Posts by silverotter72

wearytrucker22 said:Just to throw some numbers out there: Ural crude is sitting at $94.50 today, while Brent and WTI are both hitting $123

https://topoilnews.com/

https://www.neste.com/investors/mark...ude-oil-prices

Shell is grabbing a 24% discount on the Ural oil mix, and the Germans are doing pretty much the same thing. Makes you wonder who’s actually playing it smart here and who’s just losing their minds.

I told you all... people are going to go hunting for discounted oil.

Frank Walker7 said:I'm not quite following your train of thought, though I think I caught your point at the end where you're really asking about the specific price tag involved.

What exactly is so hard to grasp here?
To actually extract resources, they need technology—technology they’d have to purchase because they simply don't possess it, and I highly doubt anyone is just going to hand it over as a gift.
Even if they have existing wells, keeping them operational requires maintenance, which again, demands foreign tech.
If they want to mine ore at prices that actually make economic sense, they're back to square one: needing technology they don't own.
Then there's agriculture. To plant anything meaningful, you need high-yield seeds (which they buy from Americans) and the machinery, like tractors, to scale production. They pull all of that from Germany or the USA. They don't have their own. The only alternative is using low-quality seeds and outdated methods.
And even when something finally grows, albeit in much smaller quantities, they still have to harvest it. Again, more machinery, more tech, and so on.

All those oil reserves, gas, minerals, and miles of empty land don't mean a thing if they can't actually utilize them. It’s that old saying: a bird in the hand is worth two in the bush. In this case, it feels like they killed the bird in their hand with a cruise missile just to try and catch the ones in the bush, only to watch the whole thing fly away.

And yes, the European Union will eventually have to pay whatever the market demands, likely at a premium. But, the EU also has its own resources that it'll now be forced to develop and utilize—something it really should have been doing a long time ago instead of relying solely on cheap handouts from neighbors. We're seeing now that "cheap" often turns out to be significantly more expensive than it looks at first glance.
It’s like what wealthy people say: "I'm not rich enough to buy cheap things." Well, I suppose the European Union has just learned that lesson the hard way.

Frank Walker7 said:Hmm... I wonder if anyone here is just bluffing?

When you look at how a real economy actually functions—specifically through manufacturing—it makes me wonder if it can truly thrive without access to Russian resources and markets.

My gut feeling is that an exporter of raw materials usually finds sanctions much easier to stomach than a manufacturer of finished goods, especially when massive players like China and India are standing by ready to buy.

Let's just set the politics aside for a moment.

Look, you can't pull oil out of the ground without cash, and you certainly can't turn raw material into a product without cash. You can't even handle basic farming, planting or harvesting, without capital.
But then again, if you actually have the money, you can always just go somewhere else and buy the raw materials there.

Daniel Barnes53 said:Putin DECIDES TO BAN THE EXPORT OF PRODUCTS AND RAW MATERIALS OUTSIDE THE RUSSIAN FEDERATION UNTIL DECEMBER 31

Unbelievable. So much for those sanctions, I guess. 🤣

George Robinson43 said:Far right and far left alike admired Putin. Now we’ve all turned against strongmen

There are still plenty of clowns on Putin's payroll who are suddenly turning their backs:

Melania Trump - she just ordered the destruction of 1.2 million flyers featuring handshakes with Putin that she had planned to distribute during her election campaign 🙏 🙏

hahahahaha

What a joke! 🤣

George Robinson43 said:Nigel Farage 2014:
Nigel Farage: I admire Vladimir Putin

Nigel Farage 2022:
Farage: ‘I was wrong’ about Putin

Well, at least the man had the decency to admit he was being foolish!

I can't say I have much respect for the guy. If anything, I think he's been a step backward for the United Kingdom. Still, I suppose if there is one thing I can respect, it's when someone actually owns up to a mistake. It doesn't happen often, though. You can see a tiny glimmer of humanity beneath all that populism. Then again, I wouldn't go so far as to give him credit for that; he probably just realized his voters wanted to hear him say it.
I still despise him, but in this one specific instance, I guess I'll tip my hat.

Daniel Barnes53 said:*U.S. TO BAN RUSSIAN OIL WITHOUT INVOLVING EUROPEAN UNION ALLIES
*BIDEN PREPARED TO BAN U.S. IMPORTS OF RUSSIAN OIL AS EARLY AS TODAY

Like I mentioned before, I don't think this is going to be some massive loss for the US. We can probably swap things out without hitting too many snags. As for the European Union, they'll likely just stick to their usual routine, which is pretty much what you'd expect for now, I guess.

Now Russia is just going to end up with a surplus. Maybe the EU should try asking for a discount. 😁
Google. Look, my friends, we're dealing with capitalism over here—it's all just supply and demand, I guess.

Jeremy Turner9 said:To those who claim we bought Russian energy and raw materials out of some misplaced affection for Moscow: let’s be clear—it was purely about the bottom line...

Access to cheaper fuel and raw materials, along with the ability to trade and invest within Russia, provided the bedrock for our competitiveness, fueled the growth of small and medium-sized businesses, bolstered consumer purchasing power, and ultimately sustained a higher standard of living for everyone...

While we certainly lean toward the culture and values of the USA and the UK, the specific economic models they are pushing onto us come with a much steeper price tag—a cost we simply cannot afford, and perhaps, have no desire to shoulder...

Returning to an economic landscape reminiscent of the 1980s? Absolutely not. That path leads straight to aggressive militarization and massive spending on defense and weaponry. Furthermore, the "green agenda" seems to be a lost cause if you look at the reality; we're looking at increased air pollution and the destruction of our forests... No thank you; we need to move toward progress, not retreat into the past...

In the short term, sure. But in the long run, I suspect the EU will eventually turn inward toward its own resources. They won't be relying on either the Americans or the Russians.

Daniel Barnes53 said:US Says Its Oil Could Replace Imports of Russian Crude; All it would take is approval of the Keystone XL Pipeline

Maybe Canada could step up and cover the Russian oil imports the US currently relies on. I guess we're really only talking about about 3% of the total volume here.

Honestly, the USA could just replace that same supply themselves. Americans have plenty of oil at home; they could certainly ramp up production if they wanted to. I suppose it really just comes down to whatever ends up being more cost-effective at the pump.

analogbear5 said:Even military aggression doesn't force a change in leadership or policy—something I hope Vladimir Putin is starting to realize.

Cuba, Venezuela, and Iran are poor enough that sanctions don't hit them that hard. Russia isn't—or wasn't—a poor country, so these sanctions are going to hurt.

Imagine if your entire "defense strategy" was just: "It doesn't matter, we're too broke to lose anything."
That seems to be all that's left for the Putinofils. It’s honestly depressing. You supposedly love a country, yet you're perfectly fine watching it slide from a second-rate power down to a third-rate, completely irrelevant one...

A nation could potentially be blackmailed to the point where they'd trade away their nuclear program just for basic necessities and some change. It's shameful.

They've really hit rock bottom here... truly low...

steelraven74 said:Western politicians just haven't learned—and really should have by now—that sanctions don't actually trigger regime changes or shifts in policy. They certainly aren't going to end this war. Just look at the history with Cuba, Venezuela, or Iran.

I suppose the primary goal isn't actually regime change. I think the main objective is simply to impoverish them so they can't afford to fund the war anymore. If a change in leadership happens as a byproduct, then fine, great. That's a bonus.

William Cooper11 said:Where can I find an up-to-date look at Russia's foreign exchange reserves?

Officially and directly? There isn't a single reliable source out there.
Indirectly? You might find something here: https://www.tradingview.com/chart/Zxt4PAOj/
Every little "dip" you see is just an attempt by Russia to stabilize the Ruble and find some calm waters. If you want the truth, just watch what happens immediately after one of those drops. It’s just endless volatility and massive crashes.

Either they still have some reserves tucked away but know they won't save the Ruble—so they're just hoarding it for themselves—or they've already burned through everything they could and are now just scrambling to pick up whatever scraps fall their way.

Amanda Allen4 said:Oh, it was absolutely due to business operations. I’m sure there are plenty of folks over in the West who poured money into Russian ventures and are now sweating over the possibility of losing everything.

Exactly. Though, I suppose if the reason for the loss is simply Putin deciding, "You invested in USD? Fine, we're switching back to RUB and you can deal with the fallout," then we're looking at a different beast entirely. But if it's just a case of a poorly managed company failing on its own merits, well, that's no different from me losing my shirt on some struggling startup in Ohio.

steelfox98 said:Does food just sprout from thin air, or does it actually need fertilizer first? Where does that come from? Where does the gas used to make the fertilizer come from?

By the way, try dialing back the aggression in your posts.

Natural gas will flow exactly as it did before the war started. I suspect Russia simply can't afford to cut back its supplies to Europe right now.

Amanda Allen4 said:Exactly! And how exactly is Russia supposed to profit from this war? There is just no justice left in this world.

I don't see how Russia can possibly come out ahead here. It feels more like they've somehow teleported themselves fifty years back in time. Maybe, if they're lucky, they can find a way to monetize being a regressive state with a broken economy.

Amanda Allen4 said:Am I really the only one here who lost money invested in a company that went bankrupt?

After two years of dragging things through the courts, I managed to claw back 30% of my capital—and honestly, I was happy about it because I was part of a privileged group of investors. Some people walked away with absolutely nothing.

Did they actually go bankrupt due to poor business decisions, or did the Governor just decide the company was worth zero so they wouldn't have to pay anyone back?
You see what I mean? It isn't just about the loss itself, but rather the underlying reason why it happened.

Amanda Allen4 said:There is a fundamental issue here: when you put your capital—your hard-earned money—into a business, there is potential profit, yes, but there is also the very real risk of loss.

There is a rule in investing that is far more important than "buy low, sell high"—and that is if a debt cannot be collected, you lose your money. That happens all the time, doesn't it?

Actually, I don't think that applies here. Usually, we weigh the investment against risk and reward under standard conditions. But when someone just seizes assets by decree, completely disregarding international norms, well, then you have to expect pushback. You'd expect pressure to ensure things continue according to established international standards rather than some unilateral rulebook cooked up on the fly.

It would be just as easy for Greece to pass a law stating they don't owe anyone a dime. Easy peasy. I’m not sure why they haven't thought of that yet. 😁 The chance of such a decree gaining any international recognition is essentially zero.

steelfox98 said:Oil hitting $130
Natural gas at $3,600
Wheat is up 40%. With Russia and Ukraine being the heavyweights in global exports—and Russia leading the charge on fertilizer and everything else...

The USA can feed itself and still has plenty of energy in reserve.
Russia? They can also cover their own food and fuel needs internally.
The EU? They’re just stuck watching everyone else eat and drive.

It’s fascinating, really. These people who get a kick out of seeing others struggle. If this keeps up, they'll be howling in a few months when reality finally hits them right in the face.

The EU is capable of feeding itself and still exporting the surplus. For years now, the EU has used that extra food production as leverage against countries outside its borders.
You clearly don't have the slightest clue what you're talking about.

Benjamin Taylor6 said:Basically, if you try to offload your holdings in Russia, you'll just end up holding worthless scraps of paper. Honestly, the only logical move is to sit tight and wait for the dust to settle—which could take years, mind you. And even then, the Russians could just issue a decree claiming I invested rubles instead of dollars, and by the time inflation eats through them, those rubles won't be worth the ink used to print them.

The issue isn't about my opinion or how the rest of the world views it; the issue is that the Russians simply won't acknowledge anything else. Unless someone manages to force their hand—which, let's face it, seems impossible right now—you're stuck.

It seems you might not quite grasp the fundamental mechanics of economics—you know, the whole supply and demand thing.
If a Russian citizen wants to buy a single hamburger from me, I am the one who dictates the price and the currency used, not him. He can't just issue a decree to change that. Either he agrees to my terms, or he doesn't get his hamburger.
He could try telling me, "But I have a law that says blah blah blah." Honestly, man, that law is meaningless here. Either you send me dollars, euros, or US dollars, or I’m not shipping that hamburger to you. You could send me rubles, or you could send me hugs and kisses for all I care; it doesn't change the deal.

Ultimately, the Russians will either play by the rules set by the seller (the global market), or they simply won't get the goods they need to import into their country.

By that same logic, if you invested $100k in Russia, and now they're claiming, "Okay, that's no longer $100k, it's X amount of rubles," well, once things eventually stabilize, you'll be the one using international law to point out: "Whatever you send me doesn't count as repaying my stake. The rest of the world will only consider this debt settled when you send actual USD, regardless of whatever laws you've cooked up in your own little corner of the world."

So, don't worry too much. The Russians can pretend to make decisions that affect the entire globe within their own borders, but outside those borders, those decisions are about as serious as a bad joke or a domestic argument over home decor. It's like if I decide the kitchen tiles should be beige, but my wife insists they'll be white. I can convince myself I've won the argument, but the reality remains that the tiles will be white, no matter what I say.

Just imagine you lend me $1.75, and I declare: "By my own executive decision, I don't owe you $1.75 anymore; I owe you five pebbles from the beach instead." Hahaha, that's just not how the world works.

Benjamin Taylor6 said:So, here we go—Putin is prepping his own set of sanctions against the West:
The Russian government announced they’ve compiled a list of "unfriendly" nations where Russian citizens and companies are now permitted to settle their debts using Rubles—a currency that has already lost 45 percent of its value since January.

That list includes the USA, Canada, Australia, various European Union member states (including the US equivalent of a mid-sized European nation), the United Kingdom, Switzerland, Monaco, South Korea, and Japan.

What kind of fallout should those countries actually expect?
This whole thing was greenlit following a presidential decree on March 5th, which essentially gives the Russian government, its corporations, and its private citizens a loophole to temporarily pay off foreign currency debts to international creditors from these "unfriendly" nations using Rubles instead.

Basically, if a debtor asks a Russian bank to open a special Ruble account on behalf of a foreign creditor, they can send over the Ruble equivalent based on the daily exchange rate set by the Central Bank of Russia. This is one of the first real retaliatory strikes from Russia regarding the sanctions imposed on them due to the invasion of Ukraine.

Does this mean if some American firm had invested $10 million in Russia, they’re just going to get paid back in Rubles? And more importantly—at what exchange rate? Because that sounds like a massive headache.
I’m also wondering what’s going to happen with all those Russian Eurobonds that are hitting maturity year after year. It feels like a ticking time bomb.

You know what this actually means? Absolutely nothing. Nobody in the global financial community is going to recognize this "repayment." It feels like pure PR intended for the naive folks back inside Russia. It's like if I walked into a Chase Bank and tried to pay off my credit card bill with seashells I gathered at the beach. That’s essentially the situation here.