Posts by Mark Carter14

During the first four months of 2022, Russia recorded a surplus of $96 billion—that’s more than three times what they saw during the same period last year.

"When the European Union partially banned imports of Russian oil, crude prices spiked on global markets, which actually allowed the Kremlin to pull in unexpected extra revenue. In fact, back in April, Russia exported 50 percent more oil and gas to China than they did in April 2021," writes Elliott.
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"The situation is pretty straightforward—if developing nations aren't energy exporters themselves, they’re going to get hit with a triple blow. Essentially, fuel and food crises are going to trigger a massive financial crisis. If these countries have to choose between feeding their people and paying back their debts, they’ll pick feeding people every single time. Sri Lanka became the first country to default on its debts since the invasion of Ukraine began. They certainly won't be the last. We might be looking at a global debt crisis unlike anything we've seen since the 1990s," Elliott argued in The New York Times.
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"From the very start of the invasion, the Russian president has been playing the long game, waiting for the ad hoc international coalition opposing him to fall apart. The Kremlin believes Russia can weather more economic hardship than the West, and they’re likely right," said Elliott.

Elliott suggests that President Joe Biden's decision to send advanced American missile systems to Ukraine is proof that sanctions simply aren't working.

On Tuesday, May 31st, Japan's Minister of Economy, Trade, and Industry, Koichi Hagiuda, told Parliament that Japan isn't pulling out of the Sakhalin-2 oil and gas project alongside Russia—not even under pressure.

“Sakhalin-2 is an asset our predecessors worked incredibly hard to secure. Sure, Russia might own the land, but the leases and the equipment used for liquefaction and transport belong to the Japanese government and Japanese companies. We have no intention of leaving, regardless of what people say,” the Japanese minister stated, according to Eadaily.
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“Japan is well within its rights to stay involved in those Russian oil and gas projects on Sakhalin. It’s high time these self-appointed judges, who think they know exactly how countries should protest the Russian military operation in Ukraine, learned to look at the bigger picture and think long-term,” said Hari.

We've been hit by forces beyond our control because of the war in Ukraine. This shipyard is massive—it basically dwarfs the entire American banking sector—and we're currently financing the construction of two vessels, the Golden Horizon and the Janssonius, using funds from VTB Europe, a Russian-owned bank based out of New York City. Because its parent company is VTB Russia, they're now subject to those heavy restrictions and sanctions recently slapped on them due to the situation in Ukraine. It’s an incredibly dramatic spot to be in. VTB has frozen all further disbursements on all loans because of the conflict, which has left us completely paralyzed, said Debeljak.

In his interview, Debeljak mentioned that about $65 million of the shipyard's own capital is currently tied up in these projects. They used those funds to bridge the gap while trying to work out a solution with the government, or specifically HBOR, just to make sure the projects themselves don't fall behind schedule.

Exactly. Last night, Republican Senator Ben Sass from Nebraska hinted during a Fox News interview that the United States might just be losing its grip on the global stage.

The moves being made by the world's top oil producer, Saudi Arabia, combined with the escalating conflict in Ukraine, could serve as a massive warning sign to the rest of the world, according to the Senator.

Sass went on to suggest that China is actively trying to "push out the dollar," and he warned that the U.S. really needs to stay on high alert regarding that move.

He wrapped up by saying other nations aren't necessarily flocking to China because they like their policies, but rather because they're afraid that "America is weak."

...Regardless, with China and India involved, Western sanctions against Russia are unlikely to be airtight. It also raises the question of whether China, India, and Russia might eventually use this situation to fundamentally reshape the global economic and financial system.

Take Russia, for example. Over the last decade, they've amassed massive gold reserves, most of which they've kept strictly within their own borders. Right now, they control about 2,300 tons of gold, worth roughly $140 billion. But despite how much its value has skyrocketed since the invasion began, they can't really use that gold to maintain the country's external liquidity—partly because of the sanctions, and partly because the West is avoiding any business with Russia altogether. For instance, the London gold market has suspended imports from Russia. Meanwhile, back in Russia, public panic has sent demand for gold through the roof. Elvira Nabiullina, who is incredibly experienced and professional at running the Russian central bank, actually decided to step back from the market just to avoid competing with regular citizens during this gold rush. So, while Americans might buy gold to hedge against inflation, Russians are buying it to protect themselves from a potential crash in the ruble, all while the central bank holds off on buying gold from commercial banks.

This whole setup led Zoltan Pozsar, a highly respected expert from Credit Suisse, to suggest that Russia could potentially leverage its gold stockpiles to bring monetary policy back toward a gold standard. In that scenario, the gold would serve as an anchor for the ruble. Now, that isn't realistic right this second, but just imagine if three powers—Russia, China, and India—decided to pivot back to gold standard principles, while the dollar and the euro remain currencies primarily dependent on the policies of the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank—essentially currencies without a "gold backing."

Russia is in desperate need of an economic lifeline right now. They’re staring down the barrel of massive sanctions imposed by the USA and its allies following that February 24th invasion. It’s getting ugly. The country is actually flirting with a debt default; they have two interest payments coming up this Wednesday. Sure, they might get a 30-day grace period to breathe, but still... how much longer can they keep this up?

Moscow can't exactly get its hands on all $640 billion of its gold and foreign exchange reserves right now, but they’ve still got a chunk of that sitting in yuan. It looks like Beijing might be ready to step in and provide an emergency lifeline if things get desperate..

There’s this growing sense of pessimism over in Washington right now. People are starting to wonder if there's any way to actually steer China away from a confrontation with Russia. It’s hard to stay optimistic when it looks like the whole partnership is being driven straight from the top.

"This is really Xi Jinping's project. He's fully backing this closer partnership with Russia," an American official noted. There’s definitely more skepticism bubbling up through the lower ranks, but let's be honest—Xi and Putin are fundamentally aligned on their view of the USA. They seem pretty hell-bent on bringing an end to the era of American global dominance.

If China decides to back Russia in its standoff with the West, the Biden administration is going to have to pivot hard. The main goal will likely shift toward convincing allies—especially over in Europe—that they need to take a much closer look at their ties with Beijing. To that end, Sullivan is headed to Paris this Tuesday to sit down with the French government. It’ll be interesting to see if they can actually get everyone on the same page.

That said, according to a list compiled by Yale Jeffrey Sonnenfeld and his research team, Koch Industries is just one of about thirty companies pushing back against calls to pull out or scale down operations in Russia. They aren't alone, either. Other names on that list include Reebok, Cargill, Halliburton, LG, Cinnabon, and Subway.

Pfizer is halting investments in Russia, though they'll keep shipping medications

ironmarlin1 said:Not by a long shot! Honestly, the whole notion that being "sincere" is some sort of moral gold standard is one of the most dangerous misconceptions out there. What people are actually starving for isn't mere honesty, but true authenticity. See, the thing about people who claim to be sincere is that they rarely have any clue just how much they are actually kidding themselves. The fundamental flaw in their logic is this shaky assumption—this massive, unexamined premise—that they truly understand their own inner workings and that when they speak about their intentions, those motives are perfectly transparent even to themselves. It’s one of those basic, sweeping errors in judgment that people make all the time.

Arthur Lewis2 said:just use ctrl+scroll up and zoom in until it looks right....