Posts by Nathan Thomas12

Arthur Miller7 said:Man, he is just *so* worried about senior citizens. Like, it hit him out of nowhere overnight.

First it was the total freeze-out of the European economy, now he’s panicking about the Eurozone collapsing. One prediction flopped, and looks like the second one is headed for the same ditch.
But hey, the guy can always pull some nuclear rhetoric out of his hat when he needs to.☕

Noah Diaz said:Where did I say it was just "available"?🤔
I said exactly this:

You can print money whenever you feel like it, but you can't just manufacture these top-tier resources on demand.

For example, if Russia destroys the infrastructure essential for food production or the power grid, the Ukrainians can't simply retaliate in kind.

Who holds the strategic advantage then? Who actually possesses the resource? At that point, all the money or economic strength in the world won't save you.

So how is Ukraine supposed to hold the line once they run out of actual resources? 😵

Noah Diaz said:Russia and Ukraine are currently at war, so it isn’t exactly shocking that their economies aren't their top priority right now.

The European Union isn't at war, so tell me: why on earth would anyone sabotage their own economy? I get the feeling there is a concerted effort to tear down the EU's financial stability and trigger a crisis reminiscent of what happened nearly a century ago.

Money and economics are always the priority.
The Russian economy is basically being propped up by a massive state deficit—once that dries up, we’ll see just how much those sanctions actually bite.
Sure, the EU isn't at war, but do me a favor and give me some actual data—how much has the EU economy dropped? Give me something measurable, like GDP.

goldenpuma84 said:Major price hikes are coming on March 1st, 2023.

Take a look at your utility bills from Duke Energy...

What happens when the Government's relief measures expire on March 31st, 2023?

Just because the European Union managed to scrape by through one mild winter doesn't mean they've fixed the systemic issue of energy demand versus supply.

Honestly, the European Union hasn't even begun to address the core problem...

I couldn't care less about the Russian deficit. I'm just worried about what life is going to look like for the average American soon...

I’ve said it before—energy prices will stabilize in two or three years. It won't happen sooner, but energy availability shouldn't be an issue after three years max.
Until then, we just have to grit our teeth and get through it. We'll manage.
EDIT: I expected a much worse scenario for this winter. Based on all the Kremlin-worshippers' predictions, we should've been freezing solid by now.

goldenpuma84 said:The guy I was citing argued that China buying up Russian energy proves they're just exploiting the situation for profit rather than being "friendly." So, I asked how American leaders treat their European allies when they sell them energy at five times the price—what kind of relationship is that? And my answer was just that it's simply "market principles."

So why isn't it considered "the market" when China and India buy oil and gas, but instead it's called exploitation?...

Sure, calling it "market-driven" when China and India scoop up oil and gas at these rates is a joke—it’s only happening because Western demand for Russian energy cratered. Once that demand tanked, Russian prices just fell off a cliff automatically. Simple math.

Noah Diaz said:Look, you probably think this is just more Russian propaganda, but honestly, every war follows the exact same logic.

You have to feed the troops, arm the soldiers, stock up on ammunition, and ensure there's enough fuel to get everything to the front lines.

Sure, you can print money whenever you feel like it, but you can't just manufacture physical resources out of thin air.

Mexico just struck lithium, so based on your logic—I'm half-expecting to see an EV factory popping up overnight.

Noah Diaz said:War isn't about cash flow; it’s about raw resources. That is the only logic that matters here. This conflict won't end until one side runs completely dry. Right now, Ukraine is looking much closer to that breaking point.

So, when America sells weapons to its NATO allies, what exactly are we calling that? Is it just an act of love? Or when those last few war profiteers turn around and hike up gas prices—or even blow up energy infrastructure—what’s the label then? Friendship, maybe? 😁

Smuggling is rampant when dealing with European Union or G7 nations, yet trade with countries like India or China is actually booming, reaching volumes even higher than last year.

Russia is gonna cave because of the money—specifically that unsustainable deficit.

placidtiger142 said:So if gas prices are actually lower than they were before the war started, does that mean we’re just getting screwed by paying three times the normal rate right now?

I’m being dead serious here.

I get that prices spiked when those pipeline deliveries through the US started getting cut back, but why is it still such a massive hit for families while the actual market price is sitting way down?

European gas storage was being filled all winter—but obviously not at today's market rates. Prices stayed sky-high until those tanks were full.
Don't sweat it, though; the worst is behind us. In maybe 2 or 3 years, we’ll be totally decoupled from Russian energy and prices will stabilize. The future is bright and everything's gonna be just fine.
On the flip side, things are looking pretty grim for the Kremlin's regime.

goldenpuma84 said:Funny thing is, everything you guys say about how sanctions hit the Russian economy applies just as much to the European economies, yet you act like it's not happening, you little pro-American types...

You're barking up the wrong tree.🕺
So what was the price of gas before versus after the sanctions?
Just in January of this year, Russia was sitting on a deficit equal to 5% of its GDP.

goldenpuma84 said:And at what price are our allies selling energy to Europe?

Did that cross your mind when you were talking about alliances...

Market price—because, you know, capitalism.

Noah Diaz said:What’s actually the point of sanctions when Russia has more than enough resources to sustain itself, especially since their main allies are China and India? They're trading completely unfettered, getting everything they need without breaking a sweat.

It’s like you’ve blocked the front door, but they’re just walking in and out through the back entrance, the windows, the garage, or even the basement. The leaks are everywhere.😁

At what price are they selling oil to China, and what kind of rates were they giving the West before the invasion?

Melissa Peterson19 said:I assume you're a young man, so listen closely: don't let yourself get sucked into fanatical assumptions and prejudices. During the most intense periods of the Cold War, the USSR was capable of producing nuclear bombs, nuclear icebreakers, and submarines; they conquered space and even downed a US spy U2 from 19 miles altitude and captured the pilot... yet here you are asking about tractors and other trivialities. Are you aware that their heavy machinery in Alaska starts up perfectly fine at -40°C? Do some research and try to grasp the sheer scale of that nation. They can survive a nuclear war, whereas others likely cannot; their resources are inexhaustible. This is a country with deep roots, tradition, and a culture that has contributed to civilization just as much as powerful European nations like Italians, Germans, Frenchmen, or Englishmen.

And don't worry, the collapse of Russia as a state is impossible. There will always emerge a leader strong enough to hold it together, whether through diplomacy or force, regardless of the cost. The West won't allow a collapse either, because letting the world's largest nuclear arsenal fall into unstable hands would create a situation that is impossible to control.

Don't fall for the pipe dreams of Putinophobes.

Imperial Russia might have been known for its culture, but this version of Russia is known for being uncivilized.
Don't lump them together.
Out here in the West, in the civilized world, you actually get to enjoy democracy and free speech. That kind of thing is strictly off-limits in "modern" Russ.

rowdybadger22 said:As it stands, Russian reserves can only truly be seized and redistributed—say, to Ukraine—if a formal state of war is declared against Russia.

What they actually had the opportunity to do at the onset of the conflict was simply refuse to pay for Russian oil and gas directly; instead, they could have diverted those payments into escrow accounts, holding them in limbo until Russia ceases its violations of international law and stops the illegal invasion of Ukraine. But, alas, that path wasn't taken.

Russian reserves could be snatched away from them like it’s nothing, whenever the time is right.
When you're dealing with a bully, you've gotta play rough—they don't understand any other language. ☕

Nancy Gomez26 said:Foreign currencies carry weight abroad because, at the end of the day, it’s all part of the same machine. Every central bank—whether local or national—essentially operates as a single entity under the umbrella of the Bank for International Settlements in Basel. They act as the central bank for all banks. It comes down to mutual recognition; they validate one another, which provides that necessary layer of legitimacy back home. It’s an interesting irony: humanity struggles to reach a consensus on almost everything else, yet when it comes to the money, the global elites reached their agreements long ago, quietly and efficiently. A self-made pact isn't inherently a bad thing. But given basic human nature, it will likely end badly.

You're getting your wires crossed regarding the BIS. The Federal Reserve handles the US Dollar, and the European Central Bank handles the Euro. Central banks manage the system's liquidity; the BIS doesn't have anything to do with that part.
The BIS is more like a clearinghouse for central banks—nothing more, nothing less.
Market forces dictate what a currency is worth, provided it's actually a market currency. That Ruble? It's strictly political territory, not a market currency.

Bryan Booth82 said:Anything is possible, really. Right now, it feels like Russia is just scrambling to "put out fires." Honestly, I can't wrap my head around what they’d actually gain by forcing gold into the payment system, or how on earth they'd make that functional in a modern economy... but let's be real: even if they did, it wouldn't touch the deficit, which is only going to keep ballooning over time anyway.
Best regards,

Let that deficit run wild, see if I care. ☕

Noah Diaz said:Look, when it comes to sanctions, they matter immensely. They dictate how Russ exports oil, gas, and other resources while importing essentials. For instance, they picked up drones from Iran, which joined the SCO last year.

The SCO and BRICS could eventually evolve into a full-blown military-economic bloc. One capable of controlling vital trade routes and resources while directly challenging American hegemony.

That is the multipolar world everyone keeps talking about.

Yeah, sure. And in the near future, Russia will be cranking out the best microchips on the planet.

gentlestag15 said:Back in January 2022, the Russian government was pulling in about $2,089 billion while spending roughly $1,964 billion
leaving them with a surplus of $125 billion.
Fast forward to January 2023, and things look pretty different: revenues hit $1,356 billion against a massive $3,117 billion in spending.
That’s a deficit of $1,760 billion—basically, their hole is deeper than their entire income.
https://tradingeconomics.com/russia/...t-budget-value

Just waiting on the February numbers now.🍿

It's like the old saying, "Who's gonna foot the bill?"☕
For us, inflation is just how we're paying off the COVID mess and the Russian aggression—it'll probably drag on for two or three years. Then we move on.
But this Russian aggression and war? That's going to hit a crippled economy hard. Whoever survives will be the ones left talking.

To follow up on that—Russia’s production has taken a massive hit, yet their GDP is somehow still climbing.
It really makes you wonder about the sheer scale of how much they're dumping into war spending. Honestly, it looks like they're headed straight for a total meltdown—government spending is usually a dead giveaway for that kind of mess.

Joshua Myers432 said:We'll see. A bunch of self-proclaimed economic and military experts here were all preaching that their GDP would crater by 30%, yet it only dipped by 3%. It’s a wash. So, what’s the next move?

From day one, every Western politician has been preaching about how sanctions would have a massive long-term impact.
Putin has been saying the sanctions won't touch Russia.
You're just quoting Putin—so why aren't you quoting what the Western leaders are saying? Look, whether the Russian GDP fluctuates in 2023 doesn't matter nearly as much as where it stands in ten years. It’s not rocket science.
Just so you're clear on the math: GDP isn't just about production; consumption plays a huge role too. This means Russian production could actually drop while their GDP still climbs. How? Simple—massive government spending on the war effort. But yeah, they can't run that play forever.

Noah Diaz said:Do you honestly think they’re paying much higher prices for energy than those bakeries over in the European Union? 😁

Beyond having an abundance of critical resources to spare, Russia is also a member of two major international organizations:

BRICS

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/BRICS
The BRICS have a combined area of 39,746,220 km2 (15,346,100 sq mi) and an estimated total population of about 3.21 billion, or about 26.7% of the world's land surface and 41.5% of the global population. Brazil, Russia, India, and China are among the world's ten largest countries by population, area, and GDP, and the latter three are widely considered to be current or emerging superpowers. All five states are members of the G20, with a combined nominal GDP of US$26.6 trillion (about 26.2% of the gross world product), a total GDP (PPP) of around US$51.99 trillion (32.1% of global GDP PPP), and an estimated US$4.46 trillion in combined foreign reserves (as of 2018).

and

SCO (Shanghai Cooperation Organisation)

The aim of the organization is to strengthen good-neighborly, friendly relations and mutual trust among Member States; to exert common efforts for the protection of regional peace, security and stability; to fight against terrorism, radicalism, separatism, organized crime and illegal migration; to reinforce cooperation in political, economic, scientific, technologic and energy, as well as environmental issues.

Do you really believe these partners are selling them goods at a markup, or that they've actually been crippled by sanctions? You can't impose meaningful sanctions on nations like China, India, or Russia. These "sanctions" have been an empty charade from day one. 🤣

Russia is turning out to be a much smaller player than everyone thought. It took the West less than a year to pivot to an economy that doesn't rely on Russian energy. Now, Russia is just stuck falling further behind the West and becoming permanently tethered to China.
To deal with China, the West would need at least a decade. Sure, China is the world's manufacturing powerhouse, but factories can always be moved elsewhere and production can be spread out globally.
On the flip side, China can't survive without the West. Not just because the West built that manufacturing machine in the first place, but because their whole economy is drowning in debt and relies entirely on constant growth.