Posts by silverotter72

George Robinson43 said:Given this latest blow—with Mastercard and Visa pulling out of Russia—we’re looking at a massive run on the banks as everyone rushes to grab their cash.
What’s the solution there? Prohibit withdrawals? How are people supposed to survive?
If everyone pulls their funds at once, the entire banking system could collapse in just a matter of days.

It is truly difficult to wrap my head around the scale of this, let alone predict how long the fallout will last.
I honestly wonder if any economy can sustain this kind of pressure over the long haul. They might have to pivot to a barter system within Russia just to keep things moving for a while.

My understanding is that they've only blocked cross-border transactions, not the domestic ones happening within Russia itself.

Nancy Bishop2 said:I'm looking at the GDP per country:

Germany 4,230,172 (million USD)
United Kingdom 3,108,416
France 2,940,428
Italy 2,120,232
Russia 1,647,568

And here are the percentages being set aside for defense spending
Germany 1.4%
United Kingdom 2.2%
France 2.1%
Italy 1.6%
Russia 4.3%

Based on these numbers, Germany's total expenditure is barely lower than what Russia pours into its military. Even though those four major European powers completely dwarf Russia in scale, they still act like total pushovers.

I suppose it’s because history has taught them—Germany especially—that outright war and destruction don't actually pay off in the long run. You could say experience has been a stern teacher.
Russia has yet to learn that lesson. It seems they are currently receiving a very pointed education.
Being prudent isn't quite the same thing as being a pushover. Right now, the EU is wielding a weapon far more potent and devastating than any thermonuclear bomb: its own industry and economic might.

Morgan Flores2 said:Russia's GDP is actually lower than Italy's. They’re dumping about 4% of their GDP into the military, which is way higher than everyone else. I guess if you tank their GDP, you end up weakening their military too. But, uh, that’s not happening tomorrow, or even next month, or maybe even in six months.

So, why did the Russians break up the USSR and pull down the Iron Curtain? Was it because they suddenly realized it wasn't fair to bully other nations? Yeah, right. No, it’s just because they couldn't afford it anymore. We need to get Russia back to that point. We have to weaken them since they're a threat, and the European Union really needs to step up and find a way to counter Russia.

The USA isn't going to go to war for Europe. You can see that clearly now. Trump hit the nail on the head—like, they aren't seriously going to jump into a war over Mexico, right? Now Blinken is out here saying, "Oh, if NATO gets attacked, we'll defend them." It feels like empty rhetoric to me, because he knows deep down it won't happen.

That's why NATO will probably just sit there watching while the bloodshed destroys a country they promised to bring into the fold. Even if sanctions actually work—which, who knows, maybe they will—it could take years. Ukraine, I guess you better be ready for that. You're on your own.

We are shipping weapons. That is a far cry from "sitting idly by." Maybe it isn't enough, perhaps, but the situation is getting more serious by the day.
Besides, I think the impact of the sanctions is already becoming visible. We shouldn't have to wait months or even years to see it.



If these sanctions drag on for "years," Russia will essentially be stuck in the Stone Age. Within a few years, the EU will have found alternatives to Russian oil and gas, and once that happens, that trickle of cash they're practically living on will dry up completely.

Whether they conquer Ukraine or not, all of this is going to play out much faster than most people anticipate. Personally, I’ll be watching the markets quite closely when they open this Monday. I suspect the Central Bank of Russia might try to force some kind of recovery to lower levels. How deep they can actually push the price will serve as a real indicator of their current strength or weakness. We don't need to wait months or years; we should start seeing the first signs this coming Monday.

It’s really more of a win-win-win scenario, I suppose.
Either we see a steady reduction in Russian equipment, or maybe Poland gets an upgrade with some newer aircraft—though I highly doubt they'll be getting anything straight off the assembly line—or, at the very least, we end up helping Ukrainians with hardware they actually know how to operate and feel comfortable using.

slyfox43 said:What Russian products, for heaven's sake? 🤣 In America? Caviar, perhaps...

You really read some wild stuff on this forum...

Alright, let me lay it out for you.
Let's walk through it. The US imports Russian oil... though they don't really have their own Russian gas... well, they have some of that too. Ehm... oh right, Russian tech... no, that comes from some other communist country. Okay, I just remembered the Russian vodka... ah, actually, they don't even need that anymore...

But seriously now:
https://ustr.gov/countries-regions/e...eurasia/russia
🤣

Dana Robinson4 said:They certainly aren't thriving, but they are surviving...

Venezuela 3-4

Iran, Libya 30-40

Cuba—sixty years under sanctions

Yet somehow, they still manage to live better than many people facing no sanctions at all, don't they?

Look, it’s not that they’re doing great, or even just okay. They aren't mediocre; they are doing damn well below average. I suppose if Putin's ultimate goal is to turn Russia into a third-rate nation, then be my guest. At this rate, we might as well just write them off for the next fifty years.

boldotter2 said:In Venezuela, a gallon of gas is about $0.02. In Libya, it's $0.03. In Iran, $0.05. Then you look at Syria and it hits $0.28.....

I guess we can pretty much see where this conversation is headed—comparing fuel costs to the standard of living.

Hold on just a second! Are you actually suggesting those countries aren't thriving? Honestly, if you asked me, I’d pack my bags and leave this miserable European Union for any one of them in a heartbeat. Right this instant. I could spend my days driving in circles on dirt-cheap gasoline until I eventually starve to death. Sounds like a dream, doesn't it?

Dana Robinson4 said:How gas prices in Russia are shifting following the sanctions

Could it be that we're seeing half the price in America, while Europe is only seeing a quarter of the impact?

They have plenty of oil and gas; that was never in doubt, nor has it ever been. It’s just that you can’t exactly eat or drink oil and gas, and you certainly can't turn them into the basic things you need to survive your daily life. You can drive around, I suppose, and that's about it. Thank God Russia is such a massive place, so they at least have enough space to drive around in.

It seems like those sanctions finally managed to sting even the man at the top.

He brought up the West's sanctions, claiming they’re just as heavy as a formal declaration of war.

I suppose it’ll be incredibly interesting to see how things play out this Monday once the forex markets actually open.

steelraven74 said:It’s the same old story here: a bunch of self-proclaimed experts piling on about sanctions, claiming they’ll drag Russia back to the Stone Age until they just fold and Putin gets booted from office.
But what happens to Ukraine in the meantime? Most of their power plants and industrial hubs are sitting right in the middle of the combat zone in the east. What are they supposed to live on then? Milk and honey?

Regardless of how things shake out for Ukraine, I imagine any outcome would be preferable to being crushed by Russia.

Christian Torres3 said:Mazepin was a total hazard on the track anyway. Nobody in F1 is going to miss him.

Yeah, I suppose so. Other drivers had been voicing their frustrations about him for quite some time now.

It’s perfectly plausible for a plane or a tank to be labeled as "not serviceable." These are complex machines that demand massive amounts of resources just to operate, let alone the constant maintenance required even when they're sitting idle. When you're dealing with aging hardware—and I think we can all agree that Germany has plenty of that—you eventually reach a point where you don't even want to bother pouring money into them. It seems like Germany has been looking for ways to swap out the old stuff for newer models for quite some time now.
Rifles, grenades, and other small-arms nonsense can last a long time and require very little upkeep. That's precisely why it strikes me as odd that any part of that inventory would be left out in the humidity... at the end of the day, that's just dangerous. There is a significant difference between letting a tank or a jet rust away and letting a pile of explosives degrade. You simply can't compare the two.

I'd love to see some actual proof for that. It seems unlikely that nobody would have snapped a photo of that mess, and honestly, it’s even harder to believe that the Germans would store weaponry like that. They aren't like America.

Carl Sanders5 said:You guys are being way too optimistic about these sanctions, honestly. I’m not seeing it. Russians are used to this stuff; it's practically part of their routine. How long did the Cold War even last? Over 30 years, right? And they still functioned just fine.

There are over 30 million people living out in Siberia. Every single year, they deal with summer water shortages and three-month stretches of winter gas rationing when it hits -40. They know exactly what poverty feels like.

As for the middle class—whose quality of life is about to tank—they’re just going to bail. We're already hearing reports that trains heading from Russia toward Norway are packed to capacity.

Sure, the economy will take a massive hit in the long run, but IMO? Don't hold your breath for some big political breakthrough. It's a long shot.

I think you might have completely missed the point here.
The USSR collapsed precisely because of the Cold War, and the USSR was a far more formidable entity than present-day Russia.
If much lighter sanctions back then were enough to dismantle a much stronger Soviet Union, why on earth would you think a weaker Russia would fare any better?

And I have to disagree with the idea that "Russians know poverty." Two entire generations have been born since those times—people who grew up with modern technology and a contemporary lifestyle. They haven't lived through the hardships you're describing.

Maria Moore said:The head of the International Energy Agency, Fatih Birol, actually suggested that Americans might need to turn down their thermostats to help out. It's part of this 10-point plan to stop relying so much on Russian gas. According to the IEA, if every building in the US dropped the heat by just one degree Celsius, we could save about 10 billion cubic meters of gas.

Well, I’ve already taken my part in this. About a week ago, we finally disconnected from the central heating system; we're currently upgrading to solar and installing electric floor heating. Fuck Putin. 😁

*For those with somewhat limited mental resources out there—no, I didn't do this because of Putin. This was simply a matter of good timing and luck.*

The solution will likely be a hybrid approach.
We’re looking at building out new terminals, cutting down on consumption, and pivoting toward different energy sources—for instance, the Germans are already hinting at reconsidering their nuclear phase-out, and honestly, I wouldn't be surprised if they started firing up those plants they thought they’d retired for good.
I suppose Putin has essentially forced Europe to wake up, and in a twisted sort of way, I suppose I should thank him for that clarity, though it would have been much nicer if he hadn't done it at the expense of innocent Ukrainians.
Ultimately, the EU might actually emerge from this period stronger, more self-reliant, and more stable, while Russia... well, if they're lucky, they might just find themselves teleported fifty years back into the past.

At this point, it seems Russia's only real option is to get rid of him ASAP.

There’s no need to try and overhaul everything overnight. We’ll just continue buying from Russia whatever we absolutely have to. We have plenty of time to work on a few things: a) building out our terminals, b) commissioning tankers, c) shifting a portion of our industry back toward domestic oil, and d) constructing new power plants.

Nothing of substance happens overnight, and frankly, there isn't anything that *needs* to happen overnight.
Look, even with all the sanctions in play, Russia simply cannot afford to cut off our access to their gas or oil. If they actually tried to pull that kind of stunt, the chart I posted yesterday would look like child's play compared to what would happen to the Ruble and their entire economy. Within a year, they’d be looking at North Korea with envy.

Timothy Nelson5 said:It was all about Trump.
The first thing that clueless, senile Biden did was basically sign off on sabotaging our own growing hydrocarbon industry just to push the Green New Deal.
The liar media refuses to highlight this as what it actually is—one of those catastrophic moves that gave Putin the ambition to start a war in Ukraine.

If that exponential growth in US production and LNG exports to the EU had kept going, Putin would have thought twice, very carefully, about risking an invasion of Ukraine (which, by the way, for anyone who hasn't caught up, happened because of newly discovered hydrocarbon reserves near the Black Sea coast...)

How exactly are they supposed to ramp up exports to the European Union when the EU lacks the necessary LNG terminals? I suppose the issue isn't on the supplier's side, but rather on our end. Though, maybe this whole mess will just resolve itself thanks to Putin.

Masquerade said:...On top of all that, Putin's popularity in Russia is actually on the rise according to the latest polls. ...

If you happened to catch that video linked yesterday, you'd see that these internal polls aren't worth a damn. If you were to walk up to an average American on the street and ask if they support Putin, they’d probably tell you anything just to get you to move along. I guess the credibility of those surveys is basically zero.

Maria Moore said:Blinken speaking in Brussels today:
"Asked by CNN whether the US is considering energy sanctions against Russia, Blinken said "nothing is off the table" - but added that it is not in the US interest to cut the global energy supply, as this would send the price of oil surging."

So Blinken’s basically saying it’s not in the USA's best interest to slap sanctions on Russian oil and gas imports!
What about the EU?

Look, it's not like the EU is stupid, and neither is America. I suppose they'll just buy the bare minimum required to keep the lights on while they scramble for alternatives. Once those new sources are actually found, built, or online, they’ll tighten the screws even harder. Besides, Russia is in such a tight spot right now that they can't really afford to play hardball and say, "It's all or nothing, we're done exporting, deal with it." They simply don't have that luxury.