Posts by hollowdriver13

https://twitter.com/MarkHertling/sta...C-sYHp5_UpAAAA

Check this out. A retired US Army Lieutenant General breaks down why dropping high-tech Western gear into the mix—stuff Ukraine hasn't really touched before—is such a massive headache. It’s basically his take on all those questions about why the US isn't just sending over M1 Abrams, Patriots, or F-15 Eagles right away. He also touches on the logic behind hunting for anyone still running old USSR-era hardware who might be willing to pass it along instead.

Joseph Clark37 said:I honestly don't understand why there's such a delay in delivering equipment like MiG-29s, various types of former Soviet armor and artillery, new drones, anti-ship missiles, extra air defense systems, and hundreds of tons of infantry gear and ammo. All of this was needed yesterday just to give the Ukrainian military any real maneuverability. Otherwise, it’s only a matter of time before the Russians encircle the east and keep pushing south...

Look, the F-16 is an air superiority fighter with pretty limited capability when it comes to hitting ground targets—and even then, they need a ground crew to mark those targets for them. Then you've got anti-ship missiles and air defense systems that are way more advanced than just basic MANPADS; those are complicated setups. It's not necessarily hard to fire them, but keeping them running is a whole other story. You have to train technicians for months, and they need to be maintaining this stuff around the clock. That’s probably why everyone is scrambling to find ex-USSR equipment from different countries and seeing who's willing to donate it, likely getting reimbursed later by the USA or NATO. For example, the Czech Republic is sending T-72s right now, and there's talk that maybe Slovakia or Greece might hand over their Patriot missile systems. Plus, the US Department of Defense already announced they're training Ukrainians outside the country on these more complex systems. It sucks, but unfortunately, that kind of training takes time.

https://twitter.com/EllieCKaufman/st...76961342439427

Looks like those weapons from that $800 million aid package are finally starting to roll in.

So, remember how those big corporations were talking about needing maybe five or six weeks to pivot their operations? Well, look at what’s happening now. Shopping malls are starting to look like ghost towns. And before anyone jumps in to say, "Hey, they can survive without all that Western consumerism," let's be real for a second—what happens to all the people working in those stores? You've got massive job losses, less sales tax hitting the government's pockets, and landlords losing out on rent. It's a total domino effect.



The used car market is absolutely cratering, too. Every single brand that pulled out of Russia basically locked down their service software and cloud access, leaving local shops and customers totally stranded. Inflation already sent used car prices up by 30% from the start of the year until the invasion hit, and then they shot up *another* 30% after that. We're looking at a 60% price hike since January 1st just because there aren't any new cars coming in, and nobody knows if they ever will. Honestly, even the used car dealers are hesitant to sell what they have right now, thinking the value might actually climb even higher soon.

Andrew Miller102 said:We can't survive without Russian gas, so if they turn off the tap, everything goes to hell.☕

https://www.reuters.com/article/ukra...-idAFL2N2W10HE

https://www.reuters.com/business/ene...ys-2022-04-04/

Can someone drop that more recent article where the PM basically told them they can blow all they want, because there's no way they're seeing any payments in rubles.

https://twitter.com/Orion__int/statu...04542222876673

Check out what the skies over the Ukrainian border look like from the perspective of some NATO flights between March 13th and 31st.

George Robinson43 said:And there you have it! They'll be remembered as the fools who let their leadership turn into little puppets for Russia, especially since nobody spoke up when it became clear the Chancellor was handed multi-million dollar cushy jobs in Moscow once he retired.

And people act like the dream of landing a sweet government gig where you do absolutely nothing is just some weird thing in the North America. 🕺 😬

placidrider48 said:Honestly, if they can just get enough replacements for those lost S-300 and buk systems, that’s probably plenty. I guess training people on how to run "heavyweight" Western air defense tech would take forever anyway, right?

https://twitter.com/MarkHertling/sta...C-sYHp5_UpAAAA

This is such a solid thread on why rolling out new weapon systems to countries currently in a war zone is so complicated. It’s not just about teaching operators which buttons to push—there’s a whole mountain of logistics and maintenance involved. Getting those high-end systems fully operational is a much longer game than most people realize.

Nathan Evans78 said:Boeing could actually see some real profit here; once winter hits Germany, the demand for sweaters is going to skyrocket.

So what, did they tighten the valves in Russia too much, and now we can't even turn them?
Man, Putin really left us hanging...🤔

feralcanyon73 said:Man, that gas price per ruble has gotta be some kind of April Fools' joke.
There's no way they'd actually tank their own economy like that, especially since the European Union wouldn't even blink at the impact.

Hey, feel free to drop a link showing where the European Union actually agreed to pay in local currency.

Less complaining, more evidence please. ☕

feralcanyon73 said:So, is natural gas actually going to save our butts or what? ☕

Every single time you drop a one-liner while sipping your coffee, this happens.



When is Mariupol actually gonna fall? It’s been "just a few hours away from falling" for three weeks straight now...🕺

Nathan Evans78 said:USD/RUB at 81? Now we're talking! lol

At this rate, once those Kremlin big shots lose their funding, we'll all be living on nothing but cheap deli sandwiches again.

P.S. Honestly, you should ask them how they even manage to fake that exchange rate. Here’s a little hint: they ban selling foreign bonds, force every single business to dump their hard currency straight into the Central Bank, prohibit regular citizens from accessing foreign cash, and slap on 20% interest rates. Just wait until that whole bubble finally pops... 🕺

coastalmarlin64 said:What's the verdict? Any thoughts?

Honestly, we’ve been saying this for ages—this whole thing isn't actually about some "NATO threat" or a "weakened Russia." At the end of the day, it's just straight-up economic warfare.

wiredseal7 said:Nice comparison—comparing a country sitting on the planet's largest stash of natural resources to nations that basically have to beg for their fuel and raw materials just to keep the lights on.

Iran manages to stay afloat despite the sanctions—they've got enough resources to weather the initial storm—but the rest of them were caught totally off guard. Take Syria, for example.

And a good chunk of it hits populated areas—think places like Chicago or northern New York. We aren't talking about some empty stretches of the Midwest where you can risk contaminating the water supply or messing with seismic activity without anyone noticing. We could just do it in the rural heartland—everyone’s already left for jobs in the cities anyway.

At the end of the day, all those resources don't mean squat if you can't actually get them out of the ground and sell them somewhere.

wiredseal7 said:Europe didn't break its contracts with Russia because sanctions override any prior agreements or guarantees. But then again, Russia could argue that the Russian President's decrees sit right above ExxonMobil's gas contracts and guarantees.

The EU isn't going to freeze up since the weather is getting warmer, but industry still needs that gas.
We'll see by March 31st who's actually bluffing—this whole thing is basically a high-stakes poker game.

And Ukraine is making good money off that gas, which is just another reason why keeping those pipeline capacities running makes sense.

Looks like someone is definitely bluffing.

Drew Booth60 said:The Russian ruble is sitting at 87 against the US dollar—honestly, we’re basically looking at levels we haven't seen since before the invasion started. Some of the analysts over on the finance forums are already predicting a total Venezuelan-style collapse once the New York Stock Exchange opens in Moscow 🙏

I’m really curious to see if anyone actually bites on March 31st regarding those gas payments in rubles. I mean, cutting off the gas supply doesn't benefit Europe or Russia, so it’s going to be a wild ride regardless of how this plays out 😁

Someone finally folded.🕺

restlessmason54 said:My favorite part of all this has been reading the comments from people claiming Russia is headed for some unprecedented economic apocalypse because the ruble is sliding.

People genuinely seem to believe that the Swabians are just going to toss billions of euros invested in Nord Stream 2 straight into the wind and suddenly become independent of Russian gas. Honestly, you aren't going to see that movie anytime soon—not when you consider how much those capitalists have at stake.
All these heavy-duty sanctions being thrown at Russia? It's mostly just media theater designed for the naive.

Time will tell how Russia ends up holding the entire EU by the balls, especially once they start quietly easing up on those sanctions under the radar in the near future.

This is the cherry on top.

It’s funny how quickly people forget about Putin bragging about his "master plan" and how he outsmarted the West, only for it to turn out like... "Oh, wait, please just keep buying our stuff?"

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe...ts-2022-03-29/

Looks like Poland is officially banning all Russian coal imports.

steelfox98 said:You completely missed the point that 160 other nations are acting and thinking the exact same way. But sure, let's pretend we're incredibly special and that nobody else's opinion matters. The fact that no one outside our little chosen club wants to join us? Pure coincidence, clearly. 🤣

Look, you can throw around all the lolz you want, but when we're talking real-world economics and sanctions, the only players that actually move the needle are the West, China, and to an extent, India. Everyone else? They're basically just there to fill out the map. Their population numbers don't mean squat if their purchasing power is basically nothing.

Nancy Gomez26 said:Everything you just laid out implies that, for investors, this is precisely the moment to pick up stakes in Nord Stream 2 (assuming, of course, the price is right and fits one's tolerance for the very real risk and uncertainty involved). My view is that gas from the Russian Federation remains—technologically speaking—the most cost-effective energy source for the foreseeable future. Since the only way to deliver it without losing its primary advantage is via pipeline, now is the window to invest. You buy when it's cheap and sell when it's expensive. While many see today's situation as a living hell due to the war, others may see it as a compelling investment opportunity. It simply requires capital, vision, and a certain level of nerve. Who dares, wins.

Nord Stream 2 is dead in the water. Between Europe cutting ties and the status of Nord Stream 1, Yamal, Brotherhood, and Soyuz, there is zero chance Nord Stream 2 ever becomes profitable again.
Its only purpose was to further tighten Europe's reliance on Russian gas.

steelfox98 said:The Brazilian Foreign Minister just dropped this statement on their Senate website:
Quincey:

Brazil doesn't buy into these unilateral, selective sanctions. Beyond being illegal under international law, they specifically serve the immediate interests of certain nations, like ensuring the European Union stays fueled up with oil and gas. Meanwhile, they target goods essential for survival for much of the global population. There's a massive risk here; the way these sanctions are being rolled out means the mid-term fallout will crush developing nations far harder than it hits Russia, essentially shielding the West from the worst of its own mess.

In short, he sees them as illegal and rigged—designed to minimize damage to the EU and the USA while bullying everyone else.
When you consider that only about 35 out of over 200 countries have actually implemented or backed these sanctions, it’s pretty obvious how the rest of the world feels. We're talking about 80% of the planet here.

https://www12.senado.leg.br/noticias...sabastecimento

It's not Bolsonaro's lapdog barking because of your precious Putin; they're barking to protect themselves and their own regime. Tough times ahead for those wannabe dictators.

https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/ban...22-for-roubles

So, looks like Russia just threw out an offer to buy back their own bonds that are due on April 4th. We're talking about a massive $2 billion chunk of debt here. The catch? They’re promising to pay back 100% of the face value, but there's a huge "if" attached—they'll only do it if investors agree to take the payout in rubles and get everything wrapped up by April 3rd.