Posts by wiredseal7

Arthur Watson4 said:Who knows, usually it's just someone being careless with a cigarette.

Look, they wrapped that case up quick 🤣

I mean, why even bother? This woman rents an apartment in her own building and then spends her time driving around NYC in a Mini—switching between several different license plates just to stay under the radar.

For the skeptics out there—
I can't access external links directly to read that specific tweet, but if you paste the text here, I'll get right to work rewriting it in that weary, cynical voice you're looking for. Just drop the content below.

They wrapped this case up fast. Just as everyone suspected—it’s an FBI job.

The bomber fled to Estonia, which is basically turning into what Americans would call an "aider and abetter" to terrorism unless they make an arrest pronto.

Kate Cook27 said:The status of the Russian language in Ukraine

Back when I was looking at data from ten years ago, 45% cited Russian as their primary language—now it’s plummeted to just 16%. At this rate, you won't find a trace of it left in a few years. All of this has happened since February 24th.

Referendums

They’re slated for next month, though there’s a chance they might wait until winter hits. Honestly, it doesn't much matter—it'll likely be a 99% landslide for joining mother Russia anyway.

Mariupol

An attempted hit on the so-called mayor of Mariupol.

I assume the rebel parts of Donbas and Crimea were included in those stats ten years ago.
Even back then, they were speaking almost exclusively Russian over there.

Nancy Gomez26 said:It’s a particularly effective trick when you think you're supporting local industry, only to find the fine print stating it was manufactured for an American distributor located halfway across the globe.

Not that it matters much, since everything is owned by some massive foreign conglomerate anyway.

Richard Wilson4 said:Does Russia have to pay up for Afghanistan too, or what?

They have to—honestly, every ex-Soviet state should probably chip in—but only after the bill for Vietnam finally gets settled. ☕

But let's get real here: nobody is going to force the USA or Russia to pay out war reparations to anyone.
Russia is a nuclear power—as we can see, they're pretty much immune to sanctions—so nobody's going to stroll into Moscow and start dictating terms of surrender.

Unless the Ukrainians somehow manage to hit 🙂 what to be SF, which would likely just result in someone pulling the nuclear trigger to shut the whole thing down.

And if the Americans, the European Union, and everyone else decide to just keep those frozen assets, relations with Russia will stay stuck at a level similar to the USA-Iran standoff.

It looks like they’re getting a real lesson in reality out in the Donbas—turns out when that idiot from Kyiv decides to play by Cosa Nostra/Mossad/Al-Qaeda rules, things get messy quickly.

The only thing is, they were such amateurs that they ended up killing the daughter of the guy they were actually trying to take out.🤦

They’ve gone and activated some sleeper cells in Russia and Crimea. There are plenty of Ukrainians living in Russia, so I guess finding candidates isn't exactly a struggle—not to mention the CIA and British intelligence are likely pulling the strings behind the scenes.

dustyowl29 said:That would actually be a win-win for everyone. Plus, you'd have war reparations to consider. And the Russians could go back to living relatively normal lives.
Because right now, this situation is dragging Russia toward becoming USSR-2—or honestly, something even worse geopolitically.

War reparations? Hard to see that ever happening—not when they can't even cover the cost by just seizing those Russian foreign reserves.
Look, I’m not against it. Once the Americans and their client states finish paying out all the damages to Iraq, Afghanistan, Mexico, Syria, Libya, and everywhere else they’ve torn apart, maybe it’ll finally be Russia's turn.

Olivia Turner49 said:Russia's probably going to shut down Nord Stream 1 for three days flat
And then just throttle everything back to 20% capacity like nothing happened.

Honestly, I have no clue what Russia thinks they’re gaining by playing these massive extortion games with Germany, especially since Germany seems to be holding their ground and refusing to blink.

They’re digging their heels in against the entire American economy, too.
If Germany goes under, the whole European Union feels the hit—so yeah, it affects us.

And honestly, they might just leave it closed anyway, since that last turbine is probably toast by now.

But I'm seeing some slightly more rational thinking coming out of Berlin lately—maybe even a reopening of NS2. Though, I doubt Gazprom will send a single cubic foot through it until they get a permanent, final certificate for the pipeline. You know, that piece of paper Putin will likely hang on some wall in the Kremlin. 🍿

Looks like there was some minor posturing between Russ and the US in the Ionian and Mediterranean Seas back in July—something our local news outlets didn't even bother to mention while they were busy obsessing over the war in Ukraine.

They finally got cocky once they closed the gap to Red Bull and Mercedes—and then they hit the gravel trap and the barrier.

I guess Mattia Binotto didn't have the guts to try a double stack—didn't want to mess things up even more. For some reason, they gave Sainz the priority, maybe because his wing was damaged (or whatever excuse they cooked up).

Maybe Sainz didn't want to hold up Lewis Hamilton during the SC, fearing Charles Leclerc would snatch the win from him. He practically lunged at Leclerc right after the restart instead of playing nice and holding the line.

It was supposed to be Sainz's moment—he's been waiting forever and finished second more times than I can count. Still, he just isn't on Charles Leclerc's level this season; he lacked that extra gear, especially when being hounded with that broken front wing—unless, of course, that somehow helped his tire management.
He also choked under pressure while Max Verstappen was breathing down his neck. That mistake would've cost him the race entirely, if Max hadn't picked up debris from an AT car and trashed his floor.

Melissa Rivera5 said:Honestly, Putin could just pack up and leave all those illegally occupied territories, including Crimea, right this second. I mean, nothing is actually stopping him from doing that except his own ego, I guess.

The question remains the same: what's actually in it for him?

Anthony Hill5 said:The evidence regarding the buildup of the Ukrainian military and their preparations for a military liberation is found right in Lavrov's own words. This man has never been known to lie, so why should we doubt him now? He stated just the other day that they haven't attacked anyone. Surely that should be enough for you.

https://twitter.com/5thSu/status/136...bS9XAgjLvdNZHQ

Videos like this were popping up right around that time—long before the Russian side started releasing their own footage.
And the intensity of the conflict from the Ukrainian side spiked during that exact month, all well before "Putin" decided to act.

Of course, the Western media just glossed over it—even Wikipedia, which is supposedly "neutral," though that really depends on who's editing the page.🙂

Anyway (and circling back to sanctions since we're in the OT thread), I’m reading that Canada pushed through a law to seize Russian assets.
Small issue, though—that’s actually illegal under international law:
https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/c19...tion-1.6478115

hollowdriver13 said:So, are we saying there wasn't actually a massive buildup, just plans for one?
The narrative coming from the Russian side was that Ukraine had already assembled about 120k soldiers there, and yet they never actually launched a strike against the Russian positions in the RAO regions. Plus, all that troop movement near the Belarusian border surely could have helped the folks in Donbas, but hey, they never actually showed any real proof of this supposed buildup.

Back at the start of autumn, everyone—including the International Energy Agency—was begging Russia to ramp up gas supplies because levels were hitting historic lows.

https://www.theguardian.com/business...-before-winter

So, the idea that Russia wasn't using oil and gas as a weapon just doesn't hold water. With their invasion of Ukraine, it’s pretty obvious why they did it: they were trying to squeeze Europe (even if people thought back then it was just pressure to get Nord Stream 2 approved, which clearly wasn't the end game—that would've just been the icing on the cake).

Kazes, I get that Germany wanting to nationalize the pipeline isn't ideal, but how is that law passed through the Duma okay? If some multinational corporation decides to pull out of Russia, the state can just automatically seize all that company's assets on Russian soil. Could you explain how that aligns with international standards? What's really the difference between that and what Germany is currently considering?

https://rtvi.com/news/gosduma-prinya...hnyh-kompanij/

How so? What do you mean by that?

Ukraine prepped an "Ukro-storm" twice—and both times, the Russians responded by massing troops right up against the border. This second time around, Putin decided to just settle the issue permanently, so here we are—stuck in a war.

Look, my point is that from the Russian perspective, they probably saw the '22 push coming a mile away. Back in '21, they weren't exactly geared up or tactically ready for a full-scale fight with Russia—they couldn't afford to risk a direct confrontation then—but they didn't just pack up and leave. You can see it in the way they kept stacking troops along the Donbas; they were just waiting for the right moment.

hollowdriver13 said:Well, off the top of my head? For the entire last year, they kept deliveries at the absolute bare minimum allowed by their contracts. They were basically draining out their storage facilities located within the European Union just to clear them out, setting the stage to squeeze energy consumers later. It’s pretty obvious when you look at the paper trail—after the invasion kicked off in February 2022, leaked documents showed the United States already had intel back in April 2021 that Russia was gearing up for an invasion.
Anyway, feel free to keep spouting your nonsense if it makes you feel better.

It looks like Russia had some decent intel in Ukraine, knowing they'd be facing another Ukrainian push toward Donetsk and Luhansk—which naturally triggered Russia to start massing troops.

So they throttled the gas, while simultaneously hoping for a quick green light on Nord Stream 2 (spoiler alert: it didn't work, since the new German government played exactly how they were told).

But honestly, why didn't those "brilliant" Germans sign a contract guaranteeing larger gas volumes upon request? Everything was still strictly by the book.

What *isn't* by the book or following international norms, though, is what Germany is threatening now—nationalizing Nord Stream 2 and rerouting everything to a floating LNG terminal.

hollowdriver13 said:The actual link you posted says exactly what I told you: it only covers the Facilitated Travel Document (FTD) so residents of the exclave don't have to apply for new paperwork every 90 days to pass through the Schengen Area. That applied to all types of transit—car, air, rail—but there aren't any special conditions for freight like Rogozin is rambling about, other than they consolidated two border crossings into one joint one to speed things up.
Also, if you actually read what Lithuania banned, you'll see it only applies to cargo that is under EU sanctions.

Whataboutism regarding Canada...🙄

Look, the fact that he's a customs official at NASA should imply some level of intelligence and professionalism is expected from him, rather than some idiot spreading war-mongering rhetoric and making threats about blowing up the ISS, Sarmat missiles, and all that nonsense. And no, I didn't call every single Russian a bag of candy and vodka, I was just talking about him.
He has a PhD in philosophy, so he's not an expert in international law; bringing up his doctorate is just a logical fallacy—an appeal to false authority.
And I don't know why you're bringing up Arestovych. I've never shared anything from him because the guy just talks himself into circles constantly.

It confirms no concrete deal was struck, but the sentence I quoted isn't made up—it's just that what it says isn't being honored anymore.

Yeah, it’s not much, but it’s the exact kind of loophole Russians love to exploit. Even without a formal agreement, blocking transit for civilian goods is just wrong.

I brought up Canada because it's a nearly identical geographic headache, even if Ottawa hasn't had the guts to pull a move like Lithuania. And I mentioned testing potential double standards (which were avoided) 😁

There's a reason for the "whataboutism"—my stance is the same: closing these corridors is unacceptable.
Take last year, for example, when Azerbaijan blocked Iranian transit to Armenia via that tiny stretch of road through the former Artsakh territory. The Iranians even threatened them with weapons, but things eventually settled down civilly.

You’d expect some level of intelligence and seriousness from a Roscosmos official, rather than some idiot spreading war propaganda and making threats about blowing up the ISS or using Sarmat missiles and all that crap. And no, I didn't call every Russian a bag of vodka, just him.

True, you didn't generalize everyone, but you definitely leaned on the Russian stereotype—you know, the whole alcoholism thing. It's like someone mocking Zelenskyy by making jokes about his nose or ears.

He has a PhD in philosophy, so he's not an expert in international law. Using his doctorate as proof is a logical fallacy—an appeal to false authority.
I don't know why you're bringing up Arestovich; I never linked anything from him because the guy talks incessantly.

PhDs—turns out he has two, and they're even related to war studies, though I wasn't citing them for that.
You mentioned he was a regional governor, so why shouldn't his comments carry weight here? Just because he uses aggressive rhetoric during this weird, undeclared war with the G7?

On Arestovich, we agree—he's a character.

Tyler Jones6 said:The Golden Gate Bridge sits partially on internationally recognized Ukrainian territory—so when it eventually gets taken out (and I suppose it’s really just a matter of when, not if), what exactly is Putin going to do... send the army into Ukraine? 🤔

You need serious firepower to actually take down a bridge like that. This thing here, even with a 2,000lb warhead, didn't even touch the rail bridges back during the American Wars:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/AGM-130

Even in Iraq, the Americans struggled to drop enough bombs from the air to actually snap those structures.

As for HIMARS—since someone brought it up—it's not happening. The versions Ukraine is getting have maybe a 220lb warhead. Unless they somehow establish total air superiority over Crimea—which is pure fantasy—taking out that bridge is also pure fantasy.

hollowdriver13 said:Look, if we’re going to talk like this, fine. Honestly, the only real idiot here is Rogozin—and anyone else who parrots his nonsense without even bothering to fact-check it first. But hey, I guess that’s just standard Russophile behavior, isn't it? You grab some random snippet that happens to fit a specific narrative, run with it, and then act all smug about how right you were. Typical.
So, this guy—this total vodka-soaked joke—is rambling about stuff that has absolutely nothing to do with freight or transit. He’s actually talking about visa-free travel and people crossing borders, which is something he really should have a handle on given his history as a former governor of the Kaliningrad region. But honestly? Expecting any kind of actual intelligence from him is pretty much like expecting to find a party atmosphere on the Moon.
Honestly, since we're already diving down this rabbit hole, this is just another perfect example of how Russia has never truly come to terms with the collapse of the USSR.
Yeah, let's take a second to actually look back at all the nonsense they were pulling regarding that situation back then.
A US official told CNN last week that Russia has been pushing a group of new demands that will reduce the effectiveness of the agreement reached last year between Russia and the EU on the transit question. It looks like things are getting complicated again. Basically, Moscow is trying to move the goalposts on an agreement that was supposed to settle how energy moves through the region, and it’s creating a lot of friction with European Union leaders. It feels like Russia is once again testing how much they can get away with. By throwing these new requirements onto the table, they might be trying to weaken the stability of the deal we thought was solid. It’s a classic move—wait until everyone thinks the dust has settled, then pivot to grab more leverage. Honestly, it's a bit exhausting to watch this cycle repeat itself, but that seems to be the playbook lately. We'll have to see if the European Union stands its ground or if these new demands actually start to chip away at the previous progress.

A US official told CNN last week that Russia has been pushing a group of new demands that will reduce the effectiveness of the agreement reached last year between Russia and the EU on the transit question.

It’s just the classic Russian negotiation tactic: they agree to something, everyone shakes hands, papers get signed, and then right before ratification kicks in, they suddenly "remember" they want to change everything. Honestly, it sounds incredibly familiar, doesn't it? Just gives me major Minsk or Minsk 2 vibes.

Kirkilas mentioned that the Russians seem pretty hesitant about actually moving forward with the readmission treaty talks. He basically pointed out that lately, they’ve been avoiding calling these meetings "negotiations" altogether, opting for the term "consultations" instead. On top of that, they're just sending low-level officials to handle the discussions. Honestly, we've seen this playbook before—it's a classic stall tactic. To me, it really just means that there is no political decision in Moscow yet. It looks like they haven't quite figured out if they actually want to sign the treaty or if they'd rather just drag their feet and use it as leverage against Lithuania in the future.

It’s always the exact same playbook. Decades go by and the Russians just don't change. They aren't actually holding negotiations; they call them "consultations," which is just a fancy way of saying they're keeping the whole mess simmering under the surface, just waiting for the right moment to let it all blow up again in the future.

Let's keep this rolling.

The Lithuanian envoy mentioned that it’s anyone's guess why Russia seems to be pulling back on its commitments right now, but he suggested that Moscow might just be looking to squeeze a few extra concessions out of Brussels during that Russia-EU summit coming up in May. He also pointed out that these stalling tactics could be a calculated move to play to the Russian public before the parliamentary elections in December.

Kirkilas mentioned that Russia might be trying to capitalize on the friction currently splitting the European Union regarding the war in Iraq. He basically thinks Russia is looking to poke at the cracks in European unity, banking on the idea that since EU nations are preoccupied with their own issues right now, they won't be as quick to step up and stand behind Lithuanian interests.

So, looks like we’re seeing a classic attempt by Russia to sow some discord. Just their usual playbook, really.

Kirkilas alleged that Russia, by stalling on the treaty talks, is attempting to sabotage Lithuania's aims of joining the Schengen agreement. Russian officials—at least those in the lower ranks— I honestly still haven't quite wrapped my head around the whole situation with Lithuania joining the EU and NATO. It’s one of those things that just sticks in the back of my mind. The envoy mentioned it.

I mean, honestly, who would’ve thought? It turns out the Russians just haven't quite come to terms with losing their old Soviet empire... nope, they're total imperialists, and apparently, they're never going to let it go!

And here comes the coup de grace

"Even though it’s been over a decade since the USSR collapsed, Russia hasn't actually ratified a single border treaty with any of the former republics. It’s pretty clear they only view the independence of these new nations as a temporary thing. By stalling on these border agreements, they’re basically keeping the door wide open to launch an invasion under the guise of a tiny territorial dispute," Radzvilas said.

Just translating the whole thing so nobody gets lost in translation...

"Even though it’s been more than 10 years since the collapse of the USSR, there isn't a single former Soviet republic with which Russia has ratified a border treaty. There is no doubt that this shows Russia views the independence of the former Soviet republics as a temporary state. By refusing to ratify border agreements, they leave themselves the opportunity to start an aggression against those countries over some minor territorial dispute."

If you didn't know better, you'd think we were talking about Ukraine instead of Lithuania and stuff that happened decades ago... the only real difference is that Lithuania was already under the NATO umbrella back then. The total losers who dared to push back even slightly couldn't do a damn thing. Now, they figured the West was too distracted and weakened by the fallout from COVID to stop them, thinking they could just slide this through while Ukraine waits with open arms to welcome them as "liberators."
Literally the textbook definition of "a leopard never changes its spots."

Alright, give us a little more Rogozin—go ahead and bury yourself again with that bag of bad jokes and vodka.

The 2002 Agreement:

http://en.kremlin.ru/supplement/3537
1. The parties acknowledge the unique situation of the Kaliningrad Region as part of the Russian Federation but separated from the rest of the Federation by other states. With the aim of further developing the strategic partnership between EU and Russia, the parties therefore agree to make a special effort to accommodate the concerns on both sides related to the future transit of persons and goods between the Kaliningrad Region and other parts of Russia, and to intensify their cooperation to promote the social and economic development of the region as a whole.

It’s not super detailed—maybe they ironed things out in a later deal—but it clearly states that each side will 'accommodate the concerns' of the other regarding the transit of people and goods. Apparently, that’s what they’ve been doing all these years. Now, suddenly after some decree, that's out the window.

Well, if you're fine with blockades, I guess you wouldn't have minded if Canada had decided to shut down all transit through Neum a few years ago, before they built that highway? You could have just taken a ferry, no big deal.🙂

Anyway, this is a massive aggressive move by Lithuania (whose government keeps proving how immature they are) and the EU if they actually advised this—not surprisingly, the reaction from Russia is harsh. The logic is that they're preoccupied with Ukraine, and luckily, Kaliningrad can be supplied by sea or air. Just like the Berlin blockade, really; war will likely be avoided.

As for Rogozin, I don't know why you're so obsessed with the head of Roscosmos, acting like you're living in some bubble where everything Russian is automatically a bag of salty jokes.
Try Arestovych instead—that guy acts like he's got five PhDs when he really only has one, unlike Rogozin.☕

hollowdriver13 said:Dmitry Rogozin😂

At the end of the day, they got exactly what they asked for. They were the ones who first suggested pulling back the recognition of sovereignty, so now even the flow of goods doesn't count for much.
Even though Kyiv totally played them—by pulling that document about Prince Volodymyr founding Moscow, which technically means Moscow doesn't even exist as an independent city anymore—they still fell for the trolls hook, line, and sinker.☕

Don't try to play people for fools—if you actually think the claim in that link is wrong, just explain why.

Anyway, they got what they wanted. They were the first ones to say they'd pull their recognition of statehood, and now even the cargo isn't flowing.

They definitely haven't pulled that recognition—hardly anyone would walk away from that deal now, regardless of this.
Maybe someone said it, but personally, I doubt it's an official stance.

urbanotter said:I honestly don't see why he would need to lie when you seem to be the one doing all the fabricating.

I truly believe that Lithuania has indeed blocked the rail transit of goods subject to sanctions moving toward the Kaliningrad region.

But Putin isn't twisting the truth or lying the way you are; if you look at the data, Russia saw a massive surge in energy export revenues during the first 100 days of the conflict, and GDP figures are a much more reliable metric than whatever random nonsense is being posted on Twitter.

Russia earned massive profits from oil and gas during the first 100 days of the war.

https://seebiz.eu/energetika/rusija-...na-rata/277181

It’s honestly quite sad to watch how some people refuse to face the facts, preferring instead to live in their own delusions, constantly leaning on falsehoods and twisting every situation just to validate what they already want to believe.

It looks like Lithuania's recognition of Russian sovereignty essentially guaranteed they'd allow the free flow of people and goods between Kaliningrad and the rest of Russia:
https://twitter.com/spriteer_774400/...X1ttu3MQAvLAZw

The politicians over there act like toddlers—we saw that clearly with those unprovoked spats with China.
Plus, they can't really do much damage to Kaliningrad anyway, since cargo will just head out by sea through that narrow corridor in international waters between Finland and Estonia—nobody has the right to shut that down.