Posts by Nathan Thomas12

Arthur Miller7 said:But next year, or maybe next winter, or the winter after that... give me a break!

America’s gonna be looking at running out of oil and gas almost every single year. It happened last year, it’s happening this year, and it’ll probably happen again next year too. ☕

brightheron64 said:Everything I just mentioned holds true, but... there's a catch, because the real question isn't just "how long can Russia hold out?" rather, the question is "how much longer can the rest of us endure this?"!

Russia-Ukraine War
https://www.bbc.com/news/business-60623941

How Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine Is Tearing Apart the Global Food System
https://www.bloombergquint.com/marke...al-food-system

You might be able to skip driving or even skip turning on the heat, but you absolutely have to eat...

Back in March, you were predicting we'd run out of oil, then gas, then food.
Well, it's mid-December now and we're still standing...

brightheron64 said:That’s actually fantastic news because... well, the principle of connected vessels still seems to apply here:

f things follow the current trend leading up to next Tuesday, December 20th, we might see diesel prices dip by about 15 cents, which would bring the new price down to roughly $3.75 per gallon. As for gasoline, it could potentially drop by about 30 cents, meaning we might see a new price of around $3.25 per gallon...

Wait, how does that work?
For months now, you've been predicting that Europe was going to freeze solid.

Donna Harris11 said:When is this bankruptcy finally going to happen?

We've been listening to you guys drone on for months about how Europe is headed for a deep freeze. Funny how everyone suddenly lost their nerve on that one.
Ever since the jump, the narrative has been all about how sanctions would take years to bite. Now we're talking total economic collapse in six months? It’s just plain dishonest.

Nathan Evans78 said:Seriously, take a look at their Month-over-Month numbers before you jump to conclusions.

Sure, they’re down YTD, but it isn't like they're in a freefall. We’ve already cycled through nearly ten rounds of sanctions.

So, what am I supposed to do? Am I sitting here waiting for the 25th round of sanctions just to see a total collapse? 🤣

Anyway, why don't you tell us when those Kremlin fanboys' "predictions" will actually hit—you know, like oil hitting $200 and Europe freezing to death without gas?
Russia could be posting 20% annual GDP growth for all we care, as long as the West refuses to play ball with the imperialists.

Amanda Allen4 said:Oil is essentially infinite because there is always more out there—it’s just that some of it is far too expensive to actually bother drilling for.

Right now, we’ve only mapped out enough gas and oil to last maybe 55 to 60 years.
But let’s be real—nature isn't just cranking out 100 million barrels a day to keep up with our massive appetite.

brightheron64 said:It is an intriguing thesis, certainly.

How else would you explain the fact that up until the 70s, the Chinese weren't even capable of building what the Germans and Britons were producing for Bismarck or Queen Victoria, yet here they are today...

Just consider this one little detail:

Nearly a quarter of all cars newly registered in China are now electric or plug-in hybrid vehicles, meaning that the country is ahead of Europe and well ahead of The US in adoption of Thes technologies. Half The world's EVs ara sold in China.

Do you honestly think the Chinese—unlike the Russians—are just importing electric vehicles? That they aren't developing their own tech and manufacturing capabilities along the way... Can you even begin to imagine what the landscape will look like in five or ten years, and who will actually be leading the world in EV production?...

And that is exactly where the catch lies. Honestly, please just view this as a bit of lamentation or a debate... rather than some attempt to take the side of the Russians. I am simply wondering if, in the long run, these sanctions might actually force Russia into a new era of industrialization, transforming them from arrogant exporters and importers into genuine technological competitors...

Of course, it's a process that takes time, but once you learn a lesson like this, you'd hope it would prompt some reflection, much like what happened with the agricultural sector...

Chinese people aren't isolated from the West, and they didn't grow solely by bleeding the West dry—there isn't a single developed nation out there that isn't tied to the West.
Everything else is just noise.

brightheron64 said:Actually, no, Russians weren't self-sufficient; they were just lazy people who calculated how to export enough natural resources to earn more than enough to buy every single luxury the global market has to offer. They were essentially like Middle Eastern oil states that sit on massive reserves, just with a much larger population to support...

Sanctions completely change the dynamic here. Up until the 90s, the USSR was actually one of the world's leading importers of grain and agricultural products. You see the same pattern with Russia as an independent nation, but the narrative is slowly shifting, particularly after those initial sanctions back in 2014, which led to Russia becoming the world's largest grain producer by 2017, while the rest of their agricultural output has also seen a massive surge...

Just for a bit of perspective, if Saudi Arabia were hit with sanctions similar to what the Russians faced today and nobody bought their oil anymore, they would literally starve...

When we look at technology, just as an example, when Sberbank was sourcing new servers, they reached the conclusion that the Russian Elbrus-8C simply couldn't compete with an Intel Xeon Gold processor. Now that Intel is off the table, both the Elbrus and Baikal processors will be considered perfectly fine. And it doesn't stop there; they're going to pour investment into further developing them. Sure, they might lag behind technologically, but what even is technology these days? Is it some sort of esoteric, guarded family secret like the way someone crafts a violin? Nowadays, if you present a certain group of geniuses and top-tier experts with a blank check, everything else becomes just a matter of time and money—which they certainly have plenty of... Take Hyundai, for instance; if they decide to build a sports car like the i30 n, they can simply acquire a piece of BMW's M division and their specialized know-how. And let's not forget that once upon a time, a budget-friendly Hyundai Pony was a major competitor to the Zastava and Yugo models on the American market...

You have to realize this is a long game; the more we force Americans to figure things out on their own, the more we are actually forcing them toward domestic development, which ultimately means they'll buy less from abroad, and that's to our disadvantage...

To be honest, I couldn't care less about Russia, but if this makes you happy, feel free to keep viewing all of this through the lens of Russophilia...

Interesting point. But if that's the case, why can't the Chinese produce what Germans can? Germany builds high-end machinery for basically every industry, and China isn't even close.
If technology is so easy to grab, why don't the Chinese just copy everything?
P.S. Comparing grain production to microchips, heavy machinery, or jet engines is a bad call. Besides, those combines used for the grain usually come from the West.

Anthony Hill5 said:Could you perhaps elaborate on that point, as I am entirely unclear as to what you are implying?

Which specific definition are they claiming to have changed?

Russia is definitely stuck in a recession thanks to all those sanctions—wiredseal7 is just playing the "whataboutism" game.

Dennis Bailey5 said:Europe filled up its storage tanks and American pockets, while the US finally saw its century-old dream realized by pushing Russia out of Europe. We’re all going to pay the price for this...

I'll take American pockets over Russian ones any day.

wiredseal7 said:Just pointing out that Americans love to play hypocrite—accusing OPEC+ of exactly what they've been doing themselves for the last six months—while calling it something completely different.

So, what exactly have they been doing for the last six months?

wiredseal7 said:The deficit in the Eurozone is really just the boomerang effect of those Russian sanctions.

Where'd you hear that?
The Boeing 737—just about ready to hit the skies:
The certification process for the Boeing 737—or whatever they’re calling their latest attempt to play catch-up—is looking like a massive uphill battle. It's not just about passing some tests; it's about navigating a regulatory maze that feels more like a political minefield than actual safety checks. Honestly, trying to get these planes cleared for takeoff feels a lot like trying to get a permit for a backyard pool in Los Angeles—endless paperwork, endless scrutiny, and everyone watching your every move just waiting for you to slip up.

Then there's that whole Russia-China joint venture with the C929—just another mess in the making.
Looks like the competition is finally heating up—Boeing 737 isn't going to be the only player left in the sky forever. It’s just a matter of how much pressure the industry can take before things shift.

Sure, it says here that China might actually favor Western companies over Russian ones—but let's be real, it’s probably just those sanctions doing the heavy lifting—though given how hostile the US has been acting lately, maybe they'll actually change their minds.

Bottom line: there aren't any sanctions on gas.
The other sanctions would have to stay in place for decades.

The entire continent of Africa—all 54 countries combined—has a GDP that’s barely half of what Japan pulls in.

Chris Williams said:I suppose sanctions won't lead to any meaningful shifts, not even on an economic level. Out of nearly 200 nations globally, only about 45 have signed on to sanction Russia. That leaves roughly 150 countries that haven't. It suggests that Russia still has plenty of places to export its oil, gas, precious metals, food, and other resources.

We’ll see the actual impact of these sanctions quite soon, probably within weeks. Of those 45 countries, 27 are part of the European Union, which includes small players like us here in America. This winter, we might witness how these sanctions end up crippling economies, manufacturing, and industry, essentially dragging everyone back a century—unless, of course, all parties decide to sit down at the negotiating table.

I’ve heard reports coming out of Germany about people scavenging fallen branches from forests just to stay warm, yet the government forbids it, as if they can't be trusted touching state-owned timber.

A government that fails to protect its own citizens is merely providing a hollow gesture toward protecting Ukraine. It all seems like games played by the military-industrial-banking complex in the USA, where we are all—including those ineffective politicians in the EU—just puppets dancing to their tune. And yes, that includes poor Ukraine as well.

If you ask me, sanctions are producing results, but it isn't Russia feeling the sting—it's us in the EU. So, I guess you should consider who the real enemy actually is....

For some perspective, look at Africa—you've got 1.3 billion people spread across 54 nations, yet their combined nominal GDP is less than $3 trillion. Meanwhile, Japan sits pretty with a nominal GDP of $5.5 trillion.
Of those 150 countries that haven't joined the sanction party, the only one that actually matters is China.

analogmarlin4 said:If a conflict wasn't actually in their interest, they wouldn't be playing such a neutral hand when it comes to decisions regarding Russia. It's just much easier for them if Europe stays weak.

The Chinese economy is basically dancing on the edge of a recession. They've averaged about 0.4% growth over the last four quarters, which is a joke considering their national target was 5.5%.
On top of that, they're drowning in massive debt and clearly aren't feeling the vibe right now—and when China hits a recession, the whole world feels the hit.

rowdyraven112 said:So now you're thinking like me. I agree on the facts: we need major powers. Otherwise, someone like Orban or Meloni could actually try to act on those territorial claims they bark about during campaigns. As it stands, they know it stays just as campaign rhetoric. Then the news networks blow it up into a scandal. It's unnecessary.
The problem arises when dictators within those big military states lose their minds. Imagine an American Putin sitting in the White House. Suddenly, "being under Americans" doesn't sound so great. Sure, there are democratic mechanisms in place, but we've already seen how easily a mob can storm the Capitol.

The situation at the front is so messy you can't predict more than an hour ahead. One thing is certain: Putin will try to seize the initiative with fresh troops. But if he fails and the Ukrainians strengthen significantly, I fear this ends with two or three nuclear bombs. I don't think they'll be standard 100-kilotonners; likely much weaker.
After that, anything short of a total blockade of Russia would be a mistake. If we have to fill the Bosporus with rubble, so be it. We are underestimating the Russians. Stalin ran the exact same playbook when Germany invaded Russia. He called on the church to rally the people to fight. Putin is doing the same thing, just in a different era.

LinaK described the trends best: 25% of Ukrainians might surrender, 25% won't fight, and 25% will fight like hell, which is why they were attacked like devils. But in reality, 25% of a 10 million population capable of fighting is more than enough. Looking at history, we started with less than 10%. It's a similar story in Russia. That's why I say: never underestimate the Russians.

It's unlikely they'll drop nukes because that opens a Pandora's box. But let's be real, the Ukrainians aren't harmless either—they've got massive amounts of nuclear waste, and Russia could end up getting contaminated pretty bad too.

Linda Collins3 said:New EU sanctions against Russia are being announced, including price caps on oil sales to "third countries" (according to Teleteks).

Does anyone actually know what this means in practice, or how they plan to enforce it?
Are they just going to stop providing insurance for tankers? Is that even going to work?

If a country decides to ignore the sanctions, they could end up getting hit themselves—on top of losing access to tanker insurance.

Joshua Myers432 said:Besides, by springtime, the Ukrainians will either be in Moscow or Putin will decide to toss a Sarmat our way, and then we won't have any more problems to worry about. 🙂

Honestly, I wouldn't be surprised if the whole thing just blew up during launch.

wanderingmaker3 said:Ever tried taking on a thankless job—like trying to calculate exactly how many trucks we need just to keep everyone fed?
It’s a massive number, but honestly, that’s not even the hard part.

The real issue for the US Army is morale and basic training.

The real headache is going to be all those body bags heading back home to Russia. Once people start seeing that, maybe then we'll see some actual massive protests...

Timothy Nelson5 said:What would stop them?

The simple fact is, those countries would just rush to get their own nuclear arsenal immediately.

It’s an open secret that Japan has its own "readiness" program ready to go.

And I find it hard to believe South Korea doesn't have something similar up their sleeve.
South Korea's GDP is roughly on par with Russia's.
Japan's is nearly three times larger.

There are even circles claiming Taiwan might already have a few pieces tucked away...

There isn't even a 0.0001% chance that nobody would react, and Russ knows that all too well..

I guess Ukrainians would be pretty naive—maybe even foolish—if they weren't preparing to scramble and put together a few units themselves under these conditions.

Building a nuke? Probably out of reach. But they’ve got plenty of radioactive waste lying around. If nothing else, they could at least use that to poison the rivers and the farmland.