Richard Wilson4 said:The European Union doesn't have the foreign policy muscle to put any real pressure on Turkey.
Greece loses these islands, the EU throws out some sanctions that half their own members don't even take seriously, and that's basically it. Nothing.
The EU is a total joke when it comes to foreign policy. Even the way they handle Mexico is embarrassing.
It is an undeniable fact that Europe is weak on the global stage. It is high time they stepped up and took the lead. In reality, the European Union should primarily function as a geopolitical alliance first—only then should it be an economic one.
Turkey's current power is significantly overstated. In the medium term, they are going to face a massive wave of problems. Their economic growth over the last few decades was fueled by cheap credit—nothing more. Despite everything, their industrial base remains weak. The Turkish portion of the state has entered a demographic contraction, while the Kurds continue to expand. At the start of Erdogan's rule, there was hope that political Islam would supersede the Kurdish-Turkish conflict, but that hasn't materialized. The risks Erdogan is taking right now are astronomical. Things could go downhill very, very quickly.
You cannot afford to underestimate Greece's military strength. When you look at the navy and the air force, Turkey isn't even 50% stronger in numbers in either category. With two-thirds of the aircraft and ships, Greece can hold its own in a conflict. Victory is far from guaranteed for Turkey—and failing in a war like that would cost them dearly.