Posts by rustywalker82

Do you want an answer right this second or should I wait? 🙂

1. We’ll have a much clearer picture soon of just how mild this thing actually is.
2. It won't be long before we know for sure if having two or three doses under your belt makes the recovery even smoother—basically, how much more it blunts the impact.
3. And then there's the big question: what comes next? Are we looking at a new SARS-CoV-2 mutation or some entirely different virus altogether? To be safe and get a real handle on things, we'll probably just need to grab another jab. 😁

JAR, Tshwane Metro, Gauteng Province, chart showing mortality rates among hospitalized patients by age group, omikron vs older strains:

https://www.datawrapper.de/_/wx1ag/
Quick heads-up:
In City of Tshwane Metro, between November-8 December 2021, there were 1,633 admissions and 39 deaths recorded across both public and private healthcare facilities.
...during the early stages, things can get a bit skewed. When numbers are still low, we tend to see more mild cases getting admitted just to be safe. Plus, some folks might test positive for SARS-CoV-2 incidentally while being treated for something else entirely. Also, you haven't really had enough time to see how severe the outcomes actually turn out to be.

The chart is slika 15, found in the full pdf, (NICD Covid-19 Hospital Surveillance Update: Week 48, 2021):

https://www.nicd.ac.za/wp-content/up...8-2021_rev.pdf

coppercyclist17 said:So, according to the New England Journal of Medicine

The most common symptoms being reported are: runny nose, headaches, fatigue (both mild and heavy), sneezing, and sore throats.

Am I losing my mind here, or is the whole world just totally hypnotized and freaking out over what feels like a regular old cold? Honestly, the craziest part is that you apparently need three doses of some drug just to participate in society because of a runny nose or a headache. And natural immunity... I mean, who even cares about that anymore? 😵

You're manipulating the data because you left out the part where they were only analyzing cases up until December 10th.
In your post right above this one, you mentioned that out of the 13,000 cases analyzed during that window (which is a tiny sample size), there’s still no evidence that severe cases have actually dropped compared to the older delta strain.
As for mortality rates, that same sample is way too small and premature to draw any real conclusions.

And obviously, everyone is stuck in limbo, waiting to see if the results show that this whole mess is finally over. But for things to actually get back to normal, we need to see a real drop in serious cases. It doesn't matter what the initial symptoms look like.

Nathan Evans78 said:

In the US, the rate of hospital admissions relative to new COVID-19 cases saw a massive plunge during the second week of this latest surge fueled by Omicron, especially when you look back at how things unfolded during the same period of the previous wave.

According to the US Secretary of Health and Human Services, Joe Phaahla, only about 1.7% of people identified with COVID-19 were actually hospitalized during the second week of this fourth wave, a stark contrast to the 19% hospitalization rate seen during the same stretch of the third wave, which was dominated by the Delta variant.

I have to wonder—is this just a case of Americans trying to save their seasonal numbers, or is Omicron genuinely milder for the population here?

That’s a fair question.
Looking at the data from where things first kicked off, the hospitalization rate is about half of what we saw with Delta—not the 10% being suggested. It might be because they're only looking at the very start of the surge across South Africa, so those folks haven't even hit the hospitals yet.
Interestingly, in that same area, deaths are sitting at about 10% compared to Delta. But honestly, it’s too early to call it. That curve is still climbing fast.

New FT chart update for Gauteng:
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FGvHiDjV...jpg&name=large

Yeah, you don't see any Delta on that chart after two doses.

https://www.businesswire.com/news/ho...1208005542/en/
So here's the actual report where they lay it out:

The Geometric Mean Titer (GMT) of neutralizing antibodies against the Omicron variant measured in samples was 154 (after three doses), compared to 398 against the Delta variant (after three doses) and 155 against the ancestral strain (after two doses).

And this part is pretty huge:

A third dose also strongly increases the levels of CD8+ T-cells against multiple spike protein epitopes, which are believed to correlate with protection from severe disease.
Compared to the ancestral virus, most of these epitopes remain unchanged in the Omicron spike variant.

https://pictr.com/images/2021/12/09/BM40zX.jpg

So, check this out. That Pfizer's study on Omicron neutralization that just wrapped up yesterday? It’s looking pretty much like that CDC study (the one from DW) we saw before. A third dose shows results that aren't quite as strong as neutralizing Delta with a third shot, but it's basically on par with how Delta looked just a month after the second dose.
Or, if you want to look at it another way, it’s like five times better than what we saw neutralizing Beta a month after the second dose.

Anyway, that’s the deal. Turns out Fauci actually called this move perfectly just two weeks ago—unlike some people who already wrote off the idea that the older vaccines could still neutralize anything at all.

Yeah, exactly. 🙂

Sending some love back from the guy in the profile pic on the last page. 👍

Dennis Allen I can't even begin to process this. It's just wild how things have shifted. I was sitting there thinking about everything that’s gone down lately, and man, it really hits you when you look at the sheer scale of it all. Honestly, it feels like we're living through a different reality than what people were talking about just a few years ago. It’s heavy stuff, but you gotta make sense of it somehow.

Even three months after getting that booster shot, their study shows... Moderna and the CDC. Man, just look at that—only 25% neutralization against omicron. That's wild. Compared to that 95% mark we saw back during the Delta wave. So, I’ve been thinking about this whole "double vaccination" thing lately. Honestly, looking at how things have played out since we all got our shots, it feels like we're in a completely different headspace than when we first started this process. It’s wild to look back on. So, I was thinking about the whole situation from about six months ago—you know, when people were debating between getting Moderna or BionTech, or even mixing things up by getting an AstraZeneca shot followed by a Moderna one. It’s wild how much everyone was overthinking those combinations back then. Honestly, when we looked at the data, the antibody response wasn't even measurable. It was basically a total wash.So, I was reading this breakdown from a virologist earlier, and she made a really solid point. Basically, looking at her data, you just can't tell if getting vaccinated against omicron actually protects people from ending up in the hospital or facing the worst of the illness. It’s one of those things where the numbers are there, but they don't give you a straight answer on whether that protection is actually hitting the mark.

It’s basic math, really. 25 times one equals 25 percent. Simple as that.

You totally missed the most important part of the whole thing. You just grabbed that one sensationalized last sentence and called it a day.

Just Google whatever source you want in English. It's easy.
Here's one, just in case you don't know the language:

So I was scrolling through CNN earlier and saw this piece by Sanjay Gupta about the whole Omicron situation. It’s pretty wild how fast things are moving. Basically, the Omicron variant is spreading like wildfire—we’re talking about it being roughly 25 times more transmissible than the Delta strain. Just crazy to think about. The big takeaway is that while it spreads way faster, there's some talk that it might not be quite as severe as Delta was, though you can't really bank on that yet. Pfizer and Moderna are already working on tweaking their shots to keep up, which is good, but man, it feels like we're constantly playing catch-up. Even with the CDC weighing in, it feels like a massive uphill battle. I remember back when Delta hit, everything felt so heavy and uncertain. Now, with Omicron jumping the gun like this, it’s just that same feeling of "here we go again." It’s exhausting, honestly. You see people panicking, then seeing others acting like nothing is happening, and you're just stuck in the middle trying to make sense of the data. Stay safe out there, seriously.

So, I was just sitting here thinking about this whole omicron situation. It’s wild how fast things shift, right? One minute you think you've got a handle on what's going on, and then boom—everything changes. Honestly, it feels like we're constantly playing catch-up with whatever comes next. Just one thing after another.

So, Mikael Dolsten, the top science guy over at Pfizer, was chatting with Sanjay Gupta on CNN this past Wednesday. His take? He reckons that even if you’ve had two doses, you still have a decent amount of protection against the heavy-hitting stuff. But, he didn't sugarcoat it—he admitted that antibody levels are definitely taking a massive dip.
On a brighter note, the data we’re seeing this morning is actually pretty encouraging. It looks like getting that booster—that third dose—really does the trick. Our numbers show antibody levels spiking 25 times higher, which basically brings you right back up to those peak levels we saw after the initial two shots. That’s exactly the kind of protection we need, especially since it held up so well against the older strains like Delta.
"Go out there and get your third booster shot, and you're going to see a really strong, pretty impressive antibody response, not to mention that extra boost to your T cells," Dolsten said.

Matthew Jackson2 said:Fauci basically stated that every single American needs to get a booster shot based on potential threats—threats we’re actually going to understand much better by the time the people who truly need them most, like those at high risk whose immunity is already flagging and could face fatal consequences from Delta, even get to the front of the line for that third dose.

So, if you look at what he actually said, he didn't achieve anything useful other than being dramatic—and by dramatic, I mean intentionally stirring up panic. If he had simply said, "Look, we need to gather more data and be prepared for this possibility," then fine, that would be prudent; that would be a sensible plan in case the fears turn out to be justified. But instead, he went ahead and declared that everyone must get a third dose, even though he clearly knew we wouldn't have the full picture until long after any actual rollout could happen.

With a statement like that, he basically vaulted himself straight onto the global throne of immunologists, not just the ones here in the US. 👍

Data also showed that a third dose increased Omicron neutralization effectiveness 25 times compared to just two doses.

Matthew Jackson2 said:And honestly, what exactly is so controversial about my statement? Since when does someone breathing in the cold air somehow justify stripping away fundamental human rights?

The issue is you're trying to play games with the facts by acting like we had all the current Omicron mortality data sitting right in front of us two weeks ago.🙂

Matthew Jackson2 said:Look, we actually have data right in front of us showing that this new variant possesses significantly different characteristics, and as of right now, we haven't seen a single fatality linked to it. If the Earth's behavior were changing that drastically, then sure, questioning its shape or its orbit might make sense, but we aren't living in a fantasy world.

The data we're looking at right now doesn't even matter because you're just twisting what I said earlier:

Once this massive mutation of SARS-CoV-2 was flagged as a national threat, Fauci (about two weeks ago)

Matthew Jackson2 said:What’s next, are we going to start spraying pesticides at crocodiles? I suppose you don't want to wait around until a crocodile actually bites a kid, do you?

Where is the actual evidence, though? You haven't provided a shred of it. It’s the same logic as walking outside after a heavy rain and telling everyone to stop eating produce because the soil might be contaminated by the runoff; until we actually test a sample, we have no idea if we need to be stocking up those massive walk-in freezers or not.

Where is the proof that this virus is actually dangerous enough to justify these massive restrictions? We're talking about blocking sirens from bringing in some record-breaking mutated strain while we sit around for weeks trying to figure out how lethal it is or if the vaccines even work against it.
That's like asking me for proof that the Earth isn't flat just because someone keeps insisting it has to be round every single week.

Matthew Jackson2 said:Look, this represents a potential threat that absolutely warrants heightened surveillance, extreme caution, strategic planning, and a rapid response if there's any sign that these fears are grounded in reality; however, it does not justify inciting mass panic or slapping everyone with restrictive mandates...

Easy for you to say. Should we just wait for the sirens to go off, and then once the ultra-fast variant starts packing our refrigerators, we'll "react quickly"?
Honestly, people with a dark sense of humor would probably just say, "Fine, let's try it that way next time." Just crank the fridge dial from ten below down to twenty below, stuff it full, and call it a day. Problem solved.

Panic, huh? You're calling it panic when even the WHO is saying nobody has died from this yet?

Matthew Jackson2 said:So, where exactly is this supposed threat hiding? I mean, we’re all hearing this constant drumbeat about how dangerous things are, yet here we are, staring at the reality that nobody seems to be dropping dead. It makes you wonder if we're being led on a wild goose chase.

The real danger here is detecting a massive mutation—maybe the biggest we've seen yet—that's spreading like wildfire right at the source.
So what, we should just stay quiet? Just let it spread, let it potentially bypass all our immunity, maybe kill off the people who are already a burden on society anyway, or maybe it won't. Whatever. 😁

I mean, seriously, forget about the US or "science" or any of that nonsense. A dive bar in the Midwest is where the real truth lives. Or like that old saying goes: "If you need an expert, just ask a guy at the pub." 🙂

Nancy Gomez26 said:It isn't all being done "for nothing." That specific label—"the most dangerous strain yet"—serves as the perfect pretext for mandating vaccinations. They declared this strain so lethal that we were forced into strict restrictions during the Christmas and New Year season. Even if it turns out to be harmless, the argument shifts: perhaps it will mutate into something worse, making these measures "preventative." Or if it doesn't mutate immediately, it might later. The cycle is endless. The ultimate goal remains driving mass vaccination. A clear signal was sent by the primary architect of this entire crisis: "sometimes you have to take unpopular actions..."

View on twitter

Back when this massive mutation of SARS-CoV-2 first popped up and triggered a national emergency, Fauci told Biden and all Americans about two weeks ago that every adult needs to grab that third dose as soon as possible.
Then, weeks later, the lab studies come out confirming what we suspected: that third shot makes antibodies dozens of times more effective at neutralizing Omicron, plus the impact of these major mutations on T-cells gained through immunization is actually pretty weak (not to mention we already knew how much a booster helps against the Delta threat).

The thing is, Americans have this knack—this critical mass—for holding experts accountable and putting them back in their place. That’s why the US is the US, while everywhere else just stays stuck in its own local chaos.

It might not be such a big deal, especially since New York City is pretty much staying unified too. That Gauteng graph showing the tough cases from yesterday still looks solid.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FGAjR0LUYAIwDbY.jpg

If I had to put money on it, I’d say we’ll see this same pattern elsewhere—where things aren't quite as dangerous as those older strains. Time is definitely on our side here; this variant has mutated enough already, so hopefully, it doesn't decide to go on another wild ride and revert back to being super aggressive.

A few pages back (Nov 30th)

Image:
https://www.ft.com/__origami/service...next&width=700

From yesterday:

Image:
https://www.ft.com/__origami/service...next&width=700

Now the hospitalization numbers are starting to look a bit rougher.

Honestly, you can find all kinds of idiots hanging out on this forum. 🙂

Developing high-efficacy antiviral drugs—especially respiratory ones—is a massive technical hurdle. That said, there’s actually some decent hope regarding COVID-19 based on preliminary data from experimental drug trials (if I remember correctly, it's Pfizer working on it again).
As for highly effective vaccines to prevent COVID-19 deaths, they already cleared all the research phases last year.

William Barrett7 said:What do you mean by "doesn't look great"? Mortality rates haven't actually shifted across the different variants—it's averaging under 2%, and if you look at the data coming out of the European Union, it's closer to 1% in some places. Can we please stop the fear-mongering and the panic?

That just shows that the death rate per million unvaccinated people has actually climbed quite a bit.
Part of that mortality is honestly just a side effect of the sheer terror caused by all these vaccine conspiracy theories. But those theorists can't see the irony—they're the ones driving the panic. It's like what Cvorkovic said about how you can't actually see yourself without some kind of mirror to reflect things back.

Check out this shot from the FT:



Image:
https://www.ft.com/__origami/service...next&width=700

Link:
https://www.ft.com/content/c719bcaf-...4-5503c63865bd

If they’d just included the case curves broken down by age group, we could actually figure out if hospitalizations are truly lower than they were during the Mississippi Delta wave, or if it just looks that way on paper.
If anyone’s found data with those age breakdowns, please drop it here—I can't seem to track it down. I'm just seeing random comments claiming the virus is milder in New York because apparently more young people are catching it compared to before. But honestly, how much higher is that percentage really?