Posts by Nancy Gomez26

Richard Wilson4 said:Even if the Russians pulled out tomorrow, Ukraine wouldn't stand a chance at holding onto Crimea.

It would basically become their version of the Gaza Strip.

I don't buy it. Once the Russian core retreats, all their local proxies vanish along with them. For those people, even the thought of living under Ukrainian rule is unsustainable. They play the part of brave, mighty Russians—but only when they have the numbers and a repressive state apparatus backing them up. Any other scenario isn't an option. Just as they seized everything when Russia occupied Crimea, they’ll abandon ship the moment Russia leaves. A few die-hards might stay behind, but everyone knows exactly where their loyalties lie.

Richard Wilson4 said:Russia isn't a democracy.

If they pulled back tomorrow, they'd just spin it as a massive win.

It's not going to have the consequences people think it will.

Let them retreat and then let them proclaim victory over the entire world. North Korea has been a "winner" in numerous Olympics and World Cup tournaments, too. That didn't exactly do much for them in real life. There is such a thing as winning too early...
The Russian citizens know perfectly well that their government lies to them—hardly anyone pays much attention to state media anyway—they just aren't sure exactly how deep the deception goes. But they certainly know, by some miracle of informal channels and word-of-mouth, that they are currently losing badly in Ukraine.
As for consequences, there won't be any, thanks to an active system of repression designed to maintain order. Unless someone manages to turn that repressive apparatus against the leadership itself, there is no chance of changing the regime. Russians have a century of experience in this regard; you shouldn't expect the system of repression to simply collapse on its own. It requires an external catalyst—perhaps using that repressive system as an army in a war, where a significant number perish and the survivors return home defeated. That is a different story entirely.

Kate Lewis3 said:A loss in Ukraine is bound to shake up Russia's leadership sooner or later. It’s just history repeating itself—think about how the failure in Afghanistan shook the USSR just two years down the line.

For the most part, people felt a sense of relief when the USSR military pulled out of Afghanistan. (Sure, war veterans caused some friction down the road, but that was just a drop in the bucket compared to the systemic issues hitting the nation.) The withdrawal from Afghanistan wasn't the direct cause of the USSR's collapse; rather, it was the sudden, drastic shift in political doctrine that the public simply couldn't process in such a short window. Perestroika and Glasnost were sound concepts in theory, but the populace didn't know how to navigate them—or perhaps, once you let the genie out of the bottle, there is no going back to the status quo. On the flip side, those reforms ran headlong into a massive bureaucratic machine that controlled every facet of the state, and those new ideas struck at the very foundation of that bureaucracy. But that is a different conversation entirely.

Nathan Thomas12 said:if that happens, some new guy could just declare war and call for total mobilization overnight.

If this new leader maintains the current trajectory, then there was honestly no point in seizing power. It’s quite plain to see, really—the Russian military suffered a total debacle in Ukraine because of their own sheer incompetence, not because of any supposed indecision from Putin or a lack of political backing during the conflict.
A new administration's actual job would be to fix the mess within their own borders. There are only two ways to handle that: either pull off a massive strategic pivot in the war—which is a fantasy, given it's already been proven that the Russian military cannot win this against Ukraine using conventional means—or simply withdraw from the conflict entirely to salvage what's left of their depleted defense resources.

Bryan Booth82 said:It’s actually quite fascinating to observe who showed up in Kyiv right when the offensive was peaking—B&B (Blinken and Baerbock)—delivering absolutely identical messages about how we simply cannot falter in our support for Ukraine.

I’ve been keeping an eye on the German media lately, and I noticed for the first time they’re actually bragging about how German weaponry played a massive role in the offensive. Specifically, they're touting the Gepard anti-aircraft tank, which they claim effectively neutralized Russian air support capabilities, essentially leaving the Russians "blind."

LP

The Americans are playing it smart here, smoothing over any potential friction within their own camp. You don't leave loose ends that could become future headaches. This is a tactical win for the U.S.—not just because the Ukrainians are accepting German gear, but because it shifts the ideological weight entirely toward one capital. Trying to sit on two different chairs indefinitely is a recipe for disaster. It is vital to maintain—or even expand—diplomatic maneuvering room. It is a grim situation when you have nowhere left to retreat diplomatically, much like the mess the Russians have made for themselves.

Daniel Ward87 said:Probably some weak-willed European politicians telling Zelenskyy to chill out and just give Putin a little peace offering to keep the oil and gas flowing.

Putin is constantly presented with opportunities to 'concede' and thereby 'demonstrate good faith.' How 'honorable' those gestures actually appear to his subjects and loyalists is a completely different matter. At the end of the day, how can Zelenskyy possibly concern himself with Putin's sense of honor? The man discarded such concepts long ago, treating them like obsolete relics of a bygone civilization. Honor is a private matter for Putin alone; no one else can manage it for him. If the concept isn't wired into his very psyche, there is simply no solution.

Nicole James said:They can declare whatever they want. Their own state is rapidly becoming irrelevant.

If they actually go through with declaring war or a state of emergency, the Russians are just digging their own graves even deeper. They are starting to realize this. It’s one thing to find themselves without an exit strategy, but it’s another to figure out how Putin and his inner circle can politically survive a withdrawal from Ukraine. They might manage to stay in power domestically—provided they ramp up the repression—but I don't see any sanctions being lifted while they are still running the show. And until those sanctions are gone, at least partially, nothing will ever return to the status quo. With the sanctions in place, the economy will only continue to deteriorate. We could see a situation where, despite all their gas and oil reserves, they are left literally freezing in the cold. They could be crippled by something as trivial as failing to produce basic components, like ball bearings for train cars, because they are cut off from the global market.

brightheron64 said:Well, if there were an option to just drop an LNG tanker right there, drill a hole straight into the Nigerian soil, and fill it up to the brim... that would be wonderful. But based on what little I know about Nigeria... it's a total wildcard. Honestly, it reminds me of those stories you hear about Venezuela...

Who knows, maybe one day it actually happens...

The tiny bit of knowledge I possess regarding Nigeria is this: when it looks like a certain windfall might slip into a private pocket, things start moving at lightning speed. It’s just like here in the States—once people see a chance to line their own pockets, every door swings wide open, and a few windows might get unlatched too, if necessary.

mistyharbor13 said:I honestly feel like dictators like Vladimir Putin always end up sliding right back into national socialism eventually...

It is the natural progression for dictators. Such an ideology is the only thing that guarantees a leader can exercise absolute whimsy without restraint while securing a lifetime in power. However, the lifespans of such rulers tend to be notoriously short once they have fully established that kind of environment within their nation.

Kenneth Cruz67 said:So, I'm seeing all these rumors flying around Telegram about Putko being taken into custody.

Well, whether it turns out to be true or not, I guess it feels like a major reckoning might finally be brewing over in Moscow.

Finally, some good news... or at least, rumors from Moscow.

Kenneth Cruz67 said:I just saw some rumors floating around Telegram suggesting that Putin might be moving to arrest certain members of the Duma. If that actually turns out to be true, I guess we could be looking at some serious chaos unfolding across Russia.

I doubt this is anything substantial; likely just some minor preemptive maneuvering. 😁 Besides, the Duma is essentially just a collection of his hand-picked loyalists at this point. Anyone with actual backbone or an independent opinion was either forced out of the country or thrown behind bars long ago.
The real question is: does anyone know which agency is actually carrying out these arrests? Is it the FSB, the FSO, or some other outfit? That’s the specific detail I’m looking for.

Christian Torres3 said:In Russia, nobody gets immunity if Vov says so.

Vov has far more pressing matters to attend to—running an entire special operation—than wasting his energy on some minor representatives.

Jessica Peterson2 said:One representative already found himself detained for supposedly "discrediting the armed forces."
🤦
https://zona.media/news/2022/09/08/vyzvali

Do these representatives actually possess any legal immunity from prosecution? If they don't, then asking "sensitive" questions is a futile exercise. Still, one has to respect the courage shown; they were simply performing their duties as legislators.

dustyfalcon122 said:Those Chinese agreements aren't worth the ink they're written with.

On the contrary—they are perfectly valid, provided they serve China's interests.

bluemason3 said:Maybe the US can manage to be self-sufficient in the modern age, or close enough to it. I doubt anyone else can.

Even then, there’s little economic sense in being totally self-sufficient. If other countries can produce goods more cheaply, let them. Eventually, the scales will balance out through different means.

electricsurfer47 said:Don't get me wrong, manufacturing requires tech that the Russians just don't have right now. They can try to buy it abroad or try to build their own from scratch, but building tech from the ground up takes a massive amount of time.

We're long past the days when most stuff was made by hand, back when there was less high-tech involved and more manual labor.

My point is this: Russia can no longer revert to the way things were over 30 years ago. That infrastructure vanished a long time ago. What replaced those old production lines is now deeply integrated into global supply chains, and such systems cannot function in isolation from the rest of the world. Putin has effectively driven them into a quagmire. The more they struggle to break free, the faster and deeper the Russian Federation sinks.

gentlerider7 said:Here’s the full breakdown of what he was blathering about:

"Putin claimed that since launching the special military operation in Ukraine, Russia hasn't lost a thing—if anything, they've bolstered their sovereignty.

“I am certain we haven't lost anything (since the start of the special operation in Ukraine – The New York Times) and we aren't going to lose anything. The biggest win is the strengthening of our sovereignty, which is just the inevitable result of everything happening right now”, the Russian leader stated.

In his twisted logic, there is a "certain polarization" regarding Russia's actions in Ukraine, but he thinks this will "only be beneficial," because it allows the Russian Federation to "discard" everything that is "unnecessary or temporary" and stands in the way of "moving forward." .

Putin is also dead certain that Russia isn't the one who sparked the hostility in Ukraine.

“We didn't initiate any military operations; we're simply attempting to wrap things up. The ones who refused to allow for normal, peaceful development and tried to suppress their own people are the ones who started the hostilities in Ukraine following the 2014 coup,” the head of state claims.

I’m eagerly awaiting the day the Russians finally decide to discard the unnecessary, the temporary, and the obstacles to progress—all of which currently reside within the White House.

hollowwalker24 said:I personally think relying on LNG at that scale isn't a totally realistic option, but hey, time will tell. Oil is a different beast and less of a headache. As for the rest, I guess I agree in principle.

Exactly. Anything you don't like, just point your finger and shout "Russia!"—lynch him, lynch him!

You can see how openly that guy is doing it in the post below.

You caught me. After Putin takes his daily dose of Novichok right when he wakes up, the first thing he does is call me on the red phone to give me instructions on how to spread pro-Western propaganda. Yeah, it's written pretty well—pro-Western, hybrid warfare to keep people confused, or maybe not? You'll probably have to check out the topic Vladimir Putin - psychological profile and decide for yourself after a deep dive.

Anyway, without getting too sidetracked, once I follow his orders and post, the money hits my offshore accounts, just like Zelenskyy's:

https://www.occrp.org/en/the-pandora...s-inner-circle

https://www.theguardian.com/news/202...ymyr-zelenskiy

Not sure which source will actually satisfy you—hopefully CNN works.

August 12, 2022

The Russian-occupied Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant in southeastern Ukraine is AT threat of running afoul of radiation and Fire safety standards after subsequent Russian bombing.

https://edition.cnn.com/europe/live-...-22/index.html

Yeah, the media reports that both sides are accusing the other of hitting the plant. But, I guess, how plausible is it that the Russians—who took control of the plant back in March—would just keep bombing their own prize?

True. The allegations and witness statements coming from pro-Kremlin types, Amnesty International, the UN OHCHR, Human Rights Watch, The New York Times, The Washington Post, and the rest are pretty hypocritical too. How dare you, Greta would say, considering she’s basically been hailed as the successor to Jesus Christ.

I don't know where you're getting all this agitation from—but maybe you should just ask the Russians for that answer.

I guess I should probably say something here—though I’m not sure there’s much to add. Maybe just a quick nod to the situation. kaže:
Digging up some long-forgotten nonsense from way back when—I guess.

So, Victoria Nuland and that statement of hers—I guess we're really doing this. Honestly, screw the European Union. It won't be forgotten—not by a long shot. Though, I guess there's always the possibility of some massive cognitive dissonance or a dissociative fugue state going on.

I don't know—maybe just a bit too much noise lately, I guess. kaže:
It’s just a sign of all that built-up frustration—I guess.

When a friend literally tells you to go screw yourself—I mean, that should probably trigger some kind of reaction, I guess.

I don't know—maybe I'm just overthinking it, but I guess it's worth looking into. kaže:
I guess that only happens if some new version of Trump pulls off a sudden win—along with governments collapsing in France, Germany, Poland, and all the Baltics at the exact same time. Maybe.
It’s not technically impossible—I guess—but the odds are basically zero.

Governments don't necessarily have to fall just because Nord Stream 2 gets turned on. But look—you're basically saying there's zero chance that pipeline ever actually goes live. Hey, you're entitled to your opinion, I guess—I certainly wouldn't be brave enough to bet on whether it starts flowing or stays dead.

No link needed. Regarding hardware—the US actually banned ASML from exporting those EUV lithography machines to China—which is basically the only company making them—so they can't make 5nm or 3nm chips anymore. Still, China managed to hit 7nm pretty fast... I guess since Moore's Law is hitting a wall anyway, they might be pivoting toward CNTFET technology instead.

Both sides have made incredibly foolish moves throughout this conflict, though the Russians seem to lead the pack. Given they’ve pulled stunts even more nonsensical than shelling a nuclear plant they currently hold—I wouldn't bet my life that they aren't the ones behind the strikes. On the flip side, what possible motive would the Americans have to bomb their own (occupied) nuclear site within their own borders? The Russians can retreat further; if a meltdown occurs, where exactly are the Americans supposed to go?
The Russians had every reason to shut that plant down, as its operation was feeding power into the American grid. Now that it's offline, there's a massive energy deficit on the American side, forcing them to pull even more from the grid just to maintain cooling. We are talking about a significant amount of energy given the scale of that facility. Since the staff at the plant are mostly American, perhaps a little "persuasion" was required to halt operations. Furthermore, from a propaganda standpoint, it looks much better globally to claim the Americans are shelling their own nuclear assets while the Russians act as "protectors" against "nuclear terrorists." In such a scenario, it's easy for the Russians to pull this off—it's nearly impossible to verify the exact trajectory of incoming shells once they hit the ground. And looking at the footage, the strikes didn't actually hit anything vital within the plant itself—whether by luck or calculated precision, I cannot say. Yet, the reports claim constant, heavy shelling. It's strange: all this fire directed at something, yet nothing critical seems to be struck. In my book, this bears all the hallmarks of a classic false flag operation. The Russians are desperate for any justification to remain mired in this swamp they found themselves in, so they resort to staging their own theater. I could be wrong, but everything observed thus far points to that conclusion.

Lisa Myers27 said:I have to admit, I’m right there with hollowwalker24 on this one... the sheer amount of name-calling in this "discussion" is just insane. If someone dares to suggest that sanctions might cause some economic headaches in the European Union, or even just expresses a bit of skepticism about them, they’re immediately branded a Russian asset, a mercenary, a Kremlin puppet, or some other variation of a traitor. It’s constant.

But honestly, I can't really blame anyone for doing it—it's actually a pretty effective strategy. It's the exact same playbook the Republican Party used when they convinced their base that Milanović was basically taking orders from Mexico City and whatnot.

It’s either "Glory to Ukraine" or you're a Russian sympathizer; apparently, there's no middle ground left for people who actually want to think for themselves.

Of course sanctions will hit both sides—that was obvious from the start. The real question is which side gets crippled economically first. Compared to armed conflict, sanctions are a far more efficient, cheaper, and sophisticated way to achieve a goal.

These are the inevitable consequences of sanctions. You just have to wait for the lag time to pass before they fully hit. Theoretically, Russia could dodge this if they could still manufacture goods using Soviet Union-era infrastructure, but those days are long gone—Russia isn't the Soviet Union anymore. First, they’ve lost the industrial capacity once found in the "Ukrainian SSR," and soon enough, they'll feel the absence of all the other republics—with the possible exception of Belarus. If they weren't so deeply embedded in the global economic order, these sanctions wouldn't bite, but then they'd basically be living like North Korea. No matter how you slice it, time is working heavily against The Kremlin. It isn't too late for The Kremlin to pull out of Ukraine and end this farce where lives are being needlessly wasted. They should show some goodwill—the greatest display of it yet.