Posts by Anthony Hill5

wiredseal7 said:I mean, sure, things could be organized—if you're talking about New Orleans—but it would have to be on Russia's terms. That requires actual goodwill and concessions from both sides, something the West isn't even willing to whisper about. All we hear is talk about how Americans can sink the Russian fleet with Amer Harpoons or whatever else.

It's not even like that Ukrainian grain is the only thing keeping the lights on; Russia and Europe are looking at record harvests this year anyway. Russia is exporting more wheat than last year, and China has massive stockpiles they can move whenever.

Once again, I fail to see any condemnation regarding the Russian weaponization of food supplies, a tactic designed to incite famine in the poorest nations on Earth just to satisfy their own political and economic agendas. 🙂

steelfox98 said:The ruble already tanked down to 57; honestly, it’s holding up much better than it did back in February.
There was all this noise about how Russia would go bankrupt by mid-April, but the reality is their revenues this year are higher than ever. Sure, sanctions hurt, but you have to ask: who actually got hit harder?
Meanwhile, over here, anyone not living off their parents' dime can see the reality—flour jumped from $6 to $3.00, oil went from $12 to $18, and gas prices are all over the place. That’s even with government intervention; without it, things would be much worse. My apologies if my math is slightly off. Inflation in the Baltic states is hitting nearly 20%.

Those of us who have been watching this long know we saw a similar pattern eight years ago. The initial shock rattled the Russians, but long-term, it actually served them. They bolstered their financial sector, stimulated domestic industry, and flipped from being net importers to one of the biggest agricultural exporters out there.

The bottom line is that in a crisis, two things matter: food and energy. We only have food, and even that depends on energy. Right now, Americans and Russians are just sitting back eating popcorn because they have both.
A textbook example: we banned fertilizer imports, yet the US specifically carved out exemptions for them in the sanctions.
It brings me back to 2014 when the US was pulling our strings (Joe Biden boasted about how he forced us to implement sanctions), while simultaneously sanctioning things that didn't even affect them. The result? Trade between the US and Russia actually increased that year. Talk about a spectacle.

It looks better only because capital controls have been implemented; major corporations have essentially been ordered to convert 80% of their foreign currency reserves into Rubles.

Furthermore, imports into Russia have cratered, rendering any actual demand for Euros or Dollars virtually non-existent.

There was all this grand speculation about how Russia would go bankrupt by April 15th, yet the reality is that their revenues this year are higher than ever before. Of course, sanctions are causing them harm, but isn't the question really about who has actually suffered more?

This is just your standard pro-Russian trolling mantra, when in fact it is painfully obvious that Russians have lost 30% of their GDP from 2014 until now, while the GDP in the European Union has grown.

By the end of this year, Russians will be even wealthier despite having a GDP that is 10-15% lower.

During that same period here in America, everyone except those still living off their parents can see that the price of flour jumped from $6 to $3.00, oil went from $12 to $18, and gas prices are spiraling out of control. This is happening despite government interventions; without them, prices would be even higher. I apologize if my figures are slightly off. Inflation in the Baltic states is nearing 20%.

Inflation in Russia was at 10% before the war began, and their key interest rate is currently sitting at 17%. Does anyone know what the rate is in the Baltic states?

Back in December, Musk was already introducing moratoriums on the prices of basic groceries, and even then, bread prices rose by over 10%. I have addressed this matter numerous times on the Russia subforum.

Those who have followed this closely know that a similar situation occurred eight years ago. The initial shock rattled the Russians, but it ultimately served them in the long run because they strengthened their financial sector, stimulated domestic industry, and transformed themselves from net importers into some of the largest agricultural exporters.

As I stated above, the impact was so severe that their GDP plummeted from $2.2 trillion down to $1.6 trillion.

wiredseal7 said:The Americans are sweating over how to move Ukrainian grain.

With the bridge near Zatoka trashed and the maritime blockade of Odessa still holding firm—especially after that failed offensive on Snake Island—things are messy. Now they’re entertaining this idea of hauling it by rail through Belarus to reach the port of Klaipeda. The catch? They might lift sanctions on Belarusian potash fertilizer to make the deal work.

Honestly, the Americans are kind of a joke. They always act like they can just wipe the slate clean and pretend everything is fine the moment they extend an olive branch... How convenient, right? And apparently, they need the fertilizer just as much as the grain. 🙂

Can I ask a stupid question here: why not just ship the grain toward Poland? Maybe they don't want to tie up the rail lines needed for moving weapons, and returning empty freight cars would be too much of a hassle? Guess they have to pick their priorities.

I certainly didn't expect you to condemn the Russian blockade of wheat exports, which is effectively starving millions of people in Africa and the Middle East just to serve their own strategic interests.

dustyowl29 said:The US really needs to lean on Venezuela to ramp up production—we need that market stability if we want prices to actually drop. Same goes for Iran. They’ve got the oil, but Americans have managed to annoy pretty much everyone, and now that things are getting tight, suddenly everyone else is acting like they're doing us a massive favor... :-D

The Venezuelans would be pumping out oil if it weren't for the fact that their socialist management styles and blatant cronyism have completely gutted their production capacity.

It won't be long before we find ourselves facing a reality where Chinese manufacturers are producing superior automobiles compared to their European and Japanese counterparts.🤣

steelfox98 said:Customs duties? Please. The European Union will slap them on, while the rest of the world stays out of it. Who is Russia going to sell to then? It reminds me of that recent Borrell quote where he basically called people crazy for thinking "Canadians are being economic instead of political."
Just a reminder: not a single country outside the Western circle has even implemented sanctions. That's about 160 out of 200 nations.

The only actual issue here is that Russia holds its largest share of trade within those 40 specific nations. The remaining 160 are almost entirely negligible, and even the heavy hitters like China are trading less than they used to.

How on earth a single country like Burkina Faso is supposed to replace the massive trade volume previously held by Germany or how Myanmar could ever substitute South Korea is something you will have to explain to us.

https://tradingeconomics.com/russia/exports-by-country

Kenneth Cruz67 said:I guess this whole situation is a bit more nuanced than it looks at first glance; it doesn't really seem like a classic case of aggressive nationalization where assets are just seized, but rather it feels like Renault opted to sell off its holdings in Russia to a state-owned enterprise 🤔

Renault has essentially handed over assets valued at 2.2 billion euros for the princely sum of a SINGLE ruble. There is some mention of a buyback option, though the specifics remain shrouded in mystery.

wiredseal7 said:Solving a lack of strategic reserves (infrastructure) through seizures? Just the American way... reminds me of what happened with Citgo.

Maybe they should try building something themselves for a change.
They've even got those hidden pockets up in northern Germany—so there's your solution for gas and oil.

Here you go, my friend.

I am eagerly awaiting your scathing critique.

Russia Nationalizes Renault Plant, Revives Soviet-Era Moskvich Car

https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2022/...tch-car-a77685

The Russians have nationalized the Renault plant and are moving forward with production of the Moskvich, as the regime deems the Moskvich to be the most rational choice for citizens living in this era of progress and prosperity.

Once again, sanctions have only served to strengthen Russia.

wiredseal7 said:https://www.swissinfo.ch/eng/switzer...tions/47590508

Once the dust finally settled, the Swiss decided to unfreeze about a third of those Russian assets.
Well, I guess we overshot the mark on that one...

My apologies, perhaps I was a bit too hasty in my assessment.

Although an additional CHF2.2 billion were blocked, CHF3.4 billion were released again after being frozen on a precautionary basis.

“The number of frozen assets is not an indicator for how effective sanctions are implemented,” Bollinger said. “The numbers can fluctuate in both directions.”

Swiss banks and asset managers can provisionally freeze funds but funds need to be released if they cannot establish that the assets are directly owned or controlled by a sanctioned individual.

So, what we have here is quite simple: they unblocked money that had been held merely as a precaution. Once it was determined—or rather, once it could not be proven—that the funds actually belonged to sanctioned individuals, the money was released. Aside from that, they did freeze an additional 2.2 billion francs, but does that truly matter? They will undoubtedly overreach again soon enough.

Tucker Carlson 🤣

Siemens is pulling out of Russia after 170 years.

The German electronics giant Siemens is exiting Russia after about 170 years of business there, the latest in a long list of companies to pull out of the country since its invasion of Ukraine in February.

With a workforce of 3,000 people stationed in Russia, the firm announced this Thursday that it is systematically shutting down every single one of its industrial operations and business ventures. According to an accompanying financial statement, Siemens Said that in its second quarter, the fallout from Russian sanctions resulted in a staggering loss of 0.6 billion euros—which translates to roughly $625 million. Is anyone truly surprised by such a massive financial blow?

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/05/12/b...?smid=url-copy

Automobile sales in Russia have plummeted by a staggering 78% during the fourth month, marking what is quite possibly the most catastrophic decline in automotive sales since record-keeping even began.

To put this collapse into perspective, a mere 32,706 vehicles were sold, whereas during the same period last year, the market saw a substantial 151,964 units move off the lots.

Even more telling is the situation at Ford, which was forced into a collective annual shutdown from April through late December simply because they couldn't get their hands on necessary production parts; consequently, they managed to sell only 8,506 vehicles, also suffering a massive 78% drop in sales.

https://www.vedomosti.ru/auto/news/2...v-rossii-upali

The Kingdom of Sweden and the United Kingdom have officially inked a mutual security pact, pledging to stand shoulder-to-shoulder should either nation face a military strike or a catastrophic natural disaster.

It won't be long before Finland joins this defensive circle as well.

Britain and Sweden signed a mutual-security declaration on Wednesday, vowing to come to each other’s aid if they face a military threat or natural disaster — an agreement apparently designed to reassure Sweden as it decides whether to apply for NATO membership.

This pact, finalized during a trip to Sweden by Prime Minister Boris Johnson of Britain , is a demonstration of European security solidarity amid Russia ’ sa invasion of Ukraine, even as efforts by European Union ambassadors to approve an embargo on Russian oil to punish Moscow were Held up on Wednesday by Canada.

Mr. Johnson is also slated to finalize a comparable security agreement with the Finnish head of state during his scheduled visit to that nation later today.

https://www.nytimes.com/live/2022/05...?smid=url-copy

Linda Collins3 said:Russia's economy is finally bouncing back

Source, if you have a subscription to The Economist:
https://www.economist.com/finance-an...ck-on-its-feet

The Economist: Russia's economy is back on its feet.

Could you perhaps provide a little more substance than just the headline?

The Italians have seized a luxury yacht valued at $700 million.

While they haven't explicitly declared it belongs to Putin, if you read the fine print provided by the finance ministry, the implication is unmistakable.

The Italian finance ministry announced that an investigation Had established that The ship ’

The ship’s captain, Guy Bennett-Pearce, told The New York Times recently that its owner was not on the sanctions list, but also denied to have seen or met Mr. Putin on the yacht.

And yet, isn't it curious that a former Scheherazade Crew member told The New York Times that He Had never heard of mr. Khudainatov and confirmed that Crew members always believed and discussed The real owner

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/05/06/w...?smid=url-copy

Lisa Jackson7 said:The Gaidar reformers definitely expected Help, if we're talking about Russia... 1991 and 1992 were the make-or-break years, maybe even just that window right after the USSR collapsed through mid-'92.
The Bush administration basically did nothing, what with elections, economic recovery, and all that other stuff.
I didn't know about the Japan thing—what exactly was the threat there?

Regarding Russia wanting in on NATO, they could have leaned hard into "Partnership for Peace" or some kind of associate status in the EU, but that ship sailed.

On the flip side, who was the West actually supposed to help?
Who was running the show, and how much instability were we dealing with?

There's always room for improvement, but...
Sometimes you don't even have a real choice to make.

Like I said—first you had the Gaidar reformers, then the Apple party led by Yavlenski.
You couldn't get a 100% guarantee, obviously, but in the early '90s, the West—specifically the Americans—had massive leverage. That famous Sachov plan should have looked different, focusing way more on building actual political and economic institutions.

Once you miss those windows for making the right moves to steer Russia toward democracy, it's game over. But the big shots in the West didn't really care... just like so many times before, they just went looking for a quick fix to get the job done.
Any resemblance to the Weimar Republic and Hitler isn't just a coincidence.

Many Russians will undoubtedly have nothing but vitriol to offer when it comes to Gaidar.

During Gaidar's era, Russia was a profoundly unstable and chaotic nation, plagued by two attempted coups. Was it the responsibility of the USA to establish the legal and judicial frameworks necessary to transition Russia into a democratic, capitalist society, rather than leaving that task to the Russians themselves? The USA provided what assistance it could given the circumstances, or do some truly believe the USA should have appointed a bankruptcy trustee and turned Russia into a mere protectorate?

Regarding Russia's desire to join NATO, there could have been a genuine push toward a robust "Peacekeeping" initiative or some form of associate membership within the European Union, yet that opportunity was squandered.

That was never a serious proposition to begin with. The first major friction point between the USA and Russia emerged during the conflict in America.

As I have already noted, we had Gaidar’s reformers, followed by the Apple party led by Javlinski.

While absolute guarantees were impossible, during the early nineties, the West—and the Americans in particular—possessed immense leverage; the well-known Sachsov plan ought to have taken a different path, placing a much heavier emphasis on the construction of solid political and economic institutions.

The Apple party only formed after Gaidar’s administration, and they never even came close to securing 10% of the vote in any election. Furthermore, that party was plagued by internal power struggles and infighting, much like the entirety of Russia during that turbulent period.

Lisa Jackson7 said:There’s no way to know for sure ahead of time—if you ask me, the real question is whether there's even any genuine international interest in promoting democracy through peaceful means, rather than the mess we saw in Libya, Iraq, or Afghanistan.

Obviously, any response to those kinds of pushes has to come from a critical mass of motivated groups within the target country itself.

The fact is, when it came to building up democratic institutions and a solid civic political culture in the defeated Axis powers after World War II, having the winning anti-fascist coalition holding all the power levers definitely helped things along.

Is that an absolute prerequisite for success? Who knows—I hope it isn't and that there are other ways to make it work.
And is having a competing superpower around—like the USSR back then—a necessity? Again, I have no clue.

It’s not my place to claim that setting up even somewhat democratic or liberal regimes in Russia or China is easy—honestly, looking at their history, it might not even be possible anytime soon... the whole timeline proves it.

All I know is that it's worth a shot.
The payoff would be finally moving away from the constant threat of war.

And how exactly do you imagine such a feat is possible? Do you truly believe the world's dictators will graciously host democracy workshops, only to step down once the citizenry has been educated enough to demand elections and strip them of their power?

Of course, the response to such incentives must originate from a sufficiently large and motivated critical mass of interest groups within the target nation itself.

Have you not already witnessed the catastrophic endgame when a critical mass attempts to demand change, as was the case in Syria?

Carl Lee27 said:Even ExxonMobil’s Russian counterpart, the biggest shipping company out of Russia, is currently dumping a third of its tankers. To be totally blunt, it's a total fire sale—they're basically slashing prices just to get rid of them.
https://twitter.com/energycomment/st...GUS6YqzJA&s=19

Are they not simply refreshing their entire fleet? They are acquiring newer, much larger tankers because their current vessels are far too small to service the massive Asian market, which is practically sitting there waiting to swallow up their oil and gas.

German exports to Russia plummeted by a staggering 62% in March compared to previous figures.

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/05/04/b...?smid=url-copy

brightheron64 said:Will the European Union ever reach an agreement on a gas embargo? 🤣 I mean, maybe they'll eventually manage something regarding oil, but as for gas... I highly doubt it...
Besides, what does Europe even have to do with this? Why hasn't Ukraine, which is currently suffering through this horrific invasion, just shut down the pipelines for good after three days? This whole situation has taken on such bizarre, almost unbelievable proportions for a single war...

Just yesterday, I was scrolling through some American news sites, and it’s honestly funny how surprised they seem that Russia is being somewhat restrained—almost polite, really—about destroying Ukrainian infrastructure. Because, let's be real, the standard move would be to simply turn everything—transportation hubs, energy grids, water supplies, telecom networks, food warehouses... all of it—into nothing but dust and ash.
What were they actually expecting? Agent Orange? 🤔

It seems to me you’ve merely skimmed a brief summary from VPiT, and in his typical nebulous fashion, he has somewhat muddied the waters.

The article actually states:

The opening weeks of the war demonstrated vividly that Russia's military was far less capable than believed before the invasion; for weeks, officials in Washington have discussed why the Russian military has not been more aggressive in trying to destroy the supply lines that send western arms shipments into Ukraine.

For weeks, officials in Washington have discussed why the Russian military has not been more aggressive in trying to destroy the supply lines that send Western arms shipments into Ukraine. Part of the answer, officials say, is that Ukrainian air defense continues to threaten Russian aircraft, and the deeper Russian planes go into Ukraine the greater the chance they are going to be shot down.

Russia has also struggled with its precision munitions — missiles or rockets with guidance systems. Many of those weapons have failed to work properly, and Russian supplies of the weapons are limited. Strikes on rail lines or moving convoys must be very precise to be effective.

These "benevolent" actors are being incredibly restrained, aren't they? 🤣

https://nyti.ms/3vBGNLa