Posts by hollowdriver13

https://www.rferl.org/a/saudis-appro.../30065975.html

Looks like the US Army is heading into Saudi Arabia. Apparently, the King gave the green light personally, probably because things are getting a bit dicey with threats coming from Iran. Seems like the Saudis are feeling the pressure and decided they need some extra muscle nearby.

https://www.reuters.com/business/ene...sj-2022-11-21/

And wouldn't you know it? OPEC is stepping up production by 500k barrels. Talk about a classic quid pro quo.😬

I’ve seen this movie a hundred times before—whenever things start heating up, everyone starts running to Washington, D.C. to sort it out.

It looks like they're slowly realizing on the ground in Russia that just seizing factories from Western companies isn't some magic fix for their economy. You can see the cracks starting to show—Siemens locomotives and rail cars are basically sitting idle, and as for their aviation industry? Yeah, things aren't looking too bright there either.

https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/...98787575357440

Honestly, pretty much everything high-tech they’ve got was originally built by the West. 😬

Joshua Myers432 said:Sure, being self-sufficient in strategic sectors is fine, but there is a massive difference between being independent and being totally cut off from international relations and global trade. This isn't the 19th century. Russia has no future if it's completely sidelined by the West. Either they end up in the same circle as Iran and North Korea, which would be a total failure of Russian policy and a complete abandonment of common sense, or nothing changes.

Honestly, this is already happening. They've become absolute best buddies at this point.

"Russia and North Korea forge closer ties amid shared isolation"

https://www.reuters.com/world/russia...on-2022-11-04/

"Iran Says Determined to boost Ties with Russia ' AT All Levels'"

https://www.iranintl.com/en/202209160361

And then you've got the Russian proxies like Belarus and Syria playing for the same team.

wearytrucker22 said:Germany has about 23.3 billion cubic meters (bcm) in underground storage capacity,
but they burn through roughly 95 billion cubic meters of imported gas annually—though they’ve managed to cut that by 20% down to 75 billion cubic meters lately. About 50 billion comes from the Benelux region and Norway, plus another 25 billion via ExxonMobil.
So where are the Russians? They're gone. And where are our local Russophiles now? How exactly do they plan on surviving this?

NEW YORK CITY, Oct 24 (Associated Press) - Germany, the largest economy in Europe and a historical heavy lifter when it comes to importing Russian gas, is scrambling to lock down alternative supplies now that flows from Russia have cratered following the invasion of Ukraine. Here is the breakdown of what Germany is doing:

WHERE ARE THE REPLACEMENTS COMING FROM?
Germany is pulling significantly more gas from Benelux, Norway, and France.

According to data from the EIA, Germany’s imports from Norway jumped to 37.6% in September, compared to just 19.2% during the same month last year. Meanwhile, shipments from the Netherlands climbed to 29.6% of total imports, up from 13.7%.

NEW YORK CITY, Oct 24 (Associated Press) - Germany, the largest economy in Europe and a historical heavy lifter when it comes to importing Russian gas, is scrambling to lock down alternative supplies now that flows from Russia have cratered following the invasion of Ukraine. Here is the breakdown of what Germany is doing:

WHERE ARE THE REPLACEMENTS COMING FROM?
Germany is pulling significantly more gas from Benelux, Norway, and France.

According to data from the EIA, Germany’s imports from Norway jumped to 37.6% in September, compared to just 19.2% during the same month last year. Meanwhile, shipments from the Netherlands climbed to 29.6% of total imports, up from 13.7%.

Even Mother Nature isn't a fan of Vladimir Putin or the Russians, since she's keeping Europe nice and warm and dry this fall. 😬

Nathan Evans78 said:Back during the height of the pandemic, brokers were essentially dumping oil at a loss just to stay afloat, and now that the government isn't handing out those massive subsidies anymore, you're seeing diesel hit two bucks at the pump. 😁

https://www.marketwatch.com/investin...countrycode=uk

Brent crude, our main benchmark, has been on a steady slide ever since that brief spike following the news about production cuts.

And this brings us right back to that ugly side of capitalism—even if it really is still the best economic model humans have ever come up with. It's that habit of using global chaos as an "excuse" to jack up prices.

It reminds me of those small local distributors here in the States whining that they went belly up three months ago, yet somehow they're still open for business today.

Going bankrupt while staying in business... talk about Schrödinger's distributors.

Gregory Ramos3 said:Man, he totally missed the mark on his prediction—he was actually way too optimistic 🤣 :



Putin is playing some kind of crazy 66D chess 🙏

But seriously though, I really doubt regular folks are going to feel much of a difference from this spot price collapse, even if certain corporate managers are already rubbing their hands together in anticipation of those sweet bonuses ☕

Also, countries that didn't go overboard filling up their storage will end up in a much better spot, since they can basically drive down the average MWh price by picking up extra gas for peanuts during a Black Friday style sale 🙂

It brings up that question we were talking about recently—even back in the States—about how much of this was actual chaos versus just frantic day traders and corporations taking advantage of the situation to price gouge people. I mean, these companies have been bragging about record quarterly profits all year long.

In this instance, we pretty much got a front-row seat to capitalism at its absolute worst.

wearytrucker22 said:European gas prices have finally dipped below $100 per MWh
https://finbold.com/europes-natural-...nce-june-2022/
I wonder what Russia is going to do now with their stinking gas supplies.

It’s kind of funny when you look back at some of the folks on this forum at the start of the summer, claiming the European Union was headed for an economic apocalypse by autumn. Well, here we are, deep into fall, and honestly? Nothing much has actually changed... despite all those massive walls of text people wrote about how the West was doomed to freeze in the dark and face total collapse. It turns out things aren't quite as dramatic as the doom-posters made them out to be.

Jeremy Turner9 said:I don't have the time to hunt down specific links right now...

Russia is preparing to ramp up production, and if they have to revert to the industrial scales seen back in the 1980s to make it happen, they will...

They have amassed such massive foreign exchange reserves that they are actually weighing down the ruble and stifling their own economy. It's reached a point where one could theoretically walk away with over $10,000 in cash. They attempted to offload some of this capital onto the Chinese, but the Chinese aren't interested because of the complexities surrounding their own currency; from what I understand, countries like Turkey are much more desperate for that kind of liquidity...

Within the European Union, the actual impact of sanctions on the Russian economy has become a secondary concern for us. We aren't trading with them, we aren't lending them money, we have no desire to accept their investments, and we certainly have no interest in investing in Russia ourselves. The fundamental paradigm has shifted: we simply no longer hold any economic or financial stake in Russia or its affairs.

🤔

Wait, what??

The reason you can't buy more than $10k isn't because of foreign currency "suffocating" the ruble. It's for an entirely different reason.🤦

steelfox98 said:It claims nicely that Russians have started producing them—or rather, estimates suggest they’ll cover just under 50% of demand. It wouldn't be hard to conclude they'll cover everything by next year.
Eight years ago, people were screaming about a Russian collapse due to the sanctions back then. Instead, they went from net importers to the world's biggest agricultural exporters, stabilized their financial sector, and beefed up industry. Sure, they hit bumps in the road during those first few months, but long-term? This isn't an issue. As I said back in 2014, this topic comes up constantly, yet we see that a collapse is nowhere in sight.

Having just been in Abu Dhabi (not my first time), I can tell you this thesis is nonsense. For a capable person, the quality of life here is better than in any European country. That goes for individual economic status; you only need to look at whether Europeans are heading to the UAE or vice versa to see the truth.
More importantly, this desert nation covers all its vital needs, from energy requirements to full food production. I can't think of a single European country that manages that. Except maybe Russia.

I don't value the "freedom" to choose between the Republican Party and the Democratic Party—leftists versus rightists—all that much.
Here, the state functions like a CEO running a private firm, unlike your typical European bureaucrats who seem intent on shooting themselves in the foot. There's a very simple reason why the country works better and why China gets closer to the West every year. You just have to watch how the gap constantly shrinks.

America is one of the safest countries in the world, but compared to this monarchy, it looks like the Wild West.

It doesn't say they've actually started producing; it says if Russian "manufacturers" can manage to assemble what they already have sitting in warehouses from Western components, then MAYBE they might be able to deliver 95k bearings. Meanwhile, the Russian railways are still facing a deficit of 100k bearings, and then you've got the specialized lubricants and seals that aren't even produced in Russia or the CIS region at all.

If you honestly believe that bearing production is something the Russians can just organize from scratch to normal production levels in a single year, then you should also believe me when I say I have a beach house in Florida right on the coast that I'll sell you for cheap. ☕

I’d highly recommend you try visiting an SKF production facility sometime just to see what modern bearing manufacturing actually looks like (for instance, SKF used to import ball components from Sweden to their factory in Russia because they couldn't make them there).
A little side note regarding China: their CNC machines still aren't quite good enough to handle precise ball grinding on ball valves during maintenance, which is why they still have to order machinery from the Netherlands and Germany.

Abu Dhabi is beautiful if you stay within that narrow "razzle-dazzle" business center bubble built specifically for the Westerner. I’d suggest taking a trip about 50 miles37 miles outside that circle—maybe even stay overnight somewhere out there—and then come back and tell me all about how it's "better and safer than the EU."

https://www.railway.supply/en/russia...e-of-collapse/

Sanctions are starting to really bite into Russia's capacity.

Since they basically can't manufacture their own bearings and are totally reliant on imports from the West, these sanctions are slowly grinding their rail networks to a halt because they just can't get their hands on spare parts.

Carl Lee27 said:Gas prices across most of Europe are absolutely cratering right now, and the Dutch TTF has already dipped below €125 per MWh. Honestly, at this rate, I wouldn't be surprised if we see it sliding under the €100 mark as early as this week.

Well, Ural crude isn't exactly blooming either. Even after those production cut announcements gave it a little nudge upward, it’s sliding back down again. If you look at the long-term trend, it's heading in the same direction, and right now it's actually trading about 3% lower than where it was at the start of 2022.

https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/urals-oil

Nathan Evans78 said:

The Government just released an update regarding the new price cap regulation. For the next seven days, retail prices are being strictly limited to today's levels:

- Gasoline will be capped at $3.50 per liter, diesel at $4.00, and red diesel at $2.75. As for propane, it'll be $4.75 per kilogram for canisters and $3.25 per kg for tank refills.

If the Government hadn't stepped in with these measures, we'd likely be looking at:

- $3.35 per liter for gasoline

- $3.95 per liter for diesel

- $2.75 per liter for red diesel

- $4.30 per kg for propane canisters

- $3.10 per kg for propane tanks

https://www.nytimes.com/news/us/gas-prices-update-15262941

You guys were all calling Viktor Orbán a total powerhouse when he was pulling moves like this back in Canada, acting like every little thing he did was just "Russian influence."
So what’s the deal now? Why is it suddenly such a massive issue when the exact same thing happens here in America?

Anthony Hill5 said:OPEC and Russia have officially reached an agreement to slash oil production by 2 million barrels per day.

OPEC and Russia agree to cut oil production by 2 million barrels a day.

View on twitter

There's an Urucen proposal headed to Congress to pull the US military umbrella away from Saudi Arabia and the UAE.

Looks like Iran is already revving their engines. ☕

Carl Lee27 said:Beijing keeps pulling away from Russia
https://twitter.com/ShanghaiMacro/st...VfW-NoUCQ&s=19

Whoa, and they're putting an article like this out in The Wall Street Journal—basically a state mouthpiece.

They’re just throwing out feelers to see how the West reacts.

bluemason3 said:Just my luck...

If anyone was still questioning whether Russia was behind the sabotage... 😁

Honestly, it’s a rule of thumb that works every single time:"Don't believe anything until the Kremlin denies it"™

bluemason3 said:How exactly would satellites track that? As far as I know, satellites aren't really built to detect things deep underwater—unless there’s some classified tech out there we haven't heard about yet. Usually, they just monitor surface activity, ports, and stuff like that, then make educated guesses from there.

In the ocean, you're still most likely looking at some kind of acoustic detection.🤔

Plus, most detection methods seem to rely on a submarine actually moving. If a nuclear sub positions itself strategically and just sits silent at depth, what exactly is going to pick it up?🤔

Beyond just radar and sonar, they also use sensors like this:

a Magnetic Anomaly Detector (MAD). Basically, a big chunk of ferromagnetic material, like a submarine, causes a noticeable disturbance in the Earth’s magnetic field. MAD is designed to catch that specific hiccup, making it super effective at hunting down submerged subs.

These are most commonly mounted on anti-submarine helicopters, planes, and nowadays, even drones.

https://navalpost.com/p-8-poseidon-t...marine-hunter/

The Boeing P-8 Poseidon is honestly a pretty sweet piece of kit. Aside from a massive array of sensors meant for hunting subs and surface vessels, it comes fully loaded with weapons—meaning it can carry torpedoes, Harpoon missiles, depth charges, and mines.

https://twitter.com/WilliamYang120/s...30324840337413

Russia just vetoed that UN resolution condemning their annexation of the Ukrainian territories. Honestly? It’s totally predictable and follows the script perfectly.

China held back, and India did too. Maybe this finally serves as a wake-up call for the West so they realize India isn't exactly riding with us—they were more aligned with the USSR back during the Hadan War.

At least the masks are finally coming off. They've shown that all that talk about respecting "Ukraine's territorial integrity" is nothing but hot air. Now, when people claim the West is being dishonest, they can point to this and say these supposed beacons of "truth" aren't so bright after all. 🤦

Now I can finally shut down those arguments about how Taiwan doesn't have the right to self-determination or all that "one China" nonsense.

Grace Jones86 said:It's pointless to argue over this point... we actually agree on the core issue here. 😵

We are all standing with Ukraine... not because of Ukraine itself, but because of us. Because of the West. Ukraine isn't exactly some shining model of anything desirable. 😉
Enough of that.

edit: by the way... I use the word "regime" because these are all regimes, regardless of whether they call themselves democracies. I don't actually believe in democracy, nor does any truly intellectual person. Who am I even talking to here?! 😕

Anyway... despite the stupid insinuations about my views, I am extremely anti-Russian. It's obvious in every single one of my posts. Anyone reading what I write about Russia can see that.

But no... I use the word regime, so clearly I'm just some Democratic Party paid hack... a Russian online troll. 🤣 🤣
What kind of hysteria is this?

It’s just like during COVID. No matter how neutral or analytical your take was, you were immediately branded a cold-blooded killer or a hater.🤣

So, I don't quite get why you think the West would just let UA go under?

1 - Western nations are way too pro-UA for some politician, who relies on those voters, to go against what the majority wants. Even Meloni in Italy showed this when she first jumped on Twitter to support Ukraine, and Italy continues to stand by them—even if Italians are generally a bit more hesitant, their support usually hovers around 60%.

https://mobile.twitter.com/GiorgiaMe...62655067660295

2 - The West is far too invested in this conflict now. If Ukraine loses, it would effectively be seen as a defeat for the collective West. Losing that kind of geopolitical influence would be massive.

3 - As much as the West loves poking around in countries in Africa or the Middle East—often unnecessarily, inappropriately, or just poorly executed—since the order established after WWII, nobody has openly annexed territory from another country like this. Not even when the USA and the USSR were fighting proxy wars in Vietnam and Afghanistan.

It’s just as silly as thinking Westerners are snowflakes. That’s exactly what Putin counted on, and he miscalculated badly. He assumed the average Westerner couldn't handle any discomfort, unlike the Russians, who are all supposedly "tough guys."
There's actually a great little saying regarding authoritarian regimes and democracies.

"The authoritarian regime looks strong until the crisis hits, democracy looks weak until the crisis hits."

https://rtyva.ru/press_center/news/other/49523/

So, I was reading this and man... families of the guys mobilized over in Tuva are basically getting handed a sack of potatoes, some cabbage, a bag of flour, and a single sheep as "compensation" for their lost income while the men are out fighting. 🤦
Honestly, they probably should be getting some coal delivered too, just so they don't freeze their tails off this winter.

loneskipper3 said:About 38% of Chinese exports are headed toward the West and Japan, while roughly 30% of what China imports comes from the West and Japan—keep in mind that Japan coordinates its sanctions against Russia alongside the West. Now, when you look at the figures for Russia, we’re talking about a mere 2% or 3%. Even though Russian imports might actually hold more strategic weight than that tiny 3% figure would suggest to a casual observer, the reality is that the Chinese economy is far more dependent on the West. It isn't as if the West isn't reliant on China—certainly not German industry, which leans heavily on exports and, quite frankly, much of its business comes from the Chinese market. But on a global scale? China is merely a junior partner here—though, granted, that could change in 25 to 40 years. The West accounts for half of the global economy, whereas China sits at around 16-17%.

The impact of Corona and those irrational zero-COVID policies—where entire cities of millions were slapped with draconian lockdowns—has already dealt some massive blows to the Chinese economy (not to mention fueling widespread discontent). If the West were to leverage its full economic might, I’d argue that China simply wouldn't be able to commit to Russia. The CCP is far too terrified of an economic collapse or seeing angry masses flooding the streets; after all, there are still hundreds of millions of people living on the absolute edge of survival there—and even those who are doing better aren't exactly eager to give up a lifestyle that is, for all intents and purposes, modeled after the West.

Another massive construction firm just went into default.

https://www.reuters.com/markets/euro...es-2022-09-28/

This entire Ponzi scheme known as the Chinese construction sector is basically a row of falling dominoes. One giant company after another is defaulting ever since Evergrande started this whole avalanche.