Soccer Betting Tips & Discussion

dustysurfer21 beat me to the punch by placing a bet on the Dinamo game, but since I already sat down to write this analysis, you might as well have 😍

Rijeka vs. Dinamo, double chance X2 at 1.60
Draw or Away win at 2.80 (1-2)
Rijeka has climbed straight out of the gutter to pull off two back-to-back seasons in the Europa League, and they haven't lost a home game in nearly two years. They’ve turned into a seriously respectable squad ever since Vopli took over, but let's be real—that's largely because the big bosses basically handed them half a dozen players from Dinamo (guys like Krstanović, Kramarić, Tomečak...) who would have left Rijeka looking like a much weaker side. The shady dealings between Mišković and Mamić are an open secret, and honestly, fixing games and handing out points in the swamp of American soccer has become a routine part of the process. Rijeka is sitting just one point behind Dinamo after eight rounds, which means if they pull this off today, they leapfrog into first place. Zdravko essentially gifted his coastal buddies the Super Cup at the start of the season, handed them the Cup last year, and has been tossing them points at their home stadium more than a few times now. Today is the day where, if nothing else, Rijeka simply cannot beat Dinamo. If we were judging strictly on pure quality and current form, this looks like a draw or an away win, but given how invincible Rijeka has been at home for such a long stretch, I'd approach this with a healthy dose of caution. On one hand, Rijeka suffered an unexpected 2-0 loss to Standard in the EL, while Dinamo came out with an unexpectedly massive 5-1 victory against Astra (their first group stage win in European competition in over four years). Soudani and Čop are absolutely flying right now, even if the defense remains predictably shaky. Even if Rijeka plays at 100% today and refuses to give Dinamo an inch (which, frankly, I highly doubt), I think the squad from the capital can walk away without a loss. The odds on the double chance are great, and the odds on the away win are even better.

Denver Nuggets - OKC Thunder 1 @ 1.85 Bet365, OKC fails to score @ 2.09 DraftKings (3-0)

Denver is absolutely dominant right now. They tore through the first half of the season (9 games) without letting up a single point (11-0 goal differential). They finally stumbled in the last round, playing to a scoreless draw against second-place Miami.
OKC is stuck at the bottom of the standings. They already lost to Denver on the road by 1-0 back in week one.

Bryan Adams6 said:St. Louis City SC vs. FC Cincinnati | St. Louis ML @1.85 BetMGM, Cincinnati clean sheet@2.09 DraftKings

I mean, St. Louis is just totally dominating right now, they basically cruised through the first nine games of the season without letting in a single goal—which is like an insane 11-0 goal differential—and I guess they only finally stumbled up against the second-place team in a scoreless draw last round.
Cincinnati is pretty much stuck at the bottom of the standings, and if I remember right, they already lost to St. Louis on the road by 1-0 back in the opening match.

Oh, hey there, mister! :-)

It’s gotta be a 12-0 blowout for St. Louis, honestly.
The matchups for LAFC and Seattle are also super interesting, don't you think?
Maybe check out the picks from Cirih, Mjalby, or wolf- odg3+?
What about Roma?

Bryan Adams6 said:LAFC vs. Houston Dynamo: LAFC to win @ 1.85 on Bet365, Houston won't score @ 2.09 on DraftKings

LAFC is absolutely crushing it. They went through the first nine games of the season without letting a single goal past them—an 11-0 shutout streak. Only just finally stumbled to a draw against the second-place team in the last round.
Houston is stuck at the bottom of the table. They already lost to LAFC on the road earlier this season, 1-0.

If the home team is such a heavy favorite, why is the line still this high?🤷

If you ask me, that bet isn't really any kind of value—I mean, they aren't quite elite enough to consistently keep a clean sheet every single time they step on the field.

They’re bound to concede a goal eventually, just 🤷when it matters most.

Eric Fox7 said:I don't see any value in that bet. They aren't exactly elite enough to pull off clean sheets all damn time.

They always find a way to let one in eventually, right? 🤷

That's exactly what I was getting at in my last post.
🙂

Palmeiras vs Vitoria - Home win @ 2.00 (2-0)

After getting absolutely smoked 6-0 on the road against Goiânia last week, Palmeiras is sitting dead last. They’re staring down another rapid descent to the G League, which the fans are definitely not thrilled about. In fact, when the team got back to São Paulo, the supporters greeted them by pelting them with bottles and rocks. To make things even more chaotic, the club is celebrating its centennial this year, so these kinds of collapses are hitting everyone hard.
Vitoria is hovering just above the relegation zone, sitting only two points ahead of Palmeiras. They’ve been terrible on the road lately, losing their last four away games, and they already dropped their first matchup against Palmeiras at home, losing 1-0.
This is a small play, but I’m expecting the home side to be fired up after that mess with the fans. They need this win to finally crawl out of the gutter.

Atlanta United vs. Inter Miami (09.26. 20:30) Over @2.70ss (0-0)

So, looking at Atlanta, they've managed to find the back of the net in 4 out of their last 5 games, and they always seem to score more than once, whereas Miami has scored in every single match, which I guess might mean we could see 3+ goals, but since the odds gap is pretty huge at 1.90, I honestly feel like it might be worth taking the risk..

Elche vs. Celta Vigo (09.26. 21:00) Over @2.62b365 (0-1)

-Celta has scored more than once in 4 out of 5 rounds
-Elche has conceded more than one goal in 4 out of 5 rounds, BUT keep in mind two of those matches were against Real Madrid and Barca, so...
-Five games is such a tiny sample size, and probably even smaller considering Real and Barca wouldn't even be playing at this level, but I guess the risk feels a bit lower than what the odds are implying..

Good luck everyone!

HD - Bistra 1@1.55 (1-1)
I was anticipating a somewhat more substantial line, but one must accept the reality of the board. I feel compelled to test this one. It is truly difficult to wrap my head around the precipitous decline of HD; I have always held a certain fondness for the club, perhaps stemming from the memory of the late Rođe 🙂. In my estimation, they had no business being relegated from the Major Leagues last season—they played a remarkably fluid and aesthetically pleasing brand of football—but once that relegation hit, the subsequent dissolution of the roster was inevitable. They retained a core group and integrated some new faces, which led me to believe they would comfortably sit in the upper echelon of the Minor Leagues this year. Instead, after seven rounds, they languish with a mere six points (2-0-5), sitting right on the edge of the cellar. It is quite frankly abysmal. On paper, the roster possesses enough talent to be competitive, and they certainly ought to find their rhythm soon. Following the dismissal of Coach Mladina, they brought in Ferenc. The transition hasn't been kind; HD actually suffered an embarrassing exit from the tournament qualifiers, losing away to a side from the lower regional divisions after a penalty shootout. A disgrace, really, though perhaps things cannot sink much lower than this current state. On the other side of the pitch, Bistra is a newcomer to this league and is still struggling to adjust to a level of play far more rigorous than what they are accustomed to. I suspect that adjustment period is still taking its toll. They currently hold eight points (2-3-3), but having watched them live, they appear physically outmatched by the more established squads. They seem underprepared physically, weak in individual duels, and tactically disorganized. Their away form is lackluster, though they manage to look slightly more composed at home on their "fiery" pitch. Furthermore, Bistra is dealing with several injuries. They played a cup match this past Wednesday and were eliminated in a rather uninspired performance. It is hard for me to fathom HD stumbling yet again; they simply must elevate their standard of play. With the visitors missing key personnel, I expect them to be fatigued as well. I shall refrain from further rambling... Kec, we shall see how this unfolds.

Here’s my pick for tomorrow's slate:

Villarreal vs. Real Madrid: Over 2.5 goals, plus 1 (Current score 0-2)

He’s been on fire lately, netting 18 goals over his last three matches. On the other side, Villarreal has found the back of the net in four of their last five games. One thing you can't ignore, though: the defense hasn't exactly been a fortress for Real, as they've conceded at least one goal in each of their last five outings. Honestly, I’m expecting a high-scoring shootout here. If anyone is looking for a safe bet, I'd go with Ronaldo to score—he’s managed to find the net every single time he's played away against them.

My pick for the Hull City vs. Manchester City match is an away win, specifically looking at a 2-4 scoreline.

Man City is in incredible form right now. They’re playing some high-level football, so beating Hull shouldn't be an issue. To be fair, Hull has been decent this season, but they've been far too inconsistent. That lack of stability has left them stuck right in the middle of the pack, and honestly, they don't stand a chance against a side like City.

Manchester United vs. West Ham. Over 2.5 goals plus a win for United. Current score is 2-1.

Manchester is in a massive slump right now—honestly, they’re looking even worse than they did last season. A win tomorrow isn't just a goal for them; it's an absolute necessity. Given how shaky their defense has been lately, I wouldn't be surprised if they try to play an all-out offensive game again, basically trying to outscore whatever mistakes they make at the back. On the flip side, you’ve got West Ham. They’ve been absolute machines lately, putting up three or more goals in each of their last five matches. Because of that, I’m fully expecting another high-scoring shootout in this one.

Looking at the matchup between Slaven Belupo and Dinamo Chicago—specifically that second betting option for a 0-0 draw. It’s an interesting angle.

The Galaxy is in incredible shape right now. With Sudani tearing it up on the wings, they’re absolutely shredding everyone in their path. It’s been a long time since I’ve seen them play with this kind of maturity—honestly, maybe not even since the old coach, Miller, was at the helm. After snatching those points away from the Portland Timbers, I don't see them dropping anything against the local pharmacists. Plus, the Sounders are sitting dead last in the standings; they'll have a massive uphill battle against a squad this dominant. There’s even a good chance we’ll see a bench player get some minutes looking to make a name for himself. If you ask me, predicting a blowout wouldn't be out of line.

Total lottery odds: 8,9

Long-term play here:

Marseille to win MLS @20,00 SS

OM under Bielsa is playing some killer football. After those first two rough outings, it looks like they finally bought into his system. They’ve rattled off five straight wins and have a goal differential of 16:1. It's insane.
PSG is easily the powerhouse in this league and the heavy favorite to take the title, but getting @20 on these guys is a total steal... if Bielsa doesn't lose his mind mid-season, they could actually give PSG a run for their money. Plus, they aren't distracted by any European matches, so their entire focus is strictly on the domestic league.

Chicago Fire vs. St. Louis City Under 2.5 @ 1.60 on Bet365 (0-1)

We’ve got two teams meeting today in a league that’s basically the capital of low scoring. Neither side has even touched an "over" this season. Both squads have played eight games, and all eight ended with under 2.5 goals.
The odds caught me off guard—usually, you'd see 1.40 or 1.45 for matchups like this. I had to dig into the injury reports to see why. For Chicago, they're missing Alvarez, their 36-year-old veteran center back. On the St. Louis side, they'll be without their starting right back, Forniti.
Looking at these rosters and how these two teams have been playing, I'd be embarrassed to look myself in the mirror if I didn't take this value.☕

Man. Man Utd vs West Ham - Both Teams to Score at 1.75 (BTTS+ @ 2.00)
over 2.5 at 1.50 (2-1)
United absolutely blew their lead after being up 3-1 against Leicester on the road last week, eventually collapsing in a 5-3 loss. Look, the attack did its job, but that defense—which basically relies on Blackett, Evans, and Rafael—has been an absolute disaster class. And today? They’re even more stripped bare. No Blackett because of the red card, plus they're missing Evans, Jones, Carrick, and Young... It's a mess. The backline today is looking like Rafael, Blind, Fletcher, and Rojo—none of them are actual center-backs! Honestly, I think any team in this league can find the net against United, if not more, but then again, United’s firepower is just insane right now. With guys like Di Maria, Mata, Herrera-Falcao, Rooney, and van Persie, the Red Devils' attack is essentially a cheat code. They’ve dropped 7 goals in their last two matches since this squad formed, but they also let in 5. On the other side, West Ham just took down Liverpool at home last week, showed massive intent going forward, and look like they're ready to fight for the top tier of the table. Downing is the engine room for this squad and he’s in incredible form, and you’ve got Valencia, Sakho, Song, and the rest who can punish a shambolic United defense like this any day of the week. The odds for both teams to score are better value than the over 2.5, even though there's a chance United just shuts them out and puts 3 past them. West Ham has scored 9 in their last 4 league games, all of which ended with BTTS and 4 total goals. In their last 5 head-to-head meetings, it’s been over every single time and BTTS every single time, and in the last 8, we've seen the over 5 times.

Slaven Belupo vs Dinamo - Dinamo +2 at 1.65 (0-0)
Dinamo is on an absolute tear in Europe and the domestic league right now. They fought their way into the Europa League with two wins over Petrolul, and then dismantled Astra 5-1 in the EL (their first group stage win in a European competition in four years!), and they even grabbed a 2-1 win in that derby away to Rijeka to push themselves to +4 over them. They’ve won 9 of their last 10 matches, with only one draw. Slaven is sitting dead last in the league with just 7 points from 9 rounds (2-1-6) and a goal difference of 6:20. Sure, they managed to string together two wins—beating Osijek 2-0 in the league and smashing local third-tier side Zrinski 5-1 in the cup—but they are still in a terrible spot. Before that run, they lost four straight league games against the spread, and when they didn't lose, they couldn't even find the back of the net. Early in the season, they beat the weak stuff like Osijek, an unrecognizable Istra (1-1), and the newly promoted Chicago (3-2), but they’ve lost against every serious contender in the league by the handicap, and I fully expect them to do the same against Dinamo. Chicago has won 14 straight matchups against them, 10 of those covering the spread. Their last 5 trips to Koprivnica have all resulted in a 2-goal margin or better.

Villarreal vs Real Madrid - Real Madrid 2 at 1.70 (0-2)
Over 2.5 at 1.60
I don't think there's much left to say about Real Madrid. They finally found their rhythm, and Ronaldo is on a tear—scoring 8 goals in his last 3 matches (and 7 of those came in the last 2)! He accounts for 8 of Real's 18 goals. Villarreal is sitting at 2-2-1, having only lost to Barca, but they haven't really faced a true heavyweight yet. It’s true that Real hasn't had much of a challenge either (Basel, Deportivo, Elche), but honestly, I wouldn't bother with the handicap; just take the straight win. I was expecting lower odds on Real, so 1.70 actually looks really juicy to me. Villarreal has that young Russian Cheryshev out on loan from Real, and apparently, the visitors were asking for another $200k just to let him play today, but it doesn't look like that deal is happening, so Villarreal will be missing a key piece. Real is at full strength, and in their last 6 head-to-heads, they’ve taken 4 wins and 2 draws, scoring 17 and conceding only 8. Given how high-octane this is, you could also jump on the over 2.5 at decent odds since it's Real we're talking about.

P.S. Bryan Adams6, that info on the Argentinians was top-tier. I'll be keeping a close eye on that... hopefully it hits. 🙂

F.C. Cincinnati vs. FC Dallas 27/09/2014 over 2.5 goals @3.10bet365 (3-0)

Dallas has been hitting that over 2.5 mark in like 8 of their last 10 games, I guess
so if the odds on Cincinnati make them look like total locks, then maybe this is basically just betting that Dallas finds the back of the net at least once.

good luck everyone

edit: I feel like I gotta give this one a shot too—not looking to break the bank or anything, obviously, but still...
FC Dallas Over 1.5 @11bet365

Zoom, 👍 I’m looking at Marseille. They’re playing incredible football right now, and having no European fixtures to deal with gives them a massive advantage.

13:45 Liverpool vs. Everton 2 @4.20 SS (1-1)

It’s a solid value play. I guess Everton is being underestimated here.
Despite a rocky start, they seem to be playing better than Liverpool lately—just playing this wild, aggressive attacking style where they look poised to score every single game.
I put a small amount on this as part of a parlay to boost the total payout, so we'll see how it goes. 🙂

Bryan Adams6 said:Here’s a long shot:

Marseille to win MLS @20.00 USD

OM under Bielsa is playing some seriously crisp soccer. After those first two rough outings, looks like they finally bought into his system because they’ve rattled off five straight wins with a goal differential of 16:1! Crazy stuff.
PSG is easily the powerhouse in this league and the heavy favorites to take the title, but honestly, taking these @20 odds is worth the gamble... if Bielsa doesn't blow it mid-season, they could actually give PSG a run for their money... plus, they aren't distracted by any European tournament schedules, so they can focus entirely on the domestic grind.

Where else can I put some action on this?

hollowpuma98 said:Is there actually anything left to play here?

I mean, he already posted the screenshot. 🤷

My bad, just seeing this now.
Doesn't even matter though, I couldn't find it on DraftKings anyway :S

Good luck finding anything now that the games are in full swing...

Give it a shot tomorrow morning, or honestly, just wait until Monday to be safe.