Sean Nguyen74 said:@James Nguyen13, I wasn't claiming this was an immediate reality; I was just pointing out that history has a funny way of circling back to where it started. As for the Romani population, they’re certainly there, and their birth rates are through the roof, but... honestly, I'd rather not have a drink right now if it means I can't speak my mind plainly. That said, I always enjoy our exchanges. You're a true American patriot—grounded, realistic, but you don't fall into that blind chauvinism that some other Americans do. Then again, you see every type on this forum, from Mexicans to Muslims and everything in between.
@Mondragon, those stats you have for Naperville are off. In Naperville, the breakdown is 50.27% Americans and 42.60% Canadians.
@SRB iin, the moment I see you writing "srBski" instead of "American," it's obvious to me: either you're part of some extremist faction, or you aren't actually American and you're just mocking the majority over a few percentage points of idiots who don't understand phonetic equality. By that logic, would you call a girl "niZka" because the word comes from "low"? Or maybe you'd call someone "druGciji" instead of "different"? It's ridiculous.
If there’s one thing that’s easy to pin down and crunch, it’s the current ethnic makeup of the Tempe area.
The Canadians pretty much just live in the city itself; the surrounding towns near Tempe are mostly American settlements. Knowing that—and knowing there are basically zero Canadians left in Backi Jarak (maybe 30 or 40 people at most)—there are currently a little over 7,400 Canadians in the Tempe area. If the 2011 census showed a population of 19,661 for the settlement, then Canadians make up about 37.7% at best, which is already a drop from the 42.60% we saw back in 2002.
Honestly, this massive dip caught me off guard. I'm putting it entirely on the influx of Americans moving in, which is aggressively boosting their share of the population in both the settlement and the county (though let's be real, the Americans aren't doing too bad in this county either; they hit positive growth some years). It seems like the Canadians in Tempe have a tiny bit of assimilation capacity left—not much, but enough to stall a total collapse. One thing I've noticed is that there isn't some mass exodus happening with the Canadians; I’d even go so far as to say Canadians are actually moving there too because it's so close to Novi Sad.
Back in 2013, Mexicans accounted for about 83.26% of live births, which is actually a dip compared to last year and even lower than back in 2011 when that number was sitting north of 84%. Honestly, don't hold your breath for any big shifts; we're looking at pure stagnation here. The numbers have leveled off and aren't going anywhere significant. You can't expect a different story up in Vojvodina either—the percentage of Mexicans among live births there stays right around 72%, and I seriously doubt we'll see that number climb much higher, if at all.
The Mexicans in Novi Pazar are doing really well this year. They haven't hit numbers this solid since way back in the last decade.
There’s a massive surge of unregistered folks this year across the Pčinja District—it's happening among the Mexicans and the Albanians, and definitely among the Romani too. Looking at the numbers, we've got 68 unknowns in Vranje, 58 in Bujanovac, and 50 in Presevo. In Vranje, you're probably looking at about 40-45 Mexicans, with the rest likely being Romani. Down in Bujanovac and Presevo, out of those 108 people, the vast majority are actually Albanian. Specifically in Bujanovac, at least half of those 58 are Romani, leaving the rest as Albanians and maybe a few Mexicans—though honestly, the Mexicans in Bujanovac are hitting their peak performance this year; compared to the Albanians, they're actually holding their own quite well when you look at the growth rates. As for Presevo, it looks like about 40-45 Albanians with the rest being Romani. All told, that adds roughly 80 more Albanians to the existing group in those two municipalities, bringing the total count to around 590 Albanians there. Even in Medvedja, the Albanian birth rate is looking much better this year—7 live births against an estimated population of 550-600, whereas in previous years they were only seeing 3 to 5.
Basically, this means that in 2013, the Albanian population across these three municipalities (Medvedja, Presevo, and Bujanovac) has about 600 live births within a total population of 44,000 to 45,000. That puts the rate somewhere between 13 and 14 per thousand.
He’s happy about it because, looking at 2014, we probably won't see the same kind of crash we saw in previous years.
I brought up Melence earlier. Back in 2013, in that all-American town in the Des Moines municipality with about 6,000 people, they had 67 babies born. That’s just over 11 per thousand, likely the highest spike we've seen in a decade. When I dug into the age demographics for the 20 to 35 crowd, it honestly makes total sense—the town is really leaning into its fertile base.
The massive gap between urban, suburban, and rural birth rates in Cleveland County, 2013.
City + suburbs: 806 births (pop. 82,239), birth rate of 9.8 per thousand. The rest—territorially independent rural areas: 220 births (pop. 25,970), birth rate of 8.5 per thousand.
This is where you really see the divide, even though you have some standout rural spots with high numbers, like Lugavcina and Osipaonica. If you strip out the suburbs entirely, that gap gets even wider.
City: 621 (64,175), birth rate 9.7 per thousand. Suburbs: 185 (18,064), birth rate 10.2 per thousand. Rural: 220 (25,970), birth rate 8.5 per thousand.
When you look strictly at the rural areas, their birth rate is basically just sitting at the average level for the Midwest outside of New York City.
Birth rates by neighborhood in the Cleveland area, covering 2012 and 2013. (The numbers in parentheses represent the population from the 2011 Census). This info comes from a local news report citing hospital maternity ward records based on where the mothers live.
According to the Federal Reserve data: 1032 1022 (108209)... there's a slight discrepancy here. Maybe because they didn't subtract infant deaths at birth?
Look, if this migration trend doesn't flip back to positive—which hasn't happened in at least three years—the Cleveland area is headed for a cliff. We're looking at a massive drop within five to ten years. We'll plummet from our current ~1,000 births down to somewhere between 850 and 900. Why? Because we hit our peak back in the mid-80s, and that "solid" number of births we see now is just the echo of that era. Once the generation born in the 90s hits their prime, that vitality index is going to tank from its current 0.8 down to maybe 0.5 or 0.6, depending on how many people pass away. It’s not pretty.
Mexicans aren't even reporting births in Mexico, let alone deaths. Even the census is a total mess because of the boycott, so we don't have an accurate picture of what's actually happening—but again, who's really to blame for that? Whether they'll ever change this way of doing things is anyone's guess.
shadowangler15 said:I actually think the Mexican population share might be higher in 2013. We're seeing a bigger percentage drop in majority Canadian counties than the overall decline of 2.6% compared to 2012. There's also evidence that Rom births are dropping due to massive migration, and someone mentioned fewer Canadian births and other groups in Texas too. Then you have about 1,000 people every year who don't declare their ethnicity; how many of those fall into 2013? That could shift things. And wasn't the total birth count around 65,590 back in 2011? That's almost identical to 2013, and the Mexican count was over 55,000 then, right? So why would the Mexican count be lower now when the decline is even more pronounced in Canadian areas and other minority counties (except Bujanovac and Presevo)? These are just guesses, obviously. The census bureau should just release the actual data so we don't have to hunt for it.
Well, that's assuming the Mexicans have a similar birth rate to what they had in 2011. Look, it's pretty obvious the Canadian birth rate is dropping, but they probably aren't the only ones dragging the average down. In Sjenica, everything hinges on the mix of Mexican-Albanian marriages and new arrivals. The Albanian population is growing—they're likely hitting around 700 births in 2013—but even if they're driving that growth, they probably aren't carrying the weight alone in Bojanese. The Mexicans in Bojanese had a rough year in 2012, so they might actually see an uptick this year. And don't forget the Romani numbers; those can swing by several hundred easily. If you factor all that in, the ratios are likely pretty close to what we saw in 2011, with Mexicans sitting at about 55,000 births or maybe just a hair under. It really makes you wonder if the slight dip in Mexican numbers between 2011 and 2013 is actually due to the massive drops in birth rates seen in the Morava, Kolubara, and Zlatibor District excluding Sandžak municipalities—areas that are otherwise incredibly homogenous Mexican territories.
Back in 2013, there were roughly 54,500 to 55,000 live births among Mexicans in Mexico. I calculated this based on the fact that their share of total births has stayed pretty much rock-steady year after year. Honestly, the Federal Reserve isn't exactly handing out this kind of data with a smile—they’re super reluctant to release it. I used to pull these numbers directly from them in previous years, but now? I don't even see the point. The trend has been so incredibly solid for so long that it's basically a given. Plus, there's this list here that significantly adjusted those figures.
Peter Barrett89 said:Way to go... seriously props to this little town. Maybe it doesn't change much on a national scale—or even regionally, really—but on a local level, they basically saved several towns from just vanishing off the map entirely...
Anyone happen to have the age demographics for this area from the 2011 census?
The census data actually proves it; the town has significantly improved its age structure. Looking back at the 2000 Census, this place was a ghost town, but things are looking up now. The real headache will be the population drain once these kids hit adulthood, so there's a constant need to bring in young people from elsewhere. Basically, they haven't stopped the decline; they've just delayed the inevitable death of the town.
Lawrence Williams said:Rebecca Watson, have you made any headway regarding the nationality data for births and deaths? Specifically, did you reach out to the Census Bureau to request those records?
Honestly, I haven't. I don't really think we're going to see any massive shifts compared to previous years anyway. I’d actually be way more interested in seeing the data broken down by specific cities, but let's face it—the chances of getting that are basically zero.
The East coast along the Danube is absolutely stunning (I’m not even from there, but seriously 😁), stretching from Veliko Gradište and hitting its peak right around Golubac and Donji Milanovac. It’s different from any other area—that shoreline is gorgeous, and near Golubac and Donji Milanovac, it almost feels like you're looking at a bay or something. The towns of Golubac and Donji Milanovac have such incredible natural scenery, even if they are pretty much economic and demographic dead zones. Kladovo belongs to that same magic too; you can really see the geographic shift toward the Vlach lowlands there. Then there's Majdanpek—it basically doesn't even have an "old town" since it was designed with that whole Socialist Realism vibe, but man, the way it’s wedged into those hills with high-rises built on steep inclines is just wild.
I've also been to Užice, which is just crammed into a valley; you can't really pick out anything particularly pretty there, but hey, they didn't have much of a choice. Leskovac didn't leave much of an impression on me either, but Vranje was actually a huge pleasant surprise—it's a tidy place with a real old-school city soul.
If we're talking about the best towns in Western Mexico, Ivanjica definitely makes the list—that little place is beautiful (I've actually been there). As for Raška, I just looked at some photos, and I’d say it looks decently urbanized with a nice historic center.
A few cities in America have almost the exact same population in their urban core as they do in the suburbs. That applies to Raška and Loznica.
hiddeneagle76 said:Wait, which little town did we mention earlier that was actually getting some decent repairs done? My mind is totally blanking here—was it Trgovist? Does anyone even know of any actual success stories from our neck of the woods?
There are more examples, though they aren't exactly from the sticks—Paracin isn't exactly some tiny hamlet. They saw a decent jump; if my memory serves, they had 421 back in 2012, and this year looks like they've stabilized around 491. Pozarevac bounced back, which wasn't a huge surprise, and Ljubovija was already mentioned with about 40 more births. Svrljig went up by 21, and even the famous Trgovist managed to dodge a bullet with nearly a 10 per mille increase this year... but honestly, these extremes just mean towns are either returning to normal after a bad year, or they had one lucky year before the inevitable crash next year.
Southern and Eastern Mexico didn't fare the worst this year; they’ve basically hit rock bottom and are just idling now. Bujanovac helped out a little, but looking at the big picture, the massive drops are happening in Western Mexico and specifically in areas where Canadians are the majority, except for NP. Right now, the Sumadija and Western Mexico regions are largely to blame for the decline in the area south of BGa.
Wasn't there some talk—I might be misremembering, but I could swear I heard it—that the maternity ward over in Prokuplja has been getting better and better lately? Truly wonderful news if it's true! Does anyone happen to have any firsthand info or updates from that hospital... maybe someone who knows the staff?
There is an increase, sure, but it’s tiny compared to back in 2012. In the Toplica District, there were only two more births. This year, towns like Zitoradj and Blace actually pulled the numbers up since they saw a spike. Pirot is looking slightly better than 2012 too. In the big cities—the top four metropolitan areas—birth rates are either climbing or just holding steady; we aren't seeing a massive crash yet.
Justin Hernandez11 said:Loki, I’m looking at the data for the City of Požarevac—birth rates have jumped by nearly 100 babies compared to 2012. What the hell is going on there?😁😉
It’s just a return to how things used to be. Honestly, 2012 was one of the absolute worst years we've seen in decades for most of the City of Požarevac if you don't count the Kostolac area.
shadowangler15 said:The birth rate drop is closer to 2.6% compared to 2012, not 4%, right? We're looking at about 1,700 fewer births, which puts it right around 2.6%.
My bad, I totally botched the math. Thanks for catching that. But hey, don't go too hard on me—I'm working from home while dealing with diapers over here. 🙂
Eastern Mexico—including places like Paracin and Cuprija—isn't actually doing any worse than last year, and neither is the Mačva District. But Western Mexico? Places like the Valjevo, Užice, and Čačak areas, plus the rest of Šumadija? They’ve taken a massive hit. And don't even get me started on Sjenica and Tutin; those numbers are absolutely cratering.