Sanctions on Russia

Gerald Chavez7 said:I almost signed off on what my colleague said down there, but I’d add that you’re falling into a logical fallacy. What does that mean? If they could sell 100 units of energy in the European Union in 2021, but that drops to 90 in 2022 and hits 30 by 2025—is that really a win for Russia? It’s absolutely not in Russia's interest for the European Union to pivot away from their energy—oil and gas—permanently. The fact that they’ll keep buying from Russia as long as they have to isn't exactly a victory.

Imports from other markets will ramp up, alternative energy sources will gain ground, and we'll see a return to nuclear power.

You haven't actually addressed my main point—which is how people are just moving the goalposts on this thread. Of course Russia’s influence is going to decline. But you can apply that same logic to a huge chunk of countries in the European Union, whose bonds would be absolutely worthless if it weren't for the Federal Reserve's counterparts over there. I won't concede that the European Union has achieved any kind of economic victory over the rest of the world until Christine Lagarde finally shuts down the bond-buying programs and starts hiking interest rates the way the Federal Reserve is doing.

Here’s a breakdown of the major corporations pulling out of Russia—some have just hit the pause button, while others are staying put. For instance, brands like Decathlon, Avon, Wells Fargo, Ford, and Dell are all staples in the American market, yet they haven't actually shuttered their operations over there.

https://som.yale.edu/story/2022/over...ia-some-remain

Nathan Evans78 said:You haven't actually addressed my main point—which is how people are just moving the goalposts on this thread. Of course Russia’s influence is going to decline. But you can apply that same logic to a huge chunk of countries in the European Union, whose bonds would be absolutely worthless if it weren't for the Federal Reserve's counterparts over there. I won't concede that the European Union has achieved any kind of economic victory over the rest of the world until Christine Lagarde finally shuts down the bond-buying programs and starts hiking interest rates the way the Federal Reserve is doing.

But the European Central Bank is still there keeping things afloat...😁

And honestly, I doubt anyone inside the European Union actually gives a damn about your "concessions" anyway...😁 It’s not like they’re losing sleep over some half-baked statements coming out of the Russian regime...

Plus, let's be real—there's a massive difference between standard stagnation or a potential dip in GDP and the absolute train wreck happening in Russia and what's heading their way..

Nathan Evans78 said:You haven't actually addressed my main point—which is how people are just moving the goalposts on this thread. Of course Russia’s influence is going to decline. But you can apply that same logic to a huge chunk of countries in the European Union, whose bonds would be absolutely worthless if it weren't for the Federal Reserve's counterparts over there. I won't concede that the European Union has achieved any kind of economic victory over the rest of the world until Christine Lagarde finally shuts down the bond-buying programs and starts hiking interest rates the way the Federal Reserve is doing.

I realize it’s a new perspective, but this habit of obsessing over day-to-day fluctuations is a classic trap in these discussions. That's just not how the world works.

Russia is spiraling toward an economic collapse—some of it is hitting now, some will hit in a few months, and the rest will trickle in over several years. Honestly, I wouldn't wish being a Russian my age and choosing to stay there on anyone; it basically means watching decades slip away...

Yes, Europe is headed for a recession (my guess is -1% in 2022)—but it won't be the first, nor the last. Nothing catastrophic is going to happen...

Jerry Clark72 said:Go to a Home Depot and take a look for yourself.

I’m actually right in the middle of remodeling half my house at this very moment, and I’ve been tackling the upper floor for about two years now. So, I think I have a decent handle on this. It isn't like things just spiked overnight; rather, it’s been a slow burn over the last couple of years—at least from my perspective being knee-deep in construction. And honestly, I don't think it has anything to do with sanctions or wars (not to mention labor costs), but more so the inflation triggered by COVID and general shifts in supply and demand.
Russia, on the other hand, has access to all the same resources we do, yet they experience those percentage jumps I mentioned almost instantly.

Jerry Clark72 said:Go to a Home Depot and take a look for yourself.

Construction material costs had already been climbing for months prior to the Russian invasion. It wasn't even some sudden spike.

silverotter72 said:I’m actually right in the middle of remodeling half my house at this very moment, and I’ve been tackling the upper floor for about two years now. So, I think I have a decent handle on this. It isn't like things just spiked overnight; rather, it’s been a slow burn over the last couple of years—at least from my perspective being knee-deep in construction. And honestly, I don't think it has anything to do with sanctions or wars (not to mention labor costs), but more so the inflation triggered by COVID and general shifts in supply and demand.
Russia, on the other hand, has access to all the same resources we do, yet they experience those percentage jumps I mentioned almost instantly.

It wasn't overnight, but calling it a "two-year process" is a stretch too. Things ramped up incredibly fast in just a few months.

And everyone knows it’s the government's fault and the endless money printing. Yet, somehow, nobody seems to be complaining that much. Not one single idiot who supported COVID mandates has lost an election yet.

The idea that this will all wrap up quickly because Russians will suddenly revolt is just naive. Sure, their economy is going to take a massive hit—that's a given—but don't hold your breath.

Fertilizer prices have skyrocketed by 400% in just four years, haven't they?

Jerry Clark72 said:It wasn't overnight, but calling it a "two-year process" is a stretch too. Things ramped up incredibly fast in just a few months.

And everyone knows it’s the government's fault and the endless money printing. Yet, somehow, nobody seems to be complaining that much. Not one single idiot who supported COVID mandates has lost an election yet.

The idea that this will all wrap up quickly because Russians will suddenly revolt is just naive. Sure, their economy is going to take a massive hit—that's a given—but don't hold your breath.

Personally, I don't think anyone actually expects an internal revolt. These sanctions feel more like a slow war of attrition. We won't see the true economic fallout of all this for quite a while—maybe five years down the line. Assuming this conflict doesn't drag on indefinitely, that's when we'll finally see if Russia has any legs left to stand on for future adventures.

We'll also get a clear picture of how successfully Europe managed to break its addiction to Russian energy and raw materials.

Dana Robinson4 said:Fertilizer prices have skyrocketed by 400% in just four years, haven't they?

Which further proves this has absolutely nothing to do with the Russian invasion.

Michael Ortiz68 said:Which further proves this has absolutely nothing to do with the Russian invasion.

Fertilizer prices are up because the Russians started choking off the gas supply back in the fall, and you need gas to make fertilizer.

Now that fertilizer prices have spiked, grain prices follow suit, and eventually, we're going to see meat and dairy prices skyrocket too.

I see this as a massive hit to the average person's wallet. Especially here in the States, where food takes up such a huge chunk of the monthly budget.

I can’t believe I’m seeing this in my morning 🤣

It’s like these warnings haven't been able to break through to the mainstream media until now... as if some new winds have started blowing lately.

One fact people seem to forget: you can't really isolate Russia when you have two massive nations with 2.8 billion people standing right there.

...Regardless, with China and India involved, Western sanctions against Russia are unlikely to be airtight. It also raises the question of whether China, India, and Russia might eventually use this situation to fundamentally reshape the global economic and financial system.

Take Russia, for example. Over the last decade, they've amassed massive gold reserves, most of which they've kept strictly within their own borders. Right now, they control about 2,300 tons of gold, worth roughly $140 billion. But despite how much its value has skyrocketed since the invasion began, they can't really use that gold to maintain the country's external liquidity—partly because of the sanctions, and partly because the West is avoiding any business with Russia altogether. For instance, the London gold market has suspended imports from Russia. Meanwhile, back in Russia, public panic has sent demand for gold through the roof. Elvira Nabiullina, who is incredibly experienced and professional at running the Russian central bank, actually decided to step back from the market just to avoid competing with regular citizens during this gold rush. So, while Americans might buy gold to hedge against inflation, Russians are buying it to protect themselves from a potential crash in the ruble, all while the central bank holds off on buying gold from commercial banks.

This whole setup led Zoltan Pozsar, a highly respected expert from Credit Suisse, to suggest that Russia could potentially leverage its gold stockpiles to bring monetary policy back toward a gold standard. In that scenario, the gold would serve as an anchor for the ruble. Now, that isn't realistic right this second, but just imagine if three powers—Russia, China, and India—decided to pivot back to gold standard principles, while the dollar and the euro remain currencies primarily dependent on the policies of the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank—essentially currencies without a "gold backing."

This is a very real possibility.

Jerry Clark72 said:Fertilizer prices are up because the Russians started choking off the gas supply back in the fall, and you need gas to make fertilizer.

Now that fertilizer prices have spiked, grain prices follow suit, and eventually, we're going to see meat and dairy prices skyrocket too.

I see this as a massive hit to the average person's wallet. Especially here in the States, where food takes up such a huge chunk of the monthly budget.

So, you're essentially admitting that this situation stems more from Russian market manipulation and their manufactured energy crisis than from the actual impact of sanctions.

slyfox43 said:So, you're essentially admitting that this situation stems more from Russian market manipulation and their manufactured energy crisis than from the actual impact of sanctions.

I'm not "admitting" anything—it's just the plain truth.

It’s clearly all setup for war. Honestly, I thought they were just turning up the heat over Nord Stream 2.

Mark Carter14 said:I can’t believe I’m seeing this in my morning 🤣

It’s like these warnings haven't been able to break through to the mainstream media until now... as if some new winds have started blowing lately.

One fact people seem to forget: you can't really isolate Russia when you have two massive nations with 2.8 billion people standing right there.

...Regardless, with China and India involved, Western sanctions against Russia are unlikely to be airtight. It also raises the question of whether China, India, and Russia might eventually use this situation to fundamentally reshape the global economic and financial system.

Take Russia, for example. Over the last decade, they've amassed massive gold reserves, most of which they've kept strictly within their own borders. Right now, they control about 2,300 tons of gold, worth roughly $140 billion. But despite how much its value has skyrocketed since the invasion began, they can't really use that gold to maintain the country's external liquidity—partly because of the sanctions, and partly because the West is avoiding any business with Russia altogether. For instance, the London gold market has suspended imports from Russia. Meanwhile, back in Russia, public panic has sent demand for gold through the roof. Elvira Nabiullina, who is incredibly experienced and professional at running the Russian central bank, actually decided to step back from the market just to avoid competing with regular citizens during this gold rush. So, while Americans might buy gold to hedge against inflation, Russians are buying it to protect themselves from a potential crash in the ruble, all while the central bank holds off on buying gold from commercial banks.

This whole setup led Zoltan Pozsar, a highly respected expert from Credit Suisse, to suggest that Russia could potentially leverage its gold stockpiles to bring monetary policy back toward a gold standard. In that scenario, the gold would serve as an anchor for the ruble. Now, that isn't realistic right this second, but just imagine if three powers—Russia, China, and India—decided to pivot back to gold standard principles, while the dollar and the euro remain currencies primarily dependent on the policies of the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank—essentially currencies without a "gold backing."

This is a very real possibility.

Man, this is so far from reality that it's hard to even bother commenting...

Besides, that Gojko Drljača guy just writes total nonsense constantly. Not to mention, he’s probably biased toward one side of the conflict anyway, which explains why he's spinning these fairy tales...

Whatever the case—this makes zero sense to anyone with half a brain.

And don't even get me started on some grand alliance between India, China, and Russia. That's nothing more than a pipe dream you'd hear from certain fringe commentators... in the real world, it's complete garbage.

Typical Gojko Drljača..🤣🤣🤣

Jerry Clark72 said:I'm not "admitting" anything—it's just the plain truth.

It’s clearly all setup for war. Honestly, I thought they were just turning up the heat over Nord Stream 2.

Look, you have a whole crowd of people who spent their time waving flags over endless paragraphs claiming this manufactured crisis was a myth, insisting that Russia is "reliably delivering" and isn't using energy as a strategic weapon.

At the exact same time, they were celebrating how effectively Russia had "played" Europe. It’s classic Putinist doublethink.

Some people are still stuck in that mindset today.

Mark Carter14 said:I can’t believe I’m seeing this in my morning 🤣

It’s like these warnings haven't been able to break through to the mainstream media until now... as if some new winds have started blowing lately.

One fact people seem to forget: you can't really isolate Russia when you have two massive nations with 2.8 billion people standing right there.

...Regardless, with China and India involved, Western sanctions against Russia are unlikely to be airtight. It also raises the question of whether China, India, and Russia might eventually use this situation to fundamentally reshape the global economic and financial system.

Take Russia, for example. Over the last decade, they've amassed massive gold reserves, most of which they've kept strictly within their own borders. Right now, they control about 2,300 tons of gold, worth roughly $140 billion. But despite how much its value has skyrocketed since the invasion began, they can't really use that gold to maintain the country's external liquidity—partly because of the sanctions, and partly because the West is avoiding any business with Russia altogether. For instance, the London gold market has suspended imports from Russia. Meanwhile, back in Russia, public panic has sent demand for gold through the roof. Elvira Nabiullina, who is incredibly experienced and professional at running the Russian central bank, actually decided to step back from the market just to avoid competing with regular citizens during this gold rush. So, while Americans might buy gold to hedge against inflation, Russians are buying it to protect themselves from a potential crash in the ruble, all while the central bank holds off on buying gold from commercial banks.

This whole setup led Zoltan Pozsar, a highly respected expert from Credit Suisse, to suggest that Russia could potentially leverage its gold stockpiles to bring monetary policy back toward a gold standard. In that scenario, the gold would serve as an anchor for the ruble. Now, that isn't realistic right this second, but just imagine if three powers—Russia, China, and India—decided to pivot back to gold standard principles, while the dollar and the euro remain currencies primarily dependent on the policies of the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank—essentially currencies without a "gold backing."

This is a very real possibility.

That's just plain nonsense 😁
. You seem to be missing the actual economic fundamentals here.

Hannah Williams8 said:That's just plain nonsense 😁
. You seem to be missing the actual economic fundamentals here.

There is always some self-proclaimed "expert" stepping up to provide a polished explanation for what someone else merely dreamt up.

Tens of thousands of other voices are simply swept under the rug, because we can't have anything interfering with the grand mission of intellectual lobotomy.

It’s nice to see you all think you know more than the U.S. Senate. 🙂

Exactly. Last night, Republican Senator Ben Sass from Nebraska hinted during a Fox News interview that the United States might just be losing its grip on the global stage.

The moves being made by the world's top oil producer, Saudi Arabia, combined with the escalating conflict in Ukraine, could serve as a massive warning sign to the rest of the world, according to the Senator.

Sass went on to suggest that China is actively trying to "push out the dollar," and he warned that the U.S. really needs to stay on high alert regarding that move.

He wrapped up by saying other nations aren't necessarily flocking to China because they like their policies, but rather because they're afraid that "America is weak."

Negotiations between Saudi Arabia and China over paying for oil in yuan are sparking concern in the USA.

China's objectives are simply China's objectives.

The article fails to grasp that even the world's largest oil producer can't change that reality, but please, keep going, you desperate soul. 🤣