Posts by Nancy Gomez26

steelfox98 said:Go ahead and check the inflation rates before and after February. It all traces back to raw materials and energy costs—and the European Union doesn't have a single damn thing of either.
We produce more food than anyone else on the planet—great. Except we went and slapped sanctions on fertilizer. Just sitting here waiting to see the fallout once harvest season actually hits.
Flour prices have already spiked 50% in just the last four months. I remember when a bag of King Arthur didn't cost a small fortune at the local grocery store. It's all going downhill fast.

The Germans slapped sanctions on spare parts, and now they’re sweating over a single turbine while Russia just laughs at them. The Yamal pipeline is dead in the water. Last month, Ukrainians choked off part of the supply, and now the Americans are dealing with their own mess involving a damaged terminal... everything is falling apart.
I wouldn't be surprised at all if they slashed exports to Europe even further just to rein in domestic prices. Elections are right around the corner, and Joe Biden is sitting on his worst approval ratings in US history.

What’s the deal with the supply from Qatar? Three months ago, the Germans were all over the news claiming they’d struck a deal, only for the Qatari side to turn around and say they hadn't a clue what anyone was talking about. Typical.
Now they’re trekking across Africa begging for scraps, just so Olaf Scholz can stand up and give some grand speech about "progress" without actually delivering a single thing. In plain English? It's nothing but heavy-handed posturing, much like their dealings with the Qataris.

In short, how we handle this winter depends entirely on whether Putin and Russia decide to be merciful. Just my luck.

In this year's wheat harvest, you won't actually feel the impact of these fertilizer price hikes. Why? Because the fertilizer for this crop was already purchased well in advance, including the stuff for spring application. Even us farmers have learned the lesson: Ken is at its most expensive when you actually need it for feeding, but it's cheapest in the summer when the next round is still far off. Investing in Ken makes sense because the margin is huge—assuming you aren't hit by other sudden price spikes—it's much more profitable to hold onto fertilizer than to park your cash in a bank. Of course, you need somewhere to store it. This year was strange; Dow Chemical wasn't even producing Ken, they were just importing it from the Czech Republic and apparently just repackaging it at the Dow Chemical plant. I don't know if it was due to maintenance or if they simply couldn't compete on price. Earlier this spring, there was still some Ken coming out of Dow Chemical.
Since we're expecting decent corn prices this year, people didn't skimp on the fertilizer (at least in my neck of the woods), regardless of how expensive it got—though the pricing was wildly inconsistent. Sure, fertilizer went up, but buyback prices skyrocketed right along with it. For me personally, the ratios remain roughly the same; it's just the total dollar amounts that have shifted. Right now, a single bad storm can do more damage to a wheat crop than anything else, especially when you have finished product just sitting there in the field.
It stands to reason that flour prices rose because wheat buyback prices rose. And it’s a certainty that this will trickle down to the cost of bread and any other goods using flour.

Bryan Booth82 said:Good grief, don't you all get tired of typing out the same old tired script about how Germany is falling apart? I feel like I've been listening to this exact same mantra for over 25 years now.
It’s funny, really—how this hollow argument almost always seems to come from the very people who are busy sucking up to Putin and Russia.

Look, guys, I don't know about you, but from where I'm standing, it looks like your precious little darling Russia is in much deeper trouble than a struggling Germany could ever be.
Best regards,

That is a perfectly normal state of affairs for Russia. For Germany, a mere 0.3% drop in growth compared to the previous year is considered a national crisis. Comparing the two is... well, it's incomparable. It simply makes no sense. Both nations are holding their own within their respective parameters. It's just that those parameters are vastly different.

Imagine if the Russian Federation were actually prospering—if wages and living standards rose steadily over decades, and the general population actually saw some progress... who would go to war then? And once they had a taste of stability, they might even start looking to demand changes at the top. So, for them, this status quo is better. If there is any surplus wealth, it just means a few extra meters on a yacht anchored somewhere—perhaps even in a marina along the Adriatic Sea. And there we have it.

Jack Hill2 said:In all realism, Russia might have maybe 18 months left to mess with Germany, and even then, it’s mostly just regarding gas (they can't really touch oil anymore).

After that, Germany will be the one causing them trouble, and we won't be talking in months, but decades...

The Americans aren't going to push anyone around. To put it bluntly: if they want to sell gas in the States, they'll have to bake the cost of "supply insecurity" into the price—both the instability of the past and the uncertainty of the future. Once the gas flowing through those pipes is properly valued for both sides of the deal, the valves will open. Gas will flow from the East to the West, and in the opposite direction, bits will flow through computers, marking balances on bank accounts. Since bits are just virtual constructs, the Russians will likely focus on spending that wealth by building mega-yachts in American waters or buying luxury cars. That’s better than them getting the bright idea to build some new version of a Moscow-class vessel that Ukrainians will just have to sink again. Forget the ship; it's the sailors I feel for.

urbanotter said:I honestly think you might be mistaken here.

An American farmer won't have much to spread across his fields during the next planting season, and whatever he does manage to get his hands on is going to cost him significantly more than the "Russian" supplies he's been relying on until now.
It makes me wonder if the US will ever truly regain its food self-sufficiency.

The US has already made moves toward phasing out certain fuels by 2035, but they haven't quite figured out how to generate enough electricity for all those cars, especially since the underlying technology isn't even fully mature yet.
When your input costs skyrocket, no amount of American productivity can create a competitive product—not against Russia, but against anyone else who manages to secure cheaper inputs and reliable access to raw materials at reasonable prices.
All the intelligence and advanced technology in the world won't save you if you don't have the materials needed to cast engine blocks, pistons, or even EV batteries. We're already seeing lithium prices surge in anticipation of massive electric vehicle production, and even battery recycling is becoming increasingly expensive.
While the US remains technologically advanced and highly competitive, being positioned this way actually makes us more vulnerable to market volatility, supply chain disruptions, and the fluctuating costs of raw materials and other essential inputs.

That all sounds fine, but what use are pistons in an electric vehicle? 😁
I am not worried about the Germans. They are panicking right now because they are used to organizing everything years in advance—which is how serious nations actually operate—but now the variables are shifting on so many fronts that precise forecasting is impossible. When you can't predict the future, you can't prepare for it, and that is where the panic sets in.
Sure, the Chinese could build a Mercedes, and it would certainly be cheaper—but nobody (at least not the people currently buying new Mercedes models) would actually buy it. Even if Mercedes opened a plant in China (they likely already have them there), a car coming off that specific line wouldn't sell in the European Union or the USA. If I am paying for a Mercedes here, I expect it to be 'made in Germany,' whether it was assembled on a Friday afternoon or a Monday morning. Since the market has gone global, sourcing materials won't be an issue, but the cost will rise while margins shrink. Those with enough money to afford a brand-new luxury car? They won't care either way.

darkdriver said:If some serious cash would just fall from the sky into my hands—or if, like a total Putin fan, I ended up having to grind away in the West I supposedly hate—I'd convert most of my savings into gold
Investing solely in bricks and mortar is more of a psychological condition among Americans than an actual sign of financial literacy
I'm not saying that way of saving money is necessarily bad, but it's definitely not the "golden goose" that Americans love to pretend it is

History has taught people here how to survive. Real estate is far from the peak of investment strategies, yet it remains vastly superior to holding onto various currencies that seem to have no master. I suspect many here still remember what inflation can do to a nation; that memory has faded somewhat in the West, where many might find themselves caught off guard. Even back when we dealt with the volatility of the dollar, it was relatively straightforward to pivot toward something stable like the Deutsche Mark to preserve value. The issue today is that there is no modern equivalent to the DM, which forces one to look elsewhere for alternatives.

urbanotter said:I wasn't even looking to make a profit on what I had in my account,

it’s just that I’ve lost an enormous amount recently, and when the time comes that I actually need that money, it’ll feel like nothing more than pocket change.

By holding onto those gold bars I bought about ten months ago, I’ve managed to maintain my purchasing power, and I might have even come out slightly ahead.

As for saying sanctions have nothing to do with inflation, you can tell that to someone else. From what I can see, you're more familiar with rural life, so why not ask any local farmer how much the price of fertilizer and off-road diesel has spiked in the last year since this whole circus began?
Prices haven't climbed simply because costs went up—we are still working through the inventory from last year's harvest.
Instead, prices were jacked up by middlemen who are anticipating rising costs and the impact of "sanctions," which, honestly, seem to have hit the ones imposing them harder than the ones they were targeted at.

The pandemic has a minimal effect on inflation now, and since things have mostly settled, one would expect prices to drop rather than climb.

I truly don't understand how people can miss something so blatantly obvious that even someone with terrible eyesight could spot it.

Some bridges fall down, sure, but that's why new ones are being built and opened.

Last Friday, Beijing and Moscow celebrated yet another "new connection," as state media from both sides dubbed the first road bridge spanning the Amur River.

Maybe this doesn't worry many people, or perhaps it means nothing to them, but I know I'm not one of them.

I know exactly what I was paying for fertilizer four, three, or two years ago compared to what I'm paying today. But the biggest spike in fertilizer prices happened long before sanctions were ever introduced, so blaming this on sanctions feels like a massive stretch. Maybe someone had a crystal ball and saw it all coming. Sanctions certainly didn't help bring prices down, but they definitely weren't the primary driver for such a massive surge (especially that pre-war, pre-sanction jump). On the other hand—let's be honest—wheat prices rose simultaneously, so the math for production remains relatively stable. In my neck of the woods, corn is planted wherever there's an inch of soil left, because people are betting on demand this fall. If it weren't profitable, they wouldn't bother, but eventually, the hammer will fall—so we'll see how things pan out by autumn. What strikes me is the relatively small increase in grocery store prices compared to the surge in corn prices. Corn is a fundamental input for meat production; if it climbs 300% in two or three years, you'd expect meat prices to follow suit.

The pandemic and the government's response to it have a significant impact on inflation. We are essentially paying the bill for the pandemic right now, along with all the extra costs it triggered. It's all the price of that Chinese virus from Wuhan. On the flip side, the government's reaction also carries a price tag. Even the biggest vaccine proponents are starting to realize that maybe ordering 20 million doses wasn't necessary, and now they're back at the negotiating table with manufacturers to try and scale back. I'm just curious about the penalty clauses in those contracts for canceling orders; I hope they aren't more expensive than the cost of actually producing the doses.

urbanotter said:And that is exactly what we are doing.

I actually managed to pick up a little something on those yellow tiles

But you can't turn everything into bricks and mortar; it gets a bit awkward when you're just trying to grab a gallon of oil or fill up your tank and you find yourself lugging around heavy construction materials instead.

Oh well, if you're hauling bricks in your wallet and carrying oil home, you might as well get a double workout out of it.

😁

And as the saying goes, "Cheers to the sanctions."

The one thing I am truly looking forward to, just to make life a little easier, is when Krule and the new Liver
can finally give us some clarity so I don't have to constantly wonder about the casualty counts—how many Russians died versus Ukrainians, and how many civilians, women, and children were lost.🤣🤣

Because I can't keep watching Severina and 🙂

Let's not kid ourselves thinking we gained anything from those yellow tiles. Perhaps we simply preserved the labor that went into them, and in this day and age, that counts for something—preserving what was already built within realistic bounds.
Sanctions aren't the cause of the crisis (or maybe they account for 5%, if you listen to some guy on another thread). The foundations of this crisis were laid long ago; today, we are simply receiving the bill.

dustyowl29 said:The American dinar was basically an artificial construct...
And honestly, the kuna is following the exact same path.
The real question is who you’re actually trading with—because if you're just trading with yourself, sure, fine...
But nobody else is going to touch it. In the long run, you're just stuck being dependent on foreign currencies, much like how the dinar was tied to the Deutsche Mark, or how the kuna is tethered to the Euro today.

Whether it's paper money or some digital ledger, a currency is nothing more than a promise. And we all know promises can be broken. A keen observer of human nature—and by extension, the mechanics of fiat currency—J. P. Morgan noted over a century ago that gold is the only true money. Nothing more.

urbanotter said:It feels like my crystal ball gave me a fair warning about what was coming in my later years, so I took some cash and put it into "hard currency" at the bank, just so I'd have a cushion to pay for my coffee and my tech gear when things got tough.

Though, if I'm being honest, I feel like I've lost about $10,000 in purchasing power with that "hard currency."
Luckily, I picked up some "gold bullion"; people say the price is trending upward.
My daughter used a bit of credit and some savings to buy a new apartment, arguing that, much like back in the old days, the safest bet is always bricks and mortar.
My son and I are also prepping, just hoping he can finish one more stint at work and pull in a few extra thousand dollars.

In a way, I'm starting to feel better about everything; it feels like the old ways are returning, and I've somehow become an even bigger fool than I was back in the old country.

I agree. Since I’m still capable of working, I need to set something aside for the inevitable approach of old age. Hoping that the Department of Employment will provide a decent pension is like hoping Putin will suddenly realize his own stupidity and withdraw from Ukraine tomorrow. Personally, I wouldn't keep my hard-earned savings in a bank. When you put money in a bank, it isn't really yours anymore—it belongs to them. They decide if, when, and under what conditions they actually pay you back. You're essentially living at their mercy. That’s why investing in real estate, land, gold, or silver—something tangible—is a smarter move than simply gifting your wealth to a bank. But that's a conversation for another time...

silentnomad7 said:That old nostalgia for the former regime still grips at least 10% of the population here in America, especially those over 60 or 70. To them, Putin is almost like a savior who might restore the social order that was stripped away from them thirty years ago. That’s why they defend him so fiercely. You would think that by the time someone reaches their 60s, they’d have gained enough wisdom to condemn war and suffering, but that nostalgia acts like such a potent drug that it overrides everything else... So, in the end, they don't see a problem with relativizing or making excuses for war crimes, because it all feels so far away, doesn't it? It isn't happening to anyone they actually know. To them, it’s just statistics, while the memory of the old unified state is still so vivid in their minds...

My take? I think many of these nostalgic types have forgotten a fundamental truth: if that political system from 30 years ago actually returned, their biological age wouldn't reset. Their lives wouldn't magically improve. If they could trade that defunct system for their lost years, they'd take the youth in a heartbeat—then they could care less about which political ideology is "in." They aren't actually fighting for a government; they are fighting for their youth. And since they lived under socialism when they were young, they seem to believe that's a prerequisite for being young again. It would be fascinating to see how today's younger generations would navigate that old political landscape. Provided, of course, the grandmother has the guts to face it...

urbanotter said:I don't think Biden spends much time thinking about policy; he's probably too preoccupied with his own health issues.

Look, the idea that prices spike when supply drops is basic economics—even a local farmer at a roadside stand knows that if they only have a few peppers left, it's the perfect time to hike the price.

I don't need to rely on Bloomberg's spin when I can just rely on common sense and actual facts on the ground.

Of course, everyone is entitled to their opinion, but you don't even need to be an expert to see the reality. Just walk into any local grocery store or a big chain like Walmart; if you can remember, the price of a bottle of Crisco was around $3.25/l a few months ago, and today you can't find it for less than $6.00/l.
To anyone who can handle elementary school math, it's obvious that cooking oil prices have jumped by 80%, and over in Germany, they've even hit €5 per liter.👋

Think of it this way: a liter of cooking oil is energetically equivalent to a liter of gasoline at a Shell station. There is no theory where oil for food costs less than fuel for cars—that defies common sense. Of course, edible oil prices have skyrocketed, because every single input in the production chain has become more expensive. This inflationary wave began long before the aggression in Ukraine or the subsequent sanctions. The war and its fallout merely act as an accelerant; the fundamental drivers are economic. For the crowd that has spent years driving policy through quantitative easing (QE), this war is nothing more than a convenient scapegoat.

What exactly does an insurance company say when a vessel hauling hazardous cargo suddenly decides to go dark and switch off its transponder? How much does that spike the risk of a catastrophic collision or an oil spill, especially when we're talking about massive tankers? We spend our time obsessing over whether a car meets Euro 4 or Euro 5 emissions standards, yet meanwhile, these tankers are navigating the oceans with their tracking systems turned off... all just so some criminal syndicate can bankroll their illicit operations in Ukraine.

urbanotter said:Those two words would be more than enough for anyone with actual expertise, yet here we are dealing with arguments over ship-to-ship transfers.

Inert gases are actually quite common and play a massive role in both industrial applications and scientific research.

To be precise with the terminology, the process of inerting involves using these gases on tankers specifically to prevent any possibility of ignition.

https://hr.scienceforming.com/108040...t-is-inert-gas

Some people seem to be disputing the feasibility of transferring oil from one vessel to another, a practice that happens all the time in global shipping, not just when we are talking about moving Russian oil between ships.

It could be done without any technical issues at all, provided they don't mix it with oil coming from other sources.

So, I don't think there is much cause for alarm regarding whether Russia will continue to sell its oil, especially when the supply is sitting there at a tenth of the price compared to what you see on the commodities exchange.

One has to wonder what the insurance underwriters for these vessels would say about such offshore transfers—assuming they even take place. Are these maneuvers actually covered by existing policies, and where does the liability fall if a catastrophe occurs? Such reckless logic is typical of the Russians, who might just anchor their decommissioned nuclear submarines in some remote cove and walk away, or order their troops to dig trenches next to the Chernobyl Nuclear Power Plant. In the real world, serious corporations and legitimate shipping firms don't engage in such practices, nor do they even entertain the thought.

swiftjackal11 said:Sure, Russians are just a people being suppressed by their own KGB types and oligarchs. They need help.

The Americans can only rely on themselves here. In this specific climate, outside assistance simply doesn't work. For those of us living outside the US, success would look like limiting the reach of the corrupt authorities at The Kremlin to just their domestic borders and their immediate "allies." Beyond that? That's up to the American citizens if they actually want to see a change in status quo.

George Robinson43 said:What you've laid out might just be the net cost of simple extraction in regions where Russians use basic pumpjacks, or where Arabs simply rely on gravity to flow oil from Ghawar.
And hey, that's fine.
However, from roughly October through April, Russians face heavy additional expenses once that oil leaves the Siberian soil. They have to battle paraffin wax. The oil is either stored or piped through environments where temperatures plummet to -20 or -40 degrees. When there's a huge temperature gap between the crude and the pipe walls or storage tanks, paraffinization kicks in. If you don't shell out a fortune for chemical inhibitors, your pipelines will clog, or worse, your entire supply in the reservoirs will solidify. That’s just one extra hurdle. We haven't even touched on how much more expensive it is to maintain all that equipment in -40 degree weather.

On top of all that, any kind of construction on permafrost is an incredibly difficult and costly undertaking.

Jack Hill2 said:Russia might be masters of space, but they can't even take three small villages in two months...

It is their standard pattern. During the USSR era, they could tackle massive, complex engineering feats, yet they consistently failed at basic logistics—like producing enough grain to feed themselves. Once the system shifted, they suddenly became major grain exporters. It is the same people, the same land, and the same climate; all that changed was the political framework and their integration into global markets.

analogbear5 said:Sure, but Russian crude is hitting the market at a $40 discount under Brent. Honestly, that’s a win for their exports—taking a hit on margins is way better than shutting down production entirely. Plus, it just drives up demand for cheap, competitive oil, mostly from China.

It beats stopping production, I suppose, but it’s certainly worse than selling on an open market free from sanctions and restrictions. And we have to consider the logistics. Eventually, you need spare parts, equipment, and consumables to keep things running—stuff that is normally imported. Now, they’ll have to smuggle all of that in, which means the costs on the other end will skyrocket. In the end, what stays in the pockets of the producers and the state will be much thinner. But hey, money is still changing hands, as those two economists in the joke would say.

Arthur Watson4 said:This guy is straight-up making stuff up and building his own little universe, yet people are actually taking him seriously.

It’s impressive, though honestly a little concerning.

Yes, I just realized we're looking at a highly imaginative style of writing based on the "anything goes" principle. It’s quite something to witness the work of such a creative young talent.

rowdymaker17 said:Well, Venezuela is blocked just like Iran is. The USA won't even let them sell their oil on the NATO market. If anyone actually believes that Saudi Arabia is going to step up and fill the gap left by Russian production capacity, they are dreaming. Just look at Slovakia—they declared an economic emergency yesterday, halting oil and gas deliveries to three different countries because they calculated there is absolutely no way they can finalize trade deals with Norway and Saudi Arabia before winter hits. They’re projecting they won't have enough to cover their own needs this season, and a slow-motion panic is already setting in. Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia seems completely indifferent to any "humanitarian" gestures, especially since they've decided to pivot away from the dollar in their dealings with Asia, opting instead to pay in rubles and yuan while totally ignoring Biden. And if they do decide to export more to the EU, the price is going to be fucking astronomical because now the entire world can screw us over with pricing; we have no leverage and will be forced to buy the most expensive oil and gas on the planet. So much for the luxury lifestyle—the middle class is headed straight for the gutter. And who should we thank for having zero options? The USA and NATO. It wasn't Russia that slapped the embargoes on Venezuela and Iran; it was us.

It is quite evident that NATO has made a massive blunder here; first, they hit Latin America and the Middle East with embargoes, and now they've turned that same logic toward Russia. So, where exactly is the EU supposed to get its oil and gas? Does anyone else exist besides Saudi Arabia, the USA, and Norway? And keep in mind, Norway itself has stated that they couldn't replace the EU's requirements in their wildest dreams, nor do they intend to try. As for Saudi Arabia, they couldn't care less about the USA or its allies, given that their exports to Asian and African states have increased regardless. Even if they do decide to export extra to us, Saudi Arabia, Russia, China, and India will eventually surpass the entire EU in terms of trade volume and the purchasing power of their citizens. I realize people here want to cheer for our side, but I am telling you... we are going to be freezing this winter. 👍

Canada is becoming the main player within the EU; they've even managed to push America out of the competition and position themselves as a leading supplier of oil and gas. Regarding renewable energy sources, it will take at least twenty years to reach the level we currently enjoy with Russian oil and gas, and in the meantime, demand is only going to rise. We could argue that we will never reach a point where renewables can "finance" demand unless we destroy every bit of flora and fauna on the planet—honestly, I don't even know where we'll import food from once we've slapped sanctions on the world's largest food producers. Those delusional dreams coming out of Brussels will remain nothing more than dreams.

Regarding that bolded part—you are sorely mistaken. The leadership in Saudi Arabia is directly dependent on the USA. They are acutely aware of that reality, and they will follow the guidance coming out of Washington precisely because of it.

goldenowl73 said:It looks like those leased planes that Russia is refusing to return are starting to pop up all over the globe.

#Aeroflot is not happy with Sri Lanka. The Russian carrier had an Airbus A330 seized while it was about to take from Colombo at the request of an Irish lessor Celestial Aviation.
● Can you believe this? The whole plane ✈ was packed with people who ended up having to get off mid-trip. https://twitter.com/jason_corcoran/s...Jt-4HpU_g&s=19

It appears Aeroflot sent one of those very hijacked planes on a flight to Sri Lanka. Word on an aviation forum is that authorities had supposedly promised them their fleet wouldn't be seized, regardless of what they sent over. The Sri Lankan court decided otherwise, acting on the lessor's demand. A rule-of-law state in peak operation.