bluemason3 said:The reason nobody attacks them directly is because they have nukes. But let’s be clear: nuclear weapons are a tool for deterrence through mutually assured destruction, not a way to project power when you're fighting a war outside your own borders.
If someone starts threatening the first aggressive use of a nuke, they’re opening a Pandora's box. The other side isn't just going to back down easily.
There are a lot of variables at play here.
When we talk about spheres of influence, we're talking about strength—something that looks pretty questionable regarding Russia, especially on the economic front. Honestly, the US having significant influence in our backyard near Italy is probably a good thing for us. 😁
All this talk about NATO promises is just naive propaganda. It's completely irrelevant whether some American politician from three generations ago made a vague promise to someone, somewhere. It doesn't matter.
Whether you call it hypocrisy or not, the difference between what's happening in the Middle East and what's happening here is that this is in our own neighborhood. Europe sees a direct threat to its stability, and there's a long history of aggressive Russian politics involved. Even the USA isn't the deciding factor here. What really changed compared to previous Russian military moves is how unexpectedly unified Europe became. They're facing a serious threat on their own soil, and I doubt Putin helped by making those imperialist, Soviet-nostalgic comments. The USA isn't doing anything fundamentally different than before; it was Europe that stepped up, which in turn allowed the USA to push for stronger sanctions.
The USA hasn't fought wars on its own borders in a long time. Certainly not in Canada, and definitely not in Mexico in modern times, even if there have been some low-key activities there.
The US prefers using the carrot, while Russia prefers the stick. You can't really be surprised that nobody wants to be in that dictator's "sphere of influence."
As for neutrality and NATO, that's just propaganda fodder, not Russia's only motivation.
The gas fields around Crimea, which could allow Ukraine to break the Russian monopoly on the European market, are a much bigger issue than NATO—especially since Russia destabilized the region in 2014, making NATO entry impossible anyway.
That whole mantra about the Finnish model exists because it sounds better for propaganda to say "we're afraid of NATO" rather than admitting "we want to strip someone of their resources and, ideally, their independence, sovereignty, and even their identity." A neutral Ukraine just isn't possible; Russia won't let them dictate a policy that could wreck its own economic and strategic interests. Ukraine will either be occupied, partially occupied, a pseudo-independent satellite, or militarily strong enough to compete with Russia—which is easiest to achieve through NATO.
The problem for Ukraine is that it might be too late now to get Crimea back, but they should have raced to join NATO, just like the smart folks in the Baltic states did as soon as they gained independence.
There's simply no other way to protect their interests.
And as for the current situation? I have no clue. I'm stuck in the middle.
What are they going to get back? Something that wasn't even theirs to begin with—Khrushchev gave them Crimea by decree back in '54 just to make administration easier. And they were gifted New Russia by Lenin exactly 100 years ago. Then Maidan happened just 8 years ago. You see, the Kremlin loves symbolism.
Ukrainians have known since 2014 that Crimea is gone for good—they should probably thank Victoria Nuland for that.
Those gas fields near Crimea? I doubt they could ever replace Russian reserves. Gas is just one small link in the whole UK/US vs. Russia conflict. In this scenario, the EU is basically like Paraguay, Botswana, or Laos. ☕
Arming Ukraine? I mean, all those anti-aircraft systems might not even matter if Russia manages to trap them in pockets before they even arrive. I guess you have to wonder how they'll actually get the gear delivered. And honestly, I don't really get why these European countries were so quiet when there was still a chance to prevent this whole mess. It’s like they were just sleeping through everything and suddenly woke up once the Russian invasion actually started.
Then again, people are probably going to blame Moscow for what comes next, because this isn't going to go on forever.