Sanctions on Russia

hiddeneagle98 said:So, here’s the thing: the Germans are going to be out there buying up rubles using dollars, which is just going to drive their prices through the roof and make everything even more expensive for them. And then you have to wonder, how are the Russians supposed to get their hands on the dollars they actually need if they're stuck playing that game with rubles?
I mean, honestly, that banker of his isn't doing a bad job at all, especially when you consider the absolute mess of conditions he's forced to operate under.

The more they buy, the cheaper it gets; the less they buy, the higher the cost. Putin thinks he can outsmart everyone into buying 😵 But the price is always going to be set in foreign currency.

The more they pile into the ruble, the higher its value climbs. And once that ruble gets expensive, gas prices spike in dollars. At least if he actually insists on forcing us to buy the ruble just to get our hands on any fuel.

analogbear5 said:The more they pile into the ruble, the higher its value climbs. And once that ruble gets expensive, gas prices spike in dollars. At least if he actually insists on forcing us to buy the ruble just to get our hands on any fuel.

Oil is priced in dollars, not rubles. Besides, the ruble is way too volatile for that.--

So, Goldman Sachs thinks this is all just noise?! 🍿

Nathan Evans78 said:Look, I wasn't even talking about "compatibility." To me, anyone who is willing to roll up their sleeves and get to work is compatible—doesn't matter if they're blonde, brunette, redhead, Hindu, Mormon, or Muslim...

Besides, isn't the reason these topics even come up because white people can't stand each other anymore? THE LABOR SHORTAGE IS A DIRECT RESULT OF DECADENCE.

That sounds like something straight out of some American turbo-capitalist handbook: people won't work for my company BECAUSE THEY'RE DECADENT.

Nah. If you actually paid them what they’re worth—enough to live comfortably instead of just squeezing them dry—you'd find plenty of local workers. Why don't you take a break from your cozy middle-class life and go work a construction site? Are you decadent now? Or just better than the uneducated grunts?

But you aren't looking to hire; you're looking to exploit. That's why you're reaching for the "immigrants" who supposedly "want to work." Gross.

Seriously, Angela Merkel, please don't go packing up the free world.

Paul Sanders5 said:Seriously, Angela Merkel, please don't go packing up the free world.

If Merkel were actually in charge, she would simply express her "deep concern" before suggesting that we should somehow decouple the crisis in Ukraine from our business interests.

Gerald Chavez7 said:actually 2027 😉

Especially regarding gas, since it's nearly impossible for them to make up for those lost exports to the European Union. They just don't have the pipeline capacity to theoretically export to China instead.

True, the sanctions are gutting Russia's ability to intervene—whether in Ukraine or anywhere else globally.

I look at this on a daily basis—it seems pretty obvious to people here in the West why fossil fuel prices spiked in the first place: it was Putin's invasion.



Moscow was banking on these price hikes triggering mass protests (think a new wave of Yellow Vests) and general chaos across the West, hoping politicians would cave quickly just to avoid an angry electorate. Instead, what we're seeing is people in every neighborhood pooling money and supplies for Ukraine; you walk down any street and see Ukrainian flags everywhere...

It’s a fundamental misunderstanding on the part of autocrats—they seem to operate under the assumption that democracies are inherently weak...

By that same logic, plenty of folks in the USA and the EU thought sanctions—paired with arming Ukraine to maximize Russian casualties—would spark domestic unrest in Russia and lead to Putin being toppled.

rowdytiger13 said:Well, maybe Viktor Orbán will start paying for gas in rubles too, since he’s such a loyal member of the European Union. 🤣 🤣
Or perhaps this will be the turning point where everyone tells him to either get back to normal or pack his bags and head over to join the Russians. He’s already being kept in line by an increasingly agitated group of Poles.

It's all just noise—talking in circles.
The ruble still has an exchange rate, which means trading with them hasn't totally died—you can still see it happening on the Hong Kong forex markets, for instance.

Instead of ExxonMobil receiving euros somewhere in Europe and then swapping them for rubles on a forex market, the buyer now has to go out, buy rubles with their euros, stash those rubles (presumably in some Russian bank account), and then finally pay ExxonMobil.

This is essentially a pre-emptive strike against any attempts at secondary sanctions on trade conducted in Russian currency.
Plus, it actually bumped the ruble up by about 8%—not a bad result.

wiredseal7 said:By that same logic, plenty of folks in the USA and the EU thought sanctions—paired with arming Ukraine to maximize Russian casualties—would spark domestic unrest in Russia and lead to Putin being toppled.

The truth is, Putin has the support of his people—and that is the fundamental difference between what happened when the USSR collapsed and the current state of Russian policy.

Every single opponent of the government in Russia is fleeing to neighboring countries! What remains? A monolithic core that stands firmly behind Putin.

Carl Cook said:So, Goldman Sachs thinks this is all just noise?! 🍿

It strikes me as though this whole situation is merely a calculated component of an Anglo-American campaign designed to force a total embargo on Russia. That said, judging by how much Russia is currently groaning under the pressure, I’d argue that even these existing sanctions are delivering a significant sting. In all honesty, no amount of short-term sanctions can actually halt aggression in its tracks. Personally, I would reserve the option of a complete, sweeping embargo exclusively for a scenario where chemical weapons or similar atrocities are deployed.

Amanda Allen4 said:The truth is, Putin has the support of his people—and that is the fundamental difference between what happened when the USSR collapsed and the current state of Russian policy.

Every single opponent of the government in Russia is fleeing to neighboring countries! What remains? A monolithic core that stands firmly behind Putin.

It’s much like how Maddox maintained his grip back in the early nineties even after sanctions hit; you simply cannot expect a lost war and a decade of economic pressure to magically flip the convictions of an entire population overnight.

Amanda Allen4 said:The truth is, Putin has the support of his people—and that is the fundamental difference between what happened when the USSR collapsed and the current state of Russian policy.

Every single opponent of the government in Russia is fleeing to neighboring countries! What remains? A monolithic core that stands firmly behind Putin.

Well, Maddox had public support too. At least at the start.
And Hitler had public support. In the beginning.
Even Ceaușescu had people backing him. Early on.

So yeah, maybe Putin has public support right now. For the moment.

Or, put another way: the Putin they’re cheering for isn't really the guy who’s going to be in charge forever. I bet that honeymoon phase will end once those "unbridgeable differences" finally pop up.

Amanda Allen4 said:The truth is, Putin has the support of his people—and that is the fundamental difference between what happened when the USSR collapsed and the current state of Russian policy.

Every single opponent of the government in Russia is fleeing to neighboring countries! What remains? A monolithic core that stands firmly behind Putin.

Putin secured the people's loyalty by providing stability and economic growth following the chaotic 1990s that followed the fall of the USSR. He effectively blamed the failures of that era on democracy itself, using it as a pretext to consolidate his authoritarian grip. At the time, Americans—or rather, the citizens there—were more than willing to trade certain liberties for a full stomach.

With these sanctions, he is effectively dragging the nation back to those dark 1990s; we shall see how much longer a failing economy can sustain itself simply by pointing fingers at the West. A single decision has essentially flushed twenty years of economic progress and regime stabilization down the drain. Was he perhaps under the delusion that the country was too massive and too deeply woven into the global economy to be crippled by such measures? It appears a series of catastrophic miscalculations and errors in judgment have been made.

wiredseal7 said:By that same logic, plenty of folks in the USA and the EU thought sanctions—paired with arming Ukraine to maximize Russian casualties—would spark domestic unrest in Russia and lead to Putin being toppled.

No, nobody is actually expecting a new color revolution here—there's just this lingering hope that someone from one of those three-letter Russian agencies will finally take care of Putin...

Gerald Chavez7 said:No, nobody is actually expecting a new color revolution here—there's just this lingering hope that someone from one of those three-letter Russian agencies will finally take care of Putin...

But why jump straight to a revolution or a clandestine operation? There's a much more straightforward way to look at this. When are the next elections in Russia scheduled?
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🤣

I’ve gotta handle this one manually—this whole narrative about how Putin single-handedly fixed an economy that Yeltsin completely trashed.




Source: World Bank, via tradingeconomics.com

analogbear5 said:I’ve gotta handle this one manually—this whole narrative about how Putin single-handedly fixed an economy that Yeltsin completely trashed.




Source: World Bank, via tradingeconomics.com

Is it any wonder? Of course he isn't the architect of this recovery; it is nothing more than the volatility of oil prices. Yet, does it not stand to reason that the average citizen—particularly those who are older or lack formal education—would naturally credit him for the growth?

Let's see what kind of excuses they start making once there's zero money left for pensions or paying off all those bureaucrats.

Mass protests in Russia, 2011-2013

Russian budget, expenditures:

Well, looks like General Motors is officially out too. It’s honestly pretty wild how they sat on their hands for this long, especially when it’s been blindingly obvious for weeks that the supply chains are totally trashed and there aren't enough parts anywhere to actually get a single line moving. I guess someone in a corner office was probably clinging to the hope that negotiations would wrap up the war in a heartbeat, right?

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...a-over-ukraine