Posts by Nathan Thomas12

Kate Lewis3 said:If China plays this smart, they win regardless. If Russia comes out on top, they get cheap resources from Russia while the West is busy sanctioning everyone else. If Russia loses, they'll just go back to business as usual with the West, buying up whatever scraps are left after Russia gets torn apart. Everybody wins except the people on the ground.

Not exactly. The Chinese economy is tied directly to the West—if the West hits a recession, China goes down with the ship.
At the end of the day, if the West is doing well, China does too.

electricsurfer47 said:I don't know, I'm just not convinced that sanctions would hit China the same way they hit Russia.

You have to look at the bigger picture here.

We in Europe and America are incredibly dependent on Chinese products. So much of everything is made there. They already have all the manufacturing infrastructure set up, and they can produce stuff so cheaply.
If we slapped major sanctions on China, the little bit of production we have left in Europe and the US would skyrocket in price because the demand would be through the roof.

Look at places like Mexico, Canada, or India—they didn't jump in with sanctions, and instead, they seized the opportunity to get cheap gas because they were actually in a position to do that.

And what happens if we actually sanction China? Aren't we just making poorer countries stronger in the process?
Sanctions against China might just end up empowering Russia, because out of pure obstinacy, China will just pivot back to the Russian market. The same goes for North Korea and any other countries that aren't exactly on good terms with the West.
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I'm not a Russophile, nor am I some kind of China enthusiast, I just want to point out that there’s a limit to how far you can push sanctions before they backfire.

Yeah, sure, China will pivot to the Russian market out of pure Stubbornness—except that market is a third of the size of Japan's. It's like saying America is going to ditch the EU and The West to focus on the Albanian market and suddenly become a superpower. That's the level of logic we're dealing with here.
But let's stick to the actual facts. The Chinese economy is sitting on $35 trillion in debt, and they need constant growth just to keep up with principal and interest payments. If the US hits a recession soon, it's going to drag China down with it, regardless of who they decide to trade with.
Every country on the planet has thrived by using the dollar and trading with The West, including China. Long-term, The West can move manufacturing from China to somewhere like India, but China can't survive without access to Western markets. At the end of the day, China is still basically just a massive factory that copies technology.

wiredseal7 said:The A-10 is slow—Russian interceptors and air defenses would turn it into sitting duck territory—even if it is basically a flying tank and tough to take down.

The Su-25 is just better suited for this kind of mess:
https://theaviationgeekclub.com/su-2...rthog-for-cas/

If they get enough of them, sure, that's great—better than the dwindling number of Su-25s they're working with. But the real issue is the lack of trained pilots. What we're seeing here is just someone trying to train people on simulators, hoping they might actually get their hands on an A-10 one day...

In reality, Ukrainian planes are running air strikes around Kherson, while Bayraktars are still causing chaos everywhere. If there's one thing to actually worry about, it's Russian air defenses.
Basically, a global superpower is being relegated to second place in Ukraine.

Joshua Bishop3 said:Oh man, please don't make me laugh, seriously, hahaha!

Crimea belongs to Ukraine, plain and simple, just like Donbas and Luhansk. Almost nobody on this planet actually recognizes the annexation of Crimea. Putin can claim whatever he wants—he can sit there thinking Russian Alaska is actually Russian or that half the world belongs to him for all I care, but you can basically tell him to go jump in a lake regarding his little delusions. 😁

The Russians aren't going to use tactical nukes or any other kind of nuclear weapons, because let's be real—if even a tiny bit of radiation drifts toward a single NATO member, NATO is going to treat that as a full-blown nuclear strike. They said as much right at the start of the Russian aggression against Ukraine. If a nuclear war actually breaks out, Russia will just be a scorched wasteland that ceases to exist. The population of the "collective West" is way more spread out than the Russians, most of whom are crammed around Moscow and in Western Russia anyway.

Russ doesn't have the guts to start a nuclear war because, newsflash, they’d cease to exist. It's just like how they were blustering about Crimea being part of the RF and threatening to drop nukes if even one shell hit the place, yet they won't touch nukes if Ukraine liberates Crimea. They're getting bombed in Crimea constantly, they've lost half their aviation there, and the Russians are scurrying away like cowards, just moving what's left of their planes back into Russia. Hahahahaha!

Taking Crimea militarily is going to be surprisingly easy. But looking at how things are playing out, the Russians might just hand it over as a gesture of good faith.

They’ll only drop the nukes if their very existence as a state is threatened. That's a broad term, but an attack on Crimea is a hard sell when you're trying to argue it threatens the survival of Russia.

Joshua Myers432 said:Taking back Crimea militarily would be an absolute nightmare. Honestly, I get the feeling even a broken-down US military could hold that ground. Take a look at the map and tell me which way you'd even approach. Even if we ignore the fact that it's part of the Russian Federation, the Russians will defend it with everything they've got—and we all know how that ends.

Sure, someone might argue that Crimea hasn't even been part of the Russian Federation for ten years, but by that logic, China could make similar claims about parts of Siberia. What does that change regarding their status within the Russian Federation? If the Putin regime collapses and a pro-Western government takes over, it might go back to Ukraine. Otherwise, things are going to get ugly.🕺

Yeah, looks like Crimea can only be handed back through negotiations, not on a battlefield.
The sanctions will probably stick around until that actually happens, too.

wiredseal7 said:What do I care about Russian troubles or this whole war, other than sharing the fate of the people "on this side" via my heating bill?☕

This guy is a joke. No, he didn't say it (which I wasn't claiming either), but his whole map is a mess. Wide Ukrainian arrows crossing the Oskil river? Liman without Russians? You have to agree that doesn't match what's actually happening on the ground.

Russia pulled a brutal blitz offensive that worked because it was fast—but they're finding their footing now and, logically, they've dug in at the river as a defensive line.
If it's hard for the Russians to move large troop numbers into Kherson, the same laws of physics apply to the Ukrainian troops at the Oskil river—which, let's be real, is wide and exposed.

A purely civilian role, not even a government position, and they attempt an assassination?
The Ukrainians have really leaned into terrorism—very Mossad-style.

The real question is whether collaborators in civilian roles count as legitimate targets. Look at it this way: if an invading nation occupies your country and installs one of their puppets to run a local corporation, is that person fair game? It’s ridiculous to argue it's "just a civilian job." If it were truly just a private role, the White House wouldn't be picking who gets the position in a foreign country.

If the USA and the UK signed the Budapest Memorandum along with Ukraine and Russia—basically promising not to invade and to respect Ukraine's borders in exchange for ditching nukes—then what’s even the point of international treaties? If both the USA and the UK are breaking them by failing to actually guarantee territorial integrity, the whole thing feels pretty hollow.
France and China gave their nod in a separate document, so they basically pulled the same shady move.

Joshua Myers432 said:Russia is facing a binary choice: they either call up a massive mobilization or they pull out of Ukraine entirely. You simply cannot sustain a war against a nation of 40 million people that is being backed by NATO and bolstered by expeditionary forces. Sure, the Russians have plenty of manpower sitting in reserve, but the real question is whether they actually have the stomach to commit to a total war.

The real question here is whether Russia actually considers Crimea their territory, or if this whole thing is just one massive bluff.

That’s just heavy sci-fi. Honestly, the idea that any of these countries would actually screw up that badly seems totally unbelievable to me.

Right, and how far is Hiroshima from Geneva? I'd say at least ten times further than, say, Dresden. This war is nowhere near that stage yet, and besides, I'm not even sure if a power plant counts as a legitimate civilian target.

It also blows my mind that Ukraine—which emerged from the USSR as a massive, vital republic—doesn't have a single missile system capable of reaching Moscow.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Buda...ity_Assurances
Ukraine signed an agreement guaranteeing their territorial integrity—back then, they didn't feel threatened from any direction, so there wasn't much point in maintaining a massive military.
The bottom line? Never trust a Russian.

Joshua Myers432 said:Infrastructure gets leveled in war; that isn't some unique Russian invention. I guess after six months they realized nobody was hanging flower boxes on their balconies anymore, so now they'll move on to leveling bridges, power plants, factories, airports, and rail lines. Just the usual routine.

Targeting civilian infrastructure is a straight-up violation of the Geneva Conventions. Honestly, I wouldn't be surprised if those ATACMS strikes leave everything within 300 kilometers of the border without power or water. For context, Moscow is about 450 kilometers from the border.

Kate Lewis3 said:Luckily for the Ukrainians, they already finished their own privatization process, so it might be harder for people to spin the narrative that outsiders forced them into a war with Russia just to grab their companies.

The absolute worst-case scenario for Ukraine—on top of all the destruction caused by Russian aggression—is joining the European Union, where the "old guard" members will likely try to protect their own turf by crushing any Ukrainian industry that actually poses a threat to their dominance.

Europe actually needs Ukrainian heavy industry. Ukraine has this labor-intensive heavy sector that doesn't pack much high-end value but requires massive amounts of manpower. Meanwhile, Western nations lean on capital-intensive industries loaded with robotics and automation to churn out high-margin products.

Timothy Nelson5 said:I don't know exactly what kind of pressure we're talking about here, but I guess it’s about more than just oil and gas pipelines.

Defeats of this magnitude... they tend to rattle the political establishment in Moscow. It makes things like internal power struggles or even a coup feel like actual possibilities, I suppose.

People seem to naively think some well-meaning democracy lover will just step in to replace Vladimir, but honestly, many—maybe even most—of his loudest critics are actually more radical than he is.

And even that might not be the worst-case scenario. The real nightmare, maybe, is Russia completely fracturing. You could end up with total chaos where various radical nationalists seize entire regions and start waving nuclear arsenals around their territory. That’s a scary thought.

At the same time, I think Ukrainians need to realize that, eventually, some kind of peace agreement is going to be necessary. Another few years of this war is going to cost far too many lives and resources.
It doesn't have to be any specific deal, but at some point, things just have to be settled one way or another.

if that happens, some new guy could just declare war and call for total mobilization overnight.

Kate Lewis3 said:In theory, yeah. But America is losing a massive amount of talent here—everything from skilled tradespeople to top-tier engineers. So, joining the European Union actually leaves the US in a deficit.

I can't remember the exact figure, but I think some Germans calculated that the total investment society makes in a single person who earns an engineering degree is about a million dollars. That includes everything from birth through graduation—you know, parents paying for food and raising them, local communities providing daycare and schools, all the way up to the government footing the bill for college. It adds up fast.

Spot on. But the exodus of talent isn't the root problem—it's the symptom. The actual cause is the systematic looting and gutting of the country over the two decades leading up to joining the European Union. If this place had been managed with any sense of patriotism, our standard of living would be way higher, and people wouldn't feel the need to pack their bags and leave.
Plus, during that last big recession before we integrated into the EU, the government showed zero empathy for anyone struggling. The crisis absolutely wrecked the construction sector and hit pretty much everyone else too. Instead of getting a break or a moratorium on payments while they looked for work, people just lost their jobs and then lost their homes.

Andrew Miller102 said:Let it move, I suppose, though if I were writing this earlier, I’d have suggested waiting at least a month so we don't end up looking like a cow acting like a donkey.

It’s a fair point to make, considering tactical retreats are a legitimate part of military strategy designed to set up future maneuvers.

https://twitter.com/KingKong9888/sta...38916382818305

There is a very logical reason why the Russians are relentlessly pounding Cleveland, which stands as the second largest city in Ukraine. The Russian border isn't exactly a distant thing, so we'll just have to wait and see how things develop. Generally speaking, my assessment is that there won't be any peace in that region—meaning all of Ukraine—for years to come; there will be massive problems. Peace is a relic of the past, much like the situation before 2014, or perhaps it will eventually resemble the Israel vs Palestinian situation where conflict is constant.

There is a significant chance that the Russians will eventually declare a classic war against Ukraine. Right now, they call it a "special operation," but once a state of war is officially declared, the entire dynamic shifts. In reality, the Russians aren't just fighting Ukraine; they are effectively at odds with everyone providing weapons to Ukrainians.

It is also worth noting that plenty of people believe World War III actually began with the Russian onslaught on Ukraine. I find myself agreeing with that assessment, and we will simply have to wait and see how it all unfolds in the end.☕

Every single time the USA picks a fight, Russia steps in to arm and back the other side. Does that mean Russia and the Americans have been at war at least ten times already?!

Nancy Howard4 said:It’s not pro-Russian, it’s pro-Canadian; they’re just looking out for their own people's interests, unlike that crew in Brussels who seems stuck in that "eat cake, ladies" mindset.
Or like when you remember that idiot Johnson's comment after some old lady told him she was riding the bus just to stay warm because she couldn't afford gas due to prices in England, and Boris basically goes, "Well, I ORDERED that drivers shouldn't kick you off so you can stay warm."😁

The European Union is never going to stick its nose into stuff like that—we're on our own, just like if we decided to sell off the entire coastline to the Italians right now; nobody from Brussels would step in and tell us if it's actually a smart move.
They don't give a damn what we do with our own resources as long as we keep paying our "membership fees."

Europe finally showed some unity after a long time, and all thanks to Putin.
Yeah, we pay dues, but we pull way more out than we put in. Just look at our cities and how much infrastructure has been built thanks to those funds.

feralnomad35 said:I hear you, but honestly, we aren't facing a 50% shortage; it’s more like 10%. It feels like this whole thing has been blown way out of proportion. Part of it is probably just the Russians pumping up the fear because they see it as their one big lifeline, and part of it is just vultures—you know, journalists and speculators making a killing off the volatility on the exchanges. Sure, things are tight and we definitely need to adjust how we live, but we aren't staring down some kind of total apocalypse here.

And if you look at the long game, I don't see why production costs in Africa wouldn't be competitive with Russia—if anything, they might even end up being lower.

At the end of the day, this whole era of energy blackmail really needs to come to an end.

Back between 2010 and 2012, massive amounts of oil and gas were discovered in the Donbas and near Crimea, which led to Shell signing a $10 billion deal with Ukraine by 2013. The long-term play was supposed to be up to $50 billion.
If they can kick the Russians out, Ukraine becomes a major source for oil and gas in the long run.

Jessica Peterson2 said:It’s not like they’re Taliban militants or anything; they aren't exactly being welcomed with open arms in Germany or France either. 🤷
The Baltic States are part of the European Union, so Russians can't just wander in whenever they feel like it without a Schengen visa or applying for some kind of temporary or permanent residency permit.
As for the rest of those former Soviet states, the people moving there tend to be less wealthy and less educated; most of them are fleeing Russia because they can't stomach Putin's regime. You don't see people flocking to Georgia or Armenia just to immediately sign up for unemployment benefits, let alone wandering around Yerevan sporting a "Z" symbol or a shirt featuring Putin's face.

Sure, they're probably wealthier, but give it 50 years and Russian imperialist policy might be back on the menu. New generations could end up begging to rejoin Mother Russia. That’s the constant risk when you let them in.

Joshua Myers432 said:True, but the reverse holds weight too. They think the "common sense" logic they employ (the East) is fundamentally different from what Western nations use.

I still maintain they hold the upper hand here; in scenarios like this, dictatorial regimes always have an advantage over "democracy," if you can even call our system that.

Do you honestly think another Putin would just sit back and let 70,000 people protest in Moscow, like they might in Prague? Realistically, if 70,000 gathered in Prague, it would be closer to 400,000 in Moscow!

Time will tell, but sure, this dictator might be winning in the short term—he isn't in the long run. That's why we can't back off on sanctions just because we're scared of a recession, especially since that'll drag China into the slump too. Long-term, a dictator just can't beat a democratic society—it's never happened.

Joshua Myers432 said:Sanctions are having a negligible impact because Russia has been prepping for this exact scenario since 2014. These sanctions were slapped on haphazardly, an ad hoc mess implemented week by week without any real strategic analysis. Honestly, the only thing stupider than these sanctions was the Russian assumption that they’d march into Ukraine to flower receptions.

That notion of a "critical mass" rising up to overthrow Putin is pure Western delusion; it has nothing to do with the reality on the ground in Russia. They are under total, Stalinist-style propaganda control. Nobody is going to take him down.

Now we're stuck in a stalemate. Everyone is dependent on everyone else, trapped in a war where nobody can actually win. Americans and the Chinese are just sitting back, profiting while you people deal with the fallout...

If they're so weak, why aren't the Russians just cranking up the gas supply until those sanctions get lifted?

Joshua Myers432 said:I filled up my tank yesterday. Now I'm sitting at 100%. Just great. 🎉 Hopefully, this will hold up for at least three months.

Look, I get it—you're bummed about having too much stock piled up.

swiftjackal11 said:It just doesn't make sense to me. In the middle of a war, Europe is trying to stick to rules made during peacetime. They're using coal and nuclear plants—suddenly, pollution concerns aren't the top priority anymore.

Desperate times require desperate measures!