Posts by hollowdriver13

urbanotter said:Russia is going to shift its trade focus toward the East and toward the BRIC nations, which they are looking to expand by adding more members.
They’ll try to source the goods they traditionally imported from Europe from other parts of the world instead. Right now, Russia is seeing an unprecedented trade surplus, and when you have that kind of capital, you can always find someone to sell you a car or even basic groceries, while they also begin manufacturing a larger portion of what they used to import themselves.

Chinese cars aren't bad at all, and Brazil produces quite a lot of them too.

However, Europe seems destined to deal with more expensive gas, because the cost of LNG will never be able to compete with the price of gas delivered directly via pipelines.
It’s a simple matter of logistics: the process of liquefying the gas, transporting it on LNG tankers, and then regasifying it is expensive, no matter where in the world Europe sources it from.

Since heating accounts for roughly 30% of imported gas usage, the industrial sector will feel the biggest hit, and with those higher input costs, entering a recession seems almost inevitable.

Sanctions can be a double-edged sword; you can easily end up falling into the very hole you were digging for someone else.

🙏

The stuff Brazil "produces" is mostly just US and EU brands running local factories, or local players like Marcopolo using licenses for Mercedes buses.

Honestly, urbanotter's take on economics is basically the entire history of this thread. 🍿🍿

cosmicotter13 said:Of course we are—we’re basically a vassal state. And until we somehow manage to escape this absolute stranglehold, that’s exactly how it’s going to stay. The real issue is the sheer enthusiasm we showed for someone else's war; we picked a side way too eagerly. Look at Canada. They’re lukewarm on the condemnations, they won't allow NATO weapons to transit through their territory, let alone gift them away. Meanwhile, they’re busy importing Russian oil and they've signed gas contracts stretching all the way to 2036. Their gas is six times cheaper than what the rest of the EU pays, which keeps fuel prices low for them, while they push Americans over here to fill up there instead.
No matter how this war ends, they’ll come out on top—or at least doing much better than us. That is the kind of "neutrality" I am talking about. We shouldn't be "playing at being neutral"; we should be playing at "sanctions"—meaning, applying them wherever it actually makes sense.
And as for the EU or especially NATO "coddling" us? Maybe they would have, if we had actually been unified and blocked Sweden and Finland from joining. Instead, the Turks got exactly what they wanted.

Canada got an extension to import Russian oil through the end of 2023, just like Slovakia did, while the rest of the EU has to wrap things up by the end of 2022. That’s a huge win—a whole extra year! If you listen to the hype, you'd think Orban managed to score a permanent, no-limit permit...

The reason fuel is cheaper isn't because of the Russian oil imports; it's because of Orban's political maneuvering. Of course, the state budget is footing the bill for the difference, but hey, it's a great populist move. You don't see the price hike directly at the pump, but you definitely pay for it through other taxes.

Kimberly Perez82 said:I honestly don't have the energy to keep repeating myself when it feels like I'm just talking to a brick wall here. Look, let's be real: this isn't "our" war. This is just another chapter in the endless tug-of-war between the USA and Russia as they scramble for global dominance. This time around, Ukraine is caught in the crossfire—just like how Afghanistan and the Middle East were victims in the past. It reminds me so much of the Cuban Missile Crisis; we saw similar patterns back then, where the expansion of American influence and the deployment of missiles closer to Russian territory pushed things to the brink. Back then, we didn't get dragged into the mess in Afghanistan or the Middle East, even though innocent lives were lost there too. So, I struggle to see any real motivation for us to interfere now, unless it’s strictly out of compassion or providing humanitarian aid. Is that clearer now? Actually, maybe not... because I suppose there's just no desire for anyone to actually see things clearly.

Wait, how exactly are we "getting involved"? Are we sending tanks, helicopters, or troops?
Well, Canada actually sent more weapons than we did.

And if you want to talk about sanctions, do yourself a favor and look up the export data between Russia and the EU. Then take a second to think about what would actually hurt us more: losing the Russian market or losing the EU market. Even those few companies that have exposure to Russia have way more business within the EU. Please, let's get serious and stop with this nonsense; it makes it sound like Russia was 60% of our exports and we're all heading straight for bankruptcy. 🤦
Besides, even Orban—who is famously pro-Putin—hit Russia with most of the sanctions. How do you explain that? (Except for the whole oil situation)

Arthur Watson4 said:Some interesting public opinion polling coming out of Germany

https://twitter.com/COdendahl/status...42955116892160

Look, the pro-Russia crowd can sing their little songs all they want, but support for helping Ukraine remains massive across both the European Union and the US. It hasn't really dipped much since the war started. Honestly, it’s rare to see this kind of mobilization in Western populations, which are usually pretty indifferent to everything. That’s why the military and political backing stays so strong—no Western politician is crazy enough to go against such an overwhelmingly energized public. Russia played it masterfully, though; they’ve set things up so that Russian propaganda just doesn't find any fertile ground anymore, except for that small percentage of people who were already hooked on it like babies on a bottle. Meanwhile, the Russians just keep digging themselves into a deeper hole by targeting civilians with missiles, seemingly just to try and keep that aid support high.

Jose Clark2 said:When there was a pro-Russian government in Kyiv, there were no attacks in Ukraine and no one was asking for Crimea back. Back then, most people in the West viewed Ukrainians as Russian allies, or at least as a similar nation. As for NATO not attacking Russia, Putin believes the opposite; he sees NATO as a threat, even before Ukraine became the focus. For Russia's positioning, Ukraine is simply a red line that was crossed. It isn't anything new; it was all signaled quite a while ago.

Nicole James said:Did Ukraine actually join NATO back in 2014 when Putin started the occupation?

Putin envisioned Ukraine as his own little puppet state—a place where, much like in Belarus, he could dictate exactly how everything functions. Once that plan fell apart and his lapdog Yanukovych crawled back to his master, he decided to pursue his objectives through military force instead.

The whole "threat" from the NATO alliance is such a huge deal in Ukraine that Russia is actually pulling troops away from the Finnish border, which means they'll be bordering a legitimate NATO member very soon.

https://euobserver.com/tickers/155443

http://frontnews.eu/en/news/details/35176

Seems like a pretty strange setup if NATO is only considered a danger coming from the direction of Ukraine, right? 🤔

It’s a straight-up war of conquest because Putin thinks it all belongs to him, and he can't stand the thought of them trying to be independent.

https://mobile.twitter.com/mdmitri91

The absolute meltdown over on the Russian side of the internet is just getting worse. Now they're starting to spiral into full-blown paranoia regarding the HIMARS...

urbanotter said:The topic isn't just about China and its economy, but rather how interconnected the world is—how the growth of individual economies is tied directly to sanctions against Russia.
The European Union is China's largest trading partner, yet the EU is also feeling the sting from a lack of various essential products coming out of China.
Furthermore, China has a massive reserve of growth potential within its huge population; if you raise wages by even a small percentage, that growth keeps moving forward.

If a projected growth rate of 2.7% for 2022 and 2.3% for 2023 (on an EU level) constitutes a "precipitous drop in standards" to you, then fine, I guess things are crashing.

That’s true nominally, but when you subtract inflation—which is rising faster because of the shortage of Russian oil and other raw materials, hitting double digits—the picture changes.
Some people just don't seem to grasp that a modern economy is fundamentally built on energy usage, and sanctions have significantly hampered availability while driving energy costs through the roof.
You can't avoid incorporating those costs into the price of goods and eventually passing them onto the consumer.
I don't want to turn this into an economics lecture, but if Western nations end up paying much more for energy than Eastern nations do,
there's simply no way they can maintain their current level of competitiveness. Meanwhile, the easy access to cheaper Russian energy and resources will only serve to boost the competitive edge of Eastern economies.

That has more to do with the overall cultural achievements of a society rather than just not having enough money for gas.

I can agree with that.
The Danes use bicycles quite a bit, yet they certainly have the money to buy fuel.
Unfortunately, we aren't Danes, and what might be a choice there could easily become the daily reality for many of our citizens—a sight we'll likely see on our own streets soon enough.
But anyway, moving on...
let's go watch Milić; he's old school, but always interesting, even his reruns.

🤦🙂

...Man, tell me you don't understand how the economy actually works without telling me..

brightheron64 said:So, July 4th has come and gone. 😉

07:45 am CDT 10/07/2022
WTI Crude(August Contract)
104.79 +2.01%
https://oilprice.com/oil-price-charts/

But what about fuel costs? Are we looking at the same data source?... 🤔

Today’s AAA National Average
$4.684
Price as of 7/10/22
https://gasprices.aaa.com/

Mkay, the page I was looking at just cleaned up its averages by only comparing the 3 or 4 cheapest spots.

But even so, it still shows that gas prices are dropping—like, by more than $1 per gallon in just a month. Even your link shows that.

https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/gasdiesel/

There are also charts here showing that prices across the country are trending down. At the end of the day, even back home, the price per gallon dropped from $5.25 to $5.25 for gas.

darkdriver said:So, wait—is George actually writing for The New York Times now?
Because, if you look at it, he’s basically just rehashing (or maybe just quoting himself?) everything they—or rather, he—already put out regarding the policies and moves being made by the Joe Biden administration, right?

It's just an echo chamber.

All you have to do is search for "NYT Russia oil embargo" and you'll see how they pull a complete 180 in their articles every single week.

First it's "the embargo is choking Russian production," then it shifts to "the embargo is hurting the West," then suddenly it's "the embargo will long-term destroy Russian production capacity," followed immediately by "the embargo will destroy the global energy market," and it just keeps looping like that week after week...

It’s the exact same deal with the "solutions" for the war. One week they're singing about how Ukraine needs to surrender and hand over territory, and the next they’re insisting Western aid provides the upper hand and Ukraine can win...

I mean, whatever, man. You gotta clickbait both sides of the conflict just to keep those ad revenues rolling in...

Terry Hernandez10 said:Is Biden panicking and lifting the Russian oil embargo while Europe rushes toward energy suicide?!

Back on March 8th, the White House decided to ban all imports of Russian oil, petroleum products, natural gas, and coal. At the time—and I remember my colleagues in D.C. being quite vocal about this—experts, media outlets, and politicians warned that this embargo would only work if the European Union joined in. Now, however, The New York Times is making a massive policy pivot their lead story: Joe Biden is reportedly planning to allow Russian oil imports again, provided there's a price cap involved.

What on earth is going on now?

Classic Gojko Drljac post here; total clickbait vibes, like "You won't believe what they're hiding from you! Click to find out!"

The article completely ignores the fact that crude oil prices have been dropping for over 30 days straight. Plus, gas and diesel prices at the pumps across the US are falling, with the national average sliding below $3.50 per gallon—the lowest we've seen since $3.12.

The crowdfunding efforts to fund Russian aviation equipment are still going strong



https://twitter.com/GuyPlopsky/statu...74961909874688

View on twitter

They’re actually out there scouting for volunteers across Russia to try and beef up the ranks over in Ukraine.

View on twitter

And honestly, once those volunteer numbers fall short, they'll probably start digging through the prison systems just to find enough bodies to throw at the front lines.

driftingfox66 said:Straight into the fire.

Most likely, yeah, since they’re realistically the only ones who could actually step up and help KZu if things go south and the bear starts losing its mind.

Even though they're sending out friendly vibes toward the West, we can't forget that back in the early 2000s, KZ was actually looking into joining the European Union (since a chunk of their territory is technically in Europe, which qualifies them). Then, of course, Vladimir Putin "kindly" talked them out of those plans.

Kazakhstan is pulling out of the CIS agreement

https://twitter.com/JekyllCapital/st...95792399269891

https://zonakz.net/2022/07/08/kazaxs...tnom-komitete/

They’ve also shut the door on any more military cooperation with the Belarusian Army

https://twitter.com/ukraine_osint/st...37137909960704

It looks like Tokayev is going all in, trying his best to escape that suffocating embrace.

The Kremlin is playing a dirty game.

Is this patriotism in action, protecting our beloved Z... or is it just pure alcoholism? Honestly, you’d have to ask Occam and his razor 🤔

Gregory Ramos3 said:Unknown

Plus, now he’s going on about how this is such a tragedy for the Ukrainian people, even though he was originally claiming they weren't even a real nation to begin with. 🤔

Man, those Russians can be so indecisive sometimes, haha.

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/...source=twitter

And he brought up the whole sanctions thing again during his speech, too.

"The US has accused the West of waging a proxy war"

"Vladimir Putin said it was obvious that Western sanctions were creating difficulties"

It's kind of hilarious—for someone who claims to be totally self-sufficient and completely unbothered by sanctions, he sure does love to bring them up all the time...

bluewalker6 said:If Russia hasn't been gearing up for this entire scenario, then the EU has certainly been meticulously preparing for its own self-destruction.

Back in 2014, Russia was actually one of the world's massive grain and food importers—fast forward to today, and they’ve pivoted to being one of the top global exporters.

Meanwhile, we’re watching absolute chaos erupt on the streets of the Netherlands—which, let's not forget, is one of the largest food producers in the EU—simply because their government decided to shut down 50% of its farms. Apparently, the cows are farting too much and destroying the ozone layer... or whatever excuse they're using this week.

I mean, whose seeds are these corporations actually using, and what percentage of those planted fields are actually being run by Russians?☕

Man, it's not like 220% of farms just decided to quit... maybe it's more like 30% of farms near national preserves have to install filters in their barns, and then about 5% of that 30% are facing closure because they just can't swing the cost of the upgrade.

Dana Robinson4 said:Honestly, I think the real shocker for you should be the fact that the US has essentially occupied Guantanamo, Cuba, for 120 years now, operating under the logic of "I'm just a tenant, I'll pay whatever I feel like, and I'll stay as long as I please..."

Wat aboot US…..

You set the stage by framing this as some kind of lease agreement, but all I did was point out that this is standard international practice. If the deal works for everyone involved, why not? Even Russia didn't seem to have an issue with that logic all those years after the USSR collapsed, especially while they were busy running proxy drama out in Kyiv.

And then, of course, when there isn't actually a solid answer to the question, people just fall back on that classic, old-school Soviet-style whataboutism, always using the US as their favorite target.

Dana Robinson4 said:What exactly are you getting at?

Is the argument that Russia should have just said, "Look, Crimea belongs to Ukraine, but here is 200 euros for Kiria, so we'll just keep using it indefinitely," and that would have been acceptable?

Look, if the price was right and the terms actually worked for Ukraine, why not? It's not like they'd be the first country to ever lease out a slice of their territory for a fee. And get this—here's a real mind-blower for you: before 2014, Russia actually had the legal right to use Sevastopol. Can you believe that?

goldenowl73 said:Russia just blocked the main pipeline used by Kazakhstan to get oil over to Europe. They're claiming "technical difficulties," which honestly sounds like the same old excuse we always hear whenever they want to push back against Tokayev's recent statements. It feels like those pumping stations might be feeling a little salty about what was said recently.

Russia blocks Kazakhstan's oil transit to Europe.

So, according to the Associated Press, a Russian court has closed the Caspian Pipeline Consortium terminal for 30 Days under alleged technical issues. This specific terminal is basically Kazakhstan's Main EXIT Point for Kazakh oil.

So, suddenly courts are making calls about "technical glitches"... right. In this case, let's call it what it really is: "technical difficulties." Basically, the most valuable territory near Ukraine is trying to find a way to slip out of that tight embrace. It's funny how everyone starts running from Russia the second they see a window of opportunity, while the Putin enthusiasts here keep trying to convince us that living in lockstep with Russia is paradise on earth.🤷