William Anderson5 said:Vladimir Putin clearly views this as a temporary setback that Russia can weather—one that will eventually trigger energy crises across the European Union. He expects that once the public starts feeling the squeeze, the unified political front regarding Ukraine and Russia will fracture by next spring, leading to a normalization of relations...
But that's just wishful thinking. Putin doesn't seem to realize he’s underestimated the EU (and why wouldn't he, considering the most powerful politician in the EU was the naive Merkel until recently?), nor does he grasp how the EU actually perceives this conflict. He might even be deluding himself into believing that Europe doesn't truly want to support Ukraine and is only doing so because the USA is forcing their hand...
First off, European nations will politically survive the winter. There won't be a policy shift regarding Russian aggression because everyone in the West understands that this conflict is fundamentally about the survival of the entire democratic structure within the EU. Put simply, if Ukraine falls, the conflict could easily expand, potentially leading to the collapse of the EU, NATO, and the very foundation of Western democracy. Even if that doesn't happen, it would result in a massive expansion of Russian influence across Europe, and I don't need to explain what that means for us here...
Second, Russia cannot sustain these kinds of relations with the West in the long run. Most of the Russian population looks toward Europe; they see themselves as a European people. All this talk about pivoting to Asia, BRICS, or China is mostly nonsense. Pivoting an entire nation in that direction takes decades. Once Russians realize the sheer scale of that undertaking, they'll likely bail and head back toward Europe. It's possible Putin envisions Russia as such a powerhouse that the rest of the world will naturally gravitate toward them without any effort, but that's a distant fantasy. Long-term, Russia's strength will continue to wane, not just against the EU and China, but against India and others as well, leaving Russia unable to exert any real influence...
Angela Merkel wasn't naive; I suspect she made a different mistake entirely. She assumed Putin viewed the world through a German lens: business first. When business is done, money is made, which supposedly brings prosperity. In Germany, doing business brings prosperity to the whole state; in the Federal Republic, it might benefit a smaller circle, but it remains interesting for them (and acceptable to Germans, provided the Russians are doing well too). However, Putin isn't someone who settles for mere prosperity. He demands more, and the more he gets, the more he craves. There is no limit to those ambitions unless they are checked by force.
For the European Union and the West in general, this is an elegant solution: the Ukrainians fight and die for their own sovereignty and freedom, while simultaneously achieving the ultimate goal of halting Putin's aggression against everything he currently deems weaker than himself.
It is difficult to say what the Russian citizens want right now. Likely, they first want the senseless war to stop—the one where their own sons are dying. I agree that the fantasy of "the East" as a future prospect for Russia is a step backward; the European Union and the West remain the certain path forward for them. This version of the West and its standards is completely unacceptable to Putin, because his system has no place left in the West. Yes, such leaders existed in the West before, but Putin's politics are roughly a century out of date.