Sanctions on Russia

Who could have possibly predicted that these sanctions wouldn't end up making Russia stronger and even wealthier? We Americans can only sit here and hope the rest of the world eventually imposes sanctions on us too, because clearly, without sanctions, there is simply no progress to be made.

Demand for domestic software in Russia has surged sixfold.

Residents of Skolkovo, such as Rosa and Galaxy, are also delivering incredibly promising solutions. For Russian projects, these sanctions have transformed into nothing more than a golden opportunity to secure even more profitable market positions.

https://twitter.com/sk_en/status/150...DXq7LMnU4WHH1A

Brenda Murphy3 said:🤣🤦

So, what's the verdict here? Seriously though...

No, look, the people in Germany and the German government clearly have no clue what these sanctions actually mean, and apparently, they need to be lectured on it by some notoriously brainless, incompetent Putinophiles on this forum.😁

Aside from the fact that you clearly haven't a clue what you're talking about, everything written above is a blatant lie. And that bit about two-thirds of the world not imposing sanctions? People have been debunking that so much that anyone with even two functioning brain cells would realize how much of a load of crap it is. Too bad most Putinophiles can't even find those two brain cells. 😒

It seems "Putinophile" is just the label thrown at anyone who dares to step outside the mainstream media narrative for even a second.
Germany knows exactly what they're doing; the issue is that certain people, like in Poland, expect them to act differently. Meanwhile, the media keeps attacking Viktor Orbán because he won't solve the crisis by forcing Canadian standards onto everyone else. I'm talking about the reality of potentially seeing up to 8 million new residents entering the European Union.

Morgan Morales4 said:It seems "Putinophile" is just the label thrown at anyone who dares to step outside the mainstream media narrative for even a second.
Germany knows exactly what they're doing; the issue is that certain people, like in Poland, expect them to act differently. Meanwhile, the media keeps attacking Viktor Orbán because he won't solve the crisis by forcing Canadian standards onto everyone else. I'm talking about the reality of potentially seeing up to 8 million new residents entering the European Union.

Nah, "Putinophile" is just a label thrown at anyone spouting the kind of absolute nonsense you're peddling right now.

And so what if 8 million refugees show up? You honestly think the EU can't handle that? The sanctions are worth it, period. All this whining—which is blatantly fake and just plain stupid—about hospitals and daycare centers losing their heating is completely useless. Everything will stay warm... don't you worry about it...😒

Morgan Morales4 said:In my view, the only certain result of these sanctions against Putin is the weakening of the EU—specifically Germany—and the worst part is that people don't seem to grasp what that actually looks like on the ground. Everyone forgets about the practical stuff: losing hot water in hospitals, or heating issues in ICUs, pediatric wards, daycare centers, and schools... I could go on. Now, the German Foreign Minister is talking about having to find housing for 8 million refugees across the EU. These economic sanctions show absolutely no sign of breaking Vladimir Putin or removing him politically, and there's no guarantee the world will be any better afterward, especially since two-thirds of the globe didn't join in on sanctioning Russia.

The kicker? They kicked Gazprom off the European market, even though they were the ones controlling gas storage in Germany, Austria, and the Netherlands. They kept those levels low on purpose just to keep the European Union from pulling the trigger on sanctions before the aggression against Ukraine started.

Joseph Clark37 said:So we should all just stop the sanctions so our tourism industry doesn't suffer, right? And maybe the Ukrainians should just surrender so the fighting stops and we can have a record-breaking travel season...

Just speculating about massive sanctions on Russian energy might actually push Ukraine closer to surrendering, because right now they’re basically funding the aggressor who is selling it back to them at much higher prices.
It would be even more expensive if every single country didn't jump on board with these sanctions. If everyone implements them before other producers can fix the tech or logistics to fill the gap, these sanctions will mostly just hurt the countries that don't have the infrastructure to find new suppliers. For example, if there's pressure on someone like Canada to support this, then the shortages should be spread out equally among all nations.

The tactic being played here could actually boost Putin's revenue while driving third-world countries into an economic abyss—some might even face famine if they can't afford to plant crops because everything got too pricey. That's a huge fail, because effective sanctions are supposed to drive down the value of the target goods, not make them more expensive.

All this nonsense regarding sanctions is going to look incredibly stupid if things escalate and Putin suddenly cuts off all exports to the West right before he falls. Then, the same people demanding sanctions today will be the ones writing articles saying we need to level Moscow to the ground because people in developing nations are starving.
Basically, it's total madness to speculate like this before relations improve or before oil and gas production ramps up in places like Venezuela or Iran... plus, replacing Russian coal takes time (that should have happened a long time ago).

rustywalker82 said:Just speculating about massive sanctions on Russian energy might actually push Ukraine closer to surrendering, because right now they’re basically funding the aggressor who is selling it back to them at much higher prices.
It would be even more expensive if every single country didn't jump on board with these sanctions. If everyone implements them before other producers can fix the tech or logistics to fill the gap, these sanctions will mostly just hurt the countries that don't have the infrastructure to find new suppliers. For example, if there's pressure on someone like Canada to support this, then the shortages should be spread out equally among all nations.

The tactic being played here could actually boost Putin's revenue while driving third-world countries into an economic abyss—some might even face famine if they can't afford to plant crops because everything got too pricey. That's a huge fail, because effective sanctions are supposed to drive down the value of the target goods, not make them more expensive.

All this nonsense regarding sanctions is going to look incredibly stupid if things escalate and Putin suddenly cuts off all exports to the West right before he falls. Then, the same people demanding sanctions today will be the ones writing articles saying we need to level Moscow to the ground because people in developing nations are starving.
Basically, it's total madness to speculate like this before relations improve or before oil and gas production ramps up in places like Venezuela or Iran... plus, replacing Russian coal takes time (that should have happened a long time ago).

So, you're implying that gas exports have always been Russia's sole lifeline.
If we are looking at a "wealthy" Russian military that currently runs out of fuel on the road and can't even afford medical teams on the front lines, I shudder to think what kind of force they will be by 2024 if they end up dealing with only 10-15% of their current gas volumes.

A tactic that would boost Putin's revenue while plunging third countries into economic ruin—or potentially causing famine if crops aren't prepared due to high costs—is a total failure,
because effective sanctions should drive down, not increase, the value of the targeted goods.

These sanctions will actually boost his revenue so much that his GDP might only drop by a measly 15-20% this year, assuming he gets lucky. Once the European Union starts diversifying its hydrocarbon supply, those numbers could plummet by 30% annually until they hit levels similar to Uzbekistan.

The sheer absurdity of these sanctions will be fully exposed if, following an escalation, Putin suddenly halts all exports to the West.

It is actually quite the opposite! He needs to start preparing right now for the reality that by 2025, oil and gas won't be flowing to the West anymore.
To pull that off, he needs to:
- Build a massive fleet of supertankers because Western companies won't carry his oil (since Korea and Japan won't build them, he'll likely have to rely on China)—let's say that takes five years if they book all the shipyard slots immediately.
- Construct a solid number of LNG terminals (assuming he can somehow stumble upon the necessary know-how and technology).
- Build a large fleet of LNG carriers, because again, Western companies won't handle the transport (see the supertanker point).
- Start laying pipelines toward China and India to transport 180-200 billion cubic meters annually, hoping they'll be finished by 2030.

All of this depends on being able to kick out current suppliers from those markets overnight.

Sure, he could shut everything down to the West without finding substitute markets, but then he'd just be surviving on roots and dirt.

George Robinson43, look, I’m not even touching on those half-baked energy sanctions or making claims about their GDP not crashing.

Honestly, all this talk about slapping sudden, massive sanctions on energy supplies is just a messy soup of different interests from supposed allies. It’s basically just empty threats—brandishing tools you don't actually want the enemy to grab hold of right now.
Plus, it feels pretty hypocritical. For instance, the US was leading the charge in importing Russian gas back in 2022, and let's be real, nobody in the West actually turned down their heat or started living like they were broke just to squeeze the Russians' profits.

rustywalker82 said:Just speculating about massive sanctions on Russian energy might actually push Ukraine closer to surrendering, because right now they’re basically funding the aggressor who is selling it back to them at much higher prices.
It would be even more expensive if every single country didn't jump on board with these sanctions. If everyone implements them before other producers can fix the tech or logistics to fill the gap, these sanctions will mostly just hurt the countries that don't have the infrastructure to find new suppliers. For example, if there's pressure on someone like Canada to support this, then the shortages should be spread out equally among all nations.

The tactic being played here could actually boost Putin's revenue while driving third-world countries into an economic abyss—some might even face famine if they can't afford to plant crops because everything got too pricey. That's a huge fail, because effective sanctions are supposed to drive down the value of the target goods, not make them more expensive.

All this nonsense regarding sanctions is going to look incredibly stupid if things escalate and Putin suddenly cuts off all exports to the West right before he falls. Then, the same people demanding sanctions today will be the ones writing articles saying we need to level Moscow to the ground because people in developing nations are starving.
Basically, it's total madness to speculate like this before relations improve or before oil and gas production ramps up in places like Venezuela or Iran... plus, replacing Russian coal takes time (that should have happened a long time ago).

Exactly. The way the media frames sanctions is that they're this grand tool meant to make the Russian people rise up and topple a criminal like Vladimir Putin. But honestly, if we're being real, how much effort was actually put into helping the people in Ukraine tackle the systemic corruption within their own borders? Because when you see stories about officials landing in foreign countries with suitcases full of cash, it really makes you stop and wonder what's actually going on behind the scenes. The whole idea that Putin is just going to collapse under pressure—especially while direct lines of communication between the US and Russia are staying wide open—just sounds... well, let's just say I'm not buying it.

You argue that these sanctions are essentially funding the aggressor. While true, they are actually providing about 15-20% less funding than if there were no sanctions at all, and that percentage is steadily climbing every single year.
Regarding hydrocarbons, the very fact that Vladimir Putin launched his attack in the dead of winter proves they genuinely believed this would be over in a matter of days and that the West would simply look the other way.
Had the invasion occurred in early autumn, the European Union and the West would have been completely paralyzed. Instead, they were given ample time to make those crucial initial adjustments.
This whole Germany-Qatar deal is effectively him digging his own grave for a few years down the road.

Morgan Morales4 said:Exactly. The way the media frames sanctions is that they're this grand tool meant to make the Russian people rise up and topple a criminal like Vladimir Putin. But honestly, if we're being real, how much effort was actually put into helping the people in Ukraine tackle the systemic corruption within their own borders? Because when you see stories about officials landing in foreign countries with suitcases full of cash, it really makes you stop and wonder what's actually going on behind the scenes. The whole idea that Putin is just going to collapse under pressure—especially while direct lines of communication between the US and Russia are staying wide open—just sounds... well, let's just say I'm not buying it.

Of course Vladimir Putin won't be toppled by sanctions alone. If that isn't clear, let me reiterate: we have entered a new Cold War.
For nearly fifty years, Russians lived behind the Iron Curtain, and now they find themselves back behind it. Once someone is tucked away behind that curtain, those on the other side don't particularly care who is pulling the strings inside.
I'm sorry, but when you have state television screaming during prime time about launching nukes and wiping out Warsaw in thirty seconds, there really is no other solution than to lock all of that away in a vault.

Does anyone know what kind of price tag they actually settled on? I’ve been scouring all the Mainstream Media outlets, but none of those liberal pundits seem to be mentioning the total cost of the entire deal.

Nathan Evans78 said:Does anyone know what kind of price tag they actually settled on? I’ve been scouring all the Mainstream Media outlets, but none of those liberal pundits seem to be mentioning the total cost of the entire deal.

It wouldn't surprise me if they aimed for a figure similar to what China pays Qatar as their top importer, or perhaps what Korea pays Americans.
But regardless—as we see more LNG terminals popping up and ships hitting the water, market expansion should naturally drive prices down.
We also have to consider that this supply comes from fields holding about 50% of the world's current reserves, and they've barely even begun tapping them.
Now, one must ask: is it truly wise to let Qatar effectively become the most influential nation on Earth by 2030?

George Robinson43 said:You argue that these sanctions are essentially funding the aggressor. While true, they are actually providing about 15-20% less funding than if there were no sanctions at all, and that percentage is steadily climbing every single year.
Regarding hydrocarbons, the very fact that Vladimir Putin launched his attack in the dead of winter proves they genuinely believed this would be over in a matter of days and that the West would simply look the other way.
Had the invasion occurred in early autumn, the European Union and the West would have been completely paralyzed. Instead, they were given ample time to make those crucial initial adjustments.
This whole Germany-Qatar deal is effectively him digging his own grave for a few years down the road.

Alright, listen, for the third time now—I’m not talking about just any random sanctions. I’m specifically talking about how speculating on bans for Russian energy imports ended up driving their revenues through the roof because the market spiked the value of those commodities.

rustywalker82 said:Alright, listen, for the third time now—I’m not talking about just any random sanctions. I’m specifically talking about how speculating on bans for Russian energy imports ended up driving their revenues through the roof because the market spiked the value of those commodities.

It all comes down to perspective.
We can clearly see that Russia is struggling to move its oil, and when they do manage to land a deal, it involves a massive discount of roughly $28 to $30 per barrel.
In fact, they are largely selling their oil at price points reminiscent of June or July 2021, much like what they have been doing with India.

Check this out:
https://www.rfi.fr/en/international/...s-energy-needs

ExxonMobil, the country’s largest oil refiner, bought three million barrels of Russian crude oil through a Dutch energy and commodity trading firm late last week at a discount of up to 22.7 euros a barrel to dated Brent, media reports said.

There you have it—that is how Russia moves its product. They are using Vitol to sell it at a €23 discount per barrel. Essentially, they are slashing prices just to ensure they can make any sales at all!

Ural oil is trading at a discount compared to Brent right now, mostly because of things like war risks and all those other sanctions hitting quality standards.
Plus, all this speculation about poorly designed sanctions has actually pushed the value of that stuff up—honestly, it should be way cheaper than it is.
So, even though there are logistics risks from the war that usually drag the price of Ural down, all this speculative nonsense regarding ineffective sanctions has bumped up the value of Ural oil, and especially the gas tied to Brent prices.

https://twitter.com/GeorgZachmann/st...40761499713536



https://www.bruegel.org/publications...l-gas-imports/

Right now, the current trajectory for LNG imports in the European Union is basically covering 50% of what used to be Russian gas imports. By the 2025-27 window—if things keep moving this way—we’re pretty much done with importing Russian oil and gas altogether...

George Robinson43 said:It wouldn't surprise me if they aimed for a figure similar to what China pays Qatar as their top importer, or perhaps what Korea pays Americans.
But regardless—as we see more LNG terminals popping up and ships hitting the water, market expansion should naturally drive prices down.
We also have to consider that this supply comes from fields holding about 50% of the world's current reserves, and they've barely even begun tapping them.
Now, one must ask: is it truly wise to let Qatar effectively become the most influential nation on Earth by 2030?

In my opinion, Germany had much less leverage this time around compared to Qatar; otherwise, they would have been touting this as some historic, bargain-basement deal. On top of that, Sweden really needs to get moving on building out HVDC infrastructure, which is going to run them into the ground with costs. So, when you look at the math, they're facing expensive gas, pricey terminals, massive infrastructure builds, and all while those climate targets are looming closer every day.

It feels like an uphill battle with a mountain of challenges, but I'll keep my fingers crossed for them. Because let's be real—if the German factory floor grinds to a halt, the whole American supply chain takes a massive hit. ☕

Despite everything you've pointed out, the bottom line remains: if they manage to move any oil at all, they’re forced to sell it at a massive discount. They have to rely on individual middlemen who want to play ball, and those guys end up squeezing them even further by taking a huge cut of that already low price. It’s like trying to sell premium goods through a series of hungry wholesalers—they end up moving less volume and getting much lower prices than what you'd see on the standard energy exchanges like the NYMEX.

Nathan Evans78 said:In my opinion, Germany had much less leverage this time around compared to Qatar; otherwise, they would have been touting this as some historic, bargain-basement deal. On top of that, Sweden really needs to get moving on building out HVDC infrastructure, which is going to run them into the ground with costs. So, when you look at the math, they're facing expensive gas, pricey terminals, massive infrastructure builds, and all while those climate targets are looming closer every day.

It feels like an uphill battle with a mountain of challenges, but I'll keep my fingers crossed for them. Because let's be real—if the German factory floor grinds to a halt, the whole American supply chain takes a massive hit. ☕

Why would they announce something that has only been agreed upon rather than officially signed?

George Robinson43 said:Why would they announce something that has only been agreed upon rather than officially signed?

It's all about managing PR to get ahead of inflation expectations.

What’s even more striking is the massive spike in people who are fed up with the Chancellor’s policies—about 33% are reporting they're "dissatisfied," which is a huge jump from only 18% just last month. On top of that, general frustration with the administration has climbed from 23% back in January to a whopping 32% right now.