0B ☕

Nathan Evans78 said:Central Bank reserves have hit $592.0B ☕

So you actually calculated a deficit of over 300 in Western banks?

Richard Wilson4 said:Let's be real, the UN is a total joke. You've got places like Saudi Arabia having, what, a commissioner for women's rights? Give me a break.

It's an outdated institution that needs to be scrapped.

Just start a new club for Western democracies and only let in the ones that actually meet some strict standards.

Yeah, I honestly feel like the world has been drifting toward a new bloc-based division for quite some time now.

Christian Torres3 said:So you actually calculated a deficit of over 300 in Western banks?

That "deficit" is just a convenient way for them to offload over $400 billion in external debt.😁

Donna Harris11 said:Actually, if you look at how they’re bringing in the Donetsk and Lugansk People's Republic, I guess they're seeing a bit of a population bump right now.

Even if they did get a higher total headcount, the actual makeup of that population is what matters. Those war-torn areas are just going to be left with elderly people; the youth have already left or died, much like the rural heartlands of the Midwest.
Not to mention, a massive chunk of the young population within Russia itself has already fled or been lost.
Their demography is already a mess, similar to the rest of Europe, except unlike Europe or the USA, they can't count on an influx of young, capable, or even educated workers moving in to help.
So, things aren't looking great for them.

wiredseal7 said:Since they’re playing on their own home turf, it’s pretty unfortunate because they can basically bend the rules however they want. All they need to do is revoke visas for Russian diplomats (and maybe some Chinese ones too, just so they don't cause any trouble), and then they can start "militarizing" the UN, turning the whole thing into their own personal playground.

Since the US hasn't actually managed to get most countries on their side regarding this whole crisis against Russia, we might be looking at the end of the organization itself. At best, it’ll just turn into a hollow little "circle-jerk" for a handful of Western nations hanging out in New York City.
Ironic, really—those Bastionicar types, with Joe Biden leading the charge, will likely be the ones responsible for tearing the UN apart, much like how Adolf Hitler was responsible for the downfall of the League of Nations.

Yeah.

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The Russian Department of Homeland Security is showing off their latest "breakthrough": horse harnesses for wounded soldiers.

Total Middle Ages vibes. And we all know how that ends. 😵

Chloe Jones3 said:Even if they did get a higher total headcount, the actual makeup of that population is what matters. Those war-torn areas are just going to be left with elderly people; the youth have already left or died, much like the rural heartlands of the Midwest.
Not to mention, a massive chunk of the young population within Russia itself has already fled or been lost.
Their demography is already a mess, similar to the rest of Europe, except unlike Europe or the USA, they can't count on an influx of young, capable, or even educated workers moving in to help.
So, things aren't looking great for them.

That was back in 2014. I highly doubt places like Donetsk, the Luhansk People's Republic, or Crimea are seeing any positive natural birth rates right now; instead, they just have more mouths to feed.

Nathan Evans78 said:Central Bank reserves have hit $592.0B ☕

Anyone have any intel on how much they're swapping rubles for dollars at the exchange bureaus in Moscow, and what kind of rate we're talking about?

Russia just wrapped up the year with a massive $47 billion budget deficit

https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blog...onomy-in-2023/

Even with energy prices staying pretty high, that hole in their pockets just keeps getting deeper.

Look, the deficit always seems to blow up in December. But the real litmus test happens this year, because once China fully reopens, we’re almost certainly going to see a massive spike in both oil demand and prices.

Right now, Russia basically has three ways to bankroll this war:
- They can borrow from their own domestic capital markets—or, let's be honest, just snatch it. They've already started down this path, essentially forcing people's savings into worthless bonds.

- Central bank reserves. In theory, that money is supposed to cover imports and keep the currency stable, but when you're dealing with a dictator, it ends up being used for whatever whim strikes them. We're looking at roughly $300 billion, and about $140 billion of that comes from their 2,300 tons of gold.

- The NWF/RDIF, which are just state funds. We're talking somewhere between $150 and $180 billion. I'd bet my life at least part of that is frozen, and a huge chunk is already tied up in investing back into their own local companies anyway.

If Western limits and sanctions actually hold steady, then it's really just a matter of how long they can keep this going before they run dry. Once that happens, everyone gets hit with the biggest hidden tax in history: runaway inflation caused by printing money like there's no tomorrow.

Wait, isn't China buying up all that Russian oil right now?
I mean, it’s practically dirt cheap—the lowest prices you're going to find.

Once you actually sit down and ask yourself, "Wait, how are they even moving it?", a whole lot of things start making sense.

And honestly, that just makes things even more critical when you strip away all the Western tech and equipment they usually rely on.

The United Kingdom was actually the only major advanced economy where the IMF predicted a recession this year, forecasting a GDP dip of 0.6 percent. It’s a tough spot to be in, especially with families constantly feeling the squeeze from rising costs of living—everything from energy bills to mortgage rates is just climbing. Fox News reports that the United Kingdom is set to fare even worse than any other developed nation—and that includes Russia!

☕

Nathan Evans78 said:

The United Kingdom was actually the only major advanced economy where the IMF predicted a recession this year, forecasting a GDP dip of 0.6 percent. It’s a tough spot to be in, especially with families constantly feeling the squeeze from rising costs of living—everything from energy bills to mortgage rates is just climbing. Fox News reports that the United Kingdom is set to fare even worse than any other developed nation—and that includes Russia!

☕

Plus, their issues aren't even about the war; they're dealing with internal messes stemming from the fallout of Brexit.

https://www.euronews.com/my-europe/2...s-and-raging-w

Because of how much these sanctions are hitting home, the IMF is now looking at a pretty significant slowdown for the Russian economy throughout 2023. I guess we'll see if they're right.

Running low on paint in the Russian Federation

https://www.vedomosti.ru/auto/articl...itsitom-kraski

Honestly, if you want a Lada these days, you're basically stuck picking between black, white, or green. That's pretty much the whole palette.

Donna Harris11 said:https://www.euronews.com/my-europe/2...s-and-raging-w

Because of how much these sanctions are hitting home, the IMF is now looking at a pretty significant slowdown for the Russian economy throughout 2023. I guess we'll see if they're right.

Still, they’ll see some minor growth—unlike the United Kingdom.😲

Funny enough, the Norwegians just burned through 160 billion:
https://twitter.com/Malinka1102/stat...516205056?s=20
That massive slush fund of speculative "cash" has pretty much evaporated.