Posts by Nathan Evans78

I’ve always said that force is the only language they actually understand. While all those bureaucrats are busy debating thousands of new sanctions, drones are already dropping right on top of the elite neighborhoods in Moscow. A wave of reality is finally hitting the folks on this forum who genuinely believed that freezing some yachts in the Mediterranean would be enough to sink the oligarchs. ☕

The Ukrainians will probably reach the heart of Moscow before these sanctions ever lead to the gnome’s ultimate downfall.

How much longer do you think this stalemate is going to drag on—another five years? ☕

hollowdriver13 said:So you're telling me that massive money printing and those near-zero interest rates from the Fed during COVID didn't play a role at all?

If that's the case, then wouldn't it be pretty helpful to see an actual, well-reasoned breakdown of inflation regarding the war? I mean, specifically looking at the impact of the war versus the massive surge in the total money supply that happened right before things kicked off—basically, what would inflation look like if the war hadn't even happened?

Thanks in advance.

Look, explain to me how food prices are jumping by 10% to 20% solely because of excessive money printing. Are people suddenly eating two cartons of eggs instead of one just because government subsidies, which were roughly equal to minimum wage, suddenly appeared out of nowhere? That doesn't track.

If you ask me, about 60% of the blame lies with all that cash being pumped into the system during the pandemic and the subsequent destruction of production, while the other 40% comes down to this senseless war and the resulting sanctions.

Tl;dr

If the war hadn't happened, wage growth would have stayed in lockstep with inflation, and we wouldn't be seeing those nasty 5% month-over-month drops.

We’re all just sitting here waiting for those massive collapses everyone keeps promising—you know, those "it's happening any second now" predictions—mostly because we're all just completely exhausted by this inflation.

babarej said:Honestly, why would India even care about what’s going on in Ukraine? It’s just like how most people in the European Union don't give a second thought to the absolute chaos happening across Africa or Asia. Unless there’s a direct benefit or a looming problem hitting their doorstep, why bother getting involved? They have more than enough domestic issues to deal with as it is; that’s where their focus needs to be.

Oh, they'll care soon enough. Once a conflict breaks out over Taiwan, you can bet Western politicians will be sucking up to Indian leaders 24/7, desperate to drag them into some "good vs. evil" coalition. ☕

Man, it’s wild how much these folks in India just don't care about this war one bit.

Even if Russian oil ends up being roughly $15 cheaper per barrel, an Indian refinery processing 200,000 barrels a day would still save about three million dollars daily compared to their competitors in Europe. Over the course of a year, we're talking about savings that exceed a billion dollars.

The Indian Minister of Petroleum, Hardeep Singh Puri, even mentioned back in February that they aren't planning on stopping their purchases from Russia as long as those prices "remain attractive."

RUB/BTC - 0.000000591

"They’re installing barbed wire fences, deploying drones, and setting up surveillance cameras. Europe is being fortified."

The narrative I keep hearing is that Russia is going to be completely leveled—economically decimated, stripped of their oil, buses stalling out because of sanctions, gas exports drying up, a massive brain drain, an aging population left behind, just a collection of failing states everywhere, and potential debt defaults. It's supposed to be total chaos, absolute lockdowns on everything... yet, somehow, they’re still busy building fences.

Is there something our leaders in the EU aren't telling us about future migration plans, or did someone just grease some palms to secure a massive government contract for fencing? Honestly, if Russians and Belarusians actually intended to stage a mass exodus, it wouldn't happen this way. For heaven's sake, migrants aren't just mindless kids wandering aimlessly; they have access to information and know exactly how to navigate the system. ☕

If you take a look at the Shanghai Index https://en.sse.net.cn/indices/scfinew.jsp, the supply chain bottlenecks are actually about 4.5 times lower than they were during those peak periods back when things were truly chaotic over in China.

As far as I can tell, the only real congestion points left are the Port of Long Beach terminals, man... 😁

RUB ISM Manufacturing PMI (February) 53.6

EUR US Manufacturing PMI (February) 46.3

Honestly, it feels like Russia is the one walking away with all the wins in this data set. 🤣

Dow Chemical just announced they’re looking to cut about 2,600 jobs to trim down costs, following a pretty rough end to 2022. The company reported a massive net loss of $5 billion for the fourth quarter alone. It's quite a staggering swing when you consider that during the same period last year, they were actually sitting on a net profit of nearly $950 million.

If I recall correctly, these folks fought against sanctions until their very last breath. ☕

Carl Lee27 said:It’s honestly pretty wild when you think about it—how the USSR actually managed to fall apart, especially since, by almost any metric you look at, it was sitting several rungs higher on the ladder than today's Russia.
And man, that comment about how the West won't let it happen? That is just brilliant. It’s almost funny, really, because it’s as if Americans weren't already doing everything in their power to make sure the collapse of the USSR actually happened.

The USSR didn't just vanish overnight; it took about a decade to fully unravel.

Russia will likely be facing some form of sanctions for at least the next ten years, so we're about to find out if anyone actually learned anything from the Cold War. Personally, I don't think they did, though they seem to be holding their own for now, given the circumstances. If these kinds of sanctions were slapped on 95% of the world's nations, we'd be looking at a total global collapse.

State assets, such as central bank reserves, present a whole host of complicated headaches because they fall under this concept of "sovereign immunity." Essentially, it’s the legal principle that one nation isn't going to just swoop in and seize another nation's property.

In an overview of current legislation published last June in the Capital Markets Law Journal, Paul B. Stephen noted that "under customary international law, sovereign immunity generally protects state assets from seizure."

Well, damn...

Looking at the long-term outlook, the budget is definitely taking a hit, which isn't great. But honestly, since I’m not seeing those chaotic street videos coming out of Moscow, I’m guessing they can probably limp along and patch things up for another couple of years. 😁

wiredseal7 said:Looks like the European Union has cooked up a 'cunning plan' to swipe those frozen Russian funds currently being eaten alive by inflation—they’ll just sweep the Russian accounts clean and "invest" them (which is code for funneling a chunk over to Ukraine).

https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/eu-urged...sets-1.1881709
The little problemcic is that banks aren't exactly rushing to report this, and honestly, some countries might have their own reservations about these schemes.

By the way, calling these accounts "frozen" feels pretty hypocritical at this point.

Realistically, pumping that cash back into circulation is just diluting whatever amount of Euros or Dollars we're dealing with. Let's be real—this money isn't coming back to Russia. Ukraine will spend it immediately, which is basically the same thing as printing and dumping new currency into the market.
It all seems like a convenient smokescreen for the EU (and the US) to keep propping up the Ukrainian economy with massive infusions, all without leaving a politically messy paper trail showing exactly how many billions were drained from EU funds and national budgets.

Now, on paper, this might make sense from a moral perspective and wouldn't directly hit the taxpayers in the European Union, but since it could seriously shake public confidence in the banking sector, I see it as nothing more than a smoke screen.

I mean, today it's Russia, tomorrow it's China, and the day after that, it's the Gulf monarchies...

The Federal Reserve's reserves have officially surged past the $600 billion mark. ☕

From what I recall, the whole point of these sanctions was to shake up Putin’s inner circle and rattle his cage.

But honestly? I’m worried we might just end up seeing Prigozhin installed in power, while all those billions of dollars are just tossed down the drain. 🤣

Nathan Thomas12 said:Right out of the gate, they told us sanctions were a long game. One year is nothing compared to the next 20.

Sure, I get that, but it feels like some media outlets are just moving the goalposts. Even Zelenskyy seems to be struggling to see any actual progress here:

"We're seeing the momentum of European sanctions slow down while, on the flip side, this terrorist state is actually speeding up its ability to adapt to those very sanctions," Zelenskyy noted during a joint press conference with European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen in Kyiv.

hollowdriver13 said:First off, they haven't launched 100 missiles in months.

2. The most recent strike involved 57 launches: 34 Shaheds, 17 KH-55s, and 6 KH-101s.

Are you seriously calling a Shahed or a KH-55 "high-tech"? 😁

2. Fair enough, I might have exaggerated there.

3.

Despite no markings, experts believe the munition uses a computer processor manufactured by the American company Altera, RF modules by Analog Devices and LDO chips by Microchip Technology.[18]

Inspection of captured drones used by Russia during 2022 year Ukraine invasion revealed that The Shahed-136 Electronics were manufactured fra American - and EU-made components, such as a Texas Instruments TMS320 processor and a Polish made fuel Pump on behalf of UK-based company ti fluid Systems.[19]

Harold Nelson6 said:They're swapping out imports for domestic manufacturing—basically turning into a closed economy. Their whole strategy seems to be building up local SOUR brands that can't actually compete on the global stage, but they'll thrive at home simply because there's zero competition. If—or when—Russia ever reopens its borders, all these manufacturers will likely collapse just as fast as those old state-run factories did after the breakup of the former Eastern Bloc countries.

Proof that sanctions are working... ☕

They’re working, sure, but in a very limited capacity. I don't think the people who drafted these sanctions ever imagined this whole situation would drag on for this long.
And while we're talking about "proof," let's look at the reality on the ground: they can still pull off enough low-tech production to keep their war machine chugging along. I remember just six months ago, everyone was predicting their factories would be sitting empty because they couldn't produce even a simple shell without Western inputs. Yet, here we are, watching them launch over a hundred high-tech missiles every few weeks—missiles that cost millions of dollars apiece.