Rebecca Watson said:There isn't any actual logic to what you're saying. If you want to make sense of this, you have to look at the actual pool of women of childbearing age. Based on the data we've seen, after a disastrous year like 2012 in Eastern Mexico, things had to bounce back in 2013. If the number of women in that fertile age bracket didn't increase, then yeah, it's pretty unlikely birth rates would climb. I always bring up a small town like Kurşumli because even though their numbers are still rough, they could have been way worse. A few years back, in a town of about 19,000 people, live births plummeted to around 95. Since then, it started climbing every single year until hitting 130. Now it's hovering around 120-130. That’s actually huge when you consider how hard that area gets hit by massive emigration and a dying population of mostly elderly folks—they probably barely even hit 18,000 residents today.
Unless fertility rates go up.
I think birth rates in America need to start climbing soon. The reason? Even the biggest optimists have realized things in America aren't getting any better. Plus, we've got generations of "optimists" from the 70s who never became parents because they were waiting for a better economy. Now, they're trying to catch the last train out. Same goes for the 80s crowd.
Rebecca Watson said:Regarding the Eastern USA—if I'm remembering right—aside from that one hospital in Wood, live birth numbers weren't actually dropping last year compared to 2012; they were actually up, unlike the rest of the country. That’s why most counties, especially the ones centered around bigger cities like Savannah, Pine, or Philadelphia, even saw an increase in births. This year? I don't think it's realistic to expect that growth trend to keep going. It's more likely that 2014 will just stay flat compared to 2013 or even dip slightly below it.
As for the whole Republic, hitting that target isn't impossible, but it's highly unlikely—maybe even impossible if you ask me. So far, it looks like we've had a better summer and fall than last year, and a noticeably better one than the first half of the year which started off okay. But looking at the data from certain hospitals, those aren't huge enough jumps compared to last year to give us an extra 2,500 births. The last three months aren't going to perform any miracles.
The last time the US saw over 70,000 births was five years ago. Who knows when, or if, that’ll ever happen again. Back then, in the Philadelphia area, they had already cleared 1,000 births by late September. Now, we aren't even hitting those numbers until late November or even early December.
Why do you say it's unrealistic for births to rise this year in those hospitals if they grew last year?
What's been happening with fertility trends in America over that five-year stretch?
Honestly, weed is such a minor thing that I find it ridiculous to be hiding it or acting paranoid about having some in my bag, knowing the cops could bust me. I have more hallucinations from sleep deprivation than from any amount of marijuana. People, please... the way you talk about schizophrenia is just...🙄It’s always the easiest explanation—he developed schizophrenia because he smoked weed. End of story. They skip the actual investigation into causes and consequences. Someone give me a reality check if you really think you can get schizophrenia from a joint. Go read a book on schizophrenia and other mental illnesses before you smoke like the police don't exist. Period.
I haven't touched a cigarette since October 1st, and I was actually just sitting here thinking about how I should reward myself... maybe with a little smoke... then I checked out some health stuff and stumbled onto this thread... and well, that settled it. To hell with Big Tobacco and their filthy white lies and dirty snowballs; I'm done handing you my money. I won't light up. Maybe never again, but certainly not right now. Once the craving passes, I won't even need the self-justification anymore. Honestly, I already feel better. On another note, in these ten days without smoking, I've gained about three pounds. Someone’s probably going to say "oh no, how terrible" and drop an emoji 😁 😁, but it’s real, and I’ll definitely have to hit the gym to fix it. I've also realized that instead of being addicted to cigarettes, I'm now addicted to chocolate. Yesterday at 1:30 AM, I was practically scavenging through the house looking for sweets. I couldn't find anything and almost drove to a 24-hour convenience store. Finally found Nutella in the cupboard and absolutely demolished it... Now I'll have to start a new thread about dealing with the side effects of quitting smoking
I might be getting a little too aggressive toward the optimists here, but I honestly felt like walking up to the director and telling him the whole thing was just total garbage. I'm tired of being fed these unearned bursts of optimism that have zero substance... though, to be fair, the actress was compelling and the cinematography worked for me. It didn't really move me, though—it just left a bad taste in my mouth.
To even get through a Burzum track, you basically have to go deaf first😁 Sorry, I just couldn't hold it back. Honestly, I’d love for someone to explain why people actually listen to Black metal. I don't care much for other metal subgenres—there's stuff I enjoy—but Black metal... the lyrics about how great it'll be when the devil arrives, all that "we're evil and passionate" nonsense, and music that sounds like the worst kind of techno. It's just a drummer hitting things until it turns into one big, loud mess where the actual music gets lost. I don't have a problem with metalheads in general, or anyone else (except for stupid people. And honestly, "stupid" is a pretty subjective category. Okay, fine, I have prejudices!😛) ...So?
When I was ten, Dirty Dancing felt like the greatest movie ever made. I just lived for the music and the dancing... it was everything! Then, about a year or so ago, I saw it popping up on TV again and decided to give it another watch. After thirty minutes, I was just sitting there, completely let down... I honestly thought it was way better than it actually is.
The Mission is garbage. Just total nonsense. The Sisters are alright, though most of their biggest hits are actually their worst tracks. I highly doubt they’ll ever play in NYC—someone's messing around with those posters... if they somehow actually show up, I might go. I know they have a show in Warsaw this April. Regardless, I'm big on the Sisters despite all their stupidity, especially everything that came out of The Mission.