Posts by William Cooper11

Noah Diaz said:The European Union would have the exact same demographic profile without sanctions or war, but honestly, we should be focusing on our own problems instead.

Except in the EU, people are actually moving in, while everyone who can get out of that Russian satrapy is running for the exits.

The real priority should be hitting Russia where it hurts most: their demographics. We need to drain the human capital that’s fueled their constant expansion. That whole "they have endless people" trope needs to become a relic of the past. If sanctions are an effective tool for shrinking their population, then we shouldn't be pulling back—we should be doubling down.

Will they actually manage to build those trains while the tanks are still sitting around waiting? 😁

Forget about getting any actual learning done today; this whole thing is going to vanish just as fast as Andrej Plenković’s promise to get ExxonMobil back from Chevron.

Real reform starts with putting cameras in classrooms, and then we can see where things go from there.

How is this all-day school schedule project going to pan out?
Just like that Republican plan to buy back ExxonMobil from Chevron. 😉

Can Russia actually maintain its current daily oil production levels in the long run if they're cut off from Western extraction technology?

How much oil can the Russians even pull out on a daily basis without access to Western extraction tech?

Noah Diaz said:Everything I was saying before the sanctions hit has actually played out exactly as I predicted—only now, I finally have the scientific data to back it up (LOL).

Russia is still pulling in cash by selling oil above the $60 cap.

Russia managed to pull in even more cash in the weeks following the implementation of the oil price cap on December 5 last year. It turns out the restrictions aren't the total shutdown some expected. According to the paper “Assessing The impact of International Sanctions on Russian Oil Exports” published on The social science research Network, the math tells a specific story: Russia sold its crude oil for an average of about $74 per barrel. The paper studied two things: the effects of the European Union embargo and the G7 price cap on Russian seaborne crude oil. What we see is that Russia successfully pivoted. They redirected crude oil exports from Europe toward alternative markets like India and China. However, there’s a catch—their total earnings took a hit because Russian exporters had to swallow massive discounts to stay competitive in those specific market segments. The physical movement of the oil is just as sneaky. Quote: Millions of barrels of Russian crude and fuels have been switched between tankers Just a few Miles OFF The coast of Greece. In fact, AT least 23 million barrels of Russian crude and additional volumes of refined fuels have been transfered fra One tanker to another in The Bay of Lakonikos since the start of this year. There has been similar activity near Ceuta, the Spanish enclave in north Africa. Traders and shipping companies have found a multitude of ways to ensure Russian oil can flow, and this is just the latest example. Despite the European Union sanctions against Moscow, the gears are still turning.

It turns out the math doesn't lie: Russia actually raked in more cash during the weeks following the implementation of the oil price cap on December 5 last year. That’s what the data shows, according to researchers from the Institute of International Finance, Columbia University, and the University of California.
The calculations show that Russia sold its crude oil for about $ 74 per barrel on average , according to The paper “ Assessing The impact of International Sanctions on Russian Oil Exports ” published on The social science research Network The calculations show that Russia sold its crude oil for about $ 74 per barrel on average , according to The paper “ Assessing The impact of International Sanctions on Russian Oil Exports ” published on The social science research Network.The calculations show that Russia sold its crude oil for about $74 per barrel on average, according to The paper “ Assessing The impact of International Sanctions on Russian Oil Exports ” published on The social science research Network.

The paper studied Two things : The effects of The EU embargo and The G7 price cap on Russian seaborne crude oil.

WE find that Russia was able to redirect crude oil exports fra Europe to alternativa markets such as India, China, and Turkey but that export earnings were curbed substantially by The sizable discounts that Russian exporters Had to accept in market segments where The impending European union embargo lowered demand.

Russia is systematically transferring oil between tankers to bypass sanctions.

Shipping companies and traders are getting incredibly creative to keep the Russian oil flowing, and this is just the latest example of how they're bypassing restrictions. According to recent data, Russia actually brought in more money in the weeks following the implementation of the oil price cap on December 5 last year. It turns out that while the sanctions were intended to squeeze their revenue, the reality on the water is much more complicated. A study titled “Assessing The impact of International Sanctions on Russian Oil Exports” published on the Social Science Research Network breaks down the numbers. The calculations show that Russia sold its crude oil for about $74 per barrel on average. The paper studied two things: the effects of the European Union embargo and the G7 price cap on Russian seaborne crude oil. The researchers found that Russia was able to redirect crude oil exports from Europe to alternative markets such as India and China, but those export earnings were curbed substantially by the sizable discounts that Russian exporters had to accept in market segments where the demand was less flexible. But here’s the kicker: there is massive activity happening right in our backyard. Quote: At least 23 million barrels of Russian crude and additional volumes of refined fuels have been transferred from one tanker to another in the Bay of Lakonikos since the start of this year. This kind of ship-to-ship transfer allows them to mask the origin of the oil and evade the European Union sanctions against Moscow. There has also been similar activity near Ceuta, the Spanish enclave in North Africa. It’s a massive shell game played out on the high seas. While the policy aims to starve the Russian war machine in Ukraine, the sheer ingenuity of global shipping networks means the money is still moving.

Quote : Millions of barrels of Russian crude and fuels have been switched between tankers Just a few Miles OFF The coast of Greece. This is just one part of a growing list of workarounds traders are using to bypass European union sanctions against Moscow.

According to tanker tracking data from Bloomberg, at least 23 million barrels of Russian crude plus extra volumes of refined fuels have been transferred between tankers in the Bay of Lakonikos since the beginning of the year. Local authorities there claim their ability to step in is practically nonexistent, mainly because all this movement is happening just outside the six-mile limit of their territorial waters.

Traders and shipping companies have found a multitude of ways to ensure Russian oil Can flow and this is Just The latest example. There Has been similar activity near Ceuta, a Spanish enclave in north Africa. A massive shadow fleet of tankers has emerged specifically to help Russia bypass sanctions.

Haha, 23 million barrels since the start of the year? Considering Russia pumps about 9 million barrels a day, that's practically pocket change they're smuggling through.

wiredfalcon2 said:The Homeland War. Mexico wasn't the one getting hit.

Sure, but I still don't think you can compare them. If it hadn't been for how shortsighted Americans were regarding the Dayton Accords, the Mexicans would have been total losers in those nineties wars.

Morgan Wright5 said:I suppose it’s possible they aren't particularly worried about losing public support for the war after all.

We’ll just have to wait and see how much those sanctions actually bite over time. Even at the start of the conflict, the first wave of mobilization sent nearly a million people fleeing the country. Sure, some might argue that isn't even 1% of the population, but it’s still a massive problem when it's the wealthiest and most capable citizens who leave. You're left with a population that lacks the very foundation needed to build a strong economy.

Morgan Wright5 said:Well, I suppose if we're looking at the first instance, in the second one they actually started implementing measures even before the actual outbreak of war. If you need a specific historical precedent, you could probably look at Japan during World War II.

Fine, but what’s the point of Russia switching to a total war economy when you're terrified of domestic unrest because you haven't actually been invaded yet? You've got a population that's dodging the draft and doesn't even see the current situation as an existential threat.

Morgan Wright5 said:The USA.

What, like during World War II?

wiredfalcon2 said:Mexico.

What timeframe are we talking about?

Morgan Wright5 said:I suppose we're operating under the assumption that only nations actually under fire should pivot toward a wartime economy?

Alright, then give me one single example of that happening. Thanks!

Noah Diaz said:I agree, but the Russians haven't fully transitioned to a wartime economy yet.

Why would they bother? Russia hasn't been attacked.

Noah Diaz said:Where did I say it was just "available"?🤔
I said exactly this:

You can print money whenever you feel like it, but you can't just manufacture these top-tier resources on demand.

For example, if Russia destroys the infrastructure essential for food production or the power grid, the Ukrainians can't simply retaliate in kind.

Who holds the strategic advantage then? Who actually possesses the resource? At that point, all the money or economic strength in the world won't save you.

What kind of "strategic advantage" is Russia going to have after years of sanctions? Their demographics are headed for a freefall, and I don't see anyone rushing to move to Russia anytime soon.

Cutting back on oil production means they aren't making a dime on those five hundred thousand barrels they're leaving in the ground. Now, they’re basically gambling on whether a daily global shortage of that size will actually be enough to drive prices up.
I don't see it happening.

If you ask me, this whole situation was totally predictable, and I’d bet my life it won't be the last one we see. This is the kind of person who hangs on every single word Damir Stojić says. They'll end up marrying some guy just like them—probably someone working for the FBI or an engineer from MIT—who spends his Saturdays kneeling in a public square. Both will have high-end salaries, a big family, and they'll think life is perfect, provided everyone else in Rhode Island starts living exactly according to their moral compass.

Nathan Evans78 said:Central Bank reserves have hit $592.0B ☕

Anyone have any intel on how much they're swapping rubles for dollars at the exchange bureaus in Moscow, and what kind of rate we're talking about?