Posts by velvetcanyon20

quietviper0 said:Do me a favor and let the folks over at OPEC know that their entire existence is becoming obsolete...
They seem to be under the delusion that market prices are formed solely by the laws of supply and demand, and that they can just tinker with production levels once a month to control things...

But hey, if you go and explain to them that they could simply release 35% more product into the market and automatically earn 35% more money, they might actually reward you for saving them from all those tedious monthly meetings and recalculations...
Who knows, maybe you'd even snag a Nobel Prize in Economics for such a groundbreaking discovery...

Bravo, another absolute gymnast with logic.
We’re talking about one single company, based in one specific country, holding a monopoly over a specific region, producing goods for one sole customer with absolutely no physical way to ship those goods anywhere else because the infrastructure just doesn't exist. And yet, you're trying to compare that tiny scenario to the entire solar system or the scale of OPEC...

If you can't grasp a basic "for dummies" explanation or face the physical reality of the situation, I honestly don't know where you went wrong on your path toward understanding markets and Nobel prizes...

Let's try some simple logic...
If you don't deliver the gas, and you just burn it off as flare gas instead, you aren't collecting any Euros. If there's no collection, there's no profit. Is that complicated enough?

Only people living in a completely parallel reality think that you can just withhold a product and still somehow make money without anyone paying you.
Where does the cash come from?

You don't deliver the gas, you don't get the Euros, but you still turn a profit. It's pure magic... 🤦
Maybe we should just lift all sanctions then, since apparently, you make more money when you don't deliver anything and nobody pays you.

While the rest of us "fools" actually have to do work, deliver products, and collect payments just to stay afloat...
It seems we'd all be much richer if we just sat around doing nothing, delivering nothing, and receiving nothing.
Forget Nobel, you're looking at Darwin... 🤦

rustywalker82 said:I don't think you quite grasp the situation. Sanctions on Russian oil for this year haven't actually kicked in yet; they've just been announced. As for direct sanctions on Russian gas? They don't even exist. What happened was the Russians cut back on supplies, which triggered a total panic on the spot market and sent prices through the roof.
Is your whole philosophy just "we have sanctions, end of story, move on"? You're acting like there's no difference in how they actually work. A sanction is a sanction, right?
Yeah, sure... whatever you say.

That is some pretty intense mental gymnastics right there.
Let’s look at a few facts, and you can just answer me with a yes or no.

The war is a factor that destabilizes markets and prices? Yes or no.
Are earnings actually the same compared to when? Back during the pandemic year?
Sales volume dropped by 30-35% following the introduction of sanctions—that is an objective fact, no way around it.

So you have a drop in volume, yet you're seeing the same dollar amount as during the pandemic.
Was the pandemic year one of record growth or record decline?

There is no spot market, there is no functioning market, there isn't even a pipeline physically capable of moving gas from point A to point B anymore (you could try moving it via a few trucks, I suppose)...

If earnings are, say, 300 units despite the sanctions while volume has fallen by 35%, that implies that without those sanctions, earnings would have been 405 units. 300 billion plus 35%...

A physical drop in volume and goods of 35% means 35% less stuff, which translates directly to 35% less revenue. That is just physical reality.
Then you have to add in the number of shuttered businesses and lost jobs, not to mention 20% inflation.

Therefore, focusing solely on the revenue figure is selective and serves a specific Narrative.

(Comparing this to the Corona crisis)....
Last year I made $33, and this year I made 103 dollars. See? I'm doing better. If we use that kind of logic for propaganda, then sure, things are looking great. You're absolutely crushing it.
But we conveniently ignore the fact that your wife and half your neighbors lost their jobs, that inflation is up 20%, and that your neighbor 62 miles is still making $100 while you're working part-time... 🤦

The Narrative being pushed is that all Europeans are just naive little maids who will eventually conclude that they should take to the streets to demand the lifting of sanctions—simply because they see that everything is fine, or even better, that they're making more money.

But it goes deeper than that. You have a country of 40 million people living without indoor plumbing, yet they supposedly have higher wages than Rhode Island.
And that's according to official data from a nation that has been fighting an information, cyber, and propaganda war for the last ten years, and is now facing a conventional one. 🤦

rustywalker82 said:The official one. And look, when you're dealing with the official rate, that's what you use to buy everything from Russia—energy, raw materials, fertilizers, grain, all that stuff—and vice versa for imports. You can't just grab black market currency and then try to play it straight with the goods. If there's a different rate floating around on the street, it definitely isn't because of energy sanctions. From what I've seen, the Russians have been pulling in just as much cash from energy sales as they were before any sanctions even hit.

The bottom line is this: with the money Europeans basically threw away to the cartel this year because they didn't know better, we could've bought missile defense systems for the entire world, not just for Ukraine.
And my point is, people have been saying this since day one. It’s not some "hindsight is 20/20" thing being shouted by generals after the battle is already over.

Now, this is where the mental gymnastics get really intense... the idea that you impose sanctions on a country and somehow end up making them wealthier.
🤦
You stop sending them billions of dollars every month for gas, so they just flare it off instead, yet somehow they end up with more cash in hand. It's pure magic...
The gas burns, the dollars don't arrive, and yet they just keep getting richer... 🤔

rowdytiger13 said:Lavrov used to actually look like a diplomat. Now he’s just a mouthpiece for a mad dictator. Medvedev is probably even lower if that's even possible.
It's pathetic how much the Russian representatives have degraded themselves.

There isn't anything sad about it, nor has anything really changed.
Everything is exactly the same as it has always been...
It seems like your eyes have finally been opened, and now you're seeing things differently because those illusions you might have held regarding the Russians have been shattered...

Nicole James said:The invasion of Ukraine is an irrational move that threatens the very survival of Russia as a country—mainly because of the internal unrest it triggers, and because it leaves them in a position of extreme vulnerability compared to neighboring China.

It is almost impossible to predict moves made by people who act so obviously irrationally, or who seem driven by illness or dementia. I’d say it's more like that guy who predicted the last two economic crises and fifteen other ones that never actually happened.

It’s deeply irrational. Honestly, it’s gotten to the point where if you look at any serious geopolitical writer from the last two decades, they’ve all basically argued that the only way to truly weaken Russia is by forcing them into this exact conflict with Ukraine.

The moment those paratroopers started dropping, I remember thinking... that was the day Russia lost.
There’s just no realistic way to hold 40 million people against their will without a massive logistical backbone.
For Russia, territory has always functioned as their defensive depth—a sort of buffer zone.
But looking at the numbers? Nothing is going their way. They don't have the population base, and their economy isn't up to the task.

We really ought to be looking at deeper analyses—the kind that project out twenty years or more.
It’s obvious the Americans are putting immense pressure on them. Perhaps there was a deep-seated belief in Moscow that this was a "now or never" window—a chance to make a move that would secure their standing for the next fifty years or so.

Sadly for them, the Americans are reading the room too. It’s clear to everyone that Putin is essentially a disciple of Dugin and his theories. Today's Russian rhetoric sounds exactly like Dugin back in 1997...
And back then, he was adamant that without "resolving" Ukraine, there's no point in even discussing continental politics. And well... here we are.

rapidnomad322 said:Honestly, I was just thinking about writing something almost exactly like that! I'm a government employee myself, and my paycheck is actually under $1667 (not that it's my fault, right?) ☕ It feels like even the ladies working at the local Target might be pulling in more than me, though realistically, the level of work, the responsibility, and the specialized knowledge involved isn't really comparable—and hey, I’m totally happy for them if they’re making more, I truly am!

Are we talking about full-time hours here, or a part-time schedule?

There’s a lot of strange, almost nonsensical logic behind this latest move from Russia.
In my view, Putin has essentially lost the war and left Russia permanently crippled. If anyone was still clinging to the fantasy that this would be some sort of bloodless, low-casualty version of Crimea 2.0...
well, I think those illusions have officially evaporated.

We’re looking at a much tougher, more uncertain year ahead, and let’s be honest—these sanctions are going to hit everyone's wallet.

As for that whole situation involving the Turks... they were already buying oil under the table from ISIS, so you can bet the trade and barter will continue. Grain will keep flowing out, dollars will keep flowing in... they’ll find a way to strike a deal behind closed doors...
The only real shift we might see is a change in how goods move. Prices could spike if everything has to go through "official" channels, because instead of direct deals with the Russians, everything will end up being routed through China.

If we’re going to talk politics, we really have no choice but to dive straight into geopolitics.

The nation we call home officially came together on July 1st, 2013.
Where do we stand right now, where are we headed, and what does the horizon look like in 2030 or even 2050?

To start with, our geostrategy feels pretty much set in stone. It follows a very simple "take it or leave it" philosophy.

Our membership in both NATO and the EU has certainly cemented our standing on the global stage.
But it makes you wonder... can we actually maintain an independent foreign policy separate from the EU's direction? How do we leverage our position within the Union to push our own specific goals? What exactly are those goals, and what truly constitutes our national interest?
Are we actually prepared for the possibility of the EU fracturing? Or the idea of NATO dissolving entirely?
What if that happens?

Energy security, the economy, defense, infrastructure, our international standing, potential alternatives to the EU, how we navigate internal EU dynamics, development trends, and keeping a close eye on global shifts—these are all the pillars we should be discussing. But above all, the conversation needs to focus on one thing: how to become as self-sufficient as possible, as quickly as we can...

Amy Rogers6 said:mhm—because censorship, control, destroying entire nations, stepping over bodies, and total dehumanization are just so incredibly "smart"—pure genius, really...

By the way, since we're talking about "selection," George W. Bush is basically the gold standard for eloquence...

If I wrote what I actually think about this, I'd be drinking straight from the box.

The things you're describing happen where the Trilateral Commission operates, or wherever those inner circles hold sway. Think about the former Eastern Bloc, Russia, the Caucasus, the Middle East, and so on...
In places where there is actual reason, civilization, culture, and education, people with similar interests tend to band together, and you don't see that kind of chaos. That's because there is a shared interest: peace, stability, prosperity, and growth. People naturally strive for more, both as individuals and as a community...

urbanotter said:True masters of their own destiny 🤦

When you consider that America represents such a massive slice of the global economy, our domestic influence over these international matters is practically negligible compared to something as trivial as a hotel concierge.

Our local representatives are basically just messengers; they’re there to relay decisions that have already been finalized in meetings that the public isn't even allowed to attend.
In my view, the most influential figures among us would be Luković, followed by Tedeschi.

Sure, but do you actually sit at the table with them? Do you really know who holds the real power? Just look at how a single visit to the USA can land someone on a blacklist—that's what real influence looks like...
And honestly, it is infinitely better to be informed and involved than to be left completely in the dark, wandering around like a lost soul in the fog...

The Trilateral Commission isn't some conspiracy by the USA to bring in people based on negative selection. If we actually had our rights respected—say, if we were entitled to ten representatives in the Commission and at least six or seven seats in Congress—most of this 90% nonsense would have been settled ages ago. I mean, if the old regime had sent people with actual substance to those meetings, they probably could have bypassed the entire bloody mess of the nineties and moved forward peacefully... just playing devil's advocate here, exploring alternatives...
I’m skipping the video; I don't have the stomach for idiots, and honestly, I’ve rarely heard two intelligent things come out of Congress. Whatever Bulj is rambling about doesn't really seem to involve much brainpower. Some people might get fired up by that kind of trash, but if you ask me, he's just one of the most incompetent people in the building.

It’s all just "what if" this and "maybe" that. If these things actually exist—if plans are truly being drawn up behind closed doors—you really don't want to be left out in the cold. Because if you don't have a seat at the table, you're essentially flying blind. You won't know what's coming, and you certainly won't have any way to change the outcome. You won't even know who to talk to...
When you have access, you actually understand the landscape, and more importantly, you gain a level of influence. It’s much better to be the one holding the reins of your own fate rather than just a puppet on a string, completely unaware that someone else is pulling the wires...

Just some thoughts on this... the idea that the Trilateral Commission actually exists isn't news, nor is it some shocking revelation. The machinery behind it all feels entirely impersonal, and honestly, I think Adam Smith hit the nail on the head when he said

People of the same trade Selda meet together , even for merriment and diversion

- it really is.
The only real question worth asking is whether we’re better off having our own people inside those circles, or if it’s better to stay away entirely. Are we the subjects or the actors? To me, there shouldn't be much of a dilemma there...

That’s exactly why we went with Kolinda Grabar-Kitarović. She represented a clear commitment to integration—opening up so many doors and providing access to the kind of influential circles that matter...
We're talking about people who wouldn't even get a seat at the table if someone like Barack Obama were running the show in the US.

The banks, the media, the political establishment—they’re all moving in the same direction. Honestly, I don't see anything wrong with being part of those elite groups; in fact, I’d argue it’s a massive advantage. Take Kolinda Grabar-Kitarović, for instance; I might not have even cast my vote for her if she wasn't part of the Trilateral Commission, or if we hadn't been forced to deal with that whole election farce. Though, then again, maybe I still would have... it's just painful watching these local amateurs stumble through politics when they aren't even in her league. At best, they're six levels below her caliber...🍿