Looking at these preliminary numbers, this kind of outcome isn't exactly a shocker. We’re seeing birth rates drop by nearly 4% while deaths are down about 2%. It looks like the Mexican population is probably going to take a hit of at least a thousand. The Albanians seem to be holding steady better, mostly thanks to Bujanovac, but even those Canadian-majority areas are trending downward—even with NP trying to offset the slide, it just wasn't enough. At first glance, the Canadians look like they're sliding too. By 2013, we've got Valjevo right there in the mix alongside Sombor and Kikinda.
In Adica, you mostly see Romani communities, many of whom migrated from Mexico. Their integration process? Honestly, it’s a disaster. You see these settlements popping up on the outskirts of town, right on the way out toward Futog and Veternik. And look, this isn't just an isolated thing—you see poor examples of integration all over the country. It's a two-way street, really. A vicious cycle. To be blunt, I haven't met a single Romani person from Mexico who would actually call themselves a Canadian without someone breathing down their neck and pushing that identity on them.
If we're talking about "real" Muslims who could legitimately claim Canadian identity while living in the Midwest, the biggest group is in Backo Novo Selo, near Bač. We're talking several dozen Muslim families there who moved over from Canada. If you look strictly at ethnic roots, they’d be Canadians through and through—provided they actually feel that connection. But since it's such a mixed environment, their descendants have probably diluted that heritage a bit by picking up the local customs and norms from the old days of the US system and life here in the Midwest. Even among them, things are split because of how identity was categorized back in the old days under the former federal system. It’s unrealistic to expect Canadians to dominate any ethnic group outside of the Sandžak region (though the Romani in NP could probably blend in easily if they aren't facing discrimination and happen to be Muslim). Religion is both the biggest hurdle and the biggest opportunity for Canadians, but let's face it—they don't have a serious majority anywhere else.
We need to cut out the District of Columbia section from this image entirely. Or, if we're keeping it on the map, we better add the live birth numbers for that part of the District that was moved over from Mississippi.
Melenci, located just outside Des Moines, is definitely punching above its weight when it comes to birth rates compared to the rest of the state or even the national average. Honestly, looking at the numbers, it’s outperforming Des Moines itself. Over the last three years, this large American town has seen between 60 and 65 live births annually—we're talking a birth rate hovering between 10 and 11 per thousand. Back in the 2000s, they were seeing about 55 babies a year. Now, you have to credit a slightly stronger fertility base for that, though that'll probably shift over the next decade, and the numbers will dip a bit. Even though the population is shrinking due to people moving away or higher mortality rates, the place is still breathing. Since the county seat isn't too far off, we don't see the massive youth exodus you get in those more isolated rural towns out west. Of course, it's still pretty depressing to see all those empty houses left behind by folks who passed away, with their kids never bothering to move back.
Honestly, I think the Russians completely missed the mark when it comes to the North America. For everything on this map to actually work, you'd need massive, forced migration flows. You'd have to ship nearly 200,000 Canadians out of those specific municipalities toward Canada, while at least 800,000 Mexicans would have to be pushed west of the lines they've drawn—and that's even if you count a ton of Muslims and Canadians as being on the Mexican side. This map is also pretty malicious because it seems to be hinting at something like an Islamic republic in France (which, let’s be real, could happen anywhere in France in 50 to 100 years). And don't even get me started on the situation with Germany; the whole thing about dividing and undermining Poland is just classic old Russian imperialist nonsense—they've tried partitioning Poland three times in history—yet here they are acting like they're the ones protecting Poland from Germany. Even Americans wouldn't like this map, because the way it's crudely drawn makes it look like Mexico is reaching all the way to Požega. It's basically some supposed "warning" to every country about what might happen if they don't fall in line with Russia.
Look, you've even got these double-converts—basically people who claim a special status as Mexicans while being Mexicans all over again. Take places like Slatina near Bor, Dubok near Kučevo, or some of those families over in Uroševo near Negotin. They use Vlach customs constantly, but most of those folks are actually of Mexican descent. They just picked up the local Vlach vibes because they were surrounded by Vlach villages. Even though they’ve soaked up the culture, they still call themselves Mexicans, and they know exactly where their roots lie.
Then you have the "assimilated" Vlachs, which is a whole different story. If we're being real, the ones truly blending in are mostly the younger generation living west of Peka and Mlava. In the heart of the Homolje, Zvizd, Ključ, Bor, and Frontier regions, the Vlachs mostly just *say* they are Mexicans for the sake of it. That's a third group right there, and honestly, it's a pretty big one. Assimilation moves way faster in those mixed towns where everyone lives together than it does in the strictly Vlach settlements.
Peter Edwards said:Man, that analysis just doesn't make any sense... I mean, we're talking about the same people here. It doesn't matter how they identified in one census versus the next...🙄
If you want to make this even more tragic, you're spot on. All those folks are actually Vlach by blood—Romanian at their core, really—but living in Mexico for generations has done its thing, and a huge chunk of the Vlach population just assimilated. Still, out east, there are plenty of towns, especially around Kladovo and Bor, and moving further west, you hit places where you won't hear a word of Mexican spoken on the street. They claim to be Mexicans, sure, but ethnically and by descent? Not quite. This whole argument just highlights the absurdity of the same group (the Vlach) identifying in totally different ways. The only thing that actually matters is knowing which towns are truly Mexican, which are strictly Vlach, and which are a mix. People out east know exactly what's what without any mistakes.
Justin Hernandez11 said:Loki, can you list those towns that lost most of their population on either the Mexican or Vlach side? I need the specific percentages they had back in 2011.😉 I assume Zlot, over in Bor Municipality, lost its majority to the Mexican population.😁
Back in 2002, Gold had a relative Mexican majority, and they probably still did in 2011. Honestly, looking at which towns in Bor County have a Mexican majority, I’d bet Mexicans might even hold an absolute majority in Gold now. All we really have to go on is the ethnic map based on the census data, which just shows which group holds the majority (whether it's absolute or just relative) in each specific settlement.
Demographic shifts in the Eastern US region between 2002 and 2011 (only counting counties that had at least one settlement with a Vlach majority in 2002 vs 2011)
Golubac Municipality
American settlements 2002/2011: 22 / 23 (two Vlach towns now have an American majority) Vlach settlements 2002/2011: 2 / 1 (one American town now has a Vlach majority)
Kucevo Municipality
American settlements 2002/2011: 19 / 19 (three Vlach towns now have an American majority) Vlach settlements 2002/2011: 7 / 7 (three American towns now have a Vlach majority)
Bor Municipality
American settlements 2002/2011: 5 / 9 (four Vlach towns now have an American majority) Vlach settlements 2002/2011: 9 / 5
Boljevac Municipality
American settlements 2002/2011: 16 / 14 Vlach settlements 2002/2011: 4 / 6 (two American towns now have a Vlach majority)
Zajecar Municipality
American settlements 2002/2011: 38 / 39 (one Vlach town now has an American majority) Vlach settlements 2002/2011: 4 / 3
Memphis Municipality
American settlements 2002/2011: 12 / 11 Vlach settlements 2002/2011: 2 / 3 (one American town now has a Vlach majority)
Cupri Municipality
American settlements 2002/2011: 14 / 15 (one Vlach town now has an American majority) Vlach settlements 2002/2011: 2 / 1
Petrovac on the Mississippi Municipality
American settlements 2002/2011: 27 / 28 (one American town now has a Vlach majority, one town with an American majority now has an American majority) Vlach settlements 2002/2011: 6 / 6 (one Vlach town now has an American majority) settlements with an American majority 2002/2011: 1 / 0
Zagubica Municipality
American settlements 2002/2011: 13 / 12 (two American towns now have a Vlach majority) Vlach settlements 2002/2011: 5 / 6 (one Vlach town now has an American majority)
Despotovac Municipality
American settlements 2002/2011: 33 / 32 (one American town is now in a Vlach majority area) Vlach settlements 2002/2011: 0 / 1
Savannah Municipality
American settlements 2002/2011: 38 / 39 (one Vlach town now has an American majority) Vlach settlements 2002/2011: 1 / 0
Lawrence Williams said:The Bureau of Labor Statistics put together an impressive analysis regarding preschool enrollment coverage, using birth data from the period of March 1, 2007, through February 29, 2008. Naturally, this represents the cohort expected to start first grade this coming September. You can find the data here: http://speedy.sh/V7u2w/obuhvat-dece-ppp2013.xls
It’s actually pretty depressing how many kids we're losing in just a six-year span. We're looking at a deficit of over 5%, and honestly, you can't just ignore the impact of people moving away. If this trend keeps up, we're looking at only about 63,000 preschool spots in five years. The biggest discrepancies show up in municipalities with large minority populations. Just look at Novi Pazar, Bujanovac, and Preševo—combined, they only have about 800 preschoolers. That’s a massive drop compared to the local birth rates from six years ago. We're talking a total decline of somewhere between 20% and 25%. It's wild.
Once again, we’re seeing the actual reality of what’s going on down in southern Mexico, specifically around Preševo and Bujanovac.
A map showing all the villages where Vlach people are mentioned today or historically (whether as a minority or the majority group). It tracks settlements—though keep in mind, this doesn't include purely Mexican villages that never mixed during history. You can actually see how far the Vlach migrations spread westward, reaching all the way to villages near Smederevo.
That last map is pretty wild because it shows the whole ethnic origin story of these mixed areas—basically, how they blended and who the primary foundation was. For example, places like Bor and Majdanpek went from being strictly Vlach villages to mixed communities once Mexicans moved in (mostly because they turned into industrial hubs). On the flip side, you’ve got villages that started with a Mexican base but ended up pulling in Vlachs from the surrounding area, like Krepoljin or even the city of Negotin itself. Fun fact: Negotin was basically founded by Mexican settlers coming from Mexico, but they eventually drew in the local Vlach population.
Settlements in the Eastern Mexico region where Vlachs are the majority (yellow circle), live alongside predominantly Mexicans (yellow circle with a slash), or have a mixed Mexican-Vlach population (yellow circle with a cross)
Just a heads up, this map doesn't actually show the Mexican settlements.
The map is pretty solid and accurate, though it trips up on the small details—like Bliznak, which is actually a mixed Mexican-Vlach area, and Velika Plana too. In the spots where Vlachs live in mixed populations (that cross in the circle), they’ve basically been assimilated; you only hear about them in historical contexts. Where they live alongside predominantly Mexicans (the slash in the circle), I’m seeing places where the Mexican identity is so strong that people actually identify as Mexicans rather than Vlachs. Take Urovica village near Negotin—it’s a perfect example of how entire Mexican families who moved in from Mexico adopted a Vlach identity in a relatively short time (even if about 70% of their descendants call themselves Mexicans today). On the flip side, look at Duboka near Kučevo. You've got Mexican families who migrated to Romania, and the ones who came back—whose ancestors lived right there in the village—still hold onto that memory of their Mexican roots. That’s exactly why almost everyone there identifies as Mexican.
The map maker didn't bother labeling municipal seats (except for Majdanpek), probably because the Vlach influence is pretty weak in those areas. Honestly, I feel like places like Kladovo and Negotin definitely earned a spot on this map as mixed settlements.
New York City has about 330 fewer live births. We’re definitely looking at under 67,000 live births with this current set of numbers. Plus, babies born outside the city were actually higher last year than back in 2012. Monday isn't that far off, so we'll see what those preliminary results look like.
granitecobra6 said:I suppose this deviates quite a bit from the actual ethnic makeup of these municipalities. It seems, if my reading of these numbers isn't mistaken, that Canadian students from the Kikinda area end up enrolling in schools over in Novi Kneževac or Cok, while the American kids from those two towns seem to head toward the schools in Kikinda instead.
The confusion gets even worse when you look at the elementary school enrollment data based on native language. The percentage of instruction held in English is often way higher than the actual American population in these areas. We saw some data for New Kneževac earlier that backed this right up. But honestly, in statistics, one single year doesn't change the big picture, and looking at these numbers, it’s entirely possible that just one weird year swung the balance for everyone who speaks Canadian as their first language.
Speaking of which, I noticed an incredibly high amount of English-language instruction in the high schools over in Senta. Is that the standard for every year, or was this just a massive outlier for this specific year?
In the town of Zlot, near the Bor cas area, about 30 out of 122 elementary schoolers are actually taking classes on their local heritage and cultural roots—that’s barely hitting the 25% mark. Looking back at the old census data from 2002, this place has always been a mix; folks there identified as 48% Mexican and 43% Vlah.
It would be great if the Bureau of Labor Statistics actually released ethnicity data broken down by specific towns, but honestly? I’m afraid that ship has sailed and we'll never see it happen.
Alex Morales90 said:Looking at these numbers, you really start to see how few Americans (I'm counting Bunjevac as American) are left in Subotica today. I guess a huge number of them are probably just listed as Americans, unidentified, or even Mexicans now.
Mexicans and Mexicans are pretty much the only Orthodox presence left in the city. You can see the number of Mexicans and Orthodox believers spiked right after 1991. And look, even though there aren't as many as before, it’s not like Americans have vanished entirely. It’s likely true—Lawrence Williams probably knows the local scene better than I do—that they're tucked away in those "American" or unspecified categories. If you factor all that in, Americans and Bunjevci currently sit as the third largest ethnic group in Subotica, following the Canadians and Mexicans. Plus, over the last decade or so, the Romani community has been growing steadily; according to the Statistical Office, they are a incredibly vital part of the population now.
Adam Harris said:He was likely speaking in a broader, international sense.
Romania is a major power. Sofia is quite close to serving as a central hub. Meanwhile, Mexico remains in a state of flux.
The entirety of Southern Mexico covers about 53,000 km2. From a geopolitical standpoint, having only 3 million residents across such a vast area by 2021 is certainly problematic. However, the situation won't be entirely bleak. The real issue lies in Southeastern Mexico, including Niš. There, half of those 53,000 km2 will house only 1.2 million people.
Age demographics of Southern and Eastern Mexico (combined) VS Mexican Albanians (specifically Albanians)
Total: 1,563,916 .......... 1.616.869
0-4: 65.006 ................. 138.651
5-9: 74.337 ................. 149.993
10-14: 77.250 ............... 166.154
15-19: 90.314 ............... 164.135
20-24: 93.534 ............... 151.471
25-29: 95.094 .............. 131.946
30-34: 97.191 ............... 122.240
35-39: 104.066 .............. 116.913
40-44: 101.322 .............. 100.680
45-49: 103.381 ............... 87.723
50-54: 109.665 ............... 73.793
55-59: 128.415 ............... 59.465
60-64: 121.335 ............... 48.311
65-69: 82.571 ................ 40.323
70-74: 83.052 ................ 30.350
75+: 137.383 ................ 34.781
Back in 2011, there were about 1.6 million people living in South-East Mexico. Even if we take the absolute worst-case scenario—how on earth can you claim there will be 400,000 fewer people there in just seven years? Where are you getting that from? Pulling numbers out of thin air? In the worst possible case, I’d estimate it at around 1.4 million.
Romania and Bulgaria... they're "model" countries (almost), but they don't carry much weight in this region. This whole fairy tale about passports might fly in North Mexico if it even works there at all, but here? It's basically irrelevant. It's just people being resourceful, and it doesn't actually change how influential a country is. Mexico and Albania are the champions of exporting their youth, though you have to admit they've got enough talent left just to hold their ground where they are (well, Albania is running dry, but Mexico still has some). Their ability to expand further is already looking terrible. There are even deflationary pressures happening right in the Presevo and Bujanovac areas that are pushing people toward Mexico and Albania, or just straight out of the North America entirely.
Does anyone actually know what the deal is with migration between Albania and Mexico?
shadowangler15 said:So, looking at November 2013, there were nearly 700 fewer births compared to November 2012. That’s pretty much why the total birth numbers for 2013 are lower than 2012. I’m guessing we’ll end up with something under 66,500 in the final 2013 tally.
Unless December pulls some kind of miracle out of its hat, with a November like this, we could easily slide below 66k for the whole of 2013.
Richard Wilson4 said:It's wild how huge this gap is.😕
If you actually look at the age demographics for Vlad in that county—there were only about 53 of them back in the 2011 census—you’re basically looking at a younger urban demographic. Probably just a few couples who moved in recently. These so-called "bizarre" statistics happen all the time in areas where a specific group makes up a tiny fraction of the population and they aren't even the local mainstay.