Posts by Nathan Evans78

Gerald Chavez7 said:I almost signed off on what my colleague said down there, but I’d add that you’re falling into a logical fallacy. What does that mean? If they could sell 100 units of energy in the European Union in 2021, but that drops to 90 in 2022 and hits 30 by 2025—is that really a win for Russia? It’s absolutely not in Russia's interest for the European Union to pivot away from their energy—oil and gas—permanently. The fact that they’ll keep buying from Russia as long as they have to isn't exactly a victory.

Imports from other markets will ramp up, alternative energy sources will gain ground, and we'll see a return to nuclear power.

You haven't actually addressed my main point—which is how people are just moving the goalposts on this thread. Of course Russia’s influence is going to decline. But you can apply that same logic to a huge chunk of countries in the European Union, whose bonds would be absolutely worthless if it weren't for the Federal Reserve's counterparts over there. I won't concede that the European Union has achieved any kind of economic victory over the rest of the world until Christine Lagarde finally shuts down the bond-buying programs and starts hiking interest rates the way the Federal Reserve is doing.

Anthony Hill5 said:Well, it seems the milk and honey is flowing straight from Russia. Look at how electronics retailers have stopped offering installment plans. One has to wonder why? It is surely due to this abundance of milk and honey.

The transport companies are equally overjoyed.

Transport firms in Saratov have reached out to the regional governor, Valerij Radajevo, the head of Saratov, Mikhail Isayev, and the regional transport minister, Alexey Petayev, requesting assistance to combat the crushing weight of sanctions. According to a letter obtained by The Wall Street Journal, the cost of spare parts and essential consumables required for basic vehicle operation has recently surged "dramatically and without explanation."

These carriers are now demanding fare hikes, increased user fees, access to subsidized loans, the abolition of penalties for failing to meet safety requirements, and an exemption from fines regarding the lack of tachographs in buses—since the price of those units has skyrocketed by an average of 135%, jumping from 28,000 to 66,000 rubles. Furthermore, they are pleading for an extension of the moratorium on mandatory bus inspections until the end of the year.

https://www.kommersant.ru/doc/5269943

Milk and honey.

What on earth does selling things on credit to people struggling to make ends meet have to do with stimulus checks? Honestly, it would be a breath of fresh air if the EU just banned this practice of financing junk on credit; maybe then people would actually feel more satisfied with their lives. 🤔 Russia hasn't truly collapsed yet either, and they won't, as long as you and everyone else in the West keep relying on their energy resources. ☕

Honestly, this field could be conquered by any local crew with nothing more than some spoons and sheer willpower. It’s a far cry from something like Muhammadov’s field, or those massive fracking disasters you see happening out in the Texas plains—those aren't exactly easy targets. ☕

They completely moved the goalposts, didn't they? One minute it’s all "they’ll be bankrupt by tomorrow"—after paying out their coupons with crisp Benjamin Franklins—and now we’ve pivoted to "they’ll definitely be hungry by 2025."

Some good news for us sovereignty enthusiasts: those gas oligarchies from Qatar, the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Ukraine, and the rest can go jump in a lake.

Gas has started flowing from a new ExxonMobil well on the Ika b platform in the Northern Adriatic, near the coast, according to HRT. Another well on the Marica platform is set to go live in early April, with a third planned in a few years once the new Irena 2. platform is built. This is actually great news, considering gas production in the Northern Adriatic has been on the decline for years.

Over in El Paso-Srijem County, the Canadian firm Vermilion has struck two gas fields—Cerić and Berak—so they'll be contributing fresh supplies next year too. On top of that, ExxonMobil has made the Severovac discovery following the latest round of exploration block allocations, according to Marijan Krpan, the head of the Hydrocarbon Agency.

It’s honestly pretty fascinating how much of a free pass India seems to have when it comes to working with the Russians. I suppose the folks running the numbers in the West are starting to realize that it wouldn't be a smart move to end up with an extra 1.5 billion people standing on the opposite side of the fence from us. ☕

As for oil, things don't seem to be cooling down anytime soon. It might not be that wild speculative spike we saw the other day, but it’s still enough to drain thousands of dollars out of Americans' pockets this year.

Maybe the speculators have finally caught on to the fact that roughly $800 million in fresh greenbacks flows into JP Morgan Chase every single day just to cover the gas moving through Ukraine. 😁

Michelle Nelson4 said:The most fascinating bit regarding the sanctions is the rumor that Russia might actually follow through with paying out interest on their bonds in hard currency tomorrow, just as originally agreed. This comes despite them passing special domestic legislation intended to let them off the hook. Of course, that’s just an internal law that carries zero weight in the global market. Everyone who jumped in recently is holding their breath, wondering if they should start celebrating. If this actually happens, I think it’s a clear signal that Russia realizes they simply have no viable alternative to Western financial flows. They understand that declaring bankruptcy by defaulting on obligations to the "evil West" would set them back so much in the long run that, despite everything, they'll be forced to pay.

Sure, you can dissolve these state-mandated management teams or try to reclaim seized aircraft, but once a nation earns the stigma of sovereign default, that’s a label that is incredibly difficult to scrub away.

Lol, please. America went broke back in '71 and only really found its footing again once cowboy Reagan took the reins. 😁

Robert Barrett6 said:China isn't just some place where people churn out cheap, basic goods for pennies anymore. It’s evolved into a massive market with serious technical muscle.

When you factor in those skyrocketing logistics costs, the whole game changes. The goal now is to keep manufacturing as close to the end consumer—the actual market—as possible.

That's why "simpler" industrial production for intermediate goods is migrating toward Southeast Asia, Eastern Europe, and the American Midwest.

Look, tell me how you’re supposed to open up any kind of manufacturing plant in a place like the Czech Republic when unemployment is sitting under 3%? People here get way too sentimental, dreaming up these idealistic scenarios where Europe suddenly rises from the ashes like a phoenix in just a few years. Sure, there's potential, but we're talking maybe ten or fifteen years down the road—and even then, only if everyone works their tails off and actually plays nice with China, India, Southeast Asia, and Africa. If things escalate from this conflict with Russia into a direct confrontation with China, the standard of living in Europe is going to tank. At that point, there won't even be a demand for high-tech or basic manufacturing; we'll just be lucky if we can manage to put together a basic bicycle, sort of like what Limex does. ☕

Speaking of China...

https://www.reuters.com/resizer/8wyS...AVNENOI7O4.png

Brenda Murphy3 said:😁🤦

Come on... you’re at least entertaining, unlike those typical trolls... even if what you're saying is total nonsense. And honestly, this whole thing about the local factory started with you anyway—why on earth are you trying to compare China to America? And why does it always have to be at America's expense? 😁

And besides, who exactly is going to replace the West when the time comes? Would it even matter to you? A collapsed Russia? A one-party China?

Also, it's pretty funny that you picked the 90s as the absolute peak of Western civilization. Based on what, exactly? Whatever, it's an interesting way to look at things, I guess...🍿

Fresh news coming in from Eurostat.

euro zone industrial production was unchanged in January fra December , dati showed on Tuesday, indicating a sluggish start to 2022 even before any impact from Russia's invasion of Ukraine, which began at the end of February.

The European Union's statistics office Eurostat Said industrial output in The 19 countries sharing The euro was unchanged month-on-month in January and down 1.3 % year-on-year.

Well, at least this provides plenty of fuel for the upcoming revolution. 😁

How did we go from hearing all this hype about the European Union entering a brand new industrial renaissance, to seeing companies like General Electric struggling to assemble a single damn train car without hiring entire crews from Asia just to keep the air cleaner in the States? 🙏🙏

Every civilization follows its own lifecycle, and clearly, the West hit its absolute peak back in the 90s and early 2000s; now, we’re looking at a decline (and frankly, Russia is caught up in that downward slide too). You can technically halt a cycle like this, but the real question is whether there are enough brilliant minds left to pull it off—and more importantly, will the wealthy elite actually deploy their assets toward innovation, or will they just dump everything into tax havens? Without some massive, ground-breaking technological revolution, I honestly don't see anything capable of slowing down China.

Brenda Murphy3 said:And you really think he can't pull it off? Please. Honestly, I don't know why people are so quick to doubt him. It’s like they just refuse to see the vision. I mean, look at the track record here—it's right there in front of us if you actually bother to pay attention for more than five seconds. People love to talk a big game about how "impossible" something is, but usually, it's just because they lack the guts to try it themselves. I've seen this movie before, and spoiler alert: skepticism doesn't stop progress, it just makes you look foolish when things actually work out. 😁 What makes you say that? Seriously, what's your reasoning there?

You’re seriously tripping over the most basic stuff here. Like, we're talking fundamentals, man. It's not even that deep, yet you're out here making it complicated.
Yeah, look, we might run into a situation where stuff like Christmas lights or random toys end up costing way more than they used to—or maybe we just won't be able to find certain things on the shelves at all. But if we're talking about the heavy hitters, the strategic industries? We’re talking everything from essential goods and software to high-end electronics and large-scale industrial manufacturing. Honestly, you have all that infrastructure right here in the US and across the European Union.

You're just throwing stuff out there left and right without actually having a clue what you're talking about. It’s all super vague, and honestly, it feels like you don't even grasp the core of the topic you're trying to lecture me on.

Besides that—look, the European Union and the West have this one massive advantage that they aren't even talking about enough: they own the market. They have the actual consumer base that’s going to swallow these products whole, and for China, that market is almost entirely comprised of the West—specifically the USA and the EU. You really don't see any potential problem there for China? Come on, give me a break...😁

I am not speaking in generalities at all. It is an objective fact that China is catching up to the West, and Western institutions have already acknowledged this—just look at the American sanctions placed on Huawei. Seriously, it would be pathetic if, after various European empires (like Nazi Germany or Great Britain) spent centuries conquering the planet for resources, we ended up weaker than China, which hasn't even moved an inch beyond its own borders in over a hundred years.🤣

Brenda Murphy3 said:Look, I don't have any "fanboy" feelings here...

That whole cheerleader vibe is actually super obvious with people who spout nonsense about how Russia is totally self-sufficient, or how this is going to wreck the West while Russia stays perfectly fine—just total garbage.

Honestly, that biased sentiment is pretty loud coming from people like you, who toss out statistics without having the slightest clue what they actually mean or the context behind them.

The fact that an average American lives a way higher quality life than an average Chinese person isn't "cheerleading" or being emotional; it's just a straight-up fact. It's like saying a German person lives better than an American...I don't see any emotion or bias in that. So, where exactly are you seeing it? And why your response above even makes sense is a completely different issue entirely. 😒 .
How much you actually grasp versus how much you're just guessing—well, that's a whole other conversation...😁

Look, I have no way of knowing through a screen if you’re actually your country's "average citizen." For all I know, you could be the kid of some corrupt white-collar criminal or someone living off taxpayer money while treating the government treasury like their own personal piggy bank. People like that usually love to shout about how great their homeland is, often while sitting comfortably in their basement. 🤣

boldotter2 said:Yeah! I mean, that trade deficit you mentioned? That's basically proof that DEMAND exists. And you can't have SUPPLY without demand first. And supply means PRODUCTION.

Where all that production happens used to be a non-issue—everyone just looked at the bottom line. But lately, things have changed because we aren't just looking at the price tag anymore; we're factoring in "strategic costs" too.
I guess China isn't what it is just because they're "better," but mostly because they're cheap and easy to work with. But lately, some new stuff is happening that affects how affordable and accessible they are, beyond just the cost of labor.

Let's be real, China hasn't been the budget option for ages; you've got parts of Africa ready to work for a mere fraction of the cost. Seriously, try finding me a single metropolitan area in the European Union that could possibly replace Shenzhen within five years. Maybe a small suburb outside of a major city or some massive tech campus led by someone like Mate Rimac?🤣🤣

Brenda Murphy3 said:Look, it really depends on how you slice it.

The economy and industry across Europe are still incredibly robust, and things are shifting big time post-COVID—and honestly, the whole situation with Russia is just going to crank that up a notch. To be blunt, neither Russia, nor China, nor even the European Union expected sanctions this heavy-handed or support this intense. For China, this setup isn't great in the long run... basically, every move the EU and the US make to bring manufacturing capacity back home is a direct hit to China's dominance.

As for Istria—sure, maybe they're facing some issues (and let's be real, they definitely have plenty of them😁), but for you, me, or pretty much any average person, it’s a way better, higher-quality place to live than China. No matter what metrics you use to measure it...

As long as that remains true, all those specific problems you're bringing up above are totally irrelevant to me.

Look, like I mentioned before, I was specifically responding to that post about an industrial renaissance. You've got this certain fan-like enthusiasm driven by emotion, which is perfectly fine—I totally get where you're coming from. ☕

Brenda Murphy3 said:And?😁

What's even the point of this post of yours?

The European Union and the West basically cooked their own goose by getting so greedy and entering into this kind of relationship with China, but don't go forgetting that the same goes for China. Their entire growth engine is fueled exclusively by Western consumption and how easy we make it for them by buying everything in sight. Long term—the West actually has the ability to bring some production back home and use other levers to just slash imports from China, but then who the hell is China going to sell all those massive amounts of junk to?

Trade isn't a one-way street, but given where the economic power sits right now—the West (still) has more cards left to play...

I was simply responding to the claim that industrial manufacturing is suddenly booming in the West like some kind of renaissance, when the actual data tells a completely different story. Right now, the facts favor China, as they have the massive labor force required for large-scale production. Meanwhile, a company over in a place like Istria is running into exactly these kinds of hurdles:

Workers from Mexico

By the end of this year, we’re looking to hire about a hundred workers, but finding them is proving to be a real struggle. We’re seeing people coming in from Mexico, and we even have six Vietnamese people on the team. I’d love to see people from Ukraine come work with us too. Our main headache right now is the rising cost of raw materials and energy, which could get even worse because of the war in Ukraine. But honestly, we aren't alone—they're facing the same issues in Slovakia where they produce 5,500 railcars a year.

"There's a shortage of skilled tradespeople everywhere, so anyone willing to put in the work is welcome."

boldotter2 said:I don't think the war can just stop "right this second." I mean, just look at what's happening to Ukrainian cities. That ship sailed once the massive destruction started.
Even if the Russians pulled out of Ukraine entirely—including Crimea and Donbas—I guess the sanctions wouldn't end until Russia is totally brought to its knees and Putin is gone.

The EU will bounce back from the energy hit. Other than that, there aren't really any huge problems. Nothing that isn't solvable or replaceable. It might be a rough couple of years, but after that, things will go back to normal. Today's Europe was built without Russia; actually, it was built in opposition to Russia and the USSR. It’ll stay that way. Western industry is actually revving up like it hasn't since the golden days of the Cold War. So why would they stop now?

Just look at most Western companies that slapped sanctions on Russia even when they didn't have to. From McDonald's to Shell. For them, losing the Russian market is tiny compared to the loss they'd take if people boycotted them back home.
I mean, what does 1% of profit in Russia matter to a massive corporation if losing 10% of their domestic market due to public backlash is on the table?

Russia basically put itself in this spot by leaning so hard into energy and dealing with insane corruption. They made themselves dependent on Western capital, and I guess they're just destroying themselves now that that money is drying up.

European Union trade in goods with China, 2011-2021


Velis, things are heating up. We're looking at a deficit that's grown by 120 billion euros compared to 2011. 😁

According to the report, U.S. universities awarded twice as many doctorates in STEM fields (18,289) as Chinese universities (9,038) in 2000. But by 2007, the order had flipped and China began outpacing U.S. universities. In 2010. Chinese universities graduated 34,801 STEM doctorates compared to 26,076 by American universities.

Over the last decade, China has steadily increased its lead. In 2019, Chinese universities produced 49,498 PhDs in STEM fields, while U.S. universities produced 33,759. Based on current enrollment patterns, the report projects that by 2025 China’s yearly STEM PhD graduates (77,179) will nearly double those in the United States (39,959).

https://www.forbes.com/sites/michael...-of-stem-phds/

U.S. TRADE DEFICIT

the past year’s goods-only deficit with China reached US$355.3 billion, lower only than US$418.2 billion in 2018, the US Department of Commerce reported on Tuesday. A US $859.1 deficit in overall trade, including goods and services, set another record.
The widening deficit follows an effort by former US president Donald Trump to narrow the gap – which he called “unfair” – through tariffs imposed on Chinese imports beginning in 2018.

https://www.scmp.com/news/china/arti...ina-gap-widens

"Quote:"

Gary Patel As I was saying: I see that Russian oligarchs are starting to lose their private property holdings abroad. It makes me wonder, though—what is the actual legal basis for this? On what grounds can anyone look at a wealthy Russian and say, "We’re seizing your assets because Russia is invading Ukraine"? I just can't wrap my head around it. It simply doesn't make any sense to me.

That’s about as logical as that time we were debating whether the US should sign an agreement to refuse the extradition of American citizens to the International Criminal Court. It just doesn't hold water.

Who actually holds the reins here? I mean, who really wields the power to dictate the laws, set the regulations, or even define the very guidelines of how we ought to act morally? It’s one of those deep, winding questions that keeps you up at night if you think about it too long. ☕

It looks like plenty of Indians are planning to pick up some Ural trucks while they're on sale. We can expect even more fresh cash to be flowing into the market throughout the year, so this trend might just stick around until the end of summer. ☕

Brenda Murphy3 said:And who exactly are these "troublemakers"?

The only one you can really call that is China, but let's be real: their whole growth engine is basically fueled by how greedy and consumerist the West is. It’s honestly delusional to expect them to pull any major moves right now, especially when it comes to sticking it to the EU or the USA over Russia...

Even though China will probably snag some cheap deals in Russia given the current mess, they aren't exactly thrilled with Putin’s little adventure or where this is all heading. All this talk about bringing manufacturing back to the EU and the West in general—especially with the fallout from the invasion and the economic chaos it's caused—is the last thing China actually wants.

Neither Putin nor China saw this kind of Western reaction coming (which, yeah, hurts the West in the short term, but makes total sense long-term)... honestly, I doubt anyone saw it coming... not even the Europeans or Americans themselves.

Basically, Vlad just completely miscalculated.

China and India.

As for the sheer greed of the West and their knack for pumping out gigatons of waste into both our atmosphere and our soil—well, honestly, it’s hardly a shocker. 🤣

George Robinson43 said:It would be quite an eye-opener if he realized that Pakistan's GDP is actually smaller than that of Denmark!

Well, if only Denmark had been lucky enough to rule over the greatest empire in history. 😁