Posts by Nathan Thomas12

Noah Diaz said:Prices are down slightly, but the volume delivered isn't the same; it’s actually higher.



So, Russia ends up making the same money regardless of discounts or "sanctions." It wouldn't surprise me if there are some backroom deals or joint ventures happening between allies (China, India, and Russia), where they split the extra profits by reselling oil and gas to those G7 breadbasket types.

Asia has effectively replaced the European Union and G7 markets within a single year.



sources:
Russian total oil exports, January 2022 - January 2023
https://www.bruegel.org/dataset/russ...de-oil-tracker

Reuters reports that in January 2023, oil and gas revenues plummeted by 46% compared to January 2022.
https://www.google.com/amp/s/tass.co...my/1572381/amp

Harold Nelson6 said:I’m with you—sanctions just aren't working.

That deficit we saw back in January and February—hitting $35 billion (which is a 45% shortfall compared to spending, or more simply—they spent nearly 100% more than what actually came into the budget)—is all because Russia is pouring money into salaries, pensions, healthcare, education, and just generally leveling up the quality of life for its people. My Russian visa is currently being processed—I am officially leaving this decaying West behind for a land of milk and honey that, despite the sanctions, is actually thriving.

Better move fast, though—the fences are going up.

Noah Diaz said:... as effectively as what we're seeing today!?

This isn't isolation. This is a joke—a total caricature of sanctions. You have fleets sitting right off the coast of the European Union calmly transferring Russian oil and shipping it off to Asia for about $70 a barrel.🤣

Did you even bother reading that Associated Press article about oil prices?
Probably not, so let me spell it out for you: Ural is sitting at 50 USD.
https://www.google.com/amp/s/tass.co...my/1583177/amp

At the end of the day, you're just trolling and lying because I'm handing you actual Russian sources.

placidnomad87 said:Where were all these heavy-duty sanctions back when the USSR invaded Finland in 1939, or when they moved against Sweden, Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania in 1940? They even forced Romania to hand over what is now Moldova.

I don't usually weigh in much on this thread, but I have to admit, the war in Ukraine is starting to get under my skin. It’s hard to look at them as a model for anyone else when the Ukrainian people deal with some of the highest levels of corruption you'll find anywhere in the world.

It's the same old story from the West—they barely even acknowledge the Holodomor, treating it like a mere footnote or something just for show before the war actually broke out.

Look, I agree Ukraine was incredibly corrupt—basically just a carbon copy of Russian corruption under a Russian boot.
But they're leaning harder into Western influence now, and I wouldn't bet against them slowly adopting European Union regulations. You with me?
Think of it like comparing two different sides of the Mississippi River—say, a struggling industrial town versus its neighbor across the water. One side is totally stagnant, while the other is moving toward a different standard. That’s basically the difference between Russian and Western influence.

Noah Diaz said:Russia managed to bypass the oil price cap and energy sanctions almost immediately, though that was predictable from the jump. They already had a shadow fleet ready to go and plenty of buyers waiting in Asia.

I think even this latest article shows how much pressure is being put on India. They want everyone to believe these sanctions are actually working, but it's all just Russian propaganda.

You just can't quit, can you? Now you're out here dropping TASS news like it's gospel.
https://tass.com/economy/1583177

Noah Diaz said:Everyone else is paying somewhere around $80, while Russians are sitting at $70. You’d have to be incredibly foolish to choose expensive oil over the cheaper Russian stuff.

Only those within the Bureaucracy could be that dense. They seem to have a passion for buying the most expensive options just to kill their own competitiveness on the global market.

At the end of the day, the logical conclusion is simple: the sanctions are working. 😵

We can talk in circles until we're blue in the face, but the only metric that matters is how much cash Russia is actually making from oil sales.
Their revenue has tanked by 40% so far, and honestly, nothing else matters.
Some keyboard Kremlin troll can claim they're selling oil for $100 a barrel, but if the total revenue is down 40%, the math doesn't lie.
#sanctionswork

Mark Carter14 said:That’s a pretty polished way of putting it. But you know how people say it when someone tries to play both sides and ends up getting screwed? It's basically just a fancy version of "you can't have your cake and eat it too" if you ask me.😉

There aren't any sanctions on the actual volume of Russian oil—it's just a price cap. It’s not some deep mystery, and honestly, I don't get how you haven't caught on yet :nezna:

gentlestag15 said:After we saw a $25 billion hole in the federal budget back in January,
it jumped up to $34 billion in February. If things keep moving at this rate, we’re looking at a massive $200 billion deficit by the end of the year.
https://www.reuters.com/article/russ...-idINL8N35E3XD
The numbers are just getting worse by the day.😁

How does their oil revenue tank by 40% when all those Kremlin trolls on here keep insisting they're just bypassing everything and sanctions aren't doing squat? :nezna:
Should we actually listen to these propaganda hacks? :nezna:

Noah Diaz said:Asia has emerged as the primary buyer of Russian oil transported via tankers. Discounts remain minor—roughly $7 for ESPO and $10 for Urals. These discounts are pegged to the price of ICE Brent, which is currently sitting at 82$.

Converted to USD, ESPO is trading at roughly $75, while Urals sits around $72.

Oil Prices Rise as Global Demand Increases

Traders report that offers for ESPO, typically loaded out of Kozmino, were hovering between $6.50 and $7 per barrel below ICE Brent on a delivered basis to China. Meanwhile, the flagship Urals crude shipped from western ports saw discounts of about $10 against the same benchmark. This represents a jump of up to $2 from last month, marking one of the sharpest increases since US sanctions were implemented on Dec. 5.

Major economies become key buyers of oil amid global shifts after most other nations steered clear following the war in Ukraine. The group of buyers willing to import cheap oil from the OPEC+ producer has expanded as more players decide to ignore the US sanctions that previously kept them on the sidelines.

More importers are finding ways to mitigate risk exposure. They are increasingly asking sellers to manage both shipping and insurance, while utilizing non-Western banks and settling payments in yuan, rupees, dirhams, or rubles. According to traders, this strategy gives buyers enough confidence to maintain or even ramp up flows without excessive worry regarding compliance with the $60-a-barrel price cap designed to bypass certain US sanctions.

#price cap 60$, #RussiansBankrupt, #sanctionswork, #SlavaUkraini.

Pure genius—except it doesn't change the reality that their oil revenue has tanked by 40%.

goldenorca11 said:What about that? 😁

I almost just replied with that top sentence! That would have been total trolling, so I bit my tongue.

We have to ask ourselves: where does the truth actually lie between the Russian extreme (that Ukrainians are Nazis committing genocide) and the opposite view (that Ukrainians are defending themselves against an aggressor four times their size, an industrial powerhouse that lies constantly and plays dumb)?

Are Ukrainians Nazis? Is Putin a democratically elected leader?

Or is Putin more like Adolf Hitler, turning Russian prisoners and mercenaries into criminals in the 21st century who would have charged into America if we were their neighbors and crushed us? We aren't neighbors (thank God), so he went after Ukraine instead.

To keep this even tangentially related to the main topic, I should remind everyone of my post from a few days ago regarding the decline of the Russian economy and the sluggish growth within the European Union.

Sanctions are having an effect. It's a slow burn, but it's happening. Over time, the impact will only intensify because there is a social component alongside the economic one.

There is also significant military pressure to consider. The Russians aren't exactly winning this war. Despite the brutal situation in Bakhmut, what major victories has Russia actually achieved since September 2022?

Unless, of course, you count the growing number of Russians realizing they are fighting for all the wrong reasons—fighting for a little psychopath. ☕

Like that psychic Milan would say—it doesn't matter if they're just crawling forward inch by inch; the real question is where they eventually hit the wall.

Noah Martin2 said:It'll work out; there's always time to learn once you grow up.
In the future, if you want to give a complete impression—after they've spent months making it clear you were full of it, and after you've admitted it yourself—just drop the irony at the end. What's the point of using it? You're supposedly neutral and objective, aren't you?

One of these days, even a lucky guesser like Milan will strike gold ☕ then what?

brightheron64 said:To be perfectly honest, I am actually quite relieved that I was wrong and my predictions missed the mark, because I’d much rather be one of those people who sees the glass as half full rather than half empty... 🕺

But hey, if it makes you feel better to think you were right all along and everything is unfolding exactly as you foresaw, then by all means, enjoy it... ☕

Things aren't going the way I expected—I figured the first year of this war would hit Europe way harder.
But don't go thinking you've mastered prophecy just because you missed every single call. ☕
They say assumptions are the mother of all screw-ups. 😍
I know you've been keeping tabs on the insightful Milan. 😵

brightheron64 said:Please don't mistake my perspective for rooting for Russia, heavens no... the reality remains that the war is still being fought in Ukraine. Can we honestly expect that after a year of this and such heavy casualties, Putin will simply decide to "pack up and go home"?

Ultimately, I believe the whole point of sanctions is to disrupt things, cut off resources, and force the other side toward negotiations or compromises... but right now, I don't see any real path forward other than perhaps freezing the current situation and hoping for some kind of future diplomatic arrangement.

As for whether Ukraine can actually win on the battlefield, I have my doubts, to be perfectly honest. They might find success at the negotiating table—partly thanks to those very sanctions—but on the actual front lines... when does that happen?
Perhaps once the massive influx of Leopards, Abramovich tanks, and F-16s arrives, along with half a million perfectly trained soldiers...

Let's be realistic here; even if the Russians are only advancing one step per week, they are still the ones moving forward while others are retreating. I don't know how much longer people will foolishly keep throwing themselves into the meat grinder, but that grinder is spinning for both sides, and it doesn't care who is who.
If you take a closer look at what's happening (from any angle, really), this is basically our own Gallipoli...

You were "being real" at the start of the invasion too, right before the Russians lost Kherson and the Kharkiv region.
And you were being just as "realistic" when you predicted Europe would freeze over, oil hitting $200, and the entire European economy collapsing... and hey, you were always so damn realistic. Now you're just 😵

brightheron64 said:It reminds me of that old joke about someone selling goods at a flea market—a thief swoops in and steals a leather jacket.
The seller calls out to the guy:
- My leather jacket is gone!
- How much was it worth?
- Just what I paid for it...

Regardless of how you look at it, I am firmly convinced that when you weigh the effort against the reward, they are still pulling in more from oil than you or I ever could through our daily grind (and that's not even mentioning the average Russian citizen)...

I agree with all five points.

The real question is simply where the breaking point lies for the Russians, and whether other major oil producers will allow that threshold to be reached...
As for those claiming that Russian oil won't find any buyers at all because of "global" sanctions, let's not waste our breath on that nonsense...

We can argue about it all day, but that massive deficit in the Russian budget is definitely something to smile about.☕
Their economy is shrinking, and it’s obvious they’ll end up with their tails between their legs.
Whether they collapse in two years or five doesn't really matter—the point is they're headed straight for it.

Noah Diaz said:So, they’re averaging over $74 per barrel for their crude, even though that supposed cap is set at $60.

They’re selling high, while the European Union just scribbles in their notebooks that it isn't happening. It's a win-win for everyone involved.

'Sanctions' are working perfectly.

Sanctions don't do squat—but hey, sure, let's ignore the fact that the monthly deficit is sitting at 5% of GDP.

The only thing keeping our borders safe right now is a rock-solid NATO alliance.
If NATO goes weak—or just stops existing entirely—you've got a massive Russia looking to reclaim everything from the old USSR era. That just opens the door for certain neighbors to start eyeing our territory with even more hunger.
Major props to the folks who fought for this country back in the 90s, but honestly? My personal take is that I’d much rather just chill on my couch and watch as Ukraine defends both us and the rest of the US/Europe.

Back to the nuclear rhetoric again. Clearly, nobody’s exactly thrilled with how things are playing out on the battlefield.
Don't sweat it—nobody's actually going to launch anything at Russia, so there's no real need for nukes. We've been chewing on this same tired topic forever.

Joshua Myers432 said:You and your crowd claimed it would be 30%. You were just off by 25%. But I suppose since you argue sanctions are a "long-term game," they work both ways, right? Honestly, 5% isn't terrible for a nation fighting an all-out war—just look at how much stress Ukraine has endured despite all the Western aid.

As for the nuclear rhetoric, that's coming from high-ranking Russian officials, not me. What am I supposed to add to that? When someone holding the world's largest nuclear arsenal starts making open threats, what is a rational person meant to conclude? I'm not asking you, so don't feel obligated to answer. 🍿

Ever since February 24th, people have been openly saying sanctions have a long-term impact. Which part of that simple sentence is confusing you? :nezna:
I haven't seen anyone throwing around "short-term" figures of 30% anywhere. Maybe you read that on some other forum, because it definitely wasn't here. :nezna:
Here are the facts: Russia had a 5% GDP deficit in the first month. That could potentially hit 60% of GDP by year-end. It took us 30 years to rack up debt like that, and we're a corrupt mess at that.

Joshua Myers432 said:A declining GDP growth rate is a downward spiral, and it ends in a recession. A growth rate of 0.3% is absolute garbage. Honestly, even rates around 3% are crap when you consider the debt levels and the interest rates attached to them. The US should be "growing" at 1.3% for 2023—so either that number is total trash, or you're just a mouthpiece for the Republican Party.

First, you were all over the sanctions thing, claiming Europe was shooting itself in both feet and predicting a total freeze-out and economic meltdown.
I mean, isn't this brilliant? We didn't freeze up and we haven't collapsed economically.
What would have happened if your little prophecy actually came true?
Then there's your take on Russia being self-sufficient and immune to sanctions.
Well, look at them—running an economy with a monthly deficit of 5% of GDP!
They can repaint the whole damn house for a year, but it won't change the reality. 🕺
EDIT: maybe go back to talking about nukes—your economic takes are clearly a lost cause. ☕

analogbear5 said:

Look, I get it—I just wanted to hear him address it directly.😍