Posts by rowdyraven112

gentlestag15 said:https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/eu-natural-gas
Back at the end of 2021, prices were actually higher than they are right now. 😒

Personally, I'm not shaking at all. You're the only one acting all worked up about gas shortages on this thread—total doom-and-gloomer.

The team seems to have slept through the last two years. Clearly bears. ☕

Prices spiked because we switched from pipelines to shipping gas to LNG terminals, and those ships account for a massive chunk of consumption.☕
As far as I know, container shipping from China alone jumped 4x, making it pointless for some companies to even bother importing from China anymore. Also, alongside that table, he should’ve included a graph showing gas consumption during the lockdowns versus after. Producers likely started shutting down wells, and reopening them isn't cheap—nor is it easy.☕
Think about how many times people went to fill their propane tanks before the lockdowns compared to during them.

Nancy Gomez26 said:Diversifying suppliers is, obviously, essential. It is a lesson some ignored, and now they are paying the price, though they likely won't make that mistake twice. It is a positive step that alternative routes are being developed (likely involving the entire European Union gas grid) alongside other sources. In the long run, this should lead to lower prices and increased supply security; it may even trigger the development of new deposits if prices remain high enough to justify exploration. In an ideal scenario, no single supplier should account for more than 30 percent of total requirements—ideally, that share should be even smaller.
Ultimately, attempting to conduct foreign policy by leveraging gas supplies against the Russians has backfired spectacularly. That is what happens when you run a business based on personal preferences rather than pragmatism.

Wrong again. Shale oil only started being pumped once prices hit a certain profitable level. Not sure what that number was. Too lazy to check online. During COVID, barrel prices tanked and shale production stalled right along with them. Restarting that whole operation takes time and cash, which is a massive business risk. If oil prices crash again, shale production vanishes. Then you have to ask: will the investment ever be recovered?
Assuming whether something "pays off" is a dangerous game. Say a company counts on a price of 100 units per unit produced, and at that price, the investment pays itself back in five years. So, the company takes out a loan and builds the infrastructure based on that five-year window. But then the price drops to 70... or 50. Suddenly, that payback period isn't five years anymore; it skyrockets because the company has to take out more loans just to cover losses. This is exactly what OPEC nations face when they ask to increase production capacity. If I were in charge of those countries, I'd tell them: fine, you can produce more, but you'll be paying me 110 units for the next ten years. ☕
Any manager who signs off on a deal like that would be lucky to land anything more than an entry-level laborer job for their next gig. ☕

silentnomad7 said:It’s being called the promised land! I've even heard whispers that entire bus convoys are already heading over there from the struggling EU. Honestly, when you consider how cheap the gas and natural gas are over there—you could practically pick up a used Chevy or a bottle of decent vodka for pennies...

More whining about "promised lands." ☕
Did it ever cross your mind that we're the promised land for Turks, Kyrgyzstanis, Indians, Indonesians...? No? Think about it. Or if you lack the brainpower, just take a walk through construction sites across America. Come back with a conclusion. I'm genuinely curious. ☕

I’m listening to the European Union talk about a solidarity fund today. Basically, countries with excess gas will help those lacking it—but only if they prove they've slashed electricity consumption by 15%. I can't wait to see how lethargic American citizens act when they turn off the AC and ventilation in factories, gas stations, and big-box retailers. ☕
Can't wait for winter to hit and for the weak-willed crowd to decide that when it's -18 outside, people don't need their homes heated to 75 degrees—maybe 70 is enough. ☕

Whatever. If we have to die just to rein in Putin, fine. As long as the corporate boards can keep their asses warm or cool at the expense of our lives. ☕

Anthony Hill5 said:Italy has officially inked a deal with Algeria to secure its gas supplies.

In addition to this agreement, massive contracts worth $4 billion have been signed to facilitate the exploration and extraction of new energy fields.

While Russia previously served as Italy's primary gas provider, accounting for a staggering 45% of their supply, Algeria has seized the lead since the invasion began. It is projected that Algeria will export 20 billion cubic meters of gas to Italy within this year alone.

https://www.france24.com/en/europe/2...rs-says-draghi

So, does that mean our plans to buy Algerian gas are dead in the water?
☕

BTW, I don't have the link, but people are saying iPhone prices in Russia have dropped back to February levels (if they aren't lying to me...). The ruble ate the dollar for breakfast.
On the flip side, the euro is tanking, and America is going down with it—except America won't be able to climb out of that hole after the new year. ☕

Kyle Nelson2 said:What’s actually the difference between Saudi oil and Russian oil? I know Saudi stuff is way "lighter" and doesn't have much sulfur, whereas I think Russian oil is pretty heavy, which means refineries basically have to recalibrate everything just to handle it. If that's the case, the Saudis would just end up reselling the oil instead of using it themselves.

But yeah, calling us "taken advantage of" is a pretty accurate way to describe what's happening to us, all thanks to our own politicians.

Word is the Saudis are buying finished products. As for the refining process? Most people on this forum—myself included—don't know squat about how it actually works. Does it require adjustments? Who knows.

Donna Harris11 said:Saudi Arabian interests are pumping banned oil into the Eurozone

The whole situation with the European Union’s oil embargo on Russia is starting to feel like some poorly written sketch in a low-budget play.
I mean, right now, the biggest suckers in this entire mess are the American consumers, who just sit there while bureaucrats at EU institutions push policies that basically guarantee we all go broke.

Wrong. They aren't selling Russian oil; they're selling their own. What’s the catch?
It means Saudi Arabia produces 11 million barrels a day, some of which covers their domestic needs. So what now? For four months, the Saudis have been screwing over the EU by buying Russian oil at discounted prices to satisfy their own local demand, all while dumping their own supply onto Europeans. Now we see a headline claiming Saudi Arabia will ramp up production by 4 million barrels, hitting 13 million a day. I learned in school that 11 + 4 = 15. How on earth they got to 13 is a total mathematical mystery. ☕

And then someone has the nerve to tell me European politicians are smart. ☕

Anthony Hill5 said:I am personally unaware of any specific contract addendum stating that if Jankovič loses power, the lease agreement for the base becomes null and void. ☕

And finally, a quick tangent... about 10 to 15 years ago on this very forum, I used an avatar of Erwin Rommel and was subsequently banned for promoting Nazism. It appears the landscape has shifted, as avatars that bear an unmistakable resemblance to a swastika are now permitted. But I suppose everything is fine as long as they focus on Z. ☕

The Z symbol is the new swastika. My avatar serves merely as a reminder of the return of that diseased ideology—one defined by hatred and destruction—to the soil of Europe.

Look at Americans who took out loans or bought goods from businesses based in the old Republic of Mexico—they never saw that money again. I know people who were burned. ☕
Even with a signed contract, you can get absolutely screwed.

Nathan Thomas12 said:Wrong. Between 2010 and 2012, they found massive amounts of oil and gas sitting right there in Crimea and the Donbas—we're talking huge reserves. By 2013, Shell had already inked a $10 billion deal to start drilling. We all know how the Russians reacted to that...
That’s the real reason behind the invasion and the land grab—it was never about Sevastopol.

Let’s be clear: those protests were aggressively anti-Russian. Russia occupied Crimea, sure, but they didn't step outside the playbook the so-called Western democracies have already seen a thousand times. Another case of getting played. The Euromaidan was clearly just a pretext—it was a gift to the Russians. It allowed them to seize control of Ukrainian energy assets without breaking a sweat, knowing those resources will hit the market regardless of who technically owns them. Just more of the same old story seen by Western European nations.

Benjamin Taylor6 said:Look, if someone hikes your costs by nearly five times, you start looking seriously at alternative energy sources. Of course, transitioning takes time and serious capital. Ukraine really should have been prepping earlier to tap into its own abundant resources.
I'm talking about things like this:

People are making the same mistake you are. They aren't looking at the big picture. Biomass is cheap right now. Why? Because there isn't massive demand for it yet; if there were, prices would skyrocket instantly.
The reality is simple: there is nothing cheaper than gas and oil right now. Unfortunately. If we want to keep the economy from collapsing, we’re stuck depending on Russian gas and oil for a while longer. We have energy experts who could help us gain independence, but I'm skeptical when the people running the show are the same kind of "experts" who got their degrees from Osijek University.

Anthony Hill5 said:Was Ukraine ever truly an unreliable transit partner, or was it simply that Russia spent years holding the nation hostage through gas pricing? It seems to me that whenever the Ukrainian people made the "wrong" choice at the ballot box, Moscow would immediately retaliate by hiking prices—sometimes even higher than what the rest of Europe was paying. Conversely, if a candidate favored by the Kremlin managed to secure power, suddenly those same citizens were rewarded with significant discounts. Is it any wonder why tensions reached such a breaking point?

Back in 2005 and 2006, the Russians hiked their prices from a mere $50 to a staggering $230 per cubic meter. But have you actually considered what triggered that sudden surge? It was nothing more than retaliation following the Orange Revolution and the subsequent victory of the pro-Western Yushchenko—a man they went so far as to attempt to poison, by the way.

Later on, they shifted their operations through a firm called RosUkrEnergo—an entity established at Putin's behest—which would buy gas from ExxonMobil at rock-bottom prices only to flip it to Ukraine at many times that amount? And who exactly was pocketing that massive spread? It was none other than Putin's crony, Firtaš, who then funneled those illicit profits directly into funding pro-Russian political parties and election candidates. Is it really such a mystery? Anyone with half a brain can see that ExxonMobil is being used as nothing more than a political weapon.

Exactly. We’re glossing over a few key facts here. Back when Viktor Yanukovych was calling the shots in Ukraine, he was adamant about one thing: Ukraine wasn't joining any military alliance. His entire focus was on doing whatever it took to secure a spot in the European Union.
He signed a bilateral deal with Russia to lease the Port of Sevastopol through 2042, all while Ukraine gets a 30% discount on gas compared to market rates. Honestly? Sounds like a damn good deal to me. ☕

Then comes Euromaidan—a coup, or a government change driven by the people, depending on how you want to spin it. It’s all the same to me. ☕
Given the circumstances, Russia wasn't going to sit around waiting for things to unfold—just like Americans wouldn't have. Instead, they secured their access to the port of Sevastopol by occupying Crimea. Whether that was justified or not isn't my call to make. But once those contracts were tossed out the window due to a coup and the government being ousted against the people's will, gas prices skyrocketed wherever that specific company held a monopoly. Could Poroshenko have stopped it? Yes. Did he? No. End of story. Throw in Europe’s complete lack of interest in what's happening in Ukraine, combined with NATO's active role there, and you've got your answer.

Look, I’ve said it more than once: America could achieve incredibly efficient energy independence through renewables. So why haven't we done it yet? Because the tech is still too expensive right now. It's all about the bottom line, and frankly, the people in charge are just looking out for their own interests. $667 Pensions instead? $33 My electricity bill hit $300. Just like that.$133 Monthly. Oil and gas remain the cheapest energy sources out there, regardless of what the current market price says. Global economies are still fundamentally built on cheap energy solutions. You can see that just by listening to our business leaders; when they talk about what's driving the crisis, the very first thing they mention is how much electricity prices have spiked. $5000 na $13333.

One last thing. A bit off-topic. About 10 or 15 years ago on this forum, I used an Erwin Rommel avatar and got banned for promoting Nazism. Now? It seems things have changed. People are using avatars that look suspiciously like a swastika. But whatever. As long as they’re using the Z., it's fine. ☕

Michael Davis9 said:At its core, money is really nothing more than a tool—it’s just a practical way for us to make exchanging goods and services a whole lot easier.

Historically speaking, the Russian Federation has always relied on the European Union to supply those high-end, high-value goods—we're talking heavy machinery, specialized chemical products, intricate industrial components, and all sorts of sophisticated equipment used for everything from energy extraction to large-scale manufacturing.

When you look at the reality of these sanctions, it’s becoming pretty clear that Russia is hitting a massive wall. They're finding it increasingly difficult to actually buy and import most of what they need, which is why they're facing such an enormous deficit right now. I’ve been looking closely at the recent numbers, and honestly, seeing such a significant drop in imports really caught my eye. It’s one of those shifts that feels like more than just a minor fluctuation; it's a signal that deserves some real thought. When you see import volumes sliding like this, it usually points toward a deeper change in consumer demand or perhaps some tightening in the broader economic landscape here in the States. I can't help but wonder how much of this is a reaction to shifting domestic spending habits versus larger supply chain adjustments. It’s definitely a trend worth watching as we navigate the current economic climate. .

So, it looks like they’ve got plenty of cash on hand, but when it comes to actual assets, there’s nothing to show for it.

If Germany can't get their gas situation sorted out, they’re headed straight into a recession, and honestly, that’s going to drag a massive chunk of the entire European Union right down with them.

Just imagine if the gas supply had been cut off six months ago—we wouldn't have had nearly enough time to get those storage facilities filled up to the brim like we have now.

Lucky for you, there are still media outlets where you can actually talk directly to Russians. I get my info straight from the source. Right out of the gate, they said there were supply issues at retail stores, but things stabilized quickly. They won't touch politics for obvious reasons, but when it comes to the economy, they share whatever data they have access to.☕

gentlestag15 said:So what’s the actual endgame here?
Do we just unhook the Russian modules from the ISS or go ahead and shut down the whole space station?

If we’re being consistent about everything, shutting it down would be the obvious move. ☕

I’d love to know if these big-time advocates for sanctioning Russia actually have any idea if the Americans got the green light from Zelensky for this ☕

George Robinson43 said:That website is absolutely terrible. 🙏

Cost of Living.
One slice of bread and a pound of beef.

I highly recommend this one instead:
https://www.globalproductprices.com/

Data from March 2022:
A pound of sugar:
Russia $1.56, USA $0.87
A gallon of milk:
Russia $1.27, USA $1.07
A pound of onions:
Russia $1.18, USA $0.67
Coca-Cola 0.5L:
Russia $1.11, USA $0.89
Heinekken 0.5L:
Russia $2.40, USA $0.97
iPhone 13:
Russia $1282, USA $1064

Just look at the price of Coca-Cola for example.
https://www.walmart.com/ip/coca-cola-classic-5-liter-bottle/ $2.25

Most prices are from March. Exchange rate was roughly $1=62 rubles. This link is better than the gambler's, but still wouldn't recommend it because:
1. I have no clue what the actual dollar-to-ruble rate is in Russian banks right now.
2. No idea if prices changed given the inflation over there.
3. The Dollar strengthened against the Euro and the local currency, so you'll get wrong numbers if you use today's exchange rate—it's actually higher, to be more precise.
4. Same goes for the ruble; maybe you get more rubles per $1 now.

Terry Green3 said:So, what’s the consensus here? Are the Russians just going to slap sanctions on their gas deliveries to Germany?

The real issue isn't even about residential heating or household energy bills. It's about heavy industry—take the chemical sector, for example. They rely on gas as a raw material to produce bases used all over the US and the rest of the world, essentially driving the entire economy.

My take? In a worst-case scenario, Putin cuts the flow by about a third, citing some manufactured "technical glitches." It's just a way to flex his muscles and cause chaos in the supply chain. He gets to decide which industries stay powered up and which ones get left in the dark.

What are your predictions? People in Western Europe are having heated debates over this right now. Here in the States, we aren't sweating it too much since our reserves are currently among the lowest compared to other regions.

Predictions depend entirely on where Russia decides this "special operation" ends, and let's be honest, nobody is brave enough to call it.

It's true that Russia holds Eastern Europe by the throat, but Zelenskyy is playing the same game. German howitzers and American Himars didn't end up in Ukraine as a simple gesture of goodwill from the West. Zelenskyy controls the pipeline valves on his own soil; he can trade gas for weapons. I'd bet my life that's already happening, just far beneath the surface.

northernhawk33 said:Word on the street is they’re replacing the damaged water mains with those ancient steel pipes—you know, the ones filled with concrete.
Does everything seriously have to be designed by retirees who haven't even looked at modern materials in decades?
We need to hire an actual engineering firm that’ll pitch a project using cutting-edge polymer pipes and fittings—stuff that doesn't corrode and uses high-tech connections instead of old-school welding. When you're overhauling New York City's water grid, you should be using state-of-the-art tech, not relying on designs from the Stone Age just because the people drafting them are 80 years old and working out of pure habit.

They’re patching a leak... you use whatever materials are already there or stuff compatible with the existing setup if nothing else is available. If you’re replacing the entire line, then sure, ditch the Middle Ages tech and go with new materials and new methods.

Here’s a breakdown of why increasing oil production isn't actually in Saudi Arabia's interest.

Don't forget that Saudi Arabia is an OPEC member, while Yemen isn't. That tells you everything you need to know about alternative oil routes. Same goes for Algeria. Our brilliant experts claimed that since the pipeline from Algeria hits Italy, we could easily just transport it from there to us. It seems they forgot to factor in countries with shared interests—especially Italy, which is also desperate for gas. ☕

Joshua Myers432 said:Mark my words, there is absolutely no way Europe can fully cover its needs through alternative energy alone. The only real shot we had was building out nuclear power to kick Russian energy to the curb. Because of short-sighted, incompetent people, that option was tossed aside. Then, those same fools went ahead and slapped sanctions on Russia regarding those energy supplies—essentially sanctioning themselves.

Someone sold you this idiotic fantasy about alternative energy, and now you're just chanting it like a mantra. 🤦

I disagree. Every country has the potential to develop highly efficient alternative energy, but so far, they've been blocked by oil lobbies and their cheap products. The government makes a killing off them through various levies meant for "research projects" that are basically just ways to waste time. An unnamed official was one of the first to push this, suggesting it would be "ideal" if citizens paid for highway construction through the price of gasoline. ☕

And the government didn't stop there; they even tacked on a "renewable energy fee" to electricity bills. Just another unnecessary cost for the average person. I honestly wonder how much of that fee actually goes toward renewable energy. ☕

Of course, Russia's invasion of Ukraine messed up global trade, mostly because the Alan Ford crowd in Brussels, that unpopular goat in London, and the geriatric leader in Washington, D.C. thought they knew what they were doing with those sanctions.

So, it’s not just Putin, or whatever name you want to call him, who is responsible for the current economic mess. Sure, he's responsible for destroying Ukrainian infrastructure and killing civilians, but Saudi Arabia does the same thing in Yemen and nobody makes a fuss.

The peak level of bureaucratic lethargy and cronyism is visible in the geothermal testing at that never-built hospital in Washington, D.C. It's worth noting that the project was led by Mason's daughter, and despite all that time, not a single test was ever conducted to prove whether geothermal resources even exist or if exploiting them in that area would be profitable. ☕

To completely decouple from oil dependency, it should take us ten years. But since our leadership positions are filled by people who can barely copy a diploma, let's multiply that by five.

Anthony Hill5 said:The article explicitly states that Saudi Arabia has the capacity to bump production from 10.5 million barrels per day to 12.5 million.

As for the United Arab Emirates, they can manage an additional 400,000 to a million.

The EU imports 2 million barrels per day from Russia. Therefore, Saudi Arabia alone can replace exactly what is needed.

Quote : Europe was The destination for nearly half of Russia's crude and petroleum product exports before Russia's invasion of Ukraine, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA).

The EU imported 2.2 million barrels per day (bpd) of crude in 2021, including 0.7 million bpd via pipeline.

https://www.reuters.com/markets/comm...%20of%20diesel.

If anyone actually understands the true production capacities of Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, it is the Americans.

I’d usually ignore one-sided nonsense like this, but here we go.

First off, Russia used to export nearly 10 million barrels a day. Now Europe is stuck with 2 million, and sure, Saudi Arabia could theoretically fill that hole alone. But look at the reality: while some countries cut back on Russian imports (like the Netherlands), others actually ramped them up (Italy, Canada). It’s also worth noting nobody even knows where that last 1.5 million barrels of Russian oil ends up. By the way, Turkey increased its Russian oil imports too—they're basically treating European supply like their own private stash. ☕

Second thing: we keep acting like Saudi Arabia is some holy savior, yet they invaded an independent Yemen. Apparently, nobody cares. People only smell Russian oil over Ukrainian bodies, not Saudi oil over Yemeni civilian casualties. ☕
If we're talking about proportional sanctions, Saudi Arabia earned them long before Russia did. Makes you wonder: what happens if the UN decides to sanction Arab oil because of the aggression in Yemen? ☕

That probably won't happen. Not if Saudi Arabia keeps its capacity capped. I already dropped the link where the Saudi Prince said there wouldn't be an increase because of a deal with Russia. In exchange, Russia turns a blind eye to the invasion of Yemen and won't push for UN sanctions. Meanwhile, the government currently in power in Yemen is close to Iran, who is a Russian ally. It’s complicated. Beyond complicated.

You know what... maybe you should be the Secretary of Commerce. We could send you to negotiate directly with the Saudi Prince. ☕

brightheron64 said:It’s quite something how when Joe Biden releases oil from the American strategic reserves, the Republicans absolutely lose their minds, even though gas prices haven't really budged and those strategic reserves have plummeted to their lowest point in thirty-five years...

unknown
“President Biden drained our Strategic Petroleum Reserve to dangerously low levels just so that we could turn around and send 5,000,000 barrels of oil to Europe and Asia? America Last Presidency!” tweeted Rep Jim Banks.
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/w...-b2117432.html

Tucker Carlson is absolutely livid: Biden should be impeached for this

It really is worth taking a look at this...😁

Of course prices dropped once those 5 million barrels hit the market. My earlier point remains: why would other OPEC members play ball with Europe and the US?

Even reading this—taking the sources with a grain of salt—I can basically thank Putin. By invading Ukraine, he proved exactly how vulnerable the EU is. I'm seeing reports from various nations and the European Council about needing to "reduce dependence on Russian energy"... but there's a logical flaw here. What happens if the countries Europe turns to end up in the same spot as Russia? Let's face it: Saudi Arabia is fighting an open war against Yemen. ☕

mojneinen said:This isn't about semantics. It's about you twisting the facts.
It's actually fascinating how many people here just hate the West. This pathological hatred makes zero sense to me.

I guess I'm viewed the same way too. I don't hate the West; I just enjoy poking the people who hate everything Russian just to see what happens.

BTW, moving away from politics—a Lada was an incredible car for those brutal winters in rural Pennsylvania. Short wheelbase, pure grit. It would plow through half a meter of snow where the best Western SUV's wouldn't even budge (I've seen it myself). During that big earthquake near Petrinja, you saw the true misery of Western SUV's that couldn't even reach certain areas.
Too bad today's LADA has traded its rugged soul for that fancy, westernized SUV look. Now they're worth exactly what those Western vehicles are worth: nothing. Just all show.
By chasing those western aesthetics, LADA lost its identity. It used to be a beast for rough terrain. Not long ago, before everyone switched over to Range Rover, our Red Cross relied heavily on those old Russian Ladas. Only downside? No legroom.☕

Back to the sanctions. A bunch of people hating on everything Russian confidently claimed that Arabs would ramp up oil and gas production to replace the Russian supply. Here's a logical question: Why would an Arab increase production and drive down oil prices when they're at historic highs, essentially throwing money out of their own pockets? Solidarity? The only time Arabs showed solidarity was with Egypt during the Cyprus War.☕

analogbear5 said:Probably not, but as a backup power source for charging at home? I don't see why not. Especially if you're just doing local trips and not driving across the entire US.

What percentage of cars are even used for short daily commutes?

Makes sense. Put solar panels on rooftops and use them to charge EVs. Then there's the recycling issue. Honestly, I don't know much about recycling, but I remember some expert on a TV show saying we shouldn't sweat it—that as solar tech evolves, the recycling industry will evolve right along with it.