Posts by Nathan Thomas12

urbanotter said:The Western buyer was buying rubles, not paying for gas.

You can only pay for gas in rubles, and you can acquire those rubles using Yuan if that's what you have on hand.

I don't really have anything to add there; the Russian economy dropped by about 4%, which is quite different from the 11.5% or higher many were anticipating.

It seems a few people's crystal balls were a bit off.

That dip wasn't exactly a shocker, considering how many Western companies pulled out of Russia due to the sanctions.
At the end of the day, most of that is just service-sector stuff. A Russian citizen isn't going to starve just because they can't grab a McDonald's burger, but a German might be shivering in 20-degree weather when it hits -20 outside if the gas runs out or becomes prohibitively expensive.
Word is that prices hit $3,000 per 1,000m3, while Russian gas was being sold for under $300.😉

Reuters isn't exactly delivering any sunshine regarding the German economy lately.

https://www.rekreativno.info/2022/08...85C2msIvaXWz20

So, the Western buyer sends 100 million Euros to Gazprombank, and you're telling me he paid in rubles. Sure, okay!
On the day of the invasion, the USD/RUB rate was 80, now it's 60. Back then, Russian GDP per capita was about $10k, or 800,000 RUB. Since then, there's been a 4% drop in USD terms, bringing it down to $9,600. That translates to roughly 560,000 RUB.
Bottom line: before the invasion, Russian GDP per capita was 800,000 RUB, today it's 560,000 RUB. That’s a 40% crash. How do you spin that? Plus, prices within Russia have climbed in rubles. Smells like a disaster to me. Mark my words.
Car production alone tanked by 97%... where did the rest of it go?

Nathan Thomas12 said:Michael Jordan, the ruble rate is a total sham. You can't just freely swap rubles for foreign currency in Russia.
Plus, the Russian economy only dropped 4%—but that's measured in dollars. For example, if GDP per capita was $100 before the invasion and it's $96 now... well, that pre-invasion number used the old rate, and this one uses the new one. At 60 rubles to the dollar, that's a 4% drop. Just imagine if the ruble were actually free on the market; the rate would be over 150 to the dollar. How massive would that drop look then?

To put it simply, say I make $33 a month, which is roughly $14. If the local currency becomes trash, I'm still making $33 a month. How many dollars is that? If it helps you wrap your head around it, try converting it to pesos instead of dollars.

So, before the invasion, it was 80 RUB to the USD. Let's say GDP per capita was $10,000 and now it's $9,600. That $10,000 used to be 800,000 RUB. Now, that $9,600 is only 576,000 RUB. Measured in rubles, that's a 40% drop. Measured in USD? It's just 4%.

urbanotter said:Comparisons like this don't even really warrant a response, but some people find them to be a very "appealing" indicator of the supposed decline in Russian standards. In reality, the Ruble has strengthened immensely due to measures taken by the Russian CB, so they are actually working to weaken the currency now because a strong Ruble hurts their exports.
The only fair comparison would be seeing how much one can actually buy with an average salary in the US,
but then the picture wouldn't look quite so "appealing."
When you look at which companies left Russia due to sanctions, the drop in living standards is far less significant than suggested; instead of the expected 10% drop, the economy fell by 5%, which is similar to the contraction seen in the European economy.
But let them keep writing their panegyrics about sanctions so that the local Anglophiles don't get too unsettled or excited. ☕

If the official exchange rate were truly favorable, there would be no reason for a "black market" to exist, especially if you could buy more Euros with your Rubles at a bank than you could on the street.
Russia maintains a surplus in its foreign trade, so there is simply no necessity for black-market currency trading.

Many people who might have been spending Euros on the Atlantic coast this summer were actually spending Rubles at Russian resorts, or using their local currencies in countries that didn't implement any sanctions.

Michael Jordan, the ruble rate is a total sham. You can't just freely swap rubles for foreign currency in Russia.
Plus, the Russian economy only dropped 4%—but that's measured in dollars. For example, if GDP per capita was $100 before the invasion and it's $96 now... well, that pre-invasion number used the old rate, and this one uses the new one. At 60 rubles to the dollar, that's a 4% drop. Just imagine if the ruble were actually free on the market; the rate would be over 150 to the dollar. How massive would that drop look then?

To put it simply, say I make $33 a month, which is roughly $14. If the local currency becomes trash, I'm still making $33 a month. How many dollars is that? If it helps you wrap your head around it, try converting it to pesos instead of dollars.

Nancy Gomez26 said:Still, you have to admit the Fed can print as much as they damn well please, right? They could theoretically fund massive stock market speculation by lending at dirt-cheap interest rates if they felt like it. Let's take this to a private thread.

Not quite. A government can't just borrow directly from the Fed. Money flows into the economy through commercial banks, period.
If those banks run low on cash to hand out loans, they have to go find it somewhere. They can borrow from other banks, sell bonds, or tap into the Fed via primary issuance. That’s where the new money actually comes from.
On the flip side, if there's too much USD floating around in bank accounts and the dollar starts tanking, the Fed sells dollars to those commercial banks—basically sucking the cash right back out of the system in one move.
The Fed's whole job is keeping things balanced; if they don't, the currency loses its punch. COVID-19 forced a massive wave of money printing because governments were busy bailing out the economy—and yeah, that's what triggered the inflation. You can't just pump money into the system without consequences.

Nancy Gomez26 said:That assertion is far from reality.
Long ago—back when wars were fought on actual battlefields and the Rothschilds funded both sides through massive credit lines—one of the primary conditions for lending was that the victor would settle their own debts along with the debts of the losing side. It sounds paradoxical at first glance, yet the logic is sound.
As for money today... it has lost its substance. It isn't even a pile of colorful paper anymore—neither dollars nor lire—but merely a digital figure sitting in some computer, somewhere. You can generate as much of it as you please in an instant; they don't even need paper or ink to print it anymore. Consequently, the concept is losing its inherent meaning. In the modern economy, being frozen out of the system—exactly how they handled the Russian Federation—is a far more pressing concern than the hypothetical question of future war reparations.

Not quite. Aside from actual cash, all the money moving through the system is sitting in primary bank accounts at the central banks. New money doesn't just pop into existence as random numbers on a screen—the central bank keeps a tight leash on that.

Megan Thomas5 said:"Quote:"

nina kent Asks: I mean, I never really thought of these major powers as "the big three evils"—at least not during that relatively peaceful stretch in this part of the world after communism collapsed. Now? I’d say that description fits Russia perfectly. But honestly, it feels like saying sharks are evil just because they're massive and powerful. Being big and strong is just how they exist. Russia is honestly lagging way behind, and China is playing an entirely different game that doesn't really align with our interests anyway. Then you've got other major players like India and the Islamic world, who are even further off from our idea of a "good life." I feel the same way. In my book, the USA is definitely more "good" than "evil." Honestly, without them, the values we hold dear here in America and across the West probably wouldn't even exist today. I'm doing my internship. If America hadn't existed—as a superpower, a society, or even just a concept—we’d be in a completely different world. Think about it: would we have even beaten the Nazis without American support? Or how did Europe manage to shake off those old-school hierarchical systems without the push from the US toward democratic values? We basically imported their entire blueprint for modern life: equality, the rule of law, freedom of speech... even the tech that changed everything for the average person, from refrigerators and cars to rock and roll, TVs, and now computers. Everything. What kind of nonsense is this? So what, did it just fly in from Russia, China, some random spot in Saudi Arabia or India, or maybe Iran? Who knows. Maybe there’d be a tiny slice of it, but it would probably only be for the aristocracy and the bourgeoisie. It’d likely end up just like Russia... Is this what people call "American idolatry"? I wouldn't go that far. It’s perfectly obvious to me that there are plenty of idiots and plenty of bad things happening over there. But what I said above? To me, that's just an undeniable fact of modern history. It’s all just one big Greek tragicomedy happening at once. 😁 So today we're acting like America is this big protective brother looking out for us, when in reality, she's basically our European daughter, right? 🤔 If you didn't have Europe (and yeah, that includes Russia), there wouldn't even be an America.

Look, I get it—the USA isn't perfect by any stretch of the imagination. But honestly? It’s still the best thing that could have happened to the world.
Let’s be real for a second—most of us are living pretty damn good lives. We've got plenty of stuff, we can travel wherever we feel like, and we have the freedom to say whatever's on our minds.

Just an example of a typical day: you wake up, head to a job with decent conditions, and if you’ve got the skills or the right training, you don't end up wrecking your health in the process. Once you clock out, you actually have choices—you can go for a walk, ride your bike, grab a beer, or grab some food.
You could spend your night bingeing Netflix, catching a game, hitting the pub, or scrolling through Facebook and Instagram to comment on everything without a second thought. You could be on Tinder looking for a hookup, or just traveling the world. Instead, you're here.

Imagine if the US didn't exist and we were stuck dealing with some Russian or Chinese regime running the show instead.
Everything we use today wasn't actually invented by them. If they ever did come up with anything, it wouldn't be for the general public—it would just be some niche thing for the party elites.
So you’d rather go work a manual labor job since apparently everything else is pure evil... But hey, once you're off the clock, you won't have much of a choice. Most technology wouldn't even exist. Not to mention movies, shows, or games—if we look at our own society, how many modern series are actually Russian or Chinese? Zero? Yeah, exactly.
Games? They’re basically at zero.

If it weren't for the major players like Russia, China, Iran, and their crowd—who haven't contributed a single damn thing to the world besides tyranny, war, and crushing human rights—we wouldn't have made it past the 1900s.

The fact that the USA exists as it does is proof enough that tyrants won't be running the show.

Look at Japan or South Korea. They've been under the American "boot" for years. They're great nations, sure, but Americans gave them access to Western markets and the dollar.
I don't even need to bring up what it's like under the Russian boot.

Andrew Booth29 said:So, what exactly is your alternative to U.S. Treasuries then? 🤔

Russian bonds

Adam Lee13 said:Man, this whole argument is just one of those things that's been totally debunked a hundred times over. I mean, if you look at the actual numbers, non-Western currencies only made up about 5.8% of reserve currency back in 2021, and in 2011, they were sitting at a measly 5.5%...

Look, you can call the petrodollar a myth if you want, but then I guess it’s also a myth that the whole world buys goods from China using US Dollars. And if that's "stupid," then it’s also "stupid" that China—and pretty much every oil exporter out there—uses that money to buy US Treasuries or take out loans denominated in USD.

The dollar remains the world's reserve currency today. Central Banks hold around 59 % of their reserves in U. S. dollars, according to the International Monetary Fund (IMF).3 Many of the reserves are in cash or U.S bonds, such as U.S. Treasuries. Dollar-denominated debt outside the U.S. continues to rise, with levels reaching $13.4 trillion as of mid-2022.

boldotter2 said:Exactly! It's not even about the profit for Americans, it's more about the leverage you get from controlling the oil supply. It's more important to them that everyone else *doesn't* gain that kind of influence. Maybe that's just how it goes.

Ukraine will eventually wrap up its whole situation with Russia, but I think that's just one chapter in the much bigger American playbook.
They're going straight for Russia's throat. It's all about resource control. After that, China might just have to become the biggest supporter of renewable energy.

Seriously, the United States has a now or never moment right now. They could take down Russia, and maybe even China too. And honestly, it's probably all thanks to Putin and his way of dealing with frustration through these imperialist power plays.

The US doesn't care who owns the oil or how much they have, as long as it’s sold in US Dollars. Libya and Iraq tried moving away from the greenback, but it didn't last. Then came Iran and Venezuela, and they got hit with embargos.

Joshua Myers432 said:Grow up, man, you're exhausting. We can debate using actual arguments without needing to agree, but seriously, you've crossed the line.

So what, you're actually claiming NATO is to blame for the invasion of neighboring Afghanistan, snatching territory from Georgia, and turning Belarus into some kind of puppet state?

Joshua Myers432 said:First off, there’s always been tension between Russia/the USSR and the West—sometimes more, sometimes less, but it’s always been there. That’s literally why NATO exists, as a defense against Russia/the USSR. NATO is Russia's enemy, plain and simple. Anyone trying to argue otherwise is just playing dumb and using mental gymnastics to prove a point that isn't true.

Second, if you actually knew how to read for comprehension, you’d see I’m not saying the Cold War and today are identical—that's impossible—I'm talking about where the line is being drawn. NATO's eastern borders used to sit right at the edge of West Germany, then Germany unified, then Poland, Czech Republic, Slovakia, Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia, Romania, and Canada all joined up. Every single Warsaw Pact member and pieces of the USSR followed, and then, for the grand finale, you’ve got Ukraine making some shy little request that maybe they could join too. Well, damn. So now this balding complex guy draws a line in the sand like Americans in Cuba back in '62: either back off or we go to war.

And Ukraine was supposed to join NATO?
Ukraine had a red light from NATO even before 2014, and after 2014, joining wasn't even theoretically on the table because their borders aren't even settled. So, the 2022 invasion is totally unnecessary if you look at it through that lens.
Basically, bringing up NATO is just pure propaganda and isn't the actual reason for the invasion.
Back in 2013, Ukraine signed a $10 billion deal with Shell Oil to extract gas and oil around Crimea and the Donbas. That was just the starter kit; the real plans involved contracts for $50 billion or more. That’s where you should be looking for the real motives... give me a break with this "NATO" nonsense.

Christian Torres3 said:Europe can survive without them, sure, but saying they’re "totally irrelevant"? Sorry, I’m not buying it. A huge chunk of them come here and spend 😉
plenty of cash.

Look, tourists from Russia and Ukraine account for about 4% of all stays in Southern California. If you just kick both groups out, does that 4% of capacity just sit empty? Of course not.
If they're booking up those high-end rentals, someone else is stepping in—maybe some guy from the Midwest or a wealthy Norwegian who actually has the cash to pay for a luxury suite.

rowdyraven112 said:We could sit here all day debating who attacked whom, who occupied territory, who committed ethnic cleansing, rape, war crimes, or set up puppet states. We can go on forever.

The way you're talking makes me think you'd rather see your neighbor lose two cows just so you can have one. ☕

Spot on—Russia basically slaughtered two of Ukraine's cows, but they ended up losing one of their own in the process too.

Joshua Myers432 said:Why are we shoving all Russians into one single bucket? 🤦 What is this, 1991? We went from the Battle of Munich to dealing with you internet warriors. You can't just generalize and paint every Russian with the same brush just because the Russian propaganda machine is rambling about something. Who actually claims those Russian tourists are supporting this aggression against Ukraine?

Look, if 80% of the country backs Putin, then you can bet 80% of those tourists back him too. So yeah, don't act like those Russian tourists aren't supporting the aggression.
Plus, we saw those massive rallies in Germany where Russians were parading around in support of Putin. What we *didn't* see—and that's the kicker—was any massive crowds of Russians protesting against him.

rowdyraven112 said:And what’s the payoff? Zero. What do we lose? Just the average Russian spending near Leningrad, which isn't much anyway.
What do we actually lose here? Not much. A vacation to a far-off destination costs at least $1,000 per person plus extras. We didn't have a ton of Russians to begin with, but one single charter flight of them probably spends more in one day than 5,000 people on a cruise ship. Besides, the kind of trips like that are taken by wealthy Russians who can afford a coffee at $17 in downtown San Francisco without blinking. ☕

The West keeps obsessing over Russians, which honestly does them a massive favor since they already loathe the West to their core. At this rate, if all their Eastern neighbors collectively ditch the West for Russia, we might as well call it a day... everyone wins, right?

Joshua Myers432 said:Look, the Russians have been pretty damn clear about this since the early 1950s: they don't want NATO on their borders, and they certainly don't want it anywhere near them. It’s a simple choice. You either respect their demands—which, let's be real, are issued from a position of strength—or you go to war. Or, you can just sit there thinking they're bluffing.

Europe thought they were dealing with option three, but instead, they got hit with option two. 😁

So what, they spent 10 years invading their neighbor in Afghanistan because of NATO? Or they took territory from Georgia back in '08? Or turned Belarus into a puppet state? It's the exact same playbook they're using in Ukraine.
If it's really all about NATO, then I guess we should expect an invasion of Finland before they join. There isn't a second or third option here.

wiredseal7 said:Looks like there was some minor posturing between Russ and the US in the Ionian and Mediterranean Seas back in July—something our local news outlets didn't even bother to mention while they were busy obsessing over the war in Ukraine.

The article kicks off with 'Allegedly, on July 22nd, Russian vessels blocked the entrance/exit route from the Adriatic Sea...'

Andrew Booth29 said:Since Russian oil production has dipped slightly, all other things being equal, there’s no fundamental reason for oil prices to spike—it looks like everyone else just stepped in to fill the gap. That’s the crux of it. If everyone actually played by the rules regarding sanctions, Russian production would crater and prices would skyrocket. Instead, the suppliers have just rotated. The oil that India isn't grabbing because they're busy taking Russian supply is simply being picked up by Europe, which is trying to avoid the Russian stuff.
Though, one should probably account for the fact that the USA is tapping into its strategic reserves, along with a few other countries.
Russia might end up taking a much harder hit on gas since finding alternative buyers won't be easy—and frankly, so will Europe, given they'll be paying a premium for much more expensive gas.

The broader economic outlook plays a role here too—we're looking at slowing activity and the looming threat of a recession.

Nancy Lopez7 said:People are out there protesting about how those stubborn Ukrainians just won't stop fighting—and apparently, they think the "evil" West is just fueling the fire by backing them up.
🙂

I mean, seriously, why won't they just surrender to such a massive military force?

https://twitter.com/AnonOpsSE/status...htmode%3Dfalse

It feels like our neighbors haven't had much to say lately, hasn't it?

Does anyone have any intel on when things might finally wind down—any idea what's actually happening behind the scenes? 🍿

Where exactly is this protest happening?

Dana Robinson4 said:It wasn't really the Kremlin officials making those calls, but rather the optimists who truly believed we could actually isolate Russia from the global market...

But then you look at India and China, and they just don't seem to care one bit about your sanctions, do they?

Hard to say China doesn't care when Apple is pulling out of Russia.
The enthusiasts claimed we could isolate Russia from the West, and honestly, looks like that’s actually happening—directionally, it's the right move.