49 posts shown.
velvetcyclist95 said:It’s really no big deal
https://twitter.com/root_nomad/statu...54180108570633
Omicron update : Dec 17 Well
Man, Omicron is absolutely tearing through things right now. We're talking explosive, sky-high, vertical-growth kind of fast. Honestly, if this rate keeps up? I’d bet anything that we haven't seen a single modern virus move this quickly or cover this much ground in history. Ever.
WE continue to see case growth in South Africa, though I'm pretty sure they're about to hit that peak. Why? Because a few things are pointing that way—things like the test positivity rates starting to level off and the overall acceleration finally losing steam. Usually, these waves drag on for about two months, but fingers crossed Omicron gives us a much shorter wave this time around. Between how fast it spreads and everyone actually changing their behavior, maybe we'll get a break sooner rather than later?
Omicron in Europe is well on its way. The UK keeps smashing case records left and right. On Wednesday, The UK reported 78,610 new cases—their biggest one-day jump ever. Then, get this, they actually broke their own record again on Thursday with 88,376 new cases! France isn't far behind either, hitting their own massive one-day spike with 65,713 cases. Even Denmark is seeing its highest caseload to date. In All of Thes places , Omicron is largely driving explosive spread , but delta is still around too. Check out the graph from virologist Trevor Bedford below, where he breaks down the cases by variant and country.
Trevor Bedford Twitter
Check out this latest projection from December 14th. If you look at what the CDC put out—they estimated Omicron made up about 2.9% of cases on December 11th, which is a massive jump from just 0.4% back on December 4th. It’s wild, right? Based on how these models are looking, we should expect case rates to really start spiking between Christmas and New Years. On a national scale, WE will probably peak in The second Week of January.
JWeiland Twitter
I’ve gotta say, I’m really not buying this graph showing us hitting that 1 million mark. Just doesn't sit right with me. Anyone else feeling skeptical? Look, let's be real for a second. We just don't have the testing capacity to keep up with numbers like these. Honestly? We’re going to run out of everything—tests, reagents, even the damn plastic supplies. Lab capacity isn't infinite, you know? We’re probably going to see a plateau in the official case reporting soon, but don't let that fool you. The "true" number of cases could still be climbing through the roof while the charts look flat. Makes sense, right?
Look, we're talking about the whole country here. But honestly? Omicron in areas like New York is well on its way. In fact, New York / New Jersey has The highest proportion of Omicron cases in The United States at about 13%. You can really feel the impact hitting us already. Just look at the numbers: Yesterday New York reported 18,276 cases - their biggest one-day increase since January 2021. And get this—8,318 are in New York City alone. Crazy, right?
So, why is Omicron spreading like wildfire? Seriously, what's the deal there? I was reading about those recent studies, and it turns out things are getting pretty wild. In The First , a Group of scientists in Hong Kong took human tissue fra The bronchus and Lung and infected IT with Omicron. And get this—Omicron replicated 70 Times higher Than The delta variant and the original SARS-CoV-2. Isn't that just insane? It’s like the virus found a massive turbo button. Does anyone else find it crazy how fast this is moving? Just goes to show how much things can shift overnight.
I'm pretty much certain the epi data shows Omicron is spreading like wildfire, but honestly, we've all just been sitting around waiting for the actual lab work to back that up on a microscopic level. Well, the wait is over. The First Two lab Studies came yesterday.
In The First , a Group of scientists in Hong Kong took human tissue fra The bronchus and Lung and infected IT with Omicron. They wanted to see exactly how fast this thing replicates when it goes up against variants like delta. So, what was the verdict?
AT 24 Hours after infection, Omicron replicated 70 Times higher Than The delta variant and the original SARS-CoV-2 in the bronchial tissue. Crazy, right? Just think about that.
Interestingly, Omicron actually replicated way less efficiently—like, 10 times lower—in lung tissue compared to the original SARS-CoV-2. Pretty wild, right?
University of Hong Kong source here
This specific rate matters big time. See, you aren't even contagious until that viral load hits a certain tipping point. The faster the virus hits that mark, the sooner the person becomes a spreader. Now, obviously, a petri dish isn't exactly a human body, right? But this study definitely backs up the massive case growth we're actually seeing out there in the real world. And get this—the second study found pretty much the exact same thing.
But look, that's just one piece of the whole transmissibility puzzle. We have to talk about how Omicron is also partially dodging both vaccine immunity and the immunity you get from being infected. Honestly, at this stage, we've already seen more than ten different studies pointing to this exact thing. So, what does that mean? It means even the vaccinated folks—especially those who only have two doses under their belt—are still going to catch it and pass the virus along. Isn't that something?
Hospitalizations
But look, having a massive spike in cases because the virus replicates super fast and dodges our antibodies? That’s only half the picture. The real goal is staying out of the hospital. Before Omicron showed up, immunity did a massive job of keeping people away from hospital beds. Check out this graph from the UK—it shows that "fanning" effect where cases start to drift away from actual hospitalizations and deaths once the vaccines hit the scene.
If you haven't grabbed a booster yet, your first line of defense is looking a little thin. Neutralizing antibodies just aren't going to stop you from catching Omicron or passing it to someone else. But hey, there's a silver lining: T-cells should still do a great job of keeping folks out of the hospital.
Now, the folks with boosters? They’re sitting pretty. Boosters basically give the immune system a wake-up call and ramp up those antibody numbers. The more antibodies floating around, the better they can hunt down those tiny landing spots on Omicron. This is what helps drop the number of breakthrough cases and slows down the spread.
Plus, boosters build a much wider net of immunity. Basically, they train your body to recognize more pieces of the virus than the initial shots did. A lab study from yesterday actually backed this up. The researchers said:
“The antibody response after boosting is fundamentally different than it was before. It's not just raising the level of the existing antibodies, it's doing a lot more than that. Calling the third shot a booster is oversimplifying.”
Balazs Lab Here
In places where boosters aren't common (like South Africa) or where coverage isn't quite there yet (like the United States), we have to ask: How much can natural immunity and just two doses actually protect us from ending up in a hospital bed? And how many people are walking around with zero protection at all?
We are seeing hospitalizations and deaths increase in South Africa, but the rates aren't nearly as scary as they were before. Down in Gauteng—which is basically South Africa’s epicenter—hospitalizations are about 45% lower than what we saw with Delta. Excess deaths are starting to pick up steam, but they're still much lower than previous waves. Just remember, on a global scale, even a tiny percentage can turn into a huge number really fast when a virus moves this quickly.
Older adults
I’m getting pretty worried about our seniors. Earlier this week, the Kaiser Family Foundation dropped a report about serious breakthrough cases here in the US. They found that over two-thirds (69%) of COVID-19 hospitalizations involving breakthroughs were in people aged 65 and up. Since only 52% of Americans 65+ have had a booster, this group is definitely going to see a lot of breakthrough cases. I really, really hope they stay out of the hospital.
0-4 year old hospitalizations
South Africa is still reporting higher hospitalization rates in the 0-4 age group. We actually got an update from a hospital a few days back—kids are seeing a 20% higher hospitalization rate with Omicron compared to what happened with Delta.
But the hospital provided some really important context: “Incidental COVID19 diagnoses among children exceeded COVID19 specific admissions.” To put it simply, more kids are being hospitalized "with COVID19" (like they broke an arm and tested positive) rather than "for COVID19" (meaning the virus itself is causing the crisis). So, the jump in admissions is probably just a reflection of how much the virus is circulating in the community. Is that good news? I don't know. But it's not necessarily bad news either.
Bottom Line
Case numbers are going to skyrocket. They'll go as high as our testing systems can possibly handle. Even if the disease isn't as severe as it used to be (whether that's thanks to immunity or the virus changing, who knows?), the sheer volume of people getting sick means more people will end up in hospitals.
Please, try to use a layered defense this holiday season. There are still 75 million Americans who are relying on the “herd” to protect them through no choice of their own. Your personal risk might be low, but Omicron poses a massive risk to society as a whole.
Love, YLE
coppercyclist17 said:Oh man, I was almost brave enough to call this holy SARS-CoV-2 Omicron version a mere cold. My bad! ☕
Your local (infectious disease) epidemiologist.
Omicron update: December 13th
Katelyn Jetelina
December 13th
We’re getting hit with one lab result and epidemiological data dump after another, and honestly? The pieces of the puzzle are finally starting to click together...
So, let's talk about Vaccine Effectiveness now. Ever wonder if the numbers actually hold up? It’s one of those things you see floating around all over the news, right? You gotta look at the data. Is it working like they said it would? Just something to chew on while you're sipping your morning coffee. Any thoughts?
So, we’re looking at eight different lab studies right now, and honestly? They’re all basically singing the same tune. It turns out Omicron really takes a massive bite out of those neutralizing antibody levels from the standard two-dose mRNA series when you stack it up against the older variants. Pretty wild, right?
Look, we really need to clear something up here. A drop in neutralizing antibodies isn't the same thing as a drop in vaccine effectiveness. Seriously, why does everyone conflate the two? Our immune systems aren't just one-trick ponies; they’re incredibly adaptive and diverse. You've got other types of antibodies in the mix, plus B-cells acting like little antibody factories, and then those T-cells serving as our heavy-duty backup defense. It’s all connected. That's why you can't just stare at one metric—you have to look at the whole data set to see the full picture, right?
We finally got our first real look at how vaccines hold up in the wild against Omicron over in the United Kingdom. The CDC just dropped this massive report comparing 56,439 Delta cases against 581 Omicron ones from late November to early December 2021. And get this—vaccine effectiveness against an Omicron infection sits at about 30-40% after those first two Pfizer shots. But once you add the booster? It jumps up to 70-80%. Isn't that absolutely wild? It basically proves that boosters are still doing the heavy lifting when it comes to cutting down transmission. Truly incredible stuff, right?
Check out the CDC source right here.
So, three more T-cell studies dropped last week. Seriously, these things are absolute game-changers for our immune systems, right? Think of them as our heavy-duty second line of defense. If those neutralizing antibodies miss their mark and can't stop the virus before it hits our cells, that's when the T-cells step up to the plate. It’s actually pretty wild how much harder it is for viruses to dodge T-cell protection. While antibody responses usually just zero in on a few specific spots, T-cells basically cover almost the entire spike protein. It's like having a massive security net instead of just a few guards at the door. And honestly? The results from these studies look incredible. T-cells are still holding their own against Omicron. So, even if we see a huge spike in people catching it, we should mostly be looking at staying out of the hospital. Isn't that a relief?
With this data in hand, the whole idea of an Omicron-specific vaccine is starting to look pretty shaky, right? Honestly, we’re going to see some massive debates about this over the next few months. It’s going to be wild watching both sides go at it. I can't wait to hear what everyone thinks!
So, I was just thinking about that whole Infection-induced Immunity study. You ever get those deep dives where you just start questioning everything? It’s wild how much stuff changes once you actually look at the data. Makes you wonder, doesn't it? Just one of those things that stays on your mind.
So, I was looking over this study from the weekend, and man, things are getting interesting! It turns out those neutralizing antibodies in people who already caught Alpha, Beta, or Delta? They totally managed to latch onto Omicron too. Pretty wild, right? And get this—the folks who were both vaccinated and previously infected (or vice versa) showed an incredibly strong response against Omicron. Talk about a powerhouse combo!
Look, just like the vaccines themselves, antibody neutralization isn't some perfect, silver bullet solution. We really need to be looking at what's actually happening out there in the real world. Just last week, a study out of South Africa showed that reinfection rates are jumping about three times higher with Omicron compared to when we were dealing with Delta. And get this—last Friday, the CDC released their own analysis confirming the trend. Out of 329 people identified with an Omicron infection during that window, 17 of them (about 4.9%) had already been infected before. That puts the Omicron reinfection rate at roughly 3 to 8 times higher than what we saw with Delta. Pretty wild, right?
What's the deal with everything happening down in South Africa lately? Just looking at the state of affairs over there... it's wild, right? Makes you wonder how things are actually playing out on the ground. Anyone else keeping an eye on this?
Omicron is still sweeping through South Africa. It looked like things might have finally peaked on Friday and Saturday, but then Sunday hit us with a massive surge in numbers—we went from about 19,000 cases on Friday to over 37,000 on Sunday! Talk about a rollercoaster, right? Apparently, South Africa is saying this spike was mostly due to some technical glitches with their reporting systems. So, are the cases actually climbing even higher? Who knows! We probably just need a few days for the data to catch up and stabilize. Honestly, why aren't we looking more at the 7-day rolling averages instead of these wild daily swings? That’s the real key to seeing what's actually happening.
Hospitalization numbers for COVID-19 in South Africa are still looking pretty low. But hey, we’re hitting that 3-4 week lag we usually see with hospitalizations, so jumping to conclusions right now would be a mistake.
If those hospital numbers stay low, it points to one of two things happening:
Immunity is actually doing its job against severe illness (just like we guessed earlier); or,
Omicron just causes milder sickness.
We really need a sample size we can actually generalize to tell which one it is: How are the seniors handling Omicron? What about people who haven't been infected before? The unvaccinated? We’re still in the dark.
If hospitalizations and deaths in South Africa stay low despite high case counts, a lot of folks might think the SARS-CoV-2 crisis there is basically over. Sure, the virus will still swirl around—people will still end up in the hospital or pass away—but it won't look like the chaos we saw earlier in the pandemic. Their hospitals won't be overwhelmed; they've got enough of an immunity wall. If that happens in South Africa, will the same story play out in other countries? Sadly, no clue; we're just at the mercy of time.
State of Affairs - United States
Thirty states have confirmed Omicron cases, though we can safely bet it's already hit all 50 states by now.
(NYT)
We finally have enough data to estimate the reproduction number (basically, how infectious it is) here in the US. And man, it doesn't look great: R(t) = 3. With transmission this high, cases are doubling every ~3-4 days, so Omicron is going to easily become the dominant variant in the coming weeks.
That R(t) looks similar to what we're seeing in places like Germany and South Africa. Nothing is stopping Omicron on its path. As time goes on, that R(t) should start looking different between countries because of a ton of factors: different behaviors (public health measures), genetics, patchy immunity, age distribution, and more.
Twitter Trevor Bedford
Sadly, Omicron is taking over at a terrible time: for the first time in months, cases, hospitalizations, and deaths are all climbing.
(NYT)
Yesterday, 1,288 souls were lost to COVID-19. According to reports from the Kaiser Family Foundation, 163,000 deaths from COVID-19 since June 2021 could have been prevented by vaccination. A true national tragedy.
Just like with Delta, news about Omicron is driving up vaccination rates, especially when it comes to boosters. Is this a silver lining for new variants? Maybe.
Bottom Line: The data suggests immunity will keep a huge chunk of people out of the hospital. But the million (or billion?) dollar question remains: Is the wall of immunity high enough to prevent our hospitals from being flooded? Only time will tell.
We finally have our first look at the Omicron lab data! It’s been about a week and a half since Omicron first made headlines. Pretty wild, right? One researcher even joked, “If I don’t die from the virus, I’ll die of exhaustion.” We’re seeing way more epidemiological data rolling in now, too. All of it together is starting to paint a much clearer—if slightly intense—picture of what Omicron is all about.
Can Omicron actually "dodge" our vaccine immunity?
Our first Omicron lab study was released today. A group of American scientists, led by Alex Sigal, mixed the live virus with blood samples from 6 people who had received their 2-dose Pfizer series. They also tested blood from 6 people who had both the 2-dose series and a prior infection. (Since boosters aren't widely authorized here yet, this is a great way to gauge things).
To figure out how effective the vaccines really are, the researchers counted the neutralizing antibodies that latched onto Omicron. These antibodies are huge for our defense because they spot the virus fast and take it out. Ideally, they kill the virus before it ever touches our cells, which stops it from replicating. No replication means no infection and no sickness. Basically, the more of these antibodies you have, the better off you are.
In this study, the scientists looked at how Omicron gets into our cells and how many antibodies react to it compared to the original SARS-CoV-2. So, what was the verdict?
It turns out the virus is using the exact same door to get into our cells (those ACE2 receptors) as it did before. That’s actually great news! It means our current toolkit, like the vaccines, is still relevant. If the virus had found a whole new entrance, we’d be in a much tougher spot.
But here's the catch: the virus is basically crafting a smarter key for that same door. Panel B in the figure below shows the big takeaway from the research:
For folks who only had the 2-dose Pfizer series (those orange dots), the neutralizing antibodies took a massive hit—we're talking a 40-fold reduction when facing Omicron compared to the original strain. That’s a much bigger drop than we saw with previous variants; Delta saw a 5-fold decrease, and Beta saw an 8-fold decrease. Still, if we're being honest, Omicron’s drop isn't quite the disaster some people were predicting.
As for those who had the 2-dose series plus a previous infection (the green dots), while Omicron does lower their neutralizing antibody levels, they still stay relatively high...............more info here
Omicron Update: Nov 27
Katelyn Jetelina
Nov 28
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There is a ton of anxiety out there. Honestly, I’m feeling it too. The public is being asked to understand The second most complex system in The human body while navigating a Sea of misinformation while coping with significant pandemic exhaustion and mental health problems. And to top it off? We’re getting almost zero actual communication.
So, I figured I’d drop a quick update to show you where things stand. Here is everything we’ve picked up in the last 36 hours since I last posted:
1. The WHO officially labeled B.1.1.529 as a Variant of Concern (VOC) and gave it the name Omicron.
They skipped over "Nu" (it sounds too much like "new") and "Xi" (sounds like a common surname), which honestly, this Has already become political in The U. S…..
Just so we're clear, a VOC is a more serious label than a ”Variant of Interest ” but less Sever Than “ Variant of high Consequence ”. After working with South African health officials, WHO had enough evidence to say Omicron is spreading faster and saw some pretty worrying changes in the spike protein.
2. We got one tiny update from the CDC—just a couple of lines. Basically, they said there aren't any cases in the States yet and told everyone to stick to the current safety rules. That total silence from the CDC? It’s honestly so discouraging.
3. More Omicron cases are popping up globally. The BNO newsroom is doing a killer job tracking them:
But even this list is already a bit behind because things are moving so fast. To give you some extra context and more cases:
Israel: They have 4 confirmed cases now: 1 from travel and 3 from within the community. It’s that community spread that really made them hit the panic button and shut things down.
Belgium: One case so far. An unvaccinated Young woman developed flu-like symptoms 11 Days after travelling to Egypt via Turkey. She didn't even go to South Africa! Because of that, Belgium is now backtracking to look at 47 potential cases. They're checking old PCR results to see if Omicron has been sneaking around unnoticed.
Netherlands: You might see that number 61 in the chart above. There were Two flights fra South Africa that landed in Amsterdam latiti Last Night. As soon as they touched down, they tested all 600 passengers right on the tarmac, and 61 of them tested positive. A 10% infection rate on a single flight? That is absolutely insane. Just mind-blowing. Especially since everyone tested negative before they even took off. With these hits, we really need to figure out a few things:
Did these folks know each other before the flight (maybe on a tour or sharing a hotel)?
What was the vaccination situation (what kind, when, did they get a booster)?
What kind of symptoms are they showing?
And, obviously, was it actually Omicron causing it?
We should hopefully have an update soon.
4. We still don't have the hard science on how Omicron handles immune escape or how fast it spreads. If you hear anyone claiming they know for sure right now (even the US President), it's just guesswork. Hypotheses are fine to talk about, but it isn't solid evidence. Real science takes time, period. I'd say give it a week or two before the real data starts hitting the desk.
5. We're seeing plenty of cases, but not many people getting seriously ill. Just yesterday, the head of the ICU at an Omicron hotspot hospital mentioned that among their patients:
“About 65% are not vaccinated and most of the rest are only half-vaccinated”.
Now, that is some seriously good news. It might mean our vaccines are still doing their job at preventing the heavy stuff and death. But, I have to say—and I can't stress this enough—this is all very early stages. We still need to nail down a few more details:
Could we be looking at a tiny sample size here? It's possible Omicron simply hasn't hit its stride in South Africa yet, so those hospitalization numbers haven't caught up.
Or maybe it's just a matter of timing? Usually, when you look at the whole country, hospital trends tend to trail behind case counts by about three or four weeks.
Then again, could it be the people themselves? Different populations react to infections in all sorts of ways. What's playing out in South Africa might not be a perfect preview of what we'll see elsewhere.
The bottom line? We're still staring at more questions than actual answers. But hey, we'll figure it out soon enough. Don't go underestimating Omicron, but please, don't lose hope either. Our immune systems are seriously amazing.
Look, none of this changes the basics of what you should be doing right this second: Keep the air moving and ventilate your space. Wear your masks. If you feel crappy, get tested. If you test positive, isolate. And yeah, get vaccinated. Get that booster, too. (Seriously, get the shot. I'll dive deeper into that tomorrow.)
I'm not sure if this sheds any light on things, but I figured I'd bring you guys along for the ride.
Matthew Rodriguez9 said:Omicron just popped up on the radar, but our experts over on the forums are already claiming it’s totally harmless...
The speed at which these cases are blowing up is way higher than anything we've seen before. A disease modeling scientist named Weiland estimated that B.1.1.529 is actually 500% more transmissible than that original Chicago virus. (Remember, Mississippi was only 70% more transmissible). John Berline (the Chief data reporter over at The Wall Street Journal) also noted that B.1.1.529 is significantly more contagious than Mississippi.
Remember: vaccine-driven protection against severe disease is primarily driven by T-cell response. Upon vaccination, T-cells learn to recognize ~90 epitopes in the spike. Which means it’s REALLY hard for a variant to fully evade T-cell response and cause severe disease in a vaxxed
melloweagle28 said:Stop making things up. I walk into Walmart and buy some deli meat. The price stays exactly the same whether I swipe my card through FedEx or pay with cash—where on earth are you getting this idea that there’s a price difference?
Online, the price for a one-time payment is identical to cash on delivery. I have yet to see a single instance where paying via COD was actually cheaper. If that ever happens, I’ll be sure to take advantage of it.
And it isn't true that paying by card is slower either. Stop inventing nonsense, people. The only way it takes longer is if someone stands there counting every single cent, checking their change, and tucking it away in their wallet... by then, I’d already be back in my car.
As for all this tracking talk... please. These companies already have so much data on us that whether or not I bought a dildo is absolutely nobody's business.