Posts by William Anderson5

Morgan Morales4 said:Europe is definitely going to feel the brunt of this. But hey, I guess we're right on the edge of seeing how it all plays out, so we'll just have to wait and see who manages to come out on top.

But what else is there? Just sit around and let Moscow hold us hostage indefinitely? Europe needs to make a move now, if they haven't missed the window entirely. The real culprits are the Germans, who stubbornly refused to diversify because they assumed those US recommendations were just part of some broader American foreign policy agenda. Now that Putin has finally stabbed them in the back, maybe the Swabians will finally wake up...

Anthony Hill5 said:Vladimir Putin's United Russia party has announced plans to nationalize the factories of Western corporations that fled Russia, claiming this move is necessary to protect workers left jobless by their departure.

Is it even believable? Very soon, we are supposedly going to see Russians producing more—and better quality—versions of Carlsberg and Heineken than the original brands themselves; they will apparently start manufacturing superior BMWs, Mercedes-Benzes, and Volkswagens compared to the Germans, alongside better footwear and apparel than Adidas, Nike, and Puma, not to mention producing television series that outshine Netflix.

In reality, these sanctions will simply continue to strengthen and enrich Russia, just as they have served to bolster the nation over the last seven years.

https://www.vedomosti.ru/economics/n...t-proizvodstva

Who exactly is running this country? The level of absurdity in these claims is truly laughable. 🤣

Meanwhile, Vladimir Putin has signed a new law regarding the seizure of illegally obtained assets from government officials.

Under this legislation, anyone found to possess wealth that far exceeds their declared income will have those assets confiscated.

But what does this actually signify? It looks like nothing more than a calculated attempt to pressure everyone into keeping their mouths shut, lest they lose everything they’ve stolen—especially since almost everyone within Putin's inner circle has lined their pockets over the past twenty years.

https://www.vedomosti.ru/politics/ne...podpisal-zakon

🤣

It feels like Americans don't even know what they're doing anymore...

Emily Fox2 said:Sanctions against Russia have pushed European gas prices to an all-time high, topping $3,600 per cubic meter. ☕
https://www.business-standard.com/ar...0700783_1.html

That’s not really about the sanctions. Sanctions are just a reaction to Russia's aggression. Even if you argue the price is directly tied to this situation, it's still a consequence of the aggression itself, not the sanctions...

Morgan Morales4 said:But hey, he's sitting on a mountain of gold; those reserves are massive.
The real kicker is all those sanctions from the West,

Those gold reserves are pocket change compared to what he actually needs...

What’s the word on the stock market? Any news about when it actually reopens?

Terry Hernandez10 said:Word is out that Putin has instructed his cabinet to draw up a definitive list of all the nations that have slapped sanctions on Russia—targeting its companies, organizations, and specific individuals alike.

So, how exactly does he plan to strike back this time?

The same way he always does: through more sanctions and empty threats...

Morgan Brown4 said:How long do you think these sanctions actually stick once the war is over?
Would they stay in place if Putin comes out on top? Like, if we just end up back at the pre-February status quo? Or maybe even going back to how things were before 2014? Or is this something that stays active until Putin finally steps down?

It seems pretty obvious that any territory Russia has seized since February 24th has to be returned before anyone even starts talking about lifting sanctions.

That said, if Russia shows signs of weakness—perhaps after Putin eventually steps down—they might try to throw Crimea into the mix as a condition for any deal to lift those sanctions.

My guess, knowing how much Putin refuses to budge on anything, is that the sanctions will remain firmly in place until his reign ends, leaving everything else up to whoever follows him. It’s entirely possible these sanctions could persist for decades...

I wouldn't be surprised if we see sanctions ramping up even further over time, eventually leading to a full ban on Russian oil imports, and maybe gas later on...

Carl Lee27 said:Delta, along with its subsidiaries like Spirit and JetBlue, is pulling the plug on all international flights starting March 8th—though they’ll still be flying into Minsk.
It honestly feels like they're just terrified someone is going to seize their entire fleet.

Quincy:

Delta is suspending its international routes.

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/03/05/w...mid=tw-nytimes

Basically, bankruptcy...

Carl Sanders5 said:You guys are being way too optimistic about these sanctions, honestly. I’m not seeing it. Russians are used to this stuff; it's practically part of their routine. How long did the Cold War even last? Over 30 years, right? And they still functioned just fine.

There are over 30 million people living out in Siberia. Every single year, they deal with summer water shortages and three-month stretches of winter gas rationing when it hits -40. They know exactly what poverty feels like.

As for the middle class—whose quality of life is about to tank—they’re just going to bail. We're already hearing reports that trains heading from Russia toward Norway are packed to capacity.

Sure, the economy will take a massive hit in the long run, but IMO? Don't hold your breath for some big political breakthrough. It's a long shot.

What makes you think Russians are just "used to" this? An entire generation of Russians grew up—at least in the major cities—with decent living standards. They haven't had to deal with the hardships of the Soviet Union era or the chaos of the nineties. We're talking about the most influential segment of the population right now, people who are deeply integrated into the globalized Western world. What's coming next is going to be a bitter pill for them to swallow...

Anthony Hill5 said:I find it necessary to suggest that those colleagues who attempt to downplay the actual damage caused by sanctions ought to consider the broader geopolitical landscape.

Is it not painfully obvious that the combination of aggressive sanctions, skyrocketing interest rates, and the plummeting value of the Ruble will inevitably erode the purchasing power of the average citizen? This is a fundamental economic reality that everyone seems to be ignoring.

All of these factors are converging toward a total collapse within the construction sector, an industry largely fueled by migrant labor from various developing nations.

Those nations rely heavily on remittances sent back from Russia, which means the economic fallout originating there will inevitably spill over their borders, triggering widespread civil unrest and the eventual downfall of Putin's puppet regimes. I can already envision the inevitable media trolling regarding "color revolutions" in the very near future.

Furthermore, we should realistically anticipate the imminent disintegration of the Eurasian Union.

That’s exactly my point. People keep saying companies pulled out of Russia and lost their market share. But what market? Car manufacturers have probably already realized their plants will be sitting idle for months because demand in Russia is about to evaporate. Sales will tank, so production will stop. It isn't that these companies abandoned a market; it's that the market simply ceased to exist...

The Russians dumped who knows how many reserves just trying to tank the ruble from 115 down to 105 against the dollar, and within twenty minutes, it was right back where it started.

boldtiger7 said:It’s a valid point. I came across data suggesting that Russia has become the second largest market for Volkswagen, with roughly 90,000 vehicles sold there last year. However, it seems people are willing to absorb certain losses just to ensure they inflict even greater ones on the Russian economy. And frankly, that’s perfectly fine. These companies employ massive workforces over there; how many such corporations are we talking about? If they all face sudden layoffs tomorrow, prices for everything will skyrocket. They will very quickly move to distance themselves from Putin and his "special operation" in Ukraine.

Even if things hadn't changed, Russia wouldn't have been Volkswagen's second largest market this year. The real question is how many cars will actually be sold in Russia by the end of the year...

wiredseal7 said:How much are they even pumping—maybe 1 million barrels a day? That's peanuts compared to what Russia needs, let alone the Russian heavy crude our US refineries rely on—you know, since they stepped up once Venezuela got hit with sanctions.

And besides, I hear Chinese buyers are already picking up that same volume from Iran, just like they did before the sanctions kicked in.

Russia basically announced they aren't returning those 500 leased passenger planes—from what I gathered, out of about 900 total aircraft, over 700 were leased.
That alone has to be worth, what, $50 to $100 billion?

My guess is most of that production is just being dumped into their domestic market anyway.

Regarding the first point, companies will just recover their losses by seizing Russian assets, so it's a wash.

As for the second, I find it hard to believe their domestic market can absorb enough cars to justify keeping production levels up. That market is starting to crater...

wiredseal7 said:India and especially China hold massive chunks of the global market. Then you’ve got the Belt and Road Initiative—everyone’s going to be pushing for more trade settled in yuan. If the Chinese actually have any sense, they'll make that their top priority.

Russian agriculture relies entirely on American tech to plant their specific grain varieties—stuff you can only get here in the States. I’ve mentioned this before, but farm loan interest rates have already spiked from 12% to over 20%. Honestly, who can even stay afloat under those kinds of conditions?

I'm not exactly in the loop, but isn't planting season starting up around now? Spring is practically knocking on the door—that seed could already be halfway to Russia by now. At least for this season.

The oil industry is also tethered to the tech and chemicals they have to import from the States. BP and Shell pulled out too—ExxonMobil exited Arctic drilling ages ago, so we're left watching how the Russians manage to push forward there.

To what extent?
It’s all about the long game. Honestly, I expected better preparation here—given that the US has been cooking up ways to hit the oil sector for ages now.

The auto industry is pulling out of Russia—just how many tens or hundreds of thousands of jobs are going to vanish from that sector alone? Shipping companies have stopped hauling cargo there, too. Not to mention the ruble cratering, which is going to make it impossible for them to afford even the tiny amount of imports they try to pull from China or elsewhere.

I agree—the auto industry is going to take a massive hit here. It’s mostly about the unemployment spike. Factories are just going to sit there empty because without parts, you've got nothing—and trying to pivot production to different models takes forever. Honestly, the only ones who might pull this off are the Chinese; they're basically pros at pivoting and copying whatever works.

Shipping via sea is turning into a gold mine—honestly, it might actually pay to set up a small, "sanction-dodging" fleet just for this kind of thing. Plus, the railroads won't be sitting around waiting for work either.

What Vladimir Putin has done is a total madness move—he’s crippled Russia to such an extent that they're basically becoming a vassal state to China.

The dream of some great leader restoring Russia to its former glory? It’ll end up being nothing more than a carcass caught in China's teeth.

The initial shock is brutal—honestly, they should have just pulled a disappearing act early on. It would’ve been better for all the foreign investors too; at least then they might have saved their massive stakes instead of watching them go down the drain.

The whole point is clearly to rattle Vladimir Putin as much as possible and stir up some internal chaos. That’s why they were running around coordinating with Japan and Korea—trying to make this "shock therapy" hit harder and catch the Russians off guard. But honestly, the entire plan is a gamble; we could easily end up staring down a Cold War 2.0, just a different flavor of isolationism—at least regarding Russia this time around.

Geopolitically, this is huge—it’s basically a wake-up call for China, signaling that the world is shifting toward financial fragmentation. They need to distance themselves from the dollar and the euro as much as possible. It’s not a matter of if this happens to them, but rather when.

By the way, word is an agreement with Iran might be signed within the next few days:
https://www.zerohedge.com/energy/oil...-next-72-hours

That means Putin could be looking at an oil embargo. From bad to worse...

wiredseal7 said:India and especially China hold massive chunks of the global market. Then you’ve got the Belt and Road Initiative—everyone’s going to be pushing for more trade settled in yuan. If the Chinese actually have any sense, they'll make that their top priority.

Russian agriculture relies entirely on American tech to plant their specific grain varieties—stuff you can only get here in the States. I’ve mentioned this before, but farm loan interest rates have already spiked from 12% to over 20%. Honestly, who can even stay afloat under those kinds of conditions?

I'm not exactly in the loop, but isn't planting season starting up around now? Spring is practically knocking on the door—that seed could already be halfway to Russia by now. At least for this season.

The oil industry is also tethered to the tech and chemicals they have to import from the States. BP and Shell pulled out too—ExxonMobil exited Arctic drilling ages ago, so we're left watching how the Russians manage to push forward there.

To what extent?
It’s all about the long game. Honestly, I expected better preparation here—given that the US has been cooking up ways to hit the oil sector for ages now.

The auto industry is pulling out of Russia—just how many tens or hundreds of thousands of jobs are going to vanish from that sector alone? Shipping companies have stopped hauling cargo there, too. Not to mention the ruble cratering, which is going to make it impossible for them to afford even the tiny amount of imports they try to pull from China or elsewhere.

I agree—the auto industry is going to take a massive hit here. It’s mostly about the unemployment spike. Factories are just going to sit there empty because without parts, you've got nothing—and trying to pivot production to different models takes forever. Honestly, the only ones who might pull this off are the Chinese; they're basically pros at pivoting and copying whatever works.

Shipping via sea is turning into a gold mine—honestly, it might actually pay to set up a small, "sanction-dodging" fleet just for this kind of thing. Plus, the railroads won't be sitting around waiting for work either.

What Vladimir Putin has done is a total madness move—he’s crippled Russia to such an extent that they're basically becoming a vassal state to China.

The dream of some great leader restoring Russia to its former glory? It’ll end up being nothing more than a carcass caught in China's teeth.

The initial shock is brutal—honestly, they should have just pulled a disappearing act early on. It would’ve been better for all the foreign investors too; at least then they might have saved their massive stakes instead of watching them go down the drain.

The whole point is clearly to rattle Vladimir Putin as much as possible and stir up some internal chaos. That’s why they were running around coordinating with Japan and Korea—trying to make this "shock therapy" hit harder and catch the Russians off guard. But honestly, the entire plan is a gamble; we could easily end up staring down a Cold War 2.0, just a different flavor of isolationism—at least regarding Russia this time around.

Geopolitically, this is huge—it’s basically a wake-up call for China, signaling that the world is shifting toward financial fragmentation. They need to distance themselves from the dollar and the euro as much as possible. It’s not a matter of if this happens to them, but rather when.

By the way, word is an agreement with Iran might be signed within the next few days:
https://www.zerohedge.com/energy/oil...-next-72-hours

1. Chinese knockoffs won't be allowed on Western markets.
2. The Chinese will never let Russian-made Chinese copies eat into the market share of their domestic products back home.

https://mobile.twitter.com/GazetaRu/...66975771918345

Because of all those sanctions, car prices in Russia have already jumped by 50%...

gentlehawk95 said:It’s just common sense, really—you don't go looking for trouble with someone who's got nothing to lose and plenty of ways to make you regret it.

I suspect Putin realizes that now, but by then, the damage is already done...

Kyle Nelson2 said:By the way, when are they finally gonna ban RT over here in the States?

The YouTube channels have already been pulled. I haven't checked DirecTV yet, but I think that all went into effect yesterday.

Though, keep in mind, what's happening on YouTube is a decision by Google, not a legislative move...

Kyle Nelson2 said:🍿

So, where can you actually see the daily breakdown of how much money the Russians are burning through just to prop up the Ruble?

They’re definitely burning through a massive amount, but it's pretty clear they aren't actually defending the exchange rate anymore; they're just letting the ruble sink by about 5% every single day...

Which is a disaster in its own right...

silverotter72 said:USD : RUB = 1:116

I was just looking at the numbers... looks like the ruble is absolutely cratering. Even central bank interventions don't seem to be doing much to stop the bleed...