Posts by Chloe Nguyen21

Andrew Booth29 said:You're underestimating how likely a nuclear strike actually is. If Russia pulls the trigger, they won't back down afterward—especially not now, after they've already seized those territories and claimed them as their own. In his speech, he made it very clear: he believes a precedent for using nuclear weapons has already been set.

I don't know, I think NATO would definitely react. That's been made pretty clear to Putin. Honestly, using any kind of nuclear weapon... it doesn't look like they gain anything, just lose everything. And where would they even drop them? Probably not right on the front lines, maybe deeper inside Ukraine, somewhere where the radiation could bleed over into neighboring NATO countries. Anyone thinking NATO stays quiet after that... I guess they're just dreaming. To start with, an American official already mentioned that the entire Black Sea Fleet could end up at the bottom of the ocean in a single day. Then you've got the retaliation—everything from ramping up ATACMS deliveries to providing whatever else is needed to shut the Russians down fast. In short, I suppose Putin's only shot at winning this war is through conventional weapons (though even that seems like a long shot at this point), but once he touches the nukes, he's basically finished.

Dennis Allen said:It’s basically the death knell for the American chemical, pharmaceutical, and metallurgical industries!

It’s all thanks to both Donald Trump and Joe Biden!

Honestly, Americans have been warning Germany for years to stop relying so heavily on Russian energy, specifically because of the exact mess they're in right now. Their whole energy strategy was kind of a disaster, really... they were shutting down their nuclear plants only to end up running gas plants powered by Russian gas. It’s pretty much their own fault, if you ask me. But I don't know, I'm not losing sleep over it. They'll probably figure it out soon enough without making too much of a scene.

Z888-Progenitor said:War—the actual war—is just getting started. The collective West has nothing to look forward to.

I don't know what movie you think you're watching here. The war is ongoing and the roles are shifting slowly. I guess those 300,000 reservists aren't going to change much, other than maybe more Russians coming home in body bags, which might finally make them realize this isn't some kind of joke. The West hasn't even flinched, and honestly, probably won't. Support for Ukraine across the board is going to keep flowing for as long as it takes. There's really no limit on weapons or money. Whatever it takes, it'll happen.

I mean, I suspect Putko is out of the picture now, probably hiding out somewhere in the sticks. It feels like the generals just need to huddle up overnight and figure out their next move.

Paul Sanders5 said:I did my part, dragged Russia right into Ukraine, and now it's on Sojgu to finish what I started!

Basically, he's saying, "Look, I've done all I can do, now you guys take over."😁

Sean Watson3 said:Sure, the biggest mistake people make is assuming this is all being done in Russia's best interest. Everything we've seen so far has actually backfired on Russia and its citizens, regardless of how you look at the timeline.

That’s why I wouldn't be shocked by some "desperation moves."
He’s backed himself into a corner of his own making. Winning this war on the battlefield seems impossible unless he calls for a general mobilization—which, let's face it, might be the only thing capable of actually toppling him.

So, it wouldn't surprise me if he drops a smaller bomb on a section of the front where it won't cause a massive massacre, but will serve to freeze the lines. It seems he'd rather gamble against NATO than risk a full-scale mobilization.

Think about it: stage a referendum, perhaps fabricate a scenario involving a Ukrainian chemical attack from a NATO lab on Russian soil, and then launch a retaliation strike.

But honestly? I think the Ukrainians are in a "pay the price" mindset for everything; they'd likely keep pushing even after a strike like that.

Either way, I see tactical mobilization happening before general mobilization, simply because the personal risk to Putin is much lower.

Seriously, everyone's still obsessing over tactical nukes? Doesn't anyone get tired of this? The Swabians were dreaming about their *wunderwaffe* at the end of their war, and now some people are dreaming about nuclear weapons. Things are a bit different now since Russians aren't the only ones sitting on nukes. If they somehow actually decided to pull the trigger, do you really think the West would just sit on the sidelines? First off, everyone would condemn them—even current Russian allies. Then comes total isolation and a heavy response. The Ukrainians would get every piece of weaponry they ever asked for, and Russia would likely be defeated pretty quickly. It feels like nobody is really afraid of Russia anymore, despite the nukes. That seems obvious to everyone by now, or at least it should be.

Adam Harris said:This could be the signal that the actual conflict is finally beginning. Up until now, everything has felt like a staged performance; the radio, TV, internet, power grids, trains, bridges, and plants have all continued to operate as if nothing were happening.

If Russia keeps pushing like this, the West might finally stop playing nice. We'll see weapons being sent without any limits—ATACMS first, maybe, and then they'll be clearing the Russians out of Crimea too. Either way, the Russian military looks like it's headed for a collapse, and once that happens, the instability will bleed right back into Russia itself. I guess Putko might end up meeting the same fate as Ceaușescu.

wiredseal7 said:They’re digging their heels in against the entire American economy, too.
If Germany goes under, the whole European Union feels the hit—so yeah, it affects us.

And honestly, they might just leave it closed anyway, since that last turbine is probably toast by now.

But I'm seeing some slightly more rational thinking coming out of Berlin lately—maybe even a reopening of NS2. Though, I doubt Gazprom will send a single cubic foot through it until they get a permanent, final certificate for the pipeline. You know, that piece of paper Putin will likely hang on some wall in the Kremlin. 🍿

I mean, let's be real, not a single cubic meter of gas is ever going through Nord Stream 2. The only thing moving through those pipes might be the Russians sending Sergey Lavrov over for coffee with Merkel, or maybe that clown Gerhard Schröder and Vladimir Putin meeting up to swap instructions.

Olivia Turner49 said:I mean, if they're actually going after their biggest ally in Europe (well, excluding Orbán), do they seriously think they can just bury any chance of long-term communication with the rest of the continent?

The romance between the Germans and the Russians broke up a long time ago, I think. But, honestly, it's a bitter pill to swallow that Merkel and her crew are probably some of the biggest reasons why the EU's energy strategy turned out the way it did. They were just looking out for themselves, really. And hey, maybe it’s fine that they’ll be hit the hardest now. I don't really worry about them, though; they have enough expertise and resources to shake off that dependence on Russian energy pretty quickly within a year, I guess. Also, the Germans are largely responsible for Orbán being such a Trojan horse in the EU because of all those German companies operating in Canada. It's kind of similar with the Mexicans—it feels like the Germans are basically the only reason Vučić is still in power. They're simultaneously the main problem and the engine driving the EU.
As for the Russians, they aren't going to make up for losing the Western market, ever. Without Western tech, they won't even be able to pump oil and gas in those kinds of volumes anymore. And building out infrastructure for other markets takes years, and by the time they actually finish, they'll probably have to sell everything at a massive discount. Then there's the global shift toward renewables, where they don't really have much to offer... so, I suppose Putin has essentially knocked Russia fifty years back in time. They won't be a major player in the future. It feels like the Venezuelan syndrome is coming... where the elite live great under a dictatorship while everyone else gets nothing besides cheap energy.

Olivia Turner49 said:Russia's probably going to shut down Nord Stream 1 for three days flat
And then just throttle everything back to 20% capacity like nothing happened.

Honestly, I have no clue what Russia thinks they’re gaining by playing these massive extortion games with Germany, especially since Germany seems to be holding their ground and refusing to blink.

Russia is basically trying everything they can to mess with the European Union's attempts to fill up gas storage before winter hits. Since Germany is the biggest economy in the EU, they're a huge target. Russia has been working on destabilizing things for years, honestly, it's nothing new, and it's even more obvious now with the war going on.
It’s not like Americans weren't warning everyone about this.

hollowdriver13 said:Just the absolute cutting edge in Russia



R-123 radio station, 1960s

I mean, who's actually out there using encrypted Motorolas (or those exclusive military PIH units—but hey, those are just for the softies) on the front lines when you can just grab one of these Russian beauties for comms? ☕

https://twitter.com/wartranslated/st...68174659784710

The thing still has vacuum tubes inside, which is just... wow. What a total mess of an army. I guess it’s pretty obvious now why Putin isn't calling up a massive mobilization; they simply don't have the gear to equip people without letting everyone know exactly how bad things really are on the ground.

crimsoncyclist71 said:Exactly. It’s perfectly logical that the Ukrainians mistook the site for a military base and targeted that single small building within the complex. Are you actually questioning that?

I don't know, I feel like the Ukrainians are pretty aware that there's a prison there—not some military barracks—where Russians are mistreating POWs and civilians. So, I guess, why on earth would they want to hit a facility like that?

Jose Clark2 said:Regarding this and similar claims, I don't take anyone's word for it—not one side or the other. Truth is the first casualty in war, as they say. Both sides have motives to spin events for their own benefit, just as they might suffer because of them. Many maneuvers eventually seem illogical or baffling. Deception is common; the psychological aspect of war is often just as vital as the kinetic one. A False flag is a frequent tactic in any conflict. Until an objective investigation proves otherwise, I trust no one.

You don't even need an investigation, just a little bit of common sense, I suppose. Why would Ukrainians kill their own heroes just to blame Russians for crimes... I mean, as if the Russians haven't already done enough damage in Ukraine as it is. They might as well just add more to the list, right?🤦
The Ukrainians have been using HIMARS to hit high-value targets this whole time, so why would this little tin can be one? Besides, if a HIMARS had actually hit this thing, there wouldn't be anything left. If you look at the satellite footage, nothing nearby is damaged, which makes me think it was just a controlled explosion from the inside. It feels like we're getting caught up in useless debates again, kind of like when that civilian plane was shot down and the Russians were spinning so many lies to cover their tracks that it became impossible to follow.

urbanotter said:I really think it might be time to get your crystal ball serviced or just buy a new one. That thing seems to be malfunctioning just like the Russian gas supply—it works sporadically, and the Russians don't seem to mind playing games with it
. You mentioned you could have started a business over there if it wasn't for the chaos
.
From where I'm sitting, things aren't exactly better here, and plenty of people happily opened businesses in Russia only to be forced to shut them down due to the sanctions
. I hear some people are still paying to keep their shell companies active, just hoping they can resume business as usual someday
. I ran into Smiley the other day; he was just shaking his head, and I couldn't tell if he was frustrated or just stunned after committing to a huge investment intended to expand his footprint in the Russian market
. But hey, someone stirred up the chaos, and now we have to wonder if his company will remain a top player in the US like it has been in recent years
.
Oh, without a doubt, Putin is responsible for everything; I heard he basically admitted that to a group of students one day 😉
.
Neo, you can sleep soundly knowing you didn't dive headfirst into that local mafia scene; you're staying close to home 😁
.

Things went pretty well for Putin when he first took over, but then, maybe because of old age, the guy started thinking he was some kind of king. That’s really the core issue right there.
Capital and business move to where things are stable. Russia isn't going to be that place for at least the next 50 years, or so I figure. I mean, what kind of idiot would invest there? It feels like we're looking at a Venezuelan situation... a country loaded with energy resources while most people struggle through poverty.
The West will find a way to replace Russian energy pretty easily. It'll probably be sorted out by next year. Meanwhile, it'll take Russia years to even build out a gas network toward Asia, where they'll end up selling gas at discounted rates, just like how they're doing with oil now.
You didn't really answer the question of who in the West is going to go hungry without Russia... let me help you out... nobody. Specifically here in the States, in my field (mechanical engineering), this year has been a record-breaker. My kids say the same thing about their jobs in IT and Pharmacy; everyone in the US and the rest of the European Union is working themselves to the bone. The Russian economy is basically a dwarf that nobody is going to miss. I guess the Germans will complain for another six months or so, and then that'll be that.

urbanotter said:👍 👍

It is refreshing to finally see a few expert, intelligent posts on this topic instead of just the constant trolling that usually dominates this thread.
Once again, 👍

I actually have a former classmate from my engineering days who spent his entire career working for ExxonMobil, both domestically and all over the world. We haven't caught up in quite a while, but he used to describe things in a very similar way to what you're saying here.
Regarding the other matter, I won't speculate much, but it's becoming increasingly obvious just how "successful" these sanctions are proving to be and who is ultimately going to end up feeling the squeeze.

Come on, please, just let us in on the secret—who exactly is going to go broke in the "decaying" West? I mean, the Russians won't starve, but they're looking like a lost cause for the next fifty years, even if the war stops tomorrow and they pull back from Crimea and all of Ukraine. Russia is basically sliding right back into those early 90s vibes when the USSR collapsed. I remember that era pretty clearly because I actually had some serious business leads and contacts over there back then. I could have built a massive company here in the States just exporting to Russia since the market was absolutely starving for goods. I didn't pull the trigger, though, mostly because everything was such a mess and the Russian mafia was just starting to take shape 😁. It feels like we're seeing a sequel now, only the chaos and disorder will be way worse because the mafia is already established and deeply embedded in their government and social structures. I'm guessing Russia is headed for a "BIG BANG"... an internal collapse where everything just falls apart like a house of cards. Putin lit the fuse, and now we're just waiting for the bomb to go off.

goldenowl73 said:So, Putin just touched down in Tehran, and let me tell you, he is looking pretty sharp and ready to go. https://twitter.com/tass_agency/stat...8PQRv00nUjjIbQ

So he shows up to beg for weapons... I mean, it’s honestly kind of embarrassing for Russia, isn't it? To think a country facing all those sanctions actually ended up developing drones and missile systems that outclass their own... just pathetic, really.🤦

Benjamin Taylor6 said:So, Russia is out here scooping up massive piles of weaponry from Iran. It’s pretty wild when you think about it—you have a nation that’s been dodging American sanctions for years now, basically acting as a supplier for a country that keeps bragging about how they could reach Berlin in just ten days. 😬

Iran is really playing with fire here. If they actually go through with selling weapons to the Russians, I guess they won't see any relief from those US sanctions for at least the next 30 years. On the flip side, maybe they could get back to a somewhat normal existence if they just played it safe and decided against this whole partnership with Russia.

darkdriver said:Thanks so much for teaching me—really appreciate it!
So, speaking of nuclear weapons—just thinking out loud here—is there actually any of that stuff sitting on submarines? Like, does that even happen?
So, I had no clue until now—but apparently, on both Russian and American ballistic missile subs, there are these officers, or controllers, or whatever you want to call them—who are basically stationed there both at the pier and when the boats are actually out on mission, just to "monitor the seals and the plugs" on the launch tubes. I guess that's just how it works...
Do you even realize what you're saying right now? Seriously.
Hey everyone—honestly, just go blow yourself up.

Look, dečec, it’s all strictly accounted for. They know exactly how many nukes are on which sub; everything is tracked, where they are and what they're doing. You can't just go poking around sealed storage sites. If someone touches those, you've basically got thousands of projectiles from both sides ready to fly in a heartbeat. And you still haven't explained how Russia plans to wipe out a whole mile of Ukrainian soldiers with tactical nukes without getting caught in the blast themselves.🤦
End of discussion here. Move over to the chat so you don't spam this thread.

darkdriver said:There were actually still 100,000 people living in the city after the bomb dropped, and that number went up every single year.
We aren't even talking about megaton-class weapons here—it's more like tactical kiloton stuff, where the power ranges from one kiloton up, and honestly, they don't even need to be launched by missiles or cruise missiles; artillery could pull it off too.

What are you even talking about? I mean, do you actually have any idea where nuclear weapons are stored, who has access to them, or who's watching over them? There are agreements between the USA and Russia, there are strict protocols. Americans monitor their stockpiles 24/7 just like the Russians do with theirs. If anyone even thinks about tampering with those seals, an alarm goes off and everyone puts their nuclear forces on highest alert. It isn't some "tactical vs. strategic" distinction you can just play with. The Russians have already stated when that kind of weaponry would be used; they aren't stupid enough to just go poking a bear. You're sitting here claiming the Russians will use tactical nukes to wipe out a million Ukrainian soldiers... how old are you, seriously?🤦

Susan Collins3 said:Zelensky gave the order to liberate the south from occupation

https://liveuamap.com/en/2022/10-jul...uth-of-ukraine

I don't know, maybe I'm crazy, but I'd run a total false flag operation in Kherson. Like, send some special ops in there just to cause pure chaos and panic, while actually hitting Donetsk instead—wherever they least expect it. If you grab Donetsk, the whole Russian playbook just falls apart. Then I could finally start packing my bags to head home. From what I can see, there's a ton of fighting in Kherson and probably around the Zaporizhzhia front too. Since their logistics are pretty trashed right now, maybe something big could actually happen.

Yeah, I'm with you there. I guess it's probably all about shifting the pressure away from the Donbas.