Posts by William Cooper11

gentleviper62 said:What does it actually mean when we say sanctions are working? Will the standard of living in Russia plummet? Absolutely. But will they pull back from the war or see their country fall apart? Not a chance.

Quitting a war and collapsing as a nation aren't the same thing. Nobody's actually asking for Russia to disintegrate, even if that would be the best outcome for any sane person in the world.
As for whether they'll back down from the fight? We'll see. They pulled out of Afghanistan. This wouldn't be their first time walking away. 😁

Nancy Gomez26 said:

Carl Lee27 As stated by:
It seems we are starting from nothing. Or perhaps, it is simply the beginning of a void. With this article... Building on the previous point, and specifically regarding that report from Yale, here is my take. To put it bluntly: sanctions are working. Despite the desperate lies and the frantic attempts by the Kremlin to mask the reality, certain truths remain impossible to ignore:
Oil is being offloaded at a massive discount.
Oil revenues were always a tighter squeeze for Russia than they were for the Arabs, making their break-even point sit somewhere around $42 to $44. Now, once you factor in the discounts, a massive chunk of those Russian fields is staring down the barrel of being completely unprofitable.
Then there is the logistical nightmare of actually getting the oil to its destination—in this case, India. It’s yet another hurdle that eats away at what little margin is left.
The math is simple, if bleak. Russia's energy exports are currently bringing in more revenue than they were before the war, yet that figure is still effectively halved compared to their previous highs. This isn't a sustainable peak; it’s a temporary plateau. We are looking at a steady decline. Without access to Western technology, their production capacity will inevitably crater. When you factor in the tightening grip of sanctions and the broader downward pressure on global oil prices, the trajectory becomes clear. The decline is inevitable.
We’ve already touched on the gas situation in this thread. Let’s be realistic: there is simply no way for Russia to reroute 180 to 200 billion cubic meters of annual supply away from Europe. It just doesn't work. The pipeline infrastructure heading toward China is entirely disconnected from the networks serving the West. Even if they ever managed to link them, it would happen solely at China's behest. Russia lacks both the capital to fund such a massive undertaking and the technical capacity to actually build it. The Chinese, unlike their counterparts in Moscow, seem to possess a much clearer grasp of the math; they are prioritizing trade with the West, which dwarfs their dealings with Russia by a factor of fifteen or twenty.
Black market currency trading is rampant—something certain people in this group will undoubtedly recognize. In those circles, if you want to get your hands on dollars, you’re looking at a 100% premium over the official exchange rate. It's a steep price for access.
Entire economic sectors have essentially ceased to exist. All that remains is the sudden, aggressive rise of empty rhetoric regarding self-sufficiency.

At the end of the day, Russia will follow the exact same trajectory as every other nation that has faced Western sanctions—meaning they’ll be systematically cut off from global flows. And I'm not just talking about economics. History shows us that no country has ever truly won a head-to-head confrontation with the West. Russia won't be the exception to that rule either.

The irony is quite striking. If the Russian Federation hadn't become so deeply entwined with the West, these sanctions wouldn't sting nearly as much. They would be far easier to stomach. Had they simply stuck to manufacturing outdated relics like old Chevys or obsolete cargo planes, they might have actually maintained some semblance of an independent industrial base. Of course, keeping those production lines running made little sense in the long run; the tech was ancient. So, they pivoted toward modernization. But in doing so, they integrated themselves into the global supply chain and created a massive dependency. Once you realize how vulnerable that makes you, you don't go launching reckless "special operations."

You've got a point, but when someone like Dugin is busy filling heads with fantasies about restoring the Russian Empire and how "true" Orthodoxy needs to crush the morally bankrupt West, nobody is thinking about spare parts for Aeroflot's Airbus fleet. 😁

Melissa Rivera5 said:So, I guess you guys are still crying about the Storm because you lost, rather than admitting the territory was basically handed over on a silver platter.

If I recall correctly, @James Phillips92 is a defender from El Paso, so I highly doubt he's out here mourning the Storm.

wanderingmaker3

Nicole James said:Wait, didn't the Russians pull people straight out of prison for this?

Yeah. They’re already offering mercenaries $6,000 a month because they're running dangerously low on cannon fodder.

And who exactly is going to be left to feel the heat from those HIMARS?😁

hollowdriver13 said:Here we go again. That retired spokesperson of Zakharov’s is back at it with the threats, basically telling the Finns they're gonna be in trouble if they stop handing out visas to Russians.

https://mobile.twitter.com/RussianEm...48115609182208

She'd have a better time explaining why Russians are fleeing Russia in the first place. 😁

rowdytiger13 said:Shoigu claims he’s going to build a new Soviet Union—massive and powerful.

https://twitter.com/XSovietNews/stat...C46eyw6osrAAAA

These people are dangerous imperialists.

Great. Now Americans get another chance to pick a new Reagan and take down the USSR all over again. 👍

With data looking like this, I highly doubt their annual GDP drop will be anything less than 10%.

I just saw some data suggesting that running this war is costing Russia about $500 million every single day.

Nicole James said:What are your thoughts on the likelihood of the Chechens turning against Russia and declaring independence once again? It seems to me that any separatist movement is bound to face this kind of reckoning eventually, perhaps even within the century.

All it takes is for everyone with separatist ambitions to start hitting the representatives of the Russian repressive apparatus—you know, the military, the police, the FBI, the National Guard. If they do that, the Russians will be forced to divert troops just to maintain order in those regions.
It doesn't even require an all-out revolt against official Moscow.

Joshua Myers432 said:Who cares about the Russians? Seriously. You think freezing in your own apartment is going to stop them?🙄

If you're going to pull the trigger, aim at the enemy instead of shooting yourself in the foot.🕺

Alright, smart guy, why don't you tell me what the Russians will actually do with all that gas if they just shut it off?

Jacob Gonzalez2 said:The two of you will probably end up bickering amongst yourselves while you're busy posturing with those propaganda pamphlets. Honestly, what a bunch of Turks... I can hardly believe it...

I’m just waiting for you to claim the Ukrainians are killing themselves and blowing up their own cities. You forgot that part—can't have complete Kremlin propaganda without it.

If the price for my freezing this winter is keeping the Russians warm with HIMARS, then fine. I'll take that deal.

I’m a big believer in inverse proportionality here. If they decide to throttle our gas supply, we respond by ramping up our shipments of HIMARS missiles to them. 👍

Terry Green3 said:And there lies the catch. Why should an Indian live like an Indian, a Chinese person live like a Chinese person, or an African live like an African just so an American can live like an American and a European can live like a European?
In the end, everyone will just dance to whatever tune the USA, Canada, Australia, the UK, and the EU decide to play.

You've got a point, partially. But the other half of this mess is the population explosion in India, China, various African nations, and large parts of Asia.
I can't actually say what I really think about that without getting banned.

Can we please just stop comparing the USA to modern-day Russia already?
Today's Russia is nothing more than a pale imitation of the old USA.

placidtiger142 said:I hear you, man, but honestly, now is not the time or the place for that smiley face. A nasty reality check is coming for all of us.

The number of happy little smileys on the internet is going to tank by 90% if this doesn't get fixed immediately.

And when I say immediately, I mean within the next few weeks at the latest.

Sent from my iPhone 13 using Reddit

The solution is simple. Kick the Russians out of Ukraine by force, then hit them with sanctions until they start paying up for the war damages.

Noah Diaz said:It seems like we have a constant stream of vague cloud-dwellers floating around here:

They claim that after Ukraine, we’re next on the list—that the Baltic states and Poland are just waiting to become Putin's next victims.

What exactly is the issue? Is there a lack of faith in Article 5, or do you just not believe in NATO's nuclear deterrence doctrine? 😵

No, it's just that we don't want things to get to that point in the first place. You've got to crush the snake while it's still small.

dustyowl29 said:It doesn't really matter—our economy is unfortunately way too dependent on Russian energy sources.

But in Europe, it’s not just the Germans, Frenchmen, and Italians asking the questions. People in Poland, the Czech Republic, Finland, and the Baltics already know they're next on the list if Putin isn't defeated. Fortunately, the Americans and Brits feel the exact same way.

Henry Sullivan4 said:My gut tells me that things in Ukraine will reach a standstill by winter and move toward negotiations, where Vladimir Putin can claim a victory by using his usual "liberating and protecting holy Russian land-known currency" rhetoric, and our Western leaders will likely just accept it wholeheartedly, regardless of the tragic loss of Ukrainian lives, though maybe I'm being too cynical here.🕺

So, let's say they take the Donbas. What's the endgame there? They’ll be left staring at a heavily armed Ukraine sitting right on the border of their new "Novorossiya" territory—a country capable of raining missiles and artillery fire deep into the Donbas whenever they feel like it. On top of that, they’ll face a much longer border facing NATO, plenty of domestic unrest because they failed to seize Kyiv, and they'll lose access to a massive chunk of the European energy market for good.